Economic Devastation

[iamback]

The USSA is strong-arming all other countries to basically adopt all their laws, or else

The countries that refuse risk being "corrected".

It is not only that. Every country that is bankrupt from socialism is willingly embracing the hunt for capital for taxes to fund the "99% against the 1%". The sheep don't yet realize the 1% includes them, because the socialism cancer kills the host.

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[B.A.S.]

If history show us anything...

...its that the participants in statism (aka society run by government) all game the system for maximum short-term individual gain and there is no global (in the time domain, i.e. long-term) optimization feedback mechanism. This what the Petri dish analogy was about in my essay linked from the OP.

States compete and thus evolve.  Ideologies compete and thus evolve.  

Statism attempts to create an artificial global feedback in the form of enforceable property rights, laws, and taxation. Thus statism is simply a form of collectivism on a grand scale and arises naturally from individuals seeking to protect themselves from the terror of unbounded anarchism (murder, theft, warlords, chaos, war).

Statism does not change human nature and human nature dictates that the participants in any collective order will always maximize their individual short-term gains. Without a global feedback mechanism the inevitable result is the progressive deterioration and eventual collapse of the collective back into anarchism.

I bolded a chunk of your quote. What's interesting is how the US operated in the 1800s roughly before the police were invented. According to many reports, there actually wasn't a lot of crime or anarchy. The masses policed themselves for crimes and shunned/took care of individuals that were not playing by the collective rules. Society takes care of itself on its own.

IMO, its not human nature to succeed individually when in an environment that is only ruled by mother nature. Evolution wouldn't let this happen, it wasn't wise to go it alone. You couldn't survive.

Now enter an invisible hand (the State) that controls most things... every individual is now polarized "against" their fellow man because they have to compete with them to get things from the State (who controls everything). This is where the the individualism comes from.

^anecdote: I just bought a vehicle the other day. A classic vehicle that is 35 years old. I traded an old vehicle for it. No money was exchanged. The State wants me to pay 6.5% sales tax on the "purchase" of a 35 year old vehicle that I paid nothing for. I refused saying I didn't need to pay tax on something I didn't pay for. Their reasoning: You must put something down on the line (sales tax line of the title form).

[minor-transgression]

"Only give me control of a Nation's flow of credit, and I care not who makes its laws"

Taking Greece as an example, does the State and its decisions regarding taxation
have any relevance in the game?

Greece was not forced to be corrupted and to contract that many debts.

Hence you are saying the Greek State should have full responsibility
for actions decided elsewhere? Or are you saying that Greece should
not have ceded their power to create debt to the ECB? 

[iamback]

What's interesting is how the US operated in the 1800s roughly before the police were invented. According to many reports, there actually wasn't a lot of crime or anarchy.

That is not what Hollywood wants us to believe with their Western and Mafia flicks.

I live in a place with low government spending and police coverage. It is chaotic. Just today I was pointing out to the Homeowners Association that their rulebook is a farce because they have no effective enforcement mechanism (e.g. not supposed to park car along the road and must always pull into the driveway, but the violations are too numerous to count and their enforcement mechanism is to send repeated letters and put on a list    ). Their response was defiant. Filipinos never met a rule they couldn't bend (or use as a way to gain privilege and do corruption).

Maybe it is a cultural difference?

P.S. OTOH, I read that in some places in Germany men are not allowed to urinate in the standing position, because the sound of the trickle disturbs the neighbor.

(sometimes I feel my German blood, I really hate inefficient bullshit. Other times, I feel my native American and southern French blood where I also hate rules)

P.S.S. Anyone contemplating a move to Asia (Singapore, etc) should definitely visit first. And be very observant. Because cultures differ a lot.

[picolo]

What's interesting is how the US operated in the 1800s roughly before the police were invented. According to many reports, there actually wasn't a lot of crime or anarchy.

That is not what Hollywood wants us to believe with their Western and Mafia flicks.

I live in a place with low government spending and police coverage. It is chaotic. Just today I was pointing out to the Homeowners Association that their rulebook is a farce because they have no effective enforcement mechanism (e.g. not supposed to park car along the road and must always pull into the driveway, but the violations are too numerous to count and their enforcement mechanism is to send repeated letters and put on a list    ). Their response was defiant. Filipinos never met a rule they couldn't bend (or use as a way to gain privilege and do corruption).

Maybe it is a cultural difference?

P.S. OTOH, I read that in some places in Germany men are not allowed to urinate in the standing position, because the sound of the trickle disturbs the neighbor.

(sometimes I feel my German blood, I really hate inefficient bullshit. Other times, I feel my native American and southern French blood where I also hate rules)

P.S.S. Anyone contemplating a move to Asia (Singapore, etc) should definitely visit first. And be very observant. Because cultures differ a lot.

The USA went from nothing to the richest nation on earth with very low taxes and a small governement.

[iamback]

http://www.keprtv.com/news/local/POLICE-SHOOTING-Looking-back-at-other-officer-involved-shootings-292520281.html

Drugs. Roids. Drugs. Roids.

[B.A.S.]

http://www.keprtv.com/news/local/POLICE-SHOOTING-Looking-back-at-other-officer-involved-shootings-292520281.html

Drugs. Roids. Drugs. Roids.

"Is there a culture of fear among officers now?" asked Gina Lazara.

"No, there is not. There is not a culture of fear," said Captain Cobb.

Great article post by the way.

There is no more violent crime today then there was in yesteryear. However; today there is a lot more police presence and pre-meditated violence on the part of police. The US has softened; becoming a weak shell of its former self. The militant/police state is coming (if not already here).

I'm not as doom and gloom as some, but men arm yourselves and begin to cultivate skills useful to your ancestors. The US is not going to change overnight, but self-reliance is going to take on a whole new meaning in years to come (and it doesn't mean grocery shopping alone).

[B.A.S.]

The USA went from nothing to the richest nation on earth with very low taxes and a small governement.

Jefferson had it right with Agrarianism. Too bad it didn't stick.

[B.A.S.]

That is not what Hollywood wants us to believe with their Western and Mafia flicks.

I live in a place with low government spending and police coverage. It is chaotic. Just today I was pointing out to the Homeowners Association that their rulebook is a farce because they have no effective enforcement mechanism (e.g. not supposed to park car along the road and must always pull into the driveway, but the violations are too numerous to count and their enforcement mechanism is to send repeated letters and put on a list    ). Their response was defiant. Filipinos never met a rule they couldn't bend (or use as a way to gain privilege and do corruption).

Maybe it is a cultural difference?

P.S. OTOH, I read that in some places in Germany men are not allowed to urinate in the standing position, because the sound of the trickle disturbs the neighbor.

(sometimes I feel my German blood, I really hate inefficient bullshit. Other times, I feel my native American and southern French blood where I also hate rules)

P.S.S. Anyone contemplating a move to Asia (Singapore, etc) should definitely visit first. And be very observant. Because cultures differ a lot.

My German blood boils as well on things. It's built into the heritage to be efficient and precise. Germany has become highly feminized in recent years (along with the US). Doesn't surprise me about the urinating debacle. What's sad is that this will be the norm for a generation or so until they realize how too much progressivism can be extremely detrimental.

It's a catch 22 regarding the rulebook of society. If you don't enforce it, people take advantage. If you enforce it, people try to shirk it. In ancient times, breaking the rules = banishment sometimes. This was enough to stop most people from breaking the rules. Today, not so much. A few slaps on the wrist or a large cash donation to Uncle Sam and it's like nothing happened. Today, breaking the rules (in the US) is something of an accomplishment met with Gov't handouts and minority entitlements.

Somedays, I wish people had more pride in doing things themselves like they used to. I knew people growing up that were scared to go on food stamps (even though they needed help bad) because of the shame it brought on their families. Instead, the father worked two jobs to dig the family out of poverty. He certainly didn't go out and buy a new cell phone and a tattoo with the savings.

[OROBTC]

...

Grrr...  I had a wonderful long post nearly completed and just lost it, "fat finger error", grr...


CoinCube

You thread has evolved very nicely, I read ideas here that I see nowhere else.  Shine on!

iamback, B.A.S., picolo

I agree with all of you re loss of liberty and that personal freedom (and small government) was the key to the rise of America.  Clearly we are in a decline.  Does it match the rest of the world's decline?

Great comments, keep 'em coming.

*   *   *

Re arming up, YES, I agree that as many Americans (inc. women) as possible should have firearms, be proficient in their use and have deep stocks of ammunition.  Currently there is an attempt at an "Ammo Grab" here underway, namely a version of AR-15 ammo much used by recreational shooters (it's cheap ammo).

Disclosure: I practice what I preach: I own a Saiga "AK-47" (semi-auto) and a Beretta 9 mm.  I have ample stocks of ammo for both.

*   *   *

iamback raised an issue some two weeks or so ago that has stuck with me...  Namely to improve (educate) oneself.  I am considering learning Python, a computer programming language.  Python appears to be relatively easy by programming standards and also appears to be friendly to math & statistics programs I am interested in (to learn more about our company's sales data).  This (of course) will not be easy...  But, I can take my time, and just learn what I need and/or want.

Python might be of some use to me to learn more about Bitcoin, perhaps even the newly hot topic of placing data on the blockchain (via OP_RETURN operations).  Most of the "guts" of Bitcoin and the blockchain are black boxes to me, I know next to nothing about how they work under the hood...*


* Sorry for all of the bad metaphors  

[iamback]

Grrr...  I had a wonderful long post nearly completed and just lost it, "fat finger error", grr...

The "Preview" button saves a draft on the server.

I am considering learning Python, a computer programming language.  Python appears to be relatively easy by programming standards and also appears to be friendly to math & statistics programs I am interested in (to learn more about our company's sales data).  This (of course) will not be easy...  But, I can take my time, and just learn what I need and/or want.

Python might be of some use to me to learn more about Bitcoin, perhaps even the newly hot topic of placing data on the blockchain (via OP_RETURN operations).  Most of the "guts" of Bitcoin and the blockchain are black boxes to me, I know next to nothing about how they work under the hood...*


* Sorry for all of the bad metaphors  

Most programmers learn C first which one or two steps above the lowest level (closest to twiddling connections at the transistor level in the hardware) programming. In my case, I self-taught first machine code (from a book I read about Microprocessors when I was 13), then self-taught BASIC on an Apple II at age 17, then C.

Python is an interpreted and slightly higher-level language. But semantically from theory of type design something like Scala or Haskell is really high level (e.g. higher-kinded typing).



Alas, I think you have a mountain to climb with understanding the interworkings of Bitcoin and doubt learning rudimentary Python will get you there.

I suggest instead pick some programming that is simpler and interests you. For example, I wrote an accounting and invoicing system for Pest Control client in my first year of college (in DBase II on an Apple II).

I attempted two guides for novices:

http://www.coolpage.com/copute/edu/Intro%20to%20Computers.html
http://www.coolpage.com/copute/edu/HTML%20Intro.html

Khan Academy is also helpful:

https://www.khanacademy.org/computing/computer-programming

[OROBTC]

...

iamback

Thank you for your comments re programming.  At 59, well, I will have to make a reasoned decision on how to spend time & energy learning a programming language...

I saw earlier this evening (here at bitcointalk) that PHP is tied into OP_RETURN (I am interested in the whole "putting data on the blockchain" subject, my comments are on other threads), but it looks like I would need a Linux box, groan..........

I know a young guy who is interested in digitization of documents.  Posting (hashes of) docs via proofofexistence.com and bitproof.com is an interesting subject that may fit in to a business idea he is looking at.  SOMEONE, IMO, is going to make some serious dough finding the right business model of putting docs, one way or another, on the blockchain.

A company I saw at TNABC (factom.org) is working hard in the same general space.

*   *   *

But, if my efforts come to naught, that's OK...  I'll just stick with analyzing our bearing sales in Peru and buy some gold when I get some of the profits sent up.

[iamback]

OROBTC, frankly the two most important things you can probably do are:

1. Make sure you understand Armstrong's predictions exactly (not vaguely).

2. Understand my technical and cryptocurreny posts. (for example I think putting documents on the blockchain is nonsense)

(apologies for the hubris but I need to be efficient and I am in rush)

Learning programming can be lucrative. I would suggest learning web programming.

I was reading Armstrong's blog in August 2012 when he predicted the doubling of the US share markets over next few years (now it is clear the peak won't be until probably 2016 or 2017):



Now he is predicting the German DAX and Europe will peak on 2015.75, then Europe will crash and burn:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/28/so-whats-up-with-the-dax/

Previously I have warned that the DAX would press higher as the object of capital flight within Europe. The problem we are facing is that the DAX could peak-out with this ECM turning point. If this were to unfold with a high in the DAX to the day of the ECM, this will be the kiss-of-death for Europe and it would be the strongest possible warning that a dollar rally will create massive deflation ahead. We can see our Energy Models are pointing to a run-up that is more indicative of a serious high forming rather than just a temporary high.

[CoinCube]

iamback raised an issue some two weeks or so ago that has stuck with me...  Namely to improve (educate) oneself.  I am considering learning Python, a computer programming language.  Python appears to be relatively easy by programming standards and also appears to be friendly to math & statistics programs I am interested in (to learn more about our company's sales data).  This (of course) will not be easy...  But, I can take my time, and just learn what I need and/or want.

Most of the "guts" of Bitcoin and the blockchain are black boxes to me, I know next to nothing about how they work under the hood...*

OROBTC I think your are wise to focus on the importance of programming. I believe that in the very near future programming will rank alongside reading, writing, and arithmetic as essential and basic skills required by all if they wish to succeed. Programming is a language and with all languages the best results come to those who start early.

I am in the same situation as you with no programming knowledge and unable to follow the technicals of Bitcoin or the blockchain.
Depending on your free time and commitments it may or may not be the best use of your time to correct this deficiency in yourself.  I have decided to instead to focus on making sure my children do not suffer from the same illiteracy.

In my area there are several programming classes for children.
https://www.codingwithkids.com/#!/
They start with scratch (a very simple programming interface) and move on to JavaScript, HTML, and CSS.

As kids get more advanced there are local options for them to take python classes.
http://techventurekids.org/codecamps/

These opportunities are not available in all areas and are one of the major reasons I relocated my family to the pacific northwest.

Re arming up, YES, I agree that as many Americans (inc. women) as possible should have firearms, be proficient in their use and have deep stocks of ammunition.  Currently there is an attempt at an "Ammo Grab" here underway, namely a version of AR-15 ammo much used by recreational shooters (it's cheap ammo).

It is always smart to be self sufficient especially when it comes to the ability to defend yourself. However, I agree with iamback's comments (re-posted below). Armed individuals will not stop the overall deterioration. Depending your your situation the best choices are probably
1) Quietly hunker down, hide your assets, keep a low profile and ride out the storm (the storm may last a very long time)
or
2) Arrange for an exit for yourself and/or your children      

You will not stop the State from spiraling into the abyss, because the majority is going to demand expropriation. You can't suddenly change the situation of the majority. The majority has no other option and all the (political or even violent) fighting you do can't give them another option.

The economic reality and trajectory was written into stone decades ago. It can't be altered. The economic reality is what it is.

My advice to everyone is pay off all your debt because (we are) in a deflationary collapse that is underway (see oil under $50 today!)
...

Also radically reduce the risk to unjust IRS audits and assessments, because these will become more common.

Also radically reduce the risk to lawsuits, because these will become more common as westerners get desperate.

Then the next priority is to align your vocation with the Knowledge Age and so you have income even during global economic collapse and your skills are transportable to any location you might choose to move to as the chaos takes form.

[CoinCube]

Learning programming can be lucrative. I would suggest learning web programming.

I ran across this when looking for programming classes for kids. It is for adults so its not what I needed but
it may be a good option for adults looking to learn web programming.
http://www.codingdojo.com/

[iamback]

hide your assets

Hiding assets could at some point be considered a terrorist offense. I realize that is far-fetched (as was a government pulverizing 2000+ people and demolishing 3 skyscrapers in New York City), but I advise everyone to consider the trails you are leaving now.

If you want to truly hide assets, there needs to be no trail.

For example, withdrawing money regularly from the ATM and not having receipts to prove what you spent the money on, could at some point in the future cause you to be guilty (unless proven innocent[1]) for suspicion of purchasing gold to hide your assets.

Don't forget every person on average commits 3 felonies per day in the USA.

Did I not mention "get the f*ck out of the USSA".

I realize I that is an extremist statement. I am currently thinking roughly 2018 or 2019 for the really draconian shift. War should kick in starting 2017. Also we should also see a pandemic.

[1] Upthread we documented that the constitutional principle of "innocent until proven guilty" is being eroded.


Add: note I warned about this in 2010 (that is how far ahead I was in my thinking):

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20327.html

End Game, Gold Investors Will be Destroyed
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Jun 15, 2010 - 02:33 PM GMT
By: Shelby_H_Moore

[iamback]

Rise of the Asian middle class...

The Chinese spit and defecate along the road. Japanese are very conforming society and more like cats than the Chinese who are more like dogs. Japanese sip tea and have many formalities of social behavior. The Chinese gets things done any way they feel like it (did you read about them putting straw in the concrete to save money so the bridges collapsed, the Japanese would never do that!).

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/802703-video-the-chinese-tourists-accused-of-bad-behaviour-in-thailand/

[iamback]

Pettis is really talking about the government (top-down) will need to get out-of-the-way of the (bottom-up) innovators...

http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/can-monetary-policy-turn-argentina-into-japan/

The brave new world of weak demand and frenzied speculation

Last week I had drinks with one of my former Peking University students and we discussed some of the ways the global economy might react to a world adjusting from a global crisis with weak demand and excess liquidity. In no particular order and very informally these are some of the consequences we thought were likely or worth considering:

With their highly diversified financial systems and incentive structures that reward innovation and entrepreneurialism, the US, the UK and perhaps a handful of “Anglo-Saxon” and Scandinavian economies, in their different ways, are especially good at this. Much of Europe and Japan are not. The latter should take steps to increase the amount by which they will benefit from many more years of high risk appetite among investors.

Normally, developing countries only benefit indirectly from periods of abundant capital and excess risk taking because abundant capital tends to lead increased investment in developing countries and higher commodity prices. This, however, is perhaps the first time that excess liquidity has overlapped with a period of crisis and contraction, so it is hard to know what to expect except that the days of historically high hard commodity prices are well behind us (food may be a different matter). I suspect that developing countries are going to lag economically over the next few years largely because of high debt levels.
Why? Because one of the ways the market will probably distinguish between different types of risk is by steering away from highly indebted entities. Excess debt is clearly worrying, and while there will always be investors who are willing to lend, in the aggregate they will probably discriminate in favor of equity-type risks unless policymakers create incentives in the opposite direction.

Developing countries almost never benefit from the high tech boom that typically accompanies periods of excess liquidity because they tend to have limited technology capabilities. Policymakers should consider nonetheless how to take advantage of what capabilities they do posses.
India for example has a vibrant innovation-based sector, but it suffers from low credibility and from regulatory and red-tape constraints that will make it hard for Indian innovation to benefit from global investors’ high risk appetites. New Delhi — and perhaps local state capitals — should focus on addressing these problems. If Indian technology companies are given the regulatory flexibility and if investors find it easy to put money into (and take it out of) Indian technology ventures, we might see India capture some of the benefits of what may be a second or third wave of information technology.

Brazil is another large developing economy with pockets of tremendous innovation but which overall also suffers from low credibility and distorted incentive structures — and way too much debt. I am neither smart nor knowledgeable enough to propose specific policies, but policymakers in Brazil, like in India and in other very large developing economies — and they must be large in order that their relatively small technology sectors can achieve critical mass — must develop an explicit understanding of the institutional constraints and distorted incentive structures that prevent the development of their technology sectors, and take forceful steps to reverse them.

China is weak in high -tech innovation largely because of institutional constraints, including education, regulatory constraints, distorted incentive structures,and a hostile environment for innovative thinking (defying attempts to separate “good” innovative thinking from “bad”).  Overly-enthusiastic American venture capitalists, Chinese policymakers, and Chinese “entrepreneurs”, many of whom have almost become Silicon Valley caricatures will disagree, but in my experience most China, and certainly those involved in technology, are very skeptical about Chinese innovation capabilities. For example, when I taught at Tsinghua University, China’s answer to MIT, my students regularly joked that the only way to turn Tsinghua graduates into high tech innovators was to send them to California.
The main reason for its weak track record in innovation, I would argue, is that in China, like in many countries, there are institutional distortions that directly constrain innovation, as I explain in my blog entry on “social capital”. There are also indirect distortions, most obviously extraordinarily low interest rates and the importance of guangxi, that made accessing credit or developing good relationships with government officials infinitely more profitable, and requiring far less effort, for managers than encouraging innovation.

It is politically too difficult to resolve many of these institutional constraints nationally. In fact we are probably not even moving in the right direction — for example Beijing has recently sharply reduced internet access within China for domestic political reasons, and it is a pretty safe bet that this and other attempts to secure social stability will come at the expense of a culture of innovation.

But if Beijing is reluctant to relax constraints at the national level, it might nonetheless be willing to do so in specific local jurisdictions. If there were pockets within the country operating under different legal, regulatory, tax and cultural systems, and much more tolerant of the political and social characteristics of highly innovative societies, China might see the creation of zones of innovation that would benefit from the favorable global environment. I am skeptical about the impact of the Shanghai free-trade zone on trade or investment, for example, but it could become a more credible center of Chinese innovation under a very different legal and regulatory system  — much as Shanghai was, by the way, in the 1920s and 1930s. China has benefitted in the past from special economic zones, with different laws and regulations, dedicated to manufacturing. It might benefit in the future if it turns these into special “innovation” zones, also with very different laws and regulations —  and above all a far greater appetite for the “bad” things that are always part of highly innovative cultures, including a wide open internet and tolerance for any kind of discussion.

[B.A.S.]

That's the ticket:

Do we (the US) scale back our innovative/entrepreneurial spirit in favor of restructuring the broken (or soon to be) architecture of America and returning to the fundamentals?

OR-

Ramp it up even more, riding the tidal wave all the way to the shore where we enviably crash into the beach suffering an economic depression as great as the 1930s or worse?

[iamback]

That's the ticket:

Do we (the US) scale back our innovative/entrepreneurial spirit in favor of restructuring the broken (or soon to be) architecture of America and returning to the fundamentals?

OR-

Ramp it up even more, riding the tidal wave all the way to the shore where we enviably crash into the beach suffering an economic depression as great as the 1930s or worse?

Huh?

Why do you equate our innovation with what is broken?

Now I think I am reading you are one of those guys who thinks technology and "complexity" are the problem and life would be great if we all returned to the Amish Paradise.