Analysis

[bitmover]

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 by "intact" you mean those 4 totally different charts per cycle?
There is clearly a pattern of them being less and less similar.

If you are expecting a totally different one in the next cyle, yes i agree.
Not even Debatable. All of them are completely different.

I wouldn't even be surprised that in the next cycle or the other we wont even reach an ath

[Wind_FURY]

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 by "intact" you mean those 4 totally different charts per cycle?
There is clearly a pattern of them being less and less similar.

If you are expecting a totally different one in the next cyle, yes i agree.
Not even Debatable. All of them are completely different.

I wouldn't even be surprised that in the next cycle or the other we wont even reach an ath

Different charts?

 

That's LITERALLY ONE chart, ser. I'm not actually sure how you could gaslight anyone into believing that's "four different" charts.

But OK, you do you.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[cAPSLOCK]

Although you "may" be right, BUT currently, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is STILL INTACT. Why make decisions because you "believe" that you're absolutely right and the market is wrong, or you "feel" that something different is going to happen?

That's how "investors" lose their precious capital.

Cylces are not "intact".
We had for the first time an ATH before the halving. The bear market started earlier than expected (in October).

A MINOR difference of one or two months does NOT make the Cycle broken. I would be the first person to say that the Cycle is broken IF the bear market continues throughout Q2/Q3 2027, OR if a surge to another All Time High happens this year.

In the current state of the Cycle, we might see the actual bottom in October or November.

That is a minor difference looking backwards.

If you are expecting the price to continue to grow for 4 more months and it collapses before that,  you lose money.  That is what happened last cycle

We have a saying in Brazil for this:
All the winning numbers of a winning lottery ticket looks  easy on Monday  

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If we boil it down to a binary reality.  And we do not define the parameters of the cycle too tightly.

But it is seemingly changing.  At least amplitude.  And we do not really have enough data for THIS cycle to be conclusive IMHO.  Not to mention that the sample size for the whole thing is 3.75.

Would you agree that for the cycle to be still valid we will need a bigger capitulation than we have seen so far?  Your image does not show that red box.

I HAVE to admit I am quite surprised it has seemingly held on this long.  I thought the institutional analysts would have it figured out and somehow counter trade it which would cause it to begin to disappear.

I also would think the effects of institutional shenanigans would overshadow anything the actual cycle forces could muster.  And indeed that may be part of what is damping the amplitude...

[bitmover]

Different charts?

That's LITERALLY ONE chart, ser. I'm not actually sure how you could gaslight anyone into believing that's "four different" charts.

But OK, you do you.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Well  there are clearly 4 different "patterns" or whatever for each cycle. This is what I called charts.

But when you see you are wrong and all cycles are different  and not "intact" you prefer to discuss English words

Ok, believe whatever you wish . It is your money.
Cycles are "intact".

[Wind_FURY]

Different charts?

That's LITERALLY ONE chart, ser. I'm not actually sure how you could gaslight anyone into believing that's "four different" charts.

But OK, you do you.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Well  there are clearly 4 different "patterns" or whatever for each cycle. This is what I called charts.

But when you see you are wrong and all cycles are different  and not "intact" you prefer to discuss English words

Ok, believe whatever you wish . It is your money.
Cycles are "intact".

Because it actually STILL is INTACT. If the next bottom of the current Bear Cycle is two to three months away from October/November this year, then I'll be the first person to say that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle isn't intact anymore.

Let's wait, and return to this topic.

 

[Tzupy]

Latest from Bitcoin Beavers:

Here we have a weekly MA200, the lower curve of the Rainbow Chart, and, I think, the lower weekly BB. Massive support. It's not going to go any lower.
Oh, and the monthly lower Bollinger band is here... Come on, come on, who's looking for the new guy?

[Wind_FURY]

Latest from Bitcoin Beavers:

Here we have a weekly MA200, the lower curve of the Rainbow Chart, and, I think, the lower weekly BB. Massive support. It's not going to go any lower.
Oh, and the monthly lower Bollinger band is here... Come on, come on, who's looking for the new guy?

 🤔

We don't make the biggest investment mistakes because something very unexpected has happened. But we make the biggest investment mistakes because we're very sure that "something" is not going to happen.

I'll remain with the Four-Year-Cycle until it's invalidated.

[kellrobinson]

I'll stick with the 210,000 block cycle

[okorieemmanuel]

Although you "may" be right, BUT currently, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is STILL INTACT. Why make decisions because you "believe" that you're absolutely right and the market is wrong, or you "feel" that something different is going to happen?

That's how "investors" lose their precious capital.

Cylces are not "intact".
We had for the first time an ATH before the halving. The bear market started earlier than expected (in October).

A MINOR difference of one or two months does NOT make the Cycle broken. I would be the first person to say that the Cycle is broken IF the bear market continues throughout Q2/Q3 2027, OR if a surge to another All Time High happens this year.

In the current state of the Cycle, we might see the actual bottom in October or November.

That is a minor difference looking backwards.

If you are expecting the price to continue to grow for 4 more months and it collapses before that,  you lose money.  That is what happened last cycle

We have a saying in Brazil for this:
All the winning numbers of a winning lottery ticket looks  easy on Monday  

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If we boil it down to a binary reality.  And we do not define the parameters of the cycle too tightly.

But it is seemingly changing.  At least amplitude.  And we do not really have enough data for THIS cycle to be conclusive IMHO.  Not to mention that the sample size for the whole thing is 3.75.

Would you agree that for the cycle to be still valid we will need a bigger capitulation than we have seen so far?  Your image does not show that red box.

I HAVE to admit I am quite surprised it has seemingly held on this long.  I thought the institutional analysts would have it figured out and somehow counter trade it which would cause it to begin to disappear.

I also would think the effects of institutional shenanigans would overshadow anything the actual cycle forces could muster.  And indeed that may be part of what is damping the amplitude...

Thank God you mentioned that this data is not complete. Else your predictions may be scary for me decipher without being sentimental. Let's add all the facts first before throwing figures on the table please.

[Wind_FURY]

Although you "may" be right, BUT currently, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is STILL INTACT. Why make decisions because you "believe" that you're absolutely right and the market is wrong, or you "feel" that something different is going to happen?

That's how "investors" lose their precious capital.

Cylces are not "intact".
We had for the first time an ATH before the halving. The bear market started earlier than expected (in October).

A MINOR difference of one or two months does NOT make the Cycle broken. I would be the first person to say that the Cycle is broken IF the bear market continues throughout Q2/Q3 2027, OR if a surge to another All Time High happens this year.

In the current state of the Cycle, we might see the actual bottom in October or November.

That is a minor difference looking backwards.

If you are expecting the price to continue to grow for 4 more months and it collapses before that,  you lose money.  That is what happened last cycle

We have a saying in Brazil for this:
All the winning numbers of a winning lottery ticket looks  easy on Monday  

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If we boil it down to a binary reality.  And we do not define the parameters of the cycle too tightly.

But it is seemingly changing.  At least amplitude.  And we do not really have enough data for THIS cycle to be conclusive IMHO.  Not to mention that the sample size for the whole thing is 3.75.

Would you agree that for the cycle to be still valid we will need a bigger capitulation than we have seen so far?  Your image does not show that red box.

I HAVE to admit I am quite surprised it has seemingly held on this long.  I thought the institutional analysts would have it figured out and somehow counter trade it which would cause it to begin to disappear.

I also would think the effects of institutional shenanigans would overshadow anything the actual cycle forces could muster.  And indeed that may be part of what is damping the amplitude...

Thank God you mentioned that this data is not complete. Else your predictions may be scary for me decipher without being sentimental. Let's add all the facts first before throwing figures on the table please.

The data is not complete because it's still being made through the completion of the Bear Cycle, which if the Four-Year-Cycle is still intact, then "the bottom" will be in October/November, 2026. IF it's NOT intact, then probably the bottom already happened OR we'll probably experience a longer Bear Cycle and lower bottom than what we'll see in October/November, no?

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[bitmover]

The data is not complete because it's still being made through the completion of the Bear Cycle, which if the Four-Year-Cycle is still intact, then "the bottom" will be in October/November, 2026. IF it's NOT intact, then probably the bottom already happened OR we'll probably experience a longer Bear Cycle and lower bottom than what we'll see in October/November, no?

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I found this chart which reminded me of this topic

Lets see how will this cycle go



@JayJuanGee  I also liked their idea about the 200-WMA and the bear market (30 days below 200-WMA)

[JayJuanGee]

The data is not complete because it's still being made through the completion of the Bear Cycle, which if the Four-Year-Cycle is still intact, then "the bottom" will be in October/November, 2026. IF it's NOT intact, then probably the bottom already happened OR we'll probably experience a longer Bear Cycle and lower bottom than what we'll see in October/November, no?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I found this chart which reminded me of this topic
Lets see how will this cycle go

@JayJuanGee  I also liked their idea about the 200-WMA and the bear market (30 days below 200-WMA)

That above chart only seems to refer to the 200-DMA - so they must have another chart referring to the 200-WMA.

For sure the 200-day moving average and the 200-week moving average are two different beasts.

And even though each of the indicators can have their attributes in regards to trying to figure out when a bottom might be "in," at the same time, by nature the 200-WMA has quite a bit of long term implications since the BTC price has not tended (so far in bitcoin's history) tended to spend a whole hell of a lot of time below it.. and of course, we cannot even be sure in regards to the extent that history will or will not repeat itself or even how long any dip (or cycle) might play out or if aspects of the cycle (whether the peaks or the troughs) are in-sync or out-of-sync with past patterns. 

For sure, since bitcoin has been growing and even we might claim that the kinds of attacks upon it (if we label them as attacks) vary, every cycle has been different, yet we cannot even be sure how to overlay the current cycle over the prior cycles until after they happened... even though many times, guys want to proclaim guru status in terms of trying to play their bitcoin holdings.

Of course, it seems that when we are within 25% of the 200-WMA, in either direction, we likely are more in a buying and/or holding location rather than a selling location, yet if guys do not have any bitcoin, they have to stock up first, and when guys have a lot of bitcoin (perhaps more than enough bitcoin?), they could still be engaging in time-based sustainable withdrawal, even when prices are seeming to be relatively low.

Also, as we know the 200-WMA has been slowly and ongoingly crawling upwards, so even if we might proclaim that since about early February, the BTC price has been within 25% of the 200-WMA, the BTC price has continued to stay pretty close to the 200-WMA since that early February price drop, and maybe at most we had around 4.5% below the 200-WMA around June 29, so yeah, so far the 200-WMA has been pretty resilient in terms of serving as support, and even though there is so much ongoing chaos in the world (and internal battles regarding BIP 110) it is difficult to imagine too many scenarios in which the bitcoin price drops greatly below the 200-WMA and stays there for several months, like what happened in 2022, and yeah our whole beating around the 200-WMA bush for 2022 to 2023 played out for right around 16 months in total from June 2022 to October 2023.

I don't proclaim guru status, even though there tends to be some value in considering how difficult it seems to be to really get the bitcoin price to come down to the 200-WMA and to stay down here for long periods of time, and so it seems a bit outrageous that guys are expecting BTC prices way below the 200-WMA - even greater than 35% below the 200-WMA, which would be $41k territories.

And, by the way, weren't you (@bitmover) working on some tweaks to a new fuck you status page/tool that we might be able to agree to go public with? or maybe I missed some of the latests tweaks to such new tool that might be in my court...

Many of us likely realize that when the BTC prices are depressed (like currently), then guys are not really thinking about fuck you status as frequently and obsessively as when BTC prices start to recover and then when the BTC prices start to move up, then guys start to more frequently imagine ways in which they might be able to quit their jobs and fuel their current lifestyles (or their future fantasy lifestyles) with the bounds of their current bitcoin holdings and/or their future anticipated bitcoin holdings.

[Wind_FURY]

The data is not complete because it's still being made through the completion of the Bear Cycle, which if the Four-Year-Cycle is still intact, then "the bottom" will be in October/November, 2026. IF it's NOT intact, then probably the bottom already happened OR we'll probably experience a longer Bear Cycle and lower bottom than what we'll see in October/November, no?

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I found this chart which reminded me of this topic

Lets see how will this cycle go

There's merely three/four more months until October/November. Although buying NOW is good because Bitcoin is currently trading near its 200-Weekly SMA Line, another drawdown would be another Golden Opportunity for many plebs IF the Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

 

[bitmover]

That above chart only seems to refer to the 200-DMA - so they must have another chart referring to the 200-WMA.

Sorry, i made a confusion, it is 200-DMA not WMA.

But their idea to consider bearmarket any period where the price is below 200DMA for more than 30 days is an interesting concept, that can be adapted to the 200WMA.

The withdrawal strategy already consider such period as a 0% withdrawal allowance, but using different calculations.

And, by the way, weren't you (@bitmover) working on some tweaks to a new fuck you status page/tool that we might be able to agree to go public with? or maybe I missed some of the latests tweaks to such new tool that might be in my court...

Many of us likely realize that when the BTC prices are depressed (like currently), then guys are not really thinking about fuck you status as frequently and obsessively as when BTC prices start to recover and then when the BTC prices start to move up, then guys start to more frequently imagine ways in which they might be able to quit their jobs and fuel their current lifestyles (or their future fantasy lifestyles) with the bounds of their current bitcoin holdings and/or their future anticipated bitcoin holdings.

I am expecting your reviews to make it public! Do you think we can make it public already?

That URL is working, we can already share it.

[JayJuanGee]

And, by the way, weren't you (@bitmover) working on some tweaks to a new fuck you status page/tool that we might be able to agree to go public with? or maybe I missed some of the latests tweaks to such new tool that might be in my court...

Many of us likely realize that when the BTC prices are depressed (like currently), then guys are not really thinking about fuck you status as frequently and obsessively as when BTC prices start to recover and then when the BTC prices start to move up, then guys start to more frequently imagine ways in which they might be able to quit their jobs and fuel their current lifestyles (or their future fantasy lifestyles) with the bounds of their current bitcoin holdings and/or their future anticipated bitcoin holdings.

I am expecting your reviews to make it public! Do you think we can make it public already?

That URL is working, we can already share it.

I was waiting for you to respond to our latest interactions.. Maybe we can take this to PMs..

[Tzupy]

Bitcoin price is at major resistance, from a large triangle starting in Oct '25 and touching in May '26. If this triangle will break up, during the next days, there is considerable upside, possibly 83k (upper BB weekly). But it may be rejected for now, and still break up later. A daily PSAR flip to bullish, which may happen soon, would increase the chance of the large triangle breaking up.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin price is at major resistance, from a large triangle starting in Oct '25 and touching in May '26. If this triangle will break up, during the next days, there is considerable upside, possibly 83k (upper BB weekly). But it may be rejected for now, and still break up later. A daily PSAR flip to bullish, which may happen soon, would increase the chance of the large triangle breaking up.

But if it will actually be rejected, where do you project Bitcoin might go during the next few months? Will we see a October/November bottom which fulfills another Four-Year-Cycle, and prove it's still intact OR do we see it BREAK that cycle?

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[okorieemmanuel]

Bitcoin price is at major resistance, from a large triangle starting in Oct '25 and touching in May '26. If this triangle will break up, during the next days, there is considerable upside, possibly 83k (upper BB weekly). But it may be rejected for now, and still break up later. A daily PSAR flip to bullish, which may happen soon, would increase the chance of the large triangle breaking up.

The probability for this happening is reducing everyday. If this scenario continues, the bullish pressure will overcome it.

[Tzupy]

Bitcoin price is at major resistance, from a large triangle starting in Oct '25 and touching in May '26. If this triangle will break up, during the next days, there is considerable upside, possibly 83k (upper BB weekly). But it may be rejected for now, and still break up later. A daily PSAR flip to bullish, which may happen soon, would increase the chance of the large triangle breaking up.

But if it will actually be rejected, where do you project Bitcoin might go during the next few months? Will we see a October/November bottom which fulfills another Four-Year-Cycle, and prove it's still intact OR do we see it BREAK that cycle?

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sorry for the delayed answer, I waited for more price action, in order to provide a meaningful answer.
For the big triangle, it depends how you draw it, if it did or not break up yet. In my drawing, it did not yet, but in Gareth Soloway's it did.
You can check his video on the matter here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMilKgvKRIs

While daily PSAR did flip to bullish, this only lasted 3 days, and flipped back to bearish again. Also 3d PSAR did flip to bearish. Oddly, Kraken shows a slightly different pattern than Bitstamp or Coinbase. So the matter, up or down move, is not yet decided IMO.

There is a long term trendline where the market found support in late June, and now support from that trendline is around 59.5k. If that support breaks, I would expect to see 42k and later 35k.
If we'll see support holding and a strong bounce soon, then it's possible the correction from Oct '25 to June '26 was wave A, and we will see some serious upside (wave B) before wave C.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin price is at major resistance, from a large triangle starting in Oct '25 and touching in May '26. If this triangle will break up, during the next days, there is considerable upside, possibly 83k (upper BB weekly). But it may be rejected for now, and still break up later. A daily PSAR flip to bullish, which may happen soon, would increase the chance of the large triangle breaking up.

But if it will actually be rejected, where do you project Bitcoin might go during the next few months? Will we see a October/November bottom which fulfills another Four-Year-Cycle, and prove it's still intact OR do we see it BREAK that cycle?

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sorry for the delayed answer, I waited for more price action, in order to provide a meaningful answer.
For the big triangle, it depends how you draw it, if it did or not break up yet. In my drawing, it did not yet, but in Gareth Soloway's it did.

You can check his video on the matter here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMilKgvKRIs

While daily PSAR did flip to bullish, this only lasted 3 days, and flipped back to bearish again. Also 3d PSAR did flip to bearish. Oddly, Kraken shows a slightly different pattern than Bitstamp or Coinbase. So the matter, up or down move, is not yet decided IMO.

There is a long term trendline where the market found support in late June, and now support from that trendline is around 59.5k. If that support breaks, I would expect to see 42k and later 35k.

If we'll see support holding and a strong bounce soon, then it's possible the correction from Oct '25 to June '26 was wave A, and we will see some serious upside (wave B) before wave C.

If you were asked to give something a probability - Which has the higher probability of happening, Bitcoin surging to $95,000? OR Bitcoin crashing to $35,000?

Plus I'm asking strictly from what you CURRENTLY see in your chart/technical analysis RIGHT NOW.