[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)

[ujka]

what will be consequence of the low bitcoin price for the difficulty? will it rise not as fast as normal?

there is no link between difficulty and price, difficulty goes high as miners add mining power, and this has no direct connection to the price of btc.

but if the price is low arent people less willing to invest in mining hardware?

Ppl already invested with pre-orders up to may-june (maybe july?). That pre-ordered hashing power will come online anyway.
By then, bitcoin price can... well, you know, can do anything 

[bocobit]

I know that I'm a newbie and that number by my activity limits the value of my opinion on this forum, but I propose that a new thread be started for the valuation of share price.  It would keep this thread open to other discussions about the venture and it would also allow for less manipulation of the price.  People who want to invest in peta will come here looking for information and if there are pages and pages of biased shareholders arguing about the price it could discredit peta.

There are different places to talk about prices, mining, news, etc over on the bitcoin IRC; I'm suggesting we do the same and create a new place to talk about price speculation.

On that note, is there a moderator for this thread?  

[anon29426]

i'm not going to point out names but can people stop posting there half arsed attempts at valuing this venture?

spending ages writing up an opinion piece on the price while completely missing key points just makes you look stupid.

+1

I know that I'm a newbie and that number by my activity limits the value of my opinion on this forum, but I propose that a new thread be started for the valuation of share price.  It would keep this thread open to other discussions about the venture and it would also allow for less manipulation of the price.  People who want to invest in peta will come here looking for information and if there are pages and pages of biased shareholders arguing about the price it could discredit peta.

There are different places to talk about prices, mining, news, etc over on the bitcoin IRC; I'm suggesting we do the same and create a new place to talk about price speculation.

On that note, is there a moderator for this thread?  

+1

As a lurker for the last year I think its important we create a separate thread. There is far to many people who think they know what they are talking about and are just posting complete BS. Lets alteast keep all that crap out of this thread. This thread should be used for shareholders to talk about the progess of CryptX, not for day-traders to try and manipulate the price.

[ujka]

+1 for new thread (share price valuation/speculation)

[anon29426]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=486598.new#new

[trek27]

From today's official statement by Giorgio Massarotto of Bitmine:

"Petamine units
As part of the deal that we had with Cryptx, given the big amount of the purchase, we have agreed to setup an additional dedicated production line that would be working in parallel to the existing ones and producing the units just for them. As soon as the PCB boards were hashing stable at our strict requirements, the production of both the commercial units (aka the ones sold on the website) and the petamine dedicated units started exactly at the same time. The fact that they reported them before anybody else is just due to the fact that they have been picking up their units in person and reported publicly just the day after having them in hands, while the other users that had their units shipped didn't yet report that fast on the forum, but some did a few days later. Petamine just as any other user have suffered delays and are being compensated for that."

Separate production line for our orders is really a good news.

[JstnPwll]

Eligius seems to be down. Does anyone know if this means the pool is down (we aren't hashing), or just the web access to stats?

EDIT: Spoke too soon, it's back. But only because I said something, probably. 

[hephaist0s]

Eligius seems to be down. Does anyone know if this means the pool is down (we aren't hashing), or just the web access to stats?

EDIT: Spoke too soon, it's back. But only because I said something, probably. 

It almost always means that just the stats page is down, not the pool itself. The stats pages have trouble pretty frequently, so there's generally no reason to worry.

[IamNotSure]

Eligius seems to be down. Does anyone know if this means the pool is down (we aren't hashing), or just the web access to stats?

EDIT: Spoke too soon, it's back. But only because I said something, probably.  

It almost always means that just the stats page is down, not the pool itself. The stats pages have trouble pretty frequently, so there's generally no reason to worry.

Indeed, look at the blocks mined by Eligius and you'll notice that the pool is probably never down.

[rdyoung]

what will be consequence of the low bitcoin price for the difficulty? will it rise not as fast as normal?

there is no link between difficulty and price, difficulty goes high as miners add mining power, and this has no direct connection to the price of btc.

but if the price is low arent people less willing to invest in mining hardware?

Ppl already invested with pre-orders up to may-june (maybe july?). That pre-ordered hashing power will come online anyway.
By then, bitcoin price can... well, you know, can do anything 

There is a link between price and difficulty. If the price stays low enough for long enough some miners will either turn off their equipment or point it towards other coins. You also can not be 100% sure that all of the march/april/may/june orders will bet turned on immediately either, there is a likely chance that some will be sold because they are not as profitable as when the order was placed, and they might sit unused until they sell.

[cesmak]

what will be consequence of the low bitcoin price for the difficulty? will it rise not as fast as normal?

there is no link between difficulty and price, difficulty goes high as miners add mining power, and this has no direct connection to the price of btc.

but if the price is low arent people less willing to invest in mining hardware?

Ppl already invested with pre-orders up to may-june (maybe july?). That pre-ordered hashing power will come online anyway.
By then, bitcoin price can... well, you know, can do anything  

There is a link between price and difficulty. If the price stays low enough for long enough some miners will either turn off their equipment or point it towards other coins. You also can not be 100% sure that all of the march/april/may/june orders will bet turned on immediately either, there is a likely chance that some will be sold because they are not as profitable as when the order was placed, and they might sit unused until they sell.

Small miner will switch off their hardware in some months, the total hash rate is at a level that only company with huge capitals can buy new hardware, so the hardware that is switched off is a small fraction of the total computational power that is in hands of cex.io, big players in btcguild and (i hope) in the nearest future from our investment in petamine. So only the big can continue to play the game and for shure difficulty will never stop in the next months when all next gen of asic chips come to the market. The price that can negotiate a big company probably is not the street price where can buy small miners. (For me) this is the trend scenario, so price will not perfectly pairs with difficulty... (This is my personal opinion...)

Cheers

[ujka]

Cesmak has the point, small individual miners, mining in homes at 0.2$/kwh may switch off their hardware, but it's so small percent of the network, it won't be noticed. Big players will continue mining, they can negotiate much lower prices for new hardware, and power costs.

[rdyoung]

what will be consequence of the low bitcoin price for the difficulty? will it rise not as fast as normal?

there is no link between difficulty and price, difficulty goes high as miners add mining power, and this has no direct connection to the price of btc.

but if the price is low arent people less willing to invest in mining hardware?

Ppl already invested with pre-orders up to may-june (maybe july?). That pre-ordered hashing power will come online anyway.
By then, bitcoin price can... well, you know, can do anything  

There is a link between price and difficulty. If the price stays low enough for long enough some miners will either turn off their equipment or point it towards other coins. You also can not be 100% sure that all of the march/april/may/june orders will bet turned on immediately either, there is a likely chance that some will be sold because they are not as profitable as when the order was placed, and they might sit unused until they sell.

Small miner will switch off their hardware in some months, the total hash rate is at a level that only company with huge capitals can buy new hardware, so the hardware that is switched off is a small fraction of the total computational power that is in hands of cex.io, big players in btcguild and (i hope) in the nearest future from our investment in petamine. So only the big can continue to play the game and for shure difficulty will never stop in the next months when all next gen of asic chips come to the market. The price that can negotiate a big company probably is not the street price where can buy small miners. (For me) this is the trend scenario, so price will not perfectly pairs with difficulty... (This is my personal opinion...)

Cheers

And what do you think is going to happen to those mega farms if btc stays this low?
Those farms were built to make money and they likely can not go too many months in a row with a negative return.
As the difficulty increases, it squeezes their profits. If BTC/usd stays low enough even the mega farms might run into issues.
Considering the mega farms out there now are built on older tech, IE 55nm or worse, they are probably being squeezed even now for profits. I would bet that quite a few were built on debt, and if bitcoin doesnt rebound in price soon they just might be forced to shut down.

You are basing your thoughts on the next gen tech, 28nm just started shipping, and only knc is working on 20nm at the moment and they arent even close to shipping.
I reiterate what I and others have posted, its likely that we will see it level off around 100PHS/10-12Billion difficulty.
How many foundries do you think are operating producing 28nm chips? How many THS/day do you think they can stamp out. And then they have to be shipped either to end customers who will produce their own hardware, or to folks like cointerra/bitmine that will produce hardware for the end customer, and you see how many devices cointerra/bitmine can produce+ship on a daily basis, not that much.

[ujka]

Just today read a calculation somewhere, that these farms can still operate even if btc goes as low as $4.

[rdyoung]

Just today read a calculation somewhere, that these farms can still operate even if btc goes as low as $4.

Link please?
This isn't possible unless they are running 100% on solar/wind and they have set aside funds for if/when BTC drops.

[IamNotSure]

I know it's probably luck but PETA has already found 4 blocks, for 41 BTC only.

Luck factor is 72.2%, 558.6%, 167.9% and 579.7%. I guess that when the luck factor is 100%, you get more or less the same in solo and in pool ?

What would be the pro and cons of solo mining, and is it possible and/or advisable ?

[rdyoung]

I know it's probably luck but PETA has already found 4 blocks, for 41 BTC only.

Luck factor is 72.2%, 558.6%, 167.9% and 579.7%. I guess that when the luck factor is 100%, you get more or less the same in solo and in pool ?

What would be the pro and cons of solo mining, and is it possible and/or advisable ?

That's also known as the gamblers fallacy.

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_Fallacy

That article on wiki is a must read for everyone involved in crypto mining.

[MonkeyBear68]

Here is another tool I found that can be used to gauge the current levels of difficulty and how it has increased in the last 30, 60 and 90 days:

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

You can also select various miners from different companies and set various parameters to see how they will perform. Please keep in mind that the costs for the miners that are given might not be what CryptX has paid for the PETA mining hardware. Also I agree with others that difficulty will NOT continue to increase at 20% every two weeks as it has in the recent past, also hash rate will stabilize. The above link will give everyone a picture of hash rate and difficulty increases as time progresses.

Regarding the value that Bitcoin has to be at to make running a Cointerra miner profitable (assuming the miner itself has been paid for), the calculator above indicates a value of $13.75 a BTC will just cover electricity costs. I have confirmed this number using my own calculations assuming 0.6 Watts per GH as the power consumption for a Cointerra miner and 0.15 per Kilowatt hour. I do not believe we will see Bitcoin much below the recent low of $400.00, so no worries there. Also the calculation uses current hash rate.

Reinvestment is the key to ensuring our dividends remain consistent once the initial 700 TH/s is achieved, I fully believe we are in good hands as CryptX has shown that he is on the lookout for us shareholders. In the following months after the mine is fully operational we can judge how well our dividends stay consistent through the 35% reinvestment strategy. As a shareholder I definitely would be open to increasing the percentage going toward reinvestment, if it was needed to stabilize dividend levels that were decreasing due to being unable to keep up with difficulty increases.

It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out in the next few months.  

I definitely would be open to solo mining once we get over 1% of the total hash power. Not certain how others feel about this?

[N[e]wBie]

solo has to be the best approach when we hit enough of the market share to have several blocks per quarter

[altoidmintz]

Solo = yes...BUT 1) Get online first, go solo second. That is, low priority.
                       2) When we go solo, set up merged mining as well else we forego some income.