-- Butterfly Labs New 600GH "Mining Card" - RED FLAGS?!?!

[Xialla]

Who exactly is Sonny? Don't tell me he's the founder or the CEO.  It Explains why management tolerated Josh.

What did sonny do exactly to get in trouble?

you should continue here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110868.0

btw PL is expert about Sonny.)

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[Phinnaeus Gage]

I would love for this new card to be real, but I have a hard time believing this is achievable. I hope someone can prove me wrong. Let's look at this from a competition perspective:

Avalon: 110nm, 67 GH/s, 600+ watts
BFL: 65nm, 60 GH/s, 300+ watts
KNC Miner: 28nm, 400+ GH/s, ~1,000 watts (Yet to be seen)

BFL Monarch: 28nm, 600 GH/s, 350 watts

So the die size cutting nearly in half from the Avalon's 110nm to the BFL's 65nm cut the power in half for roughly the same performance (60-67 GH/s). Avalon is 600+ watts, BFL single is 300+ watts. Makes sense.

One would assume that cutting the die size in half again to 28nm from 65nm would allow the power to be cut in half again for the same 60 GH/s performance. Let's assume it consumes 150 watts as a result (half that of a Single). Seems reasonable.

But now let's assume instead of 60GH/s, the performance is going to be 600 GH/s. If we are going to increase the hash rate by 10x, then the power requirement will also likely increase by 10x. That means the power should be roughly 1,500 watts (about the maximum you can safely draw from a single residential power circuit in the US).

If memory serves me correctly, KNC miner estimated 1,000 watts for their rig. If the BFL Monarch is going to perform 50% greater and the same die size, then power draw naturally would also seem to be 50% greater. So, that seems consistent with my 1,500 watt figure above.

It would be great to get some clarification from BFL on this before placing orders.

Thoughts anyone?

BFL could be fudging their numbers (again) to get orders?  Nah, not possible. 

Spot on with the fudge comment!

[k9quaint]

Ponzi scheme for sure

It's starting to resemble a Ponzi scheme.  They need new orders to get the old ones out.  I'm hoping I'm not a the tail end of the Ponzi scheme.

Man this sucks.


And today I found out from the BFL chat room that BFL is in fact managed by convicted criminals.  I didn't verify this which is why I left it out of the OP but nobody objected when this was brought up so it may be true.

One this is for sure, BFL was the top dog in this sector for the last 2 years and they were behaving arrogant, rude and cruel at times and their customers are not their priority - shipping bulk chips next month proves that if their attitude towards disgruntled customers and jacking their prices by nearly double didn't.

They were behaving like a monopoly much too soon and maybe now they see with all the new competition that future profits won't be as juicy as they have been and not to mention everyone hates them.

Given Their shitty attitude and reputation towards their customers anything is possible with these guys.

I'm surprised, Vlad, that you weren't aware of Sonny Vleisides background.

Who exactly is Sonny? Don't tell me he's the founder or the CEO.  It Explains why management tolerated Josh.

What did sonny do exactly to get in trouble?

https://postalinspectors.uspis.gov/radDocs/PressRoom/nr110114.htm
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110805.0;all
https://sites.google.com/site/bitcointech/home/united-states-of-america-vs-sonny-vleisides
http://www.scribd.com/doc/106409592/Criminal-Minutes-Change-of-Plea-USA-v-Vleisides
http://archive.recapthelaw.org/cacd/383561/

Sonny and his gang stole $25 million in various frauds. Sonny pled guilty and testified against his cohorts in return for leniency.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

It is incredible that during all this backlog issues they still had time to work on 600GH 28nm miner.

In defense of BFL, Nasser was in charge of this, taking time out from developing PSBs that play elevator music, his ONLY claim-to-fame.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

It is incredible that during all this backlog issues they still had time to work on 600GH 28nm miner.

They have nothing being worked on.

Anyone can post they are WORKING on something doesn't mean they are and given the "design" as you go with their ASICs so far what makes anyone think they actually have anything? Don't believe it. 

Since I have so much barn wood in stock, I have decided to build furniture with in. I've been developing the idea for the past 6 months, and starting acting upon the idea a couple months ago. The following image is my latest creation.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Ponzi scheme for sure

It's starting to resemble a Ponzi scheme.  They need new orders to get the old ones out.  I'm hoping I'm not a the tail end of the Ponzi scheme.

Man this sucks.


And today I found out from the BFL chat room that BFL is in fact managed by convicted criminals.  I didn't verify this which is why I left it out of the OP but nobody objected when this was brought up so it may be true.

One this is for sure, BFL was the top dog in this sector for the last 2 years and they were behaving arrogant, rude and cruel at times and their customers are not their priority - shipping bulk chips next month proves that if their attitude towards disgruntled customers and jacking their prices by nearly double didn't.

They were behaving like a monopoly much too soon and maybe now they see with all the new competition that future profits won't be as juicy as they have been and not to mention everyone hates them.

Given Their shitty attitude and reputation towards their customers anything is possible with these guys.

I'm surprised, Vlad, that you weren't aware of Sonny Vleisides background.

Who exactly is Sonny? Don't tell me he's the founder or the CEO.  It Explains why management tolerated Josh.

What did sonny do exactly to get in trouble?

https://postalinspectors.uspis.gov/radDocs/PressRoom/nr110114.htm
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110805.0;all
https://sites.google.com/site/bitcointech/home/united-states-of-america-vs-sonny-vleisides
http://www.scribd.com/doc/106409592/Criminal-Minutes-Change-of-Plea-USA-v-Vleisides
http://archive.recapthelaw.org/cacd/383561/

Sonny and his gang stole $25 million in various frauds. Sonny pled guilty and testified against his cohorts in return for leniency.

Oh man, NO, not fraud and theft!!!  I was hoping it was like a triple homicide or something.  You know, a crime of passion - a one time deal.  Usually guys who commit fraud don't stop.  Man....add another red flag.


Or maybe he learned his lesson.....

[k9quaint]

https://postalinspectors.uspis.gov/radDocs/PressRoom/nr110114.htm
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110805.0;all
https://sites.google.com/site/bitcointech/home/united-states-of-america-vs-sonny-vleisides
http://www.scribd.com/doc/106409592/Criminal-Minutes-Change-of-Plea-USA-v-Vleisides
http://archive.recapthelaw.org/cacd/383561/

Sonny and his gang stole $25 million in various frauds. Sonny pled guilty and testified against his cohorts in return for leniency.

Oh man, NO, not fraud and theft!!!  I was hoping it was like a triple homicide or something.  You know, a crime of passion - a one time deal.  Usually guys who commit fraud don't stop.  Man....add another red flag.


Or maybe he learned his lesson.....

He did learn his lesson. He won't get caught the same way he did before!

[Phinnaeus Gage]

https://postalinspectors.uspis.gov/radDocs/PressRoom/nr110114.htm
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110805.0;all
https://sites.google.com/site/bitcointech/home/united-states-of-america-vs-sonny-vleisides
http://www.scribd.com/doc/106409592/Criminal-Minutes-Change-of-Plea-USA-v-Vleisides
http://archive.recapthelaw.org/cacd/383561/

Sonny and his gang stole $25 million in various frauds. Sonny pled guilty and testified against his cohorts in return for leniency.

Oh man, NO, not fraud and theft!!!  I was hoping it was like a triple homicide or something.  You know, a crime of passion - a one time deal.  Usually guys who commit fraud don't stop.  Man....add another red flag.


Or maybe he learned his lesson.....

He did learn his lesson. He won't get caught the same way he did before!

Thanks to his discovery of Bitcoin upon being released from jail. And to think about all the time he wasted in that Italian cell wondering how he could revive the DMT after his release.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Who exactly is Sonny? Don't tell me he's the founder or the CEO.  It Explains why management tolerated Josh.

What did sonny do exactly to get in trouble?

you should continue here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110868.0

btw PL is expert about Sonny.)

Dude, that's actually a sad story.

I feel for this guy Sonny.   And he definitely leaned his lesson even though that whole grey area could have been easily stepped on by anyone as he pointed out - lots of other companies were indicted.  

This story actually makes me feel stronger about BFL, a guy like that never wants to be in that spot ever again.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Here's the obvious reason: They want to price this Above the cost of their current products.  That way, people will need to PAY MORE even if they are just upgrading an order.  So you have a 50Gh/s box, you upgrade to this you have to pay another $2000.

This.  A board with lower wattage, hashing power, and cost makes perfect sense in all areas but one.

If BFL needs money flowing in (not out) then offering something like 100 GH/s card @ 87W and $899 won't help.

Someone with a 60GH single ($1500?) would likely hedge their bets asking to upgrade it to 100 GH/s card and get a partial refund.  Even those who truly upgraded to say 2 cards would only mean a token amount of new money $300 coming in.

The stupidly high wattage, high price single offering (w/ 10% upgrade fee as an added insult) is designed to ensure most upgrades will result in significant additional revenue.  This is what BFL needs and why the next gen was offered like this.  It also leaves though who don't upgrade in a tight spot.  If competitors don't make your un-upgraded BFL rig obsolete (and a net negative profit), BFL own 2nd gen product will. 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.   The smart thing to do would be to seek a refund.  No BFL "all sales are final" have no merit when they haven't yet shipped and have missed their own shipping schedule.  A sale occurs when money AND product change hands.  BFL doesn't have sales, they have orders and the UCC doesn't allow "all orders are final w/ no exemptions for non-delivery".

My guess if BFL is betting that most users will opt to upgrade rather than cancel.

[k9quaint]

Here's the obvious reason: They want to price this Above the cost of their current products.  That way, people will need to PAY MORE even if they are just upgrading an order.  So you have a 50Gh/s box, you upgrade to this you have to pay another $2000.

This.  A board with lower wattage, hashing power, and cost makes perfect sense in all areas but one.

If BFL needs money flowing in (not out) then offering something like 100 GH/s card @ 87W and $899 won't help.

Someone with a 60GH single ($1500?) would likely hedge their bets asking to upgrade it to 100 GH/s card and get a partial refund.  Even those who truly upgraded to say 2 cards would only mean a token amount of new money $300 coming in.

The stupidly high wattage, high price single offering (w/ 10% upgrade fee as an added insult) is designed to ensure most upgrades will result in significant additional revenue.  This is what BFL needs and why the next gen was offered like this.  It also leaves though who don't upgrade in a tight spot.  If competitors don't make your un-upgraded BFL rig obsolete (and a net negative profit), BFL own 2nd gen product will. 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.   The smart thing to do would be to seek a refund.  No BFL "all sales are final" have no merit when they haven't yet shipped and have missed their own shipping schedule.  A sale occurs when money AND product change hands.  BFL doesn't have sales, they have orders and the UCC doesn't allow "all orders are final w/ no exemptions for non-delivery".

My guess if BFL is betting that most users will opt to upgrade rather than cancel.

I think you are spot on.

It looks like this thread needs a Public Service Announcement!
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. One customer has already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises.

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

 

[cypherdoc]

My guess if BFL is betting that most users will opt to upgrade rather than cancel.

that is one major bet. 

if users get tired of the shenanigans they could just as easily refund.

[trichome]

Last hurrah before they file for bankruptcy protection.

Sadly, this is starting to smell like that.  I hope I'm wrong cause I have a bunch of orders in may 2013. I would not be one of the lucky ones although I did use PayPal.

With all the info out in May about BFL being what it is, not to be rude but why on earth did you order from them ?!?!?!? I was actively trying to get a refund for my order of singles(refund is complete thanks to paypal) that were placed in 2012.  

You have to be honest with yourself look at the numbers and their great PR from inaba here.....you just starting to think it smells bad? They are scammers and making a bunch of orders in may from BFL was just plain well silly...did you look into ROI and their history of delivery promises??!??!?  I just feel real bad for you bud.  Get your refund now and your screwed.

[af_newbie]

Last year, it would have been a killer product.  By December 2013, 600GH will be mining what 12 GH is today.

Would you pay ~5K for 12GH today?  I think the product is overpriced.  It should have been priced around $400-600.  Maybe $800, like a high end video card, IMHO.

I'm not buying.

[Vlad2Vlad]

My guess if BFL is betting that most users will opt to upgrade rather than cancel.

that is one major bet. 

if users get tired of the shenanigans they could just as easily refund.

Refund?  Lol, there's no more PayPal this time.  No more refunds.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Last year, it would have been a killer product.  By December 2013, 600GH will be mining what 12 GH is today.

Would you pay ~5K for 12GH today?  I think the product is overpriced.  It should have been priced around $400-600.  Maybe $800, like a high end video card, IMHO.

I'm not buying.

That's a good point.

[k9quaint]

My guess if BFL is betting that most users will opt to upgrade rather than cancel.

that is one major bet. 

if users get tired of the shenanigans they could just as easily refund.

Refund?  Lol, there's no more PayPal this time.  No more refunds.

You can always force BFL to issue you a refund, right up to the point that they ship you the product.

[erk]

Last year, it would have been a killer product.  By December 2013, 600GH will be mining what 12 GH is today.

Would you pay ~5K for 12GH today?  I think the product is overpriced.  It should have been priced around $400-600.  Maybe $800, like a high end video card, IMHO.

I'm not buying.

True, always smell a trap for early adopters when you see a PCI-e card selling for thousands of dollars, it's not like the foundry charges any more for ASIC chips than other ones. As you say, the pricing should be similar to a high end video card, even though it's probably got less parts.

[el_rlee]

tl; dr

RED FLAG # 5:  It's BFL.

[vesperwillow]

Aside from any other flags being thrown, beware any company or individual who's best list of reasons for being better than the competition is to merely insult the competition.