Analysis

[leyton11]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

Yep, bullish if true.

There are however plenty of bulls in my feed, more than a few of whom are planning out the next parabolic bubble. Swap interest has remained positive for quite a while so Bitmex traders aren't heavily shorting. Bitfinex BTC short levels are low and still dropping, longs dropping too though. ETH longs are very high.

Sentiment seems mixed at best, and probably actually bullish.

Yes, I still have a medium to long-term bullish view. because there's no reason for the price of crypto to go down. Although the disease was still there, the stocks were still skyrocketing in the US. That shows that big investors are sniffing the potential of financial market in the future. I think if I just buy ETH now and hold it for 1 year, our profits could be double.

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[chunglam]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

[Wind_FURY]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

I believe that last "triangle" that looks like this current "triangle" was the forerunner of a crash that went to $5,000.

Be ready? Buy the dip, and HODL?

[Majormax]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

If there is a breakout to 11k+ that would be the first bullish sign. 14k cleared would negate the bear trend. An alternative likely scenario is a breakdown towards 6500, which should hold for at least the rest of the year, to build proper support.

As far as consensus goes, yes, I feel the bulls are most hopeful atm, but that could be changed by a decent breakdown from here, as the hopes of 10k+ are very strong.

[JayJuanGee]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

This kitty cat is not worried, because he knows that resistance looks strong until it is not, then the kitty cat ends up laughing all the way to the bank (as has happened several times previously.. and no real reason to believe that history is not going to come close to repeating itself in some kind of financially meaningful way).  We have seen such doom and gloom fearing of resistance scenarios play out many times in bitcoinlandia...  so should HODLers be taking any chances to NOT making sure that they are adequately stacked, stocked and ready for UP?

If there is a breakout to 11k+ that would be the first bullish sign.

What are the odds of breaking above $11k on this particular run?  Maybe in your more bearish view you put the odds at less than 35%, and I might be approaching the 40% arena because I am more bullish, but still the difference in our outlook might not be very different, and hopefully our actions (of stacking and stocking up) are not much different, either... but I conjecture that both you (and people who follow your doom and gloom pronouncements) might end up erring too much in terms of failing and refusing to materially and sufficiently act in the stacking and stocking up direction.. just in case.   

14k cleared would negate the bear trend.

After $14k-ish, I am expecting some resistance in the $17k to $17.3k arena... but gosh, who knows in bitcoin?  Do you have a next resistance level that you are considering above $14k-ish?

An alternative likely scenario is a breakdown towards 6500, which should hold for at least the rest of the year, to build proper support.

I could see that... but of course, going down that far could also lead to a certain number of attempts at strong challenges to support.. but surely $6.5k is more than reasonable as a tentative assertion of a likely bottom for the coming 7 months or so.

As far as consensus goes, yes, I feel the bulls are most hopeful atm, but that could be changed by a decent breakdown from here, as the hopes of 10k+ are very strong.

I can see that, too... hahahahahaaha  Even though we have been largely bouncing in the lower to mid $9ks in the past 10 days or so, this battle is really likely to be trying to keep BTC prices sufficiently below $10k in order that retail does not start to FOMO buy too much in the event that we get too close to $10k, again... so sure, we will see... we will see.. nail biting.. and even difficult to say how long BTC prices can be kept in this range.. and like I said in several other posts in the past couple of weeks, I am not going to get too excited about any BTC prices that bounce between about $7,800 and $10,200... even though when the BTC price gets close to either end of the range, sure, I might start getting excited, even though I said that I wasn't going to .... call me a liar, if you will....   

[exstasie]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

Yep, it's beginning to show the hallmarks of a triangle. Until the D wave is confirmed, $10K and $8.6K are the crucial pivots to break. Coincidentally, that's exactly where the daily upper and lower BBs are, respectively.

Get ready for a very powerful move within the next week or so!

Sentiment is feeling a little too bullish: Bitfinex shorts are dropping and already low, longs are rising, and generally there seems to be strong expectations for breaking $10K. On the other hand you might call it a bullish triangle given that it's a sideways consolidation following a larger uptrend. Furthermore the weekly and monthly uptrends still look quite strong. As I said in my thread I'm pretty neutral, somewhere on the spectrum of 60/40 bullish to 50/50.

At least the breakout range is getting tighter and tighter.

[JayJuanGee]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

Yep, it's beginning to show the hallmarks of a triangle. Until the D wave is confirmed, $10K and $8.6K are the crucial pivots to break. Coincidentally, that's exactly where the daily upper and lower BBs are, respectively.

Get ready for a very powerful move within the next week or so!

Sentiment is feeling a little too bullish: Bitfinex shorts are dropping and already low, longs are rising, and generally there seems to be strong expectations for breaking $10K. On the other hand you might call it a bullish triangle given that it's a sideways consolidation following a larger uptrend. Furthermore the weekly and monthly uptrends still look quite strong. As I said in my thread I'm pretty neutral, somewhere on the spectrum of 60/40 bullish to 50/50.

At least the breakout range is getting tighter and tighter.

Yeah.. its going to break up all the way to $9,900, and then it will break back down all the way to $8,200, which ends up being a BIG SO WHAT.  At least for me.  But hey, not like any of this can be rushed unless someone might have an extra $50million lying around to try to prod matters, and that might not even be enough.

[Wind_FURY]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

This kitty cat is not worried, because he knows that resistance looks strong until it is not, then the kitty cat ends up laughing all the way to the bank (as has happened several times previously.. and no real reason to believe that history is not going to come close to repeating itself in some kind of financially meaningful way).  We have seen such doom and gloom fearing of resistance scenarios play out many times in bitcoinlandia...  so should HODLers be taking any chances to NOT making sure that they are adequately stacked, stocked and ready for UP

NO, the smart HODLers SHOULD have bought the dip already, and ARE stacked, stocked, and ready.

I don't know honestly how I can continue buying the dip though under $10,000, it might be the last one. COVID-19 changed my monthly budget.

[Bossian]

Looks like we will again get rejected at 10.5k?

Or... go to 11.9k because there is a CME gap at this price?   previous gap at 9.8k was filled, so you never know, 11.9k could be achieved before filling another gap at a much lower price, 3.5k   would mean 12k is the top for 2020 even though I am still confident we will not get past 10.5k, could be wrong though, wait and see.

[chunglam]

masterluc new comment: (2/6/20)

Trade closed: target reached: The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high.

This is a start of long term bull run. It probably will take around 4 years. After that world will see 10 years of bearish activity.

[cAPSLOCK]

Aaaaand...

[exstasie]

The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high.

This is a start of long term bull run. It probably will take around 4 years. After that world will see 10 years of bearish activity.

He spoke prematurely. This is why I focus on horizontal resistance (monthly, yearly pivots at $10.5K) rather than trend lines. Trend line breaks are not reliable. Pivot breaks are everything. Here's a look at that short term triangle. Breakout failed:



I still agree with his long term idea that we are near the end of a Historical Wave IV. It could still be months before it's complete though.

[gentlemand]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go 

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder. 

[drays]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go  

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder.  

Weird indeed. Do you have an idea on what is the reason behind this craziness (I mean - both S&P nehavior, and BTC moving in sync with stock markets)? I know there are many explanations around, but I am interested in something convincing enough for you.

[gentlemand]

Weird indeed. Do you have an idea on what the reason behind this craziness (I mean - both S&P nehavior, and BTC moving in sync with stock markets)? I know there are many explanations around, but I am interested in something convincing enough for you.

No idea. Because people have collectively decided it's something they want to happen?

Enough banks and governments have now signalled they're willing to do anything to keep the fun flowing so perhaps traders have taken that as a signal that no matter what happens they're going to have their arses covered so they're going to continue piling in. Whether that's how it pans out is another matter but that's possibly the feeling at present.

As for BTC and stock markets, that comes and goes. I dunno if I've ever seen anything to fully convince they're closely related over long periods of time but they certainly have moments.

[drays]

Weird indeed. Do you have an idea on what the reason behind this craziness (I mean - both S&P nehavior, and BTC moving in sync with stock markets)? I know there are many explanations around, but I am interested in something convincing enough for you.

No idea. Because people have collectively decided it's something they want to happen?

Enough banks and governments have now signalled they're willing to do anything to keep the fun flowing so perhaps traders have taken that as a signal that no matter what happens they're going to have their arses covered so they're going to continue piling in. Whether that's how it pans out is another matter but that's possibly the feeling at present.

As for BTC and stock markets, that comes and goes. I dunno if I've ever seen anything to fully convince they're closely related over long periods of time but they certainly have moments.

To be honest, being a techie grown in a part of the world where free markets are just non-existent, I have very limited understanding of free markets and economics in general But am trying to wrap my head around few things...
Specifically, I am trying to figure out what could happen if

1) the real economy continues to struggle (due to decreased demand for services and unnecessary goods, or just because people are scared and their spending habits change in direction of more careful planning, or for whatever other reason);

2) governments go overboard with doing everything to keep markets growing; not sure what are the methods; maybe
(a) injecting money into businesses;
(b) buying stocks;
(c) giving no-interest or even negative-interest loans;
(d) sending helicopter 'stimulus' money to regular people (basically those are no-return loans);
(e) whatever else - I am not sure what, but would appreciate if someone adds more methods to this list, so we understand what else could governments do next.

So if this (1)+(2) situation continues and gets to the point where there is a big gap between "where the free stock markets should be" and "where they are", what could happen next? I suppose reality cannot be ignored for infinitely long time. So what this could resolve into? Collapse of markets? Collapse of banks? Collapse of governments? Collapse of currencies? Nothing at all, business as usual?

[Vectra]

I don't care much about stocks being mental, but I don't like bitcoin being so correlated with them at this particular moment.

[exstasie]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go  

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder.  

It's hard to argue with $6 trillion being injected by the Fed and $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus by the Treasury. This whole experience taught me that these markets bow only to liquidity, fundamentals be damned.

With the House having passed another $3 trillion bill a couple weeks ago and the White House giving the nod to $2 trillion+, it's interesting to see the S&P 500 down 9% in 8 days. I wonder if we're setting up for mini version of the March crash (in which case look out below, BTC holders) with a similar rebound to come after that next stimulus bill is passed.

[drays]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

[exstasie]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

You're definitely onto something. Online brokers like Robinhood, E-Trade, and TD Ameritrade are all reporting a flood of retail investors into the stock market the past couple months. One notable demographic has been sports bettors. Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports has turned his massive sports betting audience into a pump-and-dump army.

Barstool's Dave Portnoy leads army of new traders into stock market

Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors Wager on Stocks

Millions of small-time investors have opened trading accounts in recent months, a flood of new buyers unlike anything the market had seen in years, just as lockdown orders halted entire sectors of the economy and sent unemployment soaring.

It’s not clear how many of the new arrivals are sports bettors, but some are behaving like aggressive gamblers. There has been a jump in small bets in the stock options market, where wagers on the direction of share prices can produce thrilling scores and gut-wrenching losses. And transactions that make little economic sense, like buying up the nearly valueless shares of bankrupt companies, are off the charts.

Even with modest investments, these newcomers can move stock prices, which are typically set by just a sliver of shareholders. On most days, the overwhelming majority of stock investors do nothing, while the buyers and sellers establish the prices. So even a small influx of hyperactive speculators can have a significant effect.

TD Ameritrade reported a record 608,000 new funded accounts during the first quarter, more than triple last year’s pace. Schwab set a record, too, with 609,000 — including 280,000 in March alone. E-Trade had 363,000 new accounts, more than double the same period last year and another record. And in early May, Robinhood said it had added more than three million accounts this year.

There has been a surge in small investors using option trades to make pure win-or-lose bets on where stock prices will be at a specific time, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, an asset management firm.

“That’s another sign that it’s these gamblers,” he said.

So what happens when sports come back in earnest? MLB, NFL, and so on? Analysts say these retail investors and sports bettors are big enough to move the markets. When sports come back, will they dump and leave? Will that be a bearish force in the market?