[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[drawingthesun]

I want to invest into this company, but all i see is complete vaporware.
[...]
until then i cannot believe anyone would be a part of this venture.

Yeah, this makes complete sense.

Seriously? Electerium's post is only meant to troll. He knows he can't invest and he knows no one has bought shares in recent times.

Most of us invested when the chips seemed to be on time and around the corner, we had no evidence of delays at that point.

So this baloney about "i cannot believe anyone would be a part of this venture" is misleading, because no one has invested in the past several months when all these problems came to light.

Yeah I too cannot understand why people would want to be apart of this venture right now, until recently we were 98% in the dark and it seemed everything that could go wrong went wrong.

However Electerium, you already knew that no one has invested recently didn't you? You're only here to troll, because you haven't said anything constructive at all.

I personally believe that Ken will have these 55nm's hashing soon and I am hopeful about the 28nm specification. It must be 100GH/s+ at least per chip to stay competitive.

However this belief is personal and I would still recommend all newcomers to stay very clear from this investment until we ship our first ASIC miner that has our chips at it's core.

If the 55nm is quick and the 28nm impressive, I honestly believe we could be sitting on a gold mine. But I need evidence of product shipped, and until then cannot in good faith encourage newcomers into this security.

However the trolls are far more doom and gloom than the actual situation and this is actually just entertainment to them. They are laughing behind their computer screens as they cause the investors to continually pump the number of pages into the thousands making any useful information fade into the noise.

[1715119572]

1715119572

[iSnow]

Seriously? Electerium's post is only meant to troll.

Of course not, I was kidding.

The thread is driving me slowly insane, and the amount of idiots, sock puppets and trolls sure helps.

[Vigil]

The good thing is that it looks like difficulty should be "leveling-off" by the end of this year.

The difficulty will level off when it becomes unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell chips. This won't change as long as basic economic laws hold.  Rising tide floats all boats yadda yadda yadda.

No.

[drawingthesun]

Hang in bro; not much longer!  In two days, when you get your shares back on CT, you'll show everyone just how wrong they are.

What a fabulous post!

When we trade and the share price hits crazy lows, lows that only EduardoDeCastro could have predicted. We will have to admit utter defeat and bow to the trolls amazing foresight.

Except you're not an amazing unique snowflake that holds powers of observation beyond ours dreams. It's freaking obvious the price will stink, too many people have wanted out for too long, we are still in uncertain waters and with the Bitcoin price where it is there is no chance the shares will maintain 0.0005+

So really you haven't poured any constructive information into this forum, you simply regurgitate the obvious as if it's some insight we are all not aware of.

The shares will stink, until the 55nm ships, and then the price will slowly climb. Once we get a solid specification for a 100GH/s+ 28nm chip the shares will stabilize around 0.001 and once the 28nm ship, unless a massive player (AMD, Intel, IBM) gets involved in mining I see our price settling in around 0.003 at full capacity.

It's still a loss on my investment but in todays world I am a happy cat.

[stenkross]

...
I personally believe that Ken will have these 55nm's hashing soon
...

Your definition of "soon" is quite different than mine.

It is my understanding that Ken will get the chips Q2, 2014.
Since this is ActM, you should always assume the worst, and that means june 30'th, ie: more than 5 months from now.

That is several lifetimes away in Bitcoin time.

[wasubii]

Ugghhh, how many difficulty adjustments in 5 months?

15?

[stenkross]

Ugghhh, how many difficulty adjustments in 5 months?

15?

~10 (one every 2 weeks).

Again, I'm not saying it will be 5 months from now. Best case scenario is 2 months away (beginning of april).
But I wouldn't count on that.

[kleeck]

Ugghhh, how many difficulty adjustments in 5 months?

15?

~10 (one every 2 weeks).

Again, I'm not saying it will be 5 months from now. Best case scenario is 2 months away (beginning of april).
But I wouldn't count on that.

The current scenario is quite different, in regards to potential delays, as we've acquired a working chip that is already in tape-out. I understand the apprehension, though.

[mainline]

Hang in bro; not much longer!  In two days, when you get your shares back on CT, you'll show everyone just how wrong they are.

What a fabulous post!

When we trade and the share price hits crazy lows, lows that only EduardoDeCastro could have predicted. We will have to admit utter defeat and bow to the trolls amazing foresight.

Except you're not an amazing unique snowflake that holds powers of observation beyond ours dreams. It's freaking obvious the price will stink, too many people have wanted out for too long, we are still in uncertain waters and with the Bitcoin price where it is there is no chance the shares will maintain 0.0005+

So really you haven't poured any constructive information into this forum, you simply regurgitate the obvious as if it's some insight we are all not aware of.

The shares will stink, until the 55nm ships, and then the price will slowly climb. Once we get a solid specification for a 100GH/s+ 28nm chip the shares will stabilize around 0.001 and once the 28nm ship, unless a massive player (AMD, Intel, IBM) gets involved in mining I see our price settling in around 0.003 at full capacity.

It's still a loss on my investment but in todays world I am a happy cat.

You have suggested that I am crumbs.
Crumbs accurately predicted the outcome of this sideshow a long time ago, when you were buying into it at the top of the market.
While such foresight is by no means amazing (a claim was made that crubs' cats reached the same conclusion), you must admit that crumbs' (and his cat's) foresight was substantially better than yours

[wasubii]

Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.

If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.

If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.

Correct me if I'm wrong

[mainline]

The good thing is that it looks like difficulty should be "leveling-off" by the end of this year.

The difficulty will level off when it becomes unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell chips. This won't change as long as basic economic laws hold.  Rising tide floats all boats yadda yadda yadda.

No.

Can't argue with that logic.  Other manufacturers, bored by profits, will stop making, selling, and mining their ASICs.  Leaving the market wide open for Ken & his awesome 55nm chippery

Edit: If there ever will be any chippery - thus far, there's none.

[zumzero]

Although I'm largely bullish for ActM future I would agree with stenkross in that when dates are concerned I'd be more inclined to go with the latter part of estimates rather than the best possible scenario.  This is purely as a defence mechanism from totally losing the plot and expecting something that isn't going to happen which doesn't do anyone any good and turns this thread into more nonsense.  It's pretty obvious that with the 55nm chips everything that can be done to expedite their production should be given utmost priority.  I'd be interested to know if the work being done on the 55nm chips will/could delay the 28nm development.  If the answer to that is either yes/possibly then I would question the decision to pursue the 55nm.  I would like some reassurance from Ken on this point.

Regarding the share price, DTS is right and it doesn't take a troll to point out stuff that we all know to be true.  I would give a much higher long term valuation than DTS's and given that he recently attempted to sell all his shares but has clearly changed his mind this would suggest that the assumption that many will head for the exit when trading starts may not come to fruition.  IF the share price bottoms out below AMC IPO price you can guarantee that there would be a massive rush from people scrambling to buy them up.  I would sell my car and take public transport to get my hands on shares at that price.

[Vigil]

The good thing is that it looks like difficulty should be "leveling-off" by the end of this year.

The difficulty will level off when it becomes unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell chips. This won't change as long as basic economic laws hold.  Rising tide floats all boats yadda yadda yadda.

No.

Can't argue with that logic.  Other manufacturers, bored by profits, will stop making, selling, and mining their ASICs.  Leaving the market wide open for Ken & his awesome 55nm chippery

The parabolic rise was due to the transition from GPUs/FPGAs to ASICs. As difficulty increases, each addition of hashrate becomes a smaller and smaller percentage to the total. I am not saying that the difficulty will stop increasing, just that the rate of increase will be lower. Thus, the planning of manufacture and profitability will become more predictable. Gains in hashrate are diminishing with each die shrink and it will be that the best way to sell miners is through lowering costs through scaled-up production and not faster chips.

[kleeck]

Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.

If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.

If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.

Correct me if I'm wrong

By my back of the envelope calculations ActM will be entering the mining scene after the total network hashrate has passed 100PH, potentially by a lot.

We are currently entering February around 18PH (http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/) with somewhere between 78% and 88% adjustments per month. We'll aim high and say 90% adjustments, per month. Actually, let's just say we'll see 100% adjustments from here on through Q2, it's not like that's unreasonable.

18*2 = 36PH  @ end of March
36*2 = 72PH  @ end of April - Start of Q2
72*2 = 144PH @ end of May
144*2= 288PH@ end of June - End of Q2

[mainline]

The good thing is that it looks like difficulty should be "leveling-off" by the end of this year.

The difficulty will level off when it becomes unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell chips. This won't change as long as basic economic laws hold.  Rising tide floats all boats yadda yadda yadda.

No.

Can't argue with that logic.  Other manufacturers, bored by profits, will stop making, selling, and mining their ASICs.  Leaving the market wide open for Ken & his awesome 55nm chippery

The parabolic rise was due to the transition from GPUs/FPGAs to ASICs. As difficulty increases, each addition of hashrate becomes a smaller and smaller percentage to the total. I am not saying that the difficulty will stop increasing, just that the rate of increase will be lower. Thus, the planning of manufacture and profitability will become more predictable. Gains in hashrate are diminishing with each die shrink and it will be that the best way to sell miners is through lowering costs through scaled-up production and not faster chips.

You're missing the obvious - more manufacturers are jumping in on the action.  Hashfast's boxen are already hitting the market.  Cointerra claims to start shipping within days.  Bitfury is ramping up its production.  BFL is bound to eventually get its act together.  And, as long as there's money to be made, manufacturers will continue cranking out chips.
In other words, though the difficulty climb will slow down, there's nothing to suggest that this slowdown will happen anytime soon.
Or that it will disproportionately help Ken's obsolete chips.

[Vigil]

Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.

If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.

If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.

Correct me if I'm wrong

By my back of the envelope calculations ActM will be entering the mining scene after the total network hashrate has passed 100PH, potentially by a lot.

We are currently entering February around 18PH (http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/) with somewhere between 78% and 88% adjustments per month. We'll aim high and say 90% adjustments, per month. Actually, let's just say we'll see 100% adjustments from here on through Q2, it's not like that's unreasonable.

18*2 = 36PH  @ end of March
36*2 = 72PH  @ end of April - Start of Q2
72*2 = 144PH @ end of May
144*2= 288PH@ end of June - End of Q2

Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.

[mainline]

Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.

If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.

If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.

Correct me if I'm wrong

By my back of the envelope calculations ActM will be entering the mining scene after the total network hashrate has passed 100PH, potentially by a lot.

We are currently entering February around 18PH (http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/) with somewhere between 78% and 88% adjustments per month. We'll aim high and say 90% adjustments, per month. Actually, let's just say we'll see 100% adjustments from here on through Q2, it's not like that's unreasonable.

18*2 = 36PH  @ end of March
36*2 = 72PH  @ end of April - Start of Q2
72*2 = 144PH @ end of May
144*2= 288PH@ end of June - End of Q2

Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.

New players. Bigger foundry orders.  As i understand it, there's money in bitcoin ASICs.

[Vigil]

Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.

New players. Bigger foundry orders.  As i understand it, there's money in bitcoin ASICs.

There is money, but there are technological and productive limits. There is no way to sustain the current hashing growth rate.

[kleeck]

Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.

If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.

If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.

Correct me if I'm wrong

By my back of the envelope calculations ActM will be entering the mining scene after the total network hashrate has passed 100PH, potentially by a lot.

We are currently entering February around 18PH (http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/) with somewhere between 78% and 88% adjustments per month. We'll aim high and say 90% adjustments, per month. Actually, let's just say we'll see 100% adjustments from here on through Q2, it's not like that's unreasonable.

18*2 = 36PH  @ end of March
36*2 = 72PH  @ end of April - Start of Q2
72*2 = 144PH @ end of May
144*2= 288PH@ end of June - End of Q2

Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.

CoinTerra is aiming for shipping this quarter, HashFast is now shipping, BlackArrow is shipping Q2 and I know there are more already announced on top of new entrants. If you anticipate an increase in the value of Bitcoin, then you should anticipate an increase in companies wanting to enter the mining industry.

[MrTeal]

Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.

If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.

If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.

Correct me if I'm wrong

By my back of the envelope calculations ActM will be entering the mining scene after the total network hashrate has passed 100PH, potentially by a lot.

We are currently entering February around 18PH (http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/) with somewhere between 78% and 88% adjustments per month. We'll aim high and say 90% adjustments, per month. Actually, let's just say we'll see 100% adjustments from here on through Q2, it's not like that's unreasonable.

18*2 = 36PH  @ end of March
36*2 = 72PH  @ end of April - Start of Q2
72*2 = 144PH @ end of May
144*2= 288PH@ end of June - End of Q2

Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.

Don't go spreading FUD. Everyone knows that The Genesis Block says there will be 1,500PH/s on the network by the end of September, and they wouldn't lie about that. It's only half a million Neptunes or a million Sierras. I'm sure the manufacturers will get it together.