[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)

[Anotheranonlol]

I really don't see why the argument.

Estimates that dividends could repay cryptx's loan by X date are woefully short, because of the huge reinvestment % . Dividends don't resume when sum(dividend+reinvestment)=loan.  Dividends resume when sum(dividend)=loan.

Make a copy of cryptx's spreadsheet at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHgwa0UyTHNEVG1lbDdvN2FMTExvOHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32 and change Col B to add 10PH per interval.  If the first IPO batch sells out, shareholders will only see dividends in Sep.  If the IPO does not sell at all, dividends will be seen in Dec.  All while the mine is steadily growing in hashrate, but absolutely not keeping up with the network.

Using cryptx's own spreadsheet so that nobody argues about the hosting fees, reinvestment calculations, BTC exchange rate, etc etc..  All I'm changing is the rate of growth of network hashrate to 10PH per interval, from cryptx's 6PH projection.  Yes, it's linear, so the rate of increase may easily be far, far greater.  At least this choice should appease people who point out that hashrate cannot rise exponentially forever.



- If the IPO doesn't sell at all, the loan amount could potentially be 3760 - 150 - 300 = 3310 BTC.  

- if a 1000BTC "loan" is taken from cryptx, it will only be fully repaid from dividends in Aug '14, and shareholders finally start getting lean and fast-declining dividends in Sep '14.  I don't know how cryptx calculates it, or how the loan amount is merely 1009 BTC if 10000 shares (950BTC) are sold at IPO.

- I don't see why the IPO will be bought up if the dividends quickly trend towards zero before reaching ROI, and since shares on the market are cheaper.

- Note how % network still drops during the first few periods of heavy reinvestment.  This shows that the reinvestment strategy is still futile at this rate of network growth.

We should now agree on how horrible the outcome is even with a linear 10PH increase.  Perhaps certain anonymous people will claim that 10PH is way too much.  ASICMINER has indicated expected delivery of 109PH of chips shortly.  That's just one manufacturer.  How about the rest?

So the question really is what you think the network hashrate / difficulty growth will be.

I don't think we should argue about other possible factors such as BTC exchange rates because these are the same figures as in cryptx's projections.

I also don't know whether other cloud mining operations can be sustainably profitable, but that isn't the point we're discussing.

If you think 10PH linear is too little
Why not use 15% exponential, as advised by others:



1 exahash by early december, 2 exahash in january next year. 3 months into the new year and we would have digged out another 3 exahashes on top to get us to 5 exahash.

and you havent played with reinvestment ye..same goes for BTC/USD. you can tweak that rate and end up with more BTC than is possible to mine.. running by those suggested diff numbers, you'll see the mine is supposedly 2x more profitable at 0% reinvestment than 35%, 5x more profitable at 0% than at 80% reinvestment. either way the calculated divs on spreadsheet are less than what the mine will actually earn, the total year 1 divs at  35% reinvestment for instance  is obviously false since the predicted div earnings there throughout the total year 1 equates to what is *currently* mined with 1/3 of the hashrate in a month and a half, that then comes to a negative figure on spreadsheet once you subtract the price paid back for BF hardware.. this is hardware which will be added beginning next monday,

[1715384397]

1715384397

[cryptx]

You forget a (rather important!) column :-)
+1000BTC will be paid back in less than 2 weeks

[jimmothy]

Here is a nice calculator:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=10553416309&dcosts=1600000&diff_mincrease=15&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=1000000000&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=444.68&dpowcon=1000000&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.25&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=0&action=calc

[karol]

You forget a (rather important!) column :-)
+1000BTC will be paid back in less than 2 weeks

Great You make a point bnow it looks very different - way was not so clear from the beginig?
Question is why are You not set static reinvestment%?

[crino]

How are they going to sell the IPO (0,095) if the current market price is lower (0,082)?

[hephaist0s]

I've been reading along for quite some time now and seeing how strongly some people push their views, projections and guesstimates, I can't shake the feeling they do this to influence the share price to their own good.

The argument has been brought forward, that "investors" were screwed over by releasing scryptx, then, as soon as "everyone" moved their funds over to it and away from PETA, cryptx "inflated" the share price of PETA, leaving former PETA investors out in the cold.

This, my friends, is bullshit.

Look at the PETA share price: it was on a slight uptick right before and shortly after the announcement of scryptx. There is no sign whatsoever that PETA holders sold significant numbers of shares to free capital for investing in scryptx. Also, scryptx ipo was not sold-out, reaffirming the observation that demand was not excessive and especially not driven by former PETA holders switching over.

Apart from this observation, people moving over from one project to the other on words notice can hardly be called investors. They are short term speculators. The difference is important:
long term investors care about long-term dividend yield, that is company profits. Long-term some and multiple years, although in the bitcoin business I am willing to accept a single year as long-term already. Investors do not care much about the share price, as long as they are confident that overall they will make a profit. Note that there is always two sources of profit for shareholders: dividend yield (often misleadingly called ROI around here) plus profits from selling at a higher share price after the long-term holding period.
speculators, on the other hand, care about short-term profits, mainly from jumps in the share price. Speculators always quickly move their funds where they believe the next market price swings will be strongest, they are often the spearhead when it comes to ipos. Normally, they don't care about dividends at all, as they typically hold shares for too little time for them to be relevant. In the bitcoin business, with weekly dividends, large dividend yields and little trading volume, however, they have come to care about these as well.

Now, here we seem to have the case of small time speculators, who simply made a bad choice: they jumped at the scryptx ipo, selling their small holdings of PETA. When the new ipo with a baseline price of 0.9 was announced for PETA and market share price adjusted, they cried foul for missing out on the opportunity.

Now, to remedy their own bad decision, they try to frame cryptx' behavior as bad for investors, while really only speculators like themselves are negatively affected by a short term reinvestment if all profits and a long-term value increase by increases in the total hashrate. Clearly, they try to get people to sell their PETA shares, thereby lowering the price and giving speculators the chance to put their funds back into PETA at lowered share prices. Remember: speculators mainly care about share price changes! With a market this thin, they can easily affect the price and will want to do so, if they feel they missed out on something by making a bad decision.

Sadly, it seems to be working and the speculators seem to be getting away with their method: first, scryptx share price went down, indicating people sold to get free capital to move back into PETA. Now, PETA's share price is also down, indicating that investors are actually fooled by the guesstimates and statements around here and selling their shares. I believe, the shares are happily picked up by speculators who move back into PETA shortly before the ipo.

One last thing (edit): if you are unhappy, you are free to sell your shares on the market. No need to complain and try to influence others. They will see the sentiment just by looking at the share price.

Yes. Only on this forum could an announcement that our hashrate is tripling cause pages and pages of complaining and accusations.

[millenium]

I've been reading along for quite some time now and seeing how strongly some people push their views, projections and guesstimates, I can't shake the feeling they do this to influence the share price to their own good.

The argument has been brought forward, that "investors" were screwed over by releasing scryptx, then, as soon as "everyone" moved their funds over to it and away from PETA, cryptx "inflated" the share price of PETA, leaving former PETA investors out in the cold.

This, my friends, is bullshit.

Look at the PETA share price: it was on a slight uptick right before and shortly after the announcement of scryptx. There is no sign whatsoever that PETA holders sold significant numbers of shares to free capital for investing in scryptx. Also, scryptx ipo was not sold-out, reaffirming the observation that demand was not excessive and especially not driven by former PETA holders switching over.

Apart from this observation, people moving over from one project to the other on words notice can hardly be called investors. They are short term speculators. The difference is important:
long term investors care about long-term dividend yield, that is company profits. Long-term some and multiple years, although in the bitcoin business I am willing to accept a single year as long-term already. Investors do not care much about the share price, as long as they are confident that overall they will make a profit. Note that there is always two sources of profit for shareholders: dividend yield (often misleadingly called ROI around here) plus profits from selling at a higher share price after the long-term holding period.
speculators, on the other hand, care about short-term profits, mainly from jumps in the share price. Speculators always quickly move their funds where they believe the next market price swings will be strongest, they are often the spearhead when it comes to ipos. Normally, they don't care about dividends at all, as they typically hold shares for too little time for them to be relevant. In the bitcoin business, with weekly dividends, large dividend yields and little trading volume, however, they have come to care about these as well.

Now, here we seem to have the case of small time speculators, who simply made a bad choice: they jumped at the scryptx ipo, selling their small holdings of PETA. When the new ipo with a baseline price of 0.9 was announced for PETA and market share price adjusted, they cried foul for missing out on the opportunity.

Now, to remedy their own bad decision, they try to frame cryptx' behavior as bad for investors, while really only speculators like themselves are negatively affected by a short term reinvestment if all profits and a long-term value increase by increases in the total hashrate. Clearly, they try to get people to sell their PETA shares, thereby lowering the price and giving speculators the chance to put their funds back into PETA at lowered share prices. Remember: speculators mainly care about share price changes! With a market this thin, they can easily affect the price and will want to do so, if they feel they missed out on something by making a bad decision.

Sadly, it seems to be working and the speculators seem to be getting away with their method: first, scryptx share price went down, indicating people sold to get free capital to move back into PETA. Now, PETA's share price is also down, indicating that investors are actually fooled by the guesstimates and statements around here and selling their shares. I believe, the shares are happily picked up by speculators who move back into PETA shortly before the ipo.

One last thing (edit): if you are unhappy, you are free to sell your shares on the market. No need to complain and try to influence others. They will see the sentiment just by looking at the share price.

Yes. Only on this forum could an announcement that our hashrate is tripling cause pages and pages of complaining and accusations.

+1

+1

[NotLambchop]

...
Yes. Only on this forum could an announcement that our hashrate is tripling cause pages and pages of complaining and accusations.

No one's complaining about the hashrate, it's how that hashrate translates to divs that people bitch about.
In more accessible terms, if cryptx quadruples his hashrate, but "reinvests" all the coin mined into his pocket, you might want to stop cheering (or risk looking somewhat foolish).

[cryptx]

...
Yes. Only on this forum could an announcement that our hashrate is tripling cause pages and pages of complaining and accusations.

No one's complaining about the hashrate, it's how that hashrate translates to divs that people bitch about.
In more accessible terms, if cryptx quadruples his hashrate, but "reinvests" all the coin mined into his pocket, you might want to stop cheering (or risk looking somewhat foolish).

We do not reinvests any coins in our pocket. Please read the documentation before making "statements".

[EdoBcn]

We do not reinvests any coins in our pocket. Please read the documentation before making "statements".

you sell units you manifacture to PETA
you sell power you produce to PETA

 

(on a sidenote, if anyone is interested in buying over 900 shares of Scryptx, make me an offer in private message)

[cryptx]

Please read all the information before posting such things.

you sell units you manifacture to PETA

"We can tell all of you that we have already invested over 1,000,000$ of our own private money into this project. This money has been spent on:

•   Datacenter: Electric installation, cooling, infrastructure, alarms, network, etc
•   Shipping costs: We have paid all the express shipping from US (Cointerra), from Switzerland (Bitmine), from China (Dragon miners, custom miners).
•   PSU: we have bought about 200 psu’s so the Coincraft desk could be delivered faster.
•   Custom miners: Apart from the chips, we have paid the full production of 250 miners.
•   Custom designs
•   Labor costs
•   Etc"

We have paid all the manufacturing costs of the units out of our own pockets: We paid for design, manufacturing and shipping about 300,000 USD

you sell power you produce to PETA

"We have a 350,000 Watt solar facility at site, which is owned by another company of us. To give you all an idea what this means:
In Belgium a 350kW installation has a yearly revenue of about 300,000 Kwh. The PetaMine consumes about 500 kw or 1285 kw after IPO (500*1 + 1000*0.785), this means between 4,380,000kwh and 11,256,600kwh each year. This is without any growth!
So our own electricity is only between 6.8% and ?? 1,1% of all electricity needed. What do you think such an installation costs?"

[NotLambchop]

@cryptx:  Why are you deleting my replies?

[cryptx]

@cryptx:  Why are you deleting my replies?

We would appreciate everybody to read through the info at hand first.
After this something is still not clear, you can always ask us about it.

We cannot tolerate accusations based on misinformation.

[NotLambchop]

@cryptx:  Why are you deleting my replies?

We would appreciate everybody to read through the info at hand first.
After this something is still not clear, you can always ask us about it.

We cannot tolerate accusations based on misinformation.

Lol, "misinformation"?  You mean like linear, 6PH/mo difficulty growth?  Care to explain how you've arrived at that number?

[cryptx]

@cryptx:  Why are you deleting my replies?

We would appreciate everybody to read through the info at hand first.
After this something is still not clear, you can always ask us about it.

We cannot tolerate accusations based on misinformation.

Lol, "misinformation"?  You mean like linear, 6PH/mo difficulty growth?  Care to explain how you've arrived at that number?

We made a spreadsheet, so you can use this spreadsheet to enter all variables to your liking.
Variables: network hash rate, BTC rate, price for reinvestments.

Doing so, you can make your own conclusions.

BTW: it is not 6 PH/month, but 6PH each 10 days

[EdoBcn]

Please read all the information before posting such things.
What do you think such an installation costs?"

So, you raised ~2.5 million from shareholders, added 1 million from your side, spend only 1% of your solar powerplant capacity, and then you want the shareholders to halt getting dividends? I don't think you need us for this operation. You could mine by your own... right? What am I missing here? The fees you collected until now are nothing compared to the magnitud of money you usually manage... is this a small distraction toy for you? Because for many of the shareholders it meant the difference between day and night. Not arguing here, just trying to understand why you need to get external funds for such an attractive and speculative business plan. Or why you need ADDITIONAL funds to increase operations.

[coinhuddle]

When I think of the history of mining companies, and just general bitcoin companies on Havelock and other investment platforms...  IMO, PETA still rises to the top. There is no disagreement from me that some of the questioning going on here is warranted. I personally find it encouraging how much larger the CryptX group of companies is. I would like to see full transparency on the relationship between the companies to help solidify my investment and potentially invest more. I'm not against a group of companies double or triple dipping (PETA paying sister companies for power and chips), but I just want to better understand the process when it involves a publicly traded one (PETA). There's both positive and negative spin here.. so transparency displayed on peta-mine.co or cryptx.com will help clarify the facts and remove any spin. Overall, the infrastructure that the CryptX group of companies operates is extremely positive as long as we can eliminate the FUD and spin.

I find it exciting learning about how much infrastructure is in place and how much control Cryptx has over their own future.

[cryptx]

spend only 1% of your solar powerplant capacity

"We have a 350,000 Watt solar facility at site, which is owned by another company of us. To give you all an idea what this means:
In Belgium a 350kW installation has a yearly revenue of about 300,000 Kwh. The PetaMine consumes about 500 kw or 1285 kw after IPO (500*1 + 1000*0.785), this means between 4,380,000kwh and 11,256,600kwh each year. This is without any growth!
So our own electricity is only between 6.8% and ?? 1,1% of all electricity needed. What do you think such an installation costs?"

I think you don't understand...the electricity produced from the 350k solar plant is only about 1-6% of all electricity used by the PetaMine.

[stompysteve]

how is anything going to sell on the IPO when you have walls like this
2014-05-16 17:00:37
   1672/1672   ฿0.09499900   ฿158.8383

[michaelGedi]

I was just wondering if it was possible to write a list of problems that are raised, and then offer possible solutions to these.


In hand with that, why does it seem more often than not negative statements get made on this forum with no suggestion on how to rectify. e.g. instead of "you're doing it wrong", "try this". It's (more often than not), "no that's wrong", or "this is bullshit". I know this isn't the case all of the time, but it happens often...

Other times we seem to go round in circles with various arguments with absolutely no conclusion, just a bunch of stubborn guys throwing numbers at each other.



Anyways, I would be quite interested to see what mike's potential solutions to his problems are (beyond "effect" telling cryptx to pay mike off). e.g. he clearly doesn't like:

- the new IPO shareprice (too high, "artificial inflation")
- the proximity of the scryptx IPO to these new changes (affects trading)
- the projections (unrealistic, misleading)
- the changes occuring without any warning(debatable)/consultation/voting.
- cryptx trying to make money from their business

So, what are the solutions with these problems? (brainstorm)

- lower new IPO shareprice.
- delay IPO?
- corrections/offer alternatives
- more tranparency/more investor discussion... voting!
- only put shareholders first, have no vested interest whatsoever?

What about the other issues raised? There's more beyond just mike's opinion, and he's fast proving hard to listen to although it does seem this recent shitstorm started with him having a tantrum, (and with that a bunch of guys saying "I'm out" of their own accord anyway). These issues should be addressed in some way I feel. Confidence is key.


I know this is an internet forum n'all and it's full of computer guys. But why is everything always boiled down to binary opposites? Isn't it ok for something to be average instead of good or bad, fail or win?


Anyways, just some thoughts, take or leave (yes lambchops, from a guy who still tried to hope and believe™ in neobee, even after you pointed out the cold hard truth, no need to comment).

(some small edits)