what is there to discuss? a share was trading for .065 btc for 2.88 ghs. this instantly became 8.68.
price per ghs @ .065 (2.88 ghs per share) = 0.02256 btc/ghs, which is on par with available cloud mining offerings (this offering is essentially commodified ghs)
price per ghs @ .065 (8.68 per share) = 0.00748 btc/ghs, which is pre order prices for physical hardware, and un-fucking heard of for commodified hashing
so why wouldnt the share price adjust to the same ratio?
8.68 x .02256 = .1958 btc per share
this is what people were paying before.
lets use another metric... lowest cloud mined ghs price = .018 at bit-mining.co
that would make the hashing capacity represented by a share of PETA = .1562 btc per share (market price x capacity)
so .1562 or .1958
this asset is currently undervalued
am i making a fundamental error or failing to see something that is obvious? im dead serious.
~Green
please guys, if im not understanding this (this is what i am basing my max buy price/exit price on) provide clarification.
I'm not sure what the asset really should be priced at, but I'm going to explain to you why I don't think you could just use the ratio to calculate the new price.
The real value of PETA is not the initial hashrate, but the reinvestment. So with the old news we are not only paying for the 2.88 GH/s, but also for hoping that the hashrate will rise, and some day hit 8.68 through reinvestments.
We already don't know when the old "initial hashrate" of 2.88 will achieved, because it depends of the shipments of the suppliers.
Now we have the new announcement. We only could expect the asset value to increase in the same ratio if you have reason to believe that the 8.68 will arrive at the same time when you expected the 2.88 to arrive. In my opinion this is unrealistic.
The real value of the news from yesterday is that we see that peta has an actual plan how to achieve a higher hashrate and that they shared with us when they expect the new miners to arrive. This eliminated a lot of uncertainty that existed before.
To be honest, I'm not quite sure what the real value of the Peta shares should be. Comparing the price to cloudmining can only be a very rough estimate. Because there are two big questionmarks:
How fast will peta achieve their initial hashrate?
Will peta be able to reinvest quick and good enough to beat the difficulty rise?
In short: An increase in "initial hashrate" is only worth three times as much when it arrives at the same time when the old initial hashrate would have arrived.
Further Analysis of the News:
I'll assume that one Terraminer and one Coincraft rig is 2Th/s and that one Coincraft desk is 1Th/s.
That would give us following hashrate according to the deployment schedule:
Currently : 45 Th/s
Week 9 : 115 Th/s
Week 10 : 225 Th/s
Week 11 : 335 Th/s
Week 12 : 445 Th/s
Week 13-15 :695 Th/s
So under perfect conditions (correct shipment date and 100% working miners with 100% capacity) we will achieve the old initial hashrate in the first week of march. The new "initial hashrate" will be achieved in the beginning of april, one month later, if they really are capable of producing their own custom board.
Of course this is good news since we finally know a little more about what is going on. But if we compare it to January where we were promised 2.88 in the first half of february + reinvestments in the later months we can see the damage of the delayed shipment.
And just as a little comparison, what would be the hashrate under perfect condition if everything would have worked out as planned? (Deployment of 2.88 in Week 7, with growing of 18% every 14 days to keep up with difficulty)
Week 7: 232 Th/s
Week 9: 273 Th/s
Week 11: 323 Th/s
Week 13: 381 Th/s
Week 15: 449 Th/s
Edit: As the discussion progressed quite a bit since I started writing because I'm too stupid to click on 47: I agree more with the valuation of Greenbits than mmitech. Please don't flame me
