GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[bobabouey2]

New volume record, $300k traded at $50+.

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

[1714863174]

1714863174

[1714863174]

1714863174

[David Rabahy]

New volume record, $300k traded at $50+.

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

It does not seem like much of an opportunity to me.  Although the immediate sell price is great right now, the buying path is encumbered by the delay for the accreditation process (again) besides the additional fees, etc.  I'm long-minded; do I really need this hassle?

[elux]

New volume record, $300k traded at $50+.

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

It does not seem like much of an opportunity to me.  Although the immediate sell price is great right now, the buying path is encumbered by the delay for the accreditation process (again) besides the additional fees, etc.  I'm long-minded; do I really need this hassle?

Interesting. Do you feel like you lack the requisite knowledge and skills to (easily) re-buy and secure coins from other exchanges? Are there tax reasons?

Naively, from the outside, it seems like an opportunity to double your coins/money at the cost of filling out a form.

What am I not seeing here?

[bad trader]

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

It does not seem like much of an opportunity to me.  Although the immediate sell price is great right now, the buying path is encumbered by the delay for the accreditation process (again) besides the additional fees, etc.  I'm long-minded; do I really need this hassle?

If you are long minded, the delays shouldn't matter? You should be able to double or almost double the shares you sell, right?

Are you waiting for an even better arbitrage opportunity?

[skivrmt]

New volume record, $300k traded at $50+.

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

It does not seem like much of an opportunity to me.  Although the immediate sell price is great right now, the buying path is encumbered by the delay for the accreditation process (again) besides the additional fees, etc.  I'm long-minded; do I really need this hassle?

Interesting. Do you feel like you lack the requisite knowledge and skills to (easily) re-buy and secure coins from other exchanges? Are there tax reasons?

Naively, from the outside, it seems like an opportunity to double your coins/money at the cost of filling out a form.

What am I not seeing here?

Many people who own this own it via a qualified account, IRA, Roth etc since it was the only opportunity to buy via that vehicle.  Same basically goes for GBTC now.  No real arb opp if you held BIT in an IRA or similar type of account.

[David Rabahy]

New volume record, $300k traded at $50+.

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

It does not seem like much of an opportunity to me.  Although the immediate sell price is great right now, the buying path is encumbered by the delay for the accreditation process (again) besides the additional fees, etc.  I'm long-minded; do I really need this hassle?

Interesting. Do you feel like you lack the requisite knowledge and skills to (easily) re-buy and secure coins from other exchanges? Are there tax reasons?

Naively, from the outside, it seems like an opportunity to double your coins/money at the cost of filling out a form.

What am I not seeing here?

It's in a qualified retirement account, i.e. Roth IRA.  I can and have easily obtained Bitcoins from a wide variety of avenues.  I have enough non-retirement Bitcoins for now; thank you.  To take advantage of the supposed arbitrage opportunity would involve;

1) waiting until my BIT shares actually arrive at my custodian (in-progress; should be soon (next week?))
2) place sell order (hopefully easy & quick)
3) use proceeds to purchase more BIT shares at NAV via my custodian (pain in the butt, prove I am accredited again, medallion signature guarantee, ...)
4) if I want to do it again then wait 12 months and return to step 1

[David Rabahy]

Btw, my money would be out of Bitcoin for awhile risking missing out on a rise until I could get back in.  I fully understand that I could hedge that with non-retirement funds but then when I close the hedge I'd have a capital transaction to report; nuisance.

[David Rabahy]

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

It does not seem like much of an opportunity to me.  Although the immediate sell price is great right now, the buying path is encumbered by the delay for the accreditation process (again) besides the additional fees, etc.  I'm long-minded; do I really need this hassle?

If you are long minded, the delays shouldn't matter? You should be able to double or almost double the shares you sell, right?

Are you waiting for an even better arbitrage opportunity?

If I could sell and then use the proceeds to quickly and easily purchase more BIT shares at NAV then of course but there's nothing quick and easy about it.  It's the timing that hurts the most.  The extra work of proving I am accredited again would be worth it I suppose.  But if I miss a rise while out of BIT shares messing around with this game isn't worth the risk to me.  How much can BIT shares (Bitcoin) rise in the couple of weeks or more that it would take to move my proceeds back in?  I don't want to miss the big party trying to grab a fast gain.

[Chef Ramsay]

Interesting that this GBTC thing is all situated and having a year behind the original shareholders when it appears this market may be turning a new leaf. Coincidence?

[gotmilk_]

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.

It does not seem like much of an opportunity to me.  Although the immediate sell price is great right now, the buying path is encumbered by the delay for the accreditation process (again) besides the additional fees, etc.  I'm long-minded; do I really need this hassle?

If you are long minded, the delays shouldn't matter? You should be able to double or almost double the shares you sell, right?

Are you waiting for an even better arbitrage opportunity?

If I could sell and then use the proceeds to quickly and easily purchase more BIT shares at NAV then of course but there's nothing quick and easy about it.  It's the timing that hurts the most.  The extra work of proving I am accredited again would be worth it I suppose.  But if I miss a rise while out of BIT shares messing around with this game isn't worth the risk to me.  How much can BIT shares (Bitcoin) rise in the couple of weeks or more that it would take to move my proceeds back in?  I don't want to miss the big party trying to grab a fast gain.

GBTC price will probably continue to be 50-70% above BTC price for next month (or more?). So I guess buying first and than selling isn't so risky... Or? Not saying it is safe to buy, just want to hear your opinion  

[bad trader]

If I could sell and then use the proceeds to quickly and easily purchase more BIT shares at NAV then of course but there's nothing quick and easy about it.  It's the timing that hurts the most.  The extra work of proving I am accredited again would be worth it I suppose.  But if I miss a rise while out of BIT shares messing around with this game isn't worth the risk to me.  How much can BIT shares (Bitcoin) rise in the couple of weeks or more that it would take to move my proceeds back in?  I don't want to miss the big party trying to grab a fast gain.

I understand. If I was doing arbitrage on bitcoin, I would try to set it up so I can buy and sell at the same time. (I didn't realize you were talking about delays between selling and buying.)

[David Rabahy]

GBTC price will probably continue to be 50-70% above BTC price for next month (or more?). So I guess buying first and than selling isn't so risky... Or? Not saying it is safe to buy, just want to hear your opinion  

I suppose the GBTC price comes at a premium because the source (people like me) is constrained and the demand (people like you) is less so.  I'm unlikely to change my mind soon so if that's common then the source will continue to be constrained *but* what will you and yours be thinking?  Are your funds retirement or non-retirement funds?  Playing GBTC is just like playing BTC or anything else.  That GBTC is loosely anchored to BTC is only mildly interesting?

[bobabouey2]

It's in a qualified retirement account, i.e. Roth IRA.  I can and have easily obtained Bitcoins from a wide variety of avenues.  I have enough non-retirement Bitcoins for now; thank you.  To take advantage of the supposed arbitrage opportunity would involve;

1) waiting until my BIT shares actually arrive at my custodian (in-progress; should be soon (next week?))
2) place sell order (hopefully easy & quick)
3) use proceeds to purchase more BIT shares at NAV via my custodian (pain in the butt, prove I am accredited again, medallion signature guarantee, ...)
4) if I want to do it again then wait 12 months and return to step 1

I didn't know it was so cumbersome.  I've rarely seen accredited investor processes needing proof of accredited status (you just make the representation), and I've never seen one requiring medallion signature guarantees.  

But, those were VC / "friend and family" type investments, so less "public" than BIT.  So, maybe they need to be more careful.

Still, you'd think it would be more streamlined if you have already purchased from them.  Have you checked they'd make you go through the whole process again?

[chriswen]

The premium might even increase as demand increases and we don't see COIN launching.

[David Rabahy]

If I could sell and then use the proceeds to quickly and easily purchase more BIT shares at NAV then of course but there's nothing quick and easy about it.  It's the timing that hurts the most.  The extra work of proving I am accredited again would be worth it I suppose.  But if I miss a rise while out of BIT shares messing around with this game isn't worth the risk to me.  How much can BIT shares (Bitcoin) rise in the couple of weeks or more that it would take to move my proceeds back in?  I don't want to miss the big party trying to grab a fast gain.

I understand. If I was doing arbitrage on bitcoin, I would try to set it up so I can buy and sell at the same time. (I didn't realize you were talking about delays between selling and buying.)

If the situation were different, i.e. trivially quick and easy, than I'd arbitrage the hell out of GBTC until it was at parity (taking into account the ~0.1 factor) with BTC.

[gotmilk_]

GBTC price will probably continue to be 50-70% above BTC price for next month (or more?). So I guess buying first and than selling isn't so risky... Or? Not saying it is safe to buy, just want to hear your opinion  

I suppose the GBTC price comes at a premium because the source (people like me) is constrained and the demand (people like you) is less so.  I'm unlikely to change my mind soon so if that's common then the source will continue to be constrained *but* what will you and yours be thinking?  Are your funds retirement or non-retirement funds?  Playing GBTC is just like playing BTC or anything else.  That GBTC is loosely anchored to BTC is only mildly interesting?

Fair enough
Well I'm not from US...

[David Rabahy]

Still, you'd think it would be more streamlined if you have already purchased from them.  Have you checked they'd make you go through the whole process again?

Yeppers.

[bad trader]

Well, the daily volume was ~1480.7 BTC.



If the volume rises and stays in the thousands and a decent chunk of it goes into arbitrage (maybe not), it should have a noticeable direct effect on BTC prices.

[marcus_of_augustus]

If I could sell and then use the proceeds to quickly and easily purchase more BIT shares at NAV then of course but there's nothing quick and easy about it.  It's the timing that hurts the most.  The extra work of proving I am accredited again would be worth it I suppose.  But if I miss a rise while out of BIT shares messing around with this game isn't worth the risk to me.  How much can BIT shares (Bitcoin) rise in the couple of weeks or more that it would take to move my proceeds back in?  I don't want to miss the big party trying to grab a fast gain.

I understand. If I was doing arbitrage on bitcoin, I would try to set it up so I can buy and sell at the same time. (I didn't realize you were talking about delays between selling and buying.)

If the situation were different, i.e. trivially quick and easy, than I'd arbitrage the hell out of GBTC until it was at parity (taking into account the ~0.1 factor) with BTC.

Thanks for your view-from-the-cockpit accounts on this  ... makes the seemingly mysterious GBTC pricing more understandable hearing incentives, practicalities, etc for trading this instrument.

Now I'm wondering if GBTC is actually closer to the true price of bitcoin, i.e. on a fully regulated exchange without all the quote stuffing, order spoofing and crazy manipulation rampant on stamp, finex, OKCoin, etc.

Sometimes those prices on existing exchanges look totally fabricated, all moving exactly in lockstep, $10 step changes up or down ...

[coinableS]

The #1 in USD volume on OTCQX today was RHHBY (Roche Holding Ltd) that did $21 million. GBTC did $750,020 in USD volume today. That's 3.5% of the #1 traded symbol of the QX market, not a bad figure IMO. Today there was a total $125 million in volume for all of OTCQX market. If you calculate it GBTC was 0.5% of that. Not a bad slice of the pie if you ask me.