[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[Bargraphics]

I'd really like to get out to a conference this year. There are a number of variables involved in the decision, though. Is there a nice consolidated list of Bitcoin Conferences happening in 2014?

https://bitcoin.org/en/events

Then of course there are smaller events all over the place. The conferences are nothing like these boards. Everyone there is looking to further their information, make connections, and be part of this quickly growing phenomenon that is Bitcoin. It's really sad what this forum has developed into.

[EduardoDeCastro]

Yeah, the cons are way classier than this forum...  

http://www.ecxs.net/index.php?q=aHR0cDovL2kuaW1ndXIuY29tL29ZVzhHRnMuanBn

^^Shops in fancy rich people stores that sell one underwear at a time.

[shaofis]

Profit Projections On Our 55nm Deployment

This sort of thing does more harm than good. It's not realistic and honestly paints a picture that you don't have a full operational plan.

Do you have a facility for the equipment? How many racks? How are you going to provide that much cooling? So many operational costs are just being ignored here that it either stinks of lack of planning or lack of appreciation for the challenges you are about to face.

I know you had a lot of major set backs with the chips; but with that under way it's time you give some focus to the operational side of things. Just claiming you'll have 1PH online after receiving the chips is just setting everyone up for yet another missed expectation.

If you have all of the necessary plans rather then posting some unrealistic calculators how about you share real information with those who have funded your operation.

[minerpart]

Profit Projections On Our 55nm Deployment

This sort of thing does more harm than good. It's not realistic and honestly paints a picture that you don't have a full operational plan.

I couldn't disagree more. This is crunching the key numbers, which is essential to the viability of any project. The fact that, as you've pointed out, there are other costs involved in such a project is hardly a revelation. I'm sure Ken is well aware that you have to pay rent on a premises and actually pay electrical installers etc - they don't work for free. But these one-off and on-going costs will not amount to 2.3Million dollars so if they haven't been factored in we will still make a huge profit. If they have been factored in the entire amount will go to shareholders.

Now I really despair when Ken updates us with  something like this and people say it's useless and unrealistic. Says who? What do you know anyway shaofis? I mean really, what do you know about Ken's premises plans or his electrical contractors? Absolutely nothing. If you are concerned about other expenses impacting on this profit line why not ask Ken if he can clarify? Why is your first reaction so dismissive? I'll tell you what if I were Ken and this is the reaction I got on here constantly, everyday, I wouldn't spend much time on here. Would you?

btw - you are right about the operational side of this project and I was about to post on that very topic.

Instead of constantly asking about your shares, if anyone wants to see any return on this investment, I suggest you start asking Ken about the work he is doing to make the farm a reality. Why is no-one asking Ken about the premises we will be using, the electrical installation work needing to be done, the assembly capacity we have, the boards, the engineering team we will be relying on? There is still a lot of work to do to make this farm operational and viable - chips are only half the battle. Stop asking about shares, start asking about the farm.

[interJ]

...

Instead of constantly asking about your shares, if anyone wants to see any return on this investment, I suggest you start asking Ken about the work he is doing to make the farm a reality. Why is no-one asking Ken about the premises we will be using, the electrical installation work needing to be done, the assembly capacity we have, the boards, the engineering team we will be relying on? There is still a lot of work to do to make this farm operational and viable - chips are only half the battle. Stop asking about shares, start asking about the farm.

To which I would respond:

"You want us to have faith in you to put an ASIC to market? Taking over 100 days for what a high school kid with a "For Dummies" manual could do really isn't instilling much faith."

I for one would rather NOT need to ask about the specific details of the farm, because I'd rather be in a situation where I can trust the abilities of Ken and his team. That I'm here asking about shares is because issues with them leave me with doubt towards the more basic competencies. That, and as anyone would tell you, there's no way of realizing a return on an investment if you can't even prove you own it.

[finlof]

Profit Projections On Our 55nm Deployment

Ken - a few questions

1. does this projection mean that you will only be mining with the 55nm chips and not be selling them?
   1a. seems like selling the chips directly provides a quicker and larger return, and if that return is then turned into more chips... (you see where I am going with this)
2. you have the hardware costs at $1,338,000.  does this include boards, assembly, installation, etc (basically all the costs for producing a working miner), or just chips?
3. can we assume that you would be mining in a pool, or are there plans to solo mine?
   3a. if you are going to solo mine, do you already have software/server/etc setup to be able to do this?
4. you set the projection to start on May 1, 2014 for 1.292 PH.  do you expect to have all the chips, boards, facility, etc up and running at the beginning of May 2014 for everything?  Would June 2014 be "more" realistic date, or does it need to be pushed out further than that?
5. you have the electricity cost in as $0.022.  What are the other costs involved (initial startup costs, the monthly data center rental, etc)?
6. your projection shows essentially 1.7MW of power usage for those chips.  that takes into account the chip power usage only.  what are the additional projected power needs for all the other equipment?
7. not really a question - you left bitcoin price at 958 and the price rise at 10% monthly.  I personally think that the numbers should reflect the current market and assume no change in BTC price.  or have multiple "realities" were you run projections on $500 BTC, current price of BTC, and some higher priced BTC.

thanks.

[shaofis]

I couldn't disagree more. This is crunching the key numbers, which is essential to the viability of any project. The fact that, as you've pointed out, there are other costs involved in such a project is hardly a revelation. I'm sure Ken is well aware that you have to pay rent on a premises and actually pay electrical installers etc - they don't work for free. But these one-off and on-going costs will not amount to 2.3Million dollars so if they haven't been factored in we will still make a huge profit. If they have been factored in the entire amount will go to shareholders.

Take your blinders off for a minute. Now tell me how operation costs aren't key numbers. How do you release a profit forecast without any consideration for these costs?

Now I really despair when Ken updates us with  something like this and people say it's useless and unrealistic. Says who? What do you know anyway shaofis? I mean really, what do you know about Ken's premises plans or his electrical contractors? Absolutely nothing. If you are concerned about other expenses impacting on this profit line why not ask Ken if he can clarify? Why is your first reaction so dismissive? I'll tell you what if I were Ken and this is the reaction I got on here constantly, everyday, I wouldn't spend much time on here. Would you?

btw - you are right about the operational side of this project and I was about to post on that very topic.

Fair Point... but that is the point isn't it? There is no reason to withhold operational plans if he had any. There is especially no reason to release forecasts excluding these costs. Let's go ask AsicMiner how insignificant the operational side has been.

[minerpart]

Take your blinders off for a minute. Now tell me how operation costs aren't key numbers. How do you release a profit forecast without any consideration for these costs?

Well how do you know costs are not factored in already?

EDIT - excellent questions finlof. You are asking the crucial questions about this project at this time.

[shaofis]

You are correct... $50 in shipping on thousands of pounds of gear...

I can go on but the paint is almost dried.

[minerpart]

You are correct... $50 in shipping on thousands of pounds of gear...

I can go on but the paint's almost dried.

'Total Fixed Costs - $1,340,000'

[shaofis]

'Total Fixed Costs - $1,340,000'

Here are some numbers for you to chew on. These are raw estimates based on what little information we have.

• 1 die is 1.9GH/s
• 24 die per board for a total of 45.6 GH/s
• 96 boards per Miner: 4377.6 GH/s and 28U of rack space

Based on these numbers we can extrapolate the following...

• 1,292,000 GH/s is roughly 680,000 die @1.9GH/s
• Each "Miner" requires 2304 total die
• 680,000 / 2304 is roughly 295 "Miners"

Assuming due to cable lengths etc that 1 "Miner" per rack you are looking at 295 racks based on these calculations. You can then adjust the per rack cost; but for sake of discussion I've listed $200-$400 as the per rack/month cost.

295 Racks @ $200-$400 per Rack
$59,000 - $118,000 per Month

Assuming 12 month contract that's $708,000 - $1,416,000.

Now you can adjust these numbers any which way you want... but based on that and a 'Total Fixed Costs - $1,340,000' I can tell you with some certainty that rack space was not included in those estimates.

* A Miner is assumed to be a full system with all populated expansions

[wasubii]

Instead of constantly asking about your shares, if anyone wants to see any return on this investment, I suggest you start asking Ken about the work he is doing to make the farm a reality. Why is no-one asking Ken about the premises we will be using, the electrical installation work needing to be done, the assembly capacity we have, the boards, the engineering team we will be relying on? There is still a lot of work to do to make this farm operational and viable - chips are only half the battle. Stop asking about shares, start asking about the farm.

I agree - theres too much talk about shares and not enough about the core business. But unfortunately Ken has a habit of ignoring questions about the farm and the key profitability of the business:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297503.msg4832562#msg4832562

[nyc77]

Instead of constantly asking about your shares, if anyone wants to see any return on this investment, I suggest you start asking Ken about the work he is doing to make the farm a reality. Why is no-one asking Ken about the premises we will be using, the electrical installation work needing to be done, the assembly capacity we have, the boards, the engineering team we will be relying on? There is still a lot of work to do to make this farm operational and viable - chips are only half the battle. Stop asking about shares, start asking about the farm.

I agree - theres too much talk about shares and not enough about the core business. But unfortunately Ken has a habit of ignoring questions about the farm and the key profitability of the business:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297503.msg4832562#msg4832562

Wrong. Tradeable shares would keep A LOT of people out of this thread, because they just want to get out of this catastrophic farce as quickly as possible.

You could then daydream about getting rich with your pocket calculators all day long. Sounds awesome, right?

[wasubii]

Profit Projections On Our 55nm Deployment

What happened to the power costs? A few days ago they were 0.017 now they are 0.022 which is 29% increase...

1.9GH/s and 2.5W, estimated end of profitable hashing:
0.20 $/kWh - July
0.15 $/kWh - August
0.10 $/kWh - September
One month extra if BTC at $2k. From selling point, it can make wide customer base for future 28nm but needs high volume, no preorders, sell at costs, deliver on time.

How about 0.017 $/kWh  

[kleeck]

Profit Projections On Our 55nm Deployment

What happened to the power costs? A few days ago they were 0.017 now they are 0.022 which is 29% increase...

1.9GH/s and 2.5W, estimated end of profitable hashing:
0.20 $/kWh - July
0.15 $/kWh - August
0.10 $/kWh - September
One month extra if BTC at $2k. From selling point, it can make wide customer base for future 28nm but needs high volume, no preorders, sell at costs, deliver on time.

How about 0.017 $/kWh  

The .017 was just the chip spec, right? Not the full system?

[wasubii]

Profit Projections On Our 55nm Deployment

What happened to the power costs? A few days ago they were 0.017 now they are 0.022 which is 29% increase...

1.9GH/s and 2.5W, estimated end of profitable hashing:
0.20 $/kWh - July
0.15 $/kWh - August
0.10 $/kWh - September
One month extra if BTC at $2k. From selling point, it can make wide customer base for future 28nm but needs high volume, no preorders, sell at costs, deliver on time.

How about 0.017 $/kWh  

The .017 was just the chip spec, right? Not the full system?

Read it again

kactech is showing the figures for when the chips will be unprofitable given different power costs, and then Ken *implies* that we would be getting power for 0.017 $/kWh

[breadcrumbs]

A) Lord Satoshi has taught us that life is fleeting and patience necessary.

B) Things come slowly and yet are fast.

C) Ken did screw up, but not so badly that there is no salvation.

D) We will see profits. We should have seen trading long ago. But, the numbers suggest that there will be profit. Great Profit.

E) Arguing on here is amusing, entertaining, but generally a waste of time.

F) Let's talk about what we will do once Mr. Slaughter makes us all rich.

G) That is far more interesting than the interminable whining.

[zumzero]

I agree - theres too much talk about shares and not enough about the core business. But unfortunately Ken has a habit of ignoring questions about the farm and the key profitability of the business:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297503.msg4832562#msg4832562

There's far too much talk in here full stop.  Here's a statistic for you.  If everyone here reduced their daily posts by 75% then that's 75% less bullshit there would be clogging up this sad fucking thread.  The problem is that all these fanboys, trolls and self proclaimed 'realists' have formed an unhealthy obsession with it and spend far to much time online.  It's one thing to want to keep your eyes on your investment and monitor company progress but there are so many self righteous opinions is sickening.  You can't ALL be right FFS!  Get off Ken's case and let him do his job.  Find something else to do and realise how fucking sad you lot sound going round and round in circles and manipulating facts and quotes to argue your lame cases that you are right on something that will have no impact on ActM, even in your dreams.

[redphlegm]

Profit Projections On Our 55nm Deployment

What happened to the power costs? A few days ago they were 0.017 now they are 0.022 which is 29% increase...

1.9GH/s and 2.5W, estimated end of profitable hashing:
0.20 $/kWh - July
0.15 $/kWh - August
0.10 $/kWh - September
One month extra if BTC at $2k. From selling point, it can make wide customer base for future 28nm but needs high volume, no preorders, sell at costs, deliver on time.

How about 0.017 $/kWh  

The .017 was just the chip spec, right? Not the full system?

Read it again

kactech is showing the figures for when the chips will be unprofitable given different power costs, and then Ken *implies* that we would be getting power for 0.017 $/kWh

For what it's worth, this is totally feasible. In addition, in certain locales, it is also possible to not only get a low power rate but also get a tax credit on IT equipment purchased (a category into which mining gear would fall).

[Jasun7211]

I'd really like to get out to a conference this year. There are a number of variables involved in the decision, though. Is there a nice consolidated list of Bitcoin Conferences happening in 2014?

https://bitcoin.org/en/events

Then of course there are smaller events all over the place. The conferences are nothing like these boards. Everyone there is looking to further their information, make connections, and be part of this quickly growing phenomenon that is Bitcoin. It's really sad what this forum has developed into.

The Austin one looks ok next month.  I always wanted to visit austin anwyay...Humm