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Author Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer  (Read 262325 times)
jl2012 (OP)
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December 03, 2014, 02:39:29 AM
 #881

Updated. I missed the data point of 1 Dec. Does anyone have it?

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cr1776
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December 03, 2014, 02:52:24 AM
 #882

No big move.update later

What normalizing factor did you use?

The raw numbers for last week and this were:

137,347 (without the NF)

137,506

It might be helpful to include the raw numbers on the main chart or at least include the NF used.

P.s.  Don't have 12/1, sorry.
fewcoins
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December 03, 2014, 03:17:04 AM
 #883

After this auction bitcoin will bomb again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again...  until  Lips sealed
jl2012 (OP)
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December 03, 2014, 03:52:40 AM
 #884

No big move.update later

What normalizing factor did you use?

The raw numbers for last week and this were:

137,347 (without the NF)

137,506

It might be helpful to include the raw numbers on the main chart or at least include the NF used.

P.s.  Don't have 12/1, sorry.

The normalizing factor is based on the latest actual holding figure of 31 Oct:

NF = 106840 / (100000*36.69/33.59) = 0.9781

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December 03, 2014, 04:20:47 PM
 #885

Haven't looked into this for a month and a half or so... this looks really bullish in my books! There's some decent buying pressure apparently. I gotta say, I believe it is a good time to buy, at least if you're in for the long run. People investing that much money usually have some experience and don't lose their nerves on the first bulltrap.

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December 03, 2014, 04:36:34 PM
 #886

After this auction bitcoin will bomb again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again...  until  Lips sealed

...until it hits the price you want to buy at?

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
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December 03, 2014, 05:19:17 PM
 #887

After this auction bitcoin will bomb again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again... and again...  until  Lips sealed

...until it hits the price you want to buy at?

Or until his T-R-O-L  (L) and F-U-D keys are worn out.  ;-)
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December 03, 2014, 05:30:14 PM
 #888

Damn second market, you crazy.

Maybe buyers waiting to get in on the auction?
jl2012 (OP)
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December 06, 2014, 04:00:00 PM
 #889

Data since Nov 2014 updated with new normalization factor

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December 09, 2014, 04:02:04 PM
 #890

48.000 BTC bought.

https://twitter.com/BitcoinTrust/status/542341054557872129
nightengale
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December 09, 2014, 04:37:41 PM
 #891


Bought by the syndicate, to be distributed to individual bidders. Some will probably stay with BIT, but some will probably go elsewhere.
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December 09, 2014, 06:08:50 PM
 #892


Bought by the syndicate, to be distributed to individual bidders. Some will probably stay with BIT, but some will probably go elsewhere.

The syndicate was organized by SecondMarket, but it has nothing to do with SMBIT.

In principle, SMBIT should buy bitcoin only when some investor buys SMBIT fund shares.  After months of stagnation, there were some large buys by SMBIT over the past month.

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
Vlad2Vlad
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December 09, 2014, 09:28:50 PM
 #893



The syndicate was organized by SecondMarket, but it has nothing to do with SMBIT.

In principle, SMBIT should buy bitcoin only when some investor buys SMBIT fund shares.  After months of stagnation, there were some large buys by SMBIT over the past month.

What are large buys exactly?

And where is this info listed.

BIT should go live very very soon.  I think Barry held off to get this batch of coins cheaply before BIT goes live and drives the price up significantly.

I also think this is what gave Barry Silbert the guts to bid higher than everyone else; he knows BIT is a done deal.

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December 09, 2014, 11:42:22 PM
 #894

The syndicate was organized by SecondMarket, but it has nothing to do with SMBIT.

In principle, SMBIT should buy bitcoin only when some investor buys SMBIT fund shares.  After months of stagnation, there were some large buys by SMBIT over the past month.

What are large buys exactly?

And where is this info listed.

BIT should go live very very soon.  I think Barry held off to get this batch of coins cheaply before BIT goes live and drives the price up significantly.

I also think this is what gave Barry Silbert the guts to bid higher than everyone else; he knows BIT is a done deal.

Check page 1 of this thread.  user @jl2012 has been tabulating and interpreting the data posted by SMBIT on their site.

You may be confusing Barry Silbert's SMBIT fund with the Winklevoss twins'  COIN ETF.

The COIN ETF is still waiting for approval by the SEC.  No expected date for a decision.

SMBIT has been alive since 2013-09-25, but is not traded on any open market.  A client has to buy SMBIT shares in dollars from the company that manages the fund; the company then buys BTC for him  (1 share = 0.1 BTC, at the current BTC market price) and keeps them safe. After six months the client has the option to continue holding the shares or to liquidate them, i.e. sell them back to the company for dollars (still 1 share = 0.1 BTC at the current BTC market price; minus some storage and processing fees).  Clients are not allowed to sell the shares to anyone else.

SMBIT had promised that "soon" there would be some open market for their shares, so that clients could trade them among themselves.  I believe the original promised date for that was Q2 2014; is this right?  That hasn't happened yet. (Is that what you meant by "go live"?)


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Vlad2Vlad
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December 09, 2014, 11:54:41 PM
Last edit: December 10, 2014, 12:27:00 AM by Vlad2Vlad
 #895


BIT is second market's version of COIN without the long SEC approval process.  It's supposed to go live this quarter, per Barry, about 6 weeks ago.

So far BIT has only been opened to rich high net worth people.  Once BIT gets listed [on the OTC market] anyone will be able to buy it, basically the same thing as COIN.

COIN of course will be the premium version but BIT should bring in a lot of new investor money and increase liquidity.

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MoreFun
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December 10, 2014, 12:49:39 AM
 #896


It's supposed to go live this quarter, per Barry, about 6 weeks ago.


I wouldn't rely on this. Year ago Silbert stated we are 3-6 months away from Wall Street moving big way into BTC. After a year I can't see anything of that.
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December 10, 2014, 02:05:10 AM
 #897


It's supposed to go live this quarter, per Barry, about 6 weeks ago.


I wouldn't rely on this. Year ago Silbert stated we are 3-6 months away from Wall Street moving big way into BTC. After a year I can't see anything of that.

Have to second this. After figuring out that Barry is often long on promises and short on delivery, he doesn't excite me as much as he used to.
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December 10, 2014, 02:24:49 AM
 #898

Barry is working to get the BIT listed here: http://www.otcmarkets.com/marketplaces/otcqx

Barry will deliver and I expect it to happen soon. And when it happens... To the moon  Cheesy
jl2012 (OP)
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December 10, 2014, 02:33:18 AM
 #899

596 XBT bought yesterday

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December 10, 2014, 02:45:26 AM
 #900

BIT is second market's version of COIN without the long SEC approval process.  It's supposed to go live this quarter, per Barry, about 6 weeks ago.

So far BIT has only been opened to rich high net worth people.  Once BIT gets listed [on the OTC market] anyone will be able to buy it, basically the same thing as COIN.

COIN of course will be the premium version

A frustrating aspect of bitcoin is that there is essentially no data about the "bitcoin economy".  Every indicator that we would need to predict the price and evaluate its investment potential is hidden by the anonymity and globality of the protocol and by the private and unregulated character of the companies.  There are practically no public audits, market statistics, open policies, ...  One can extract lots of numbers from the blockchain, but most of the traffic there is just coins trashing around between addresses that belong to the same person, and no one can tell how much meaningful transactiosn are there, and what they are.  Investing in bitcoin is like jumping over a cliff in a foggy night, without seeing the other margin.  It cannot be a rational decision, only a statement of blind faith, that only fools would do.

In particular, we do not really understand how SMBIT operates, whether those numbers are real investments by the public or or self-investments by the managing company, who are the clients and why they choose to invest in SMBIT rather than buy bitcoin directly.   The contract terms are revealed only to investors that they have approves, it seems.  Are they required to strictly hold 0.1 BTC per share, and buy them immediately? Or do they have some leeway, to wait a few days for the best price?  Or are they only bound to return the right amount of dollars at the end, as defined the current market price?

I don't understand how they can sell their shares to US residents and citizens without approval of the SEC, even without an open market.  Perhaps they don't, and only sell to non-Americans?  Is the SMBIT managing company based in the US, or in a foreign country?

Someone claimed on this thread that they have been ordered by the SEC to stop liquidating their shares, but can still sell them -- which does not make sense to me.  Is that true?  If so, what is the reason? Would they tell investors if that is true?

Quote
BIT should bring in a lot of new investor money and increase liquidity.

I do not see why having an open market for SMBIT shares (or even the possibility of trading them over-the-counter) would bring more money to the bitcoin economy.  OK, people would be able to invest less than 25'000 USD on SMBIT shares --- but, at that level, they could buy bitcoin at the exchanges instead.  Clients who have SMBIT shares would be able to liquidate them in the market instead of with SMBIT; but they could do that with bitcoin too.  Since the liquidation value of SMBIT shares is pegged to the BTC price, and they pay no interest or dividends,  their market value cannot be much higher than their face value.  The market for SMBIT shares is likely to be a lot less liquid than that of bitcoin.

By the way, the Falcon bitcoin fund closed because of low demand:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/falcon-global-capital-closes-bitcoin-fund-because-of-slow-demand.html

GABI is having problems with their banks.  Does anyone know how Pantera's PBP is doing?  And what about that fund in Malta, that Matonis was advertising a couple months ago?


Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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