CoinCube (OP)
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March 07, 2015, 09:41:52 AM |
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The experience of pinky who says he has seen the market follow Armstrong's recent predictions is certainly a mark in Armstrong's favor. iamback's belief that Armstrong is legitimate is also favorable as iamback has read all of armstrongs publications and he has shown (based on his own publications) a talent for sorting through complexity and seeing the big picture. I will be the first to admit that the concerns I noted upthread are not sufficient to discredit Armstrong or ignore what he has to say. Below is the list of all the current Armstrong predictions that I am aware of. I will keep an open mind and observe his track record going forward. Armstrong Predictions (compiled by pinky with minor additions): Sovereign Debt Crisis- the sovereign debt crises... target for the actual collapse appeared to begin with the peak of the next wave 2015.75. It appears that the worst may be yet on the horizon between 2015.75 and 2020.05 (January). http://investmentwatchblog.com/martin-a-armstrong-it-appears-that-the-worst-may-be-yet-on-the-horizon-between-2015-75-and-2020-05-january/#2SRM6FkF58Wvwufd.99Pandemic Prediction-Whether or not (Ebola) is the next great plague or we are waiting for it, it is too difficult to say but we are in the red zone for the next one is due. If it is Ebola, it will subside at first and remain contained to its region with devastating results in Africa. But it will then start to spread internationally by 2016 and then reach the climax in just 3.14 years to 2019. So this may be early for the Ebola to be it. However, it seems to qualify with a 60%-90% mortality rate that is up there with the Black Death. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/31/ebola-virus-the-next-plague-due-2019/US Currency Predictions- The spread between German 10 year and US 10 Year Treasuries may prove to be the trade of the century later in the year (short Germany Long US). German rates .45% v 1.84%. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/18/understanding-the-bond-bubble/US Stock Market PredictionsWe are most likely going to see that Phase Transition in US equities unfold with a 2017 high. Just as the 1987 high took place on the half cycle leading into the peak of the ECM in 1989, this time we are likely to perhaps see the US share market peak on the half cycle after 2015.75. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/15/g20-leaders-plead-with-fed-not-to-raise-rates/More US Stock Market PredictionsA month-end closing above 17970 will warn that we can still see an early March high. That may then lead to a retest of support going into June. A low at that time will be very constructive for the longer term looking into 2017. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/17/the-dow-outlook/
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 12:04:39 PM |
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You have said that and you have been wrong. Most analysts have been wrong on Gold in 2014.
What have I been wrong on? I said there would be deadcat bounces in both gold and BTC. The bottoms are still to come below $1000 and $150 respectively.
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 12:14:04 PM Last edit: March 07, 2015, 01:21:03 PM by iamback |
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I added some documentation today to a server-side PHP function I wrote in 2010 (as part of the work I am doing to re-launch a website that I launched in late 2010 or early 2011 but had shutdown due to marketing errors, and chaos that entered my life in 2011): /* Returns 0 if user or user's login id was not specified. Returns false if the specified user's login id is incorrect or expired. Else updates the user's login record in the database and loads the user's current data from the database. By default the user is not specified by the input arguments and is instead retrieved from the $_GET or $_POST client UA global inputs.
The login id is a unique random password issued for each login: to enable timeout, so password not stored on disk[1], and limit activities that can be performed without manually typing login credentials.
Client UA cookies are not employed to *send* the user's login id, because another domain can can cause HTTP requests to be automatically (without user intervention) invoked on our domain with the login credentials attached from the cookie when the user loads the page served by that other domain. CSRF is normally blocked by the browser for XMLHttpRequest but not for source URL for images and JavaScripts which the other domain's page loads: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cross-site_request_forgery&oldid=377197816#Example_and_characteristics
The login id could be safely[1] *stored* in a cookie because other domains do not have access to our domain's cookies in the client UA. Content served from our domain can load the cookie's value from the cookie in the client UA and *send* it with pertainent HTTP requests as a $_GET or $_POST variable: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cross-site_request_forgery&oldid=650281974#Cookie-to-Header_Token
In 2010, I argued to the IETF that only the above CSFR (a.k.a. XSFR) were a security hole and that classifying XSS as a security hole and building a wall around which resources domains (and analogously applications in Apple's app walled garden) is top-down collectivism and would lead to centralized whitelisting of the internet (or the app market in Apple's case): http://www.ietf.org/mail-archive/web/hybi/current/msg03319.html http://www.ietf.org/mail-archive/web/hybi/current/msg03303.html
[1] Cookies are stored on disk which are vulnerable to access by malware. */ static function updateLogin($user_id = 0, $login_id = '') { ... Quoting myself from those linked IETF discussions I participated in the summer of 2010 as follows. I am arguing that (see below for more on this...) allowing user's to choose which sites they trust is more free market and superior security model and results (tangential point: the firewall paradigm will lead to not only a loss of innovation, but centralized whitelisting all of communication and thus complete failure).
Those are not "MUST" that inpringe on any one, they enable a more free market that will be more robust and more secure. So the market is going to force those "MUST" in due time via competition. In long run, it matters not what any standards group decides, because the truth will always win in the market place (after a peak of an erroreous paradigm and its failure and collapse). The importance of standards is they can influence (and hopefully minimize) the amount of human capital mis-allocation that occurs interim to the truth asserting itself in the market naturally. Note the underlined statement is Taleb's anti-fragility point. > Since browsers are, more and more, > becoming execution environments that automatically run the executable code > they download, this is a very important point of restriction. Web pages > should not be able to arbitrarily initiate connections anywhere they want, > as that opens up malicious attack vectors. Since the browser is such a critical focal point of global innovation, it is critical that we don't kill it. I so very strongly disagree. Please read first what I wrote above for the context. The domain that is loading the scripts needs to be held responsible by the user (market place). The only valid argument that can be made against my logic, is that users will visit new sites that they don't yet have any trust judgement on. So then we have to decide what kind of society and culture we want. Do we want a society where we do not trust people we do not know well? The western culture has changed from when I was young to being significantly one that is no longer friendly and trusting of people. In 2006, my car engine blew up in middle of California desert, I walked to a rest stop at 1am and standing under the bright lights near the restroom, I tried to ask approaching people if I could get a ride to next gas station. I was consistently told from a distance "get away, I will call police if you talk or approach me". Western culture has eroded into one where many/some people have no capacity to trust. Whereas here in Philippines, I ran out of gas in a typhoon in the province and was able to wake people up at 2am to help me locate a coke bottle filled with petrol. The fact is that only about 2.5% of the society has criminal aspirations. That does not stop unintended security holes, but clearly the site deserved the bad reputation is got (instead we punished the user who helped illuminate the poor proficiency of MySpace's programmers): http://sonofsamy.wordpress.com/2005/10/04/the-myspace-worm/I believe in a free market and competition. I believe I can outcompete MySpace and I don't want the browser forcing me to be dumbed down to MySpace's lack of proficiency. Let each entity thrive or die in the market place on their own merits. I think you all believe the same, if you really think it through carefully. So we have a choice. Either we can choose to limit innovation or we can choose to let users learn to be warying of new sites that have no well formed reputation in the market place. But then I had a new compromise idea (thank you so much Vladimir for stimulating this). How about not choosing? How about we let the domain choose, and then warn the user in the brower when the domain has chosen no SOP! Yeah that is the optimum solution! So then domains that don't yet have a well formed reputation can offer two versions of their pages. One (default) version would be one for new visitors to use, and the other version would be the one offered to trusting users (experienced with that domain or the domain's reputation) that tells the browser to turn off SOP (from which the domain can offer additional features and innovate). Again the browser would (by default)warn when the user loads the page that says "turn off SOP". >> I think it is pointless to install filtering devices if you depend on >> them >> for security. > > This statement makes no sense at all.
Makes sense to me because I understand mathematically that centralized security is an illusion/oxymoron. It mathematically forces non-use. When humans can not control something, they make a law and pretend they can, which results in putting people in jails for that which can not be stopped because it is mathematically natural. We are already down to the level of blocking most freedom on port 80 and blocking all other ports and innovation (at least in the enterprise slavery zone, which mathematically must decay eventually and probably already has peaked).
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 12:50:37 PM Last edit: March 07, 2015, 03:30:45 PM by iamback |
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The sovereign debt big bang will begin outside the USA as of 2015.75, i.e. Europe will precede the USA's sovereign debt collapse by a half Pi cycle (roughly 18 months). Thus the German DAX is in its final bubble and will peak and collapse as of 2015.75. Additional current specific predictions (not mentioning those that come after 2020 such as breakup of the USA, rise of Asia as new global financial capital, and the global monetary RESERVE unit): 1. Rise of the war cycle as of 2014, which should lead to shooting wars by 2017 or 2018. Armstrong has mentioned China and Japan might resort to war to deflect blame for the global crisis from internal politics to external enemies. Armstrong has even speculated that the pandemic might be spread by the marauding troops, as was the case with the Black Death entering Europe when the marauders threw the diseased bodies over the walls in Ukraine. (My interpretation is the pandemic is not likely ebola as it can't spread in the air. A influenza variant is more likely.) 2. Collapse of oil to $30. 3. The collapse of Euro and Pound to below parity to the dollar. 4. Rise of third party in politics and a split of the Republican party, specifically for the 2016 election (but my interpretation is they won't win a majority and the fascism will become more totalitarian to squelch their effectiveness in WA D.C., but separatism and rebellion will rise grass-roots). 5. Greater than 25% USA actual employment, perhaps as high as 50% ( 2023-24 target for the breakout above 25%). Ditto for Europe and it will come sooner for Europe. Here are my own interpretations (not Armstrong's words): From Armstrong's chart, it apears the USA will shoot up to 20% unemployment around 2017 (when the half-cycle of the ECM turns up again), then it will either recover somewhat or rise slowly, and then by 2024 the target line will intersect the breakout line and we should see a phase transistion and (as he has written else where) unemployment could rise as high as 50%. Thus the worst for the USA economically may be from 2024 to 2032, which may be as the free market has started to win and Asia is rising again as the West falls into State collapse (breakup of the USA, etc). The worst of the State fascism tribulations may be from 2017 to 2024. The State may go into overdrive in 2017 (Hillary Clinton likely elected in 2016) in terms of expropriating wealth and thus may be able to sustain another last gasp at the higher levels of unemployment (as they did with QE but double the unemployment rate) by becoming nearly 100% of the economy. 2017 to 2024 could be a very dark period for humanity. It is the totalitarianism that is going to kill the USA, and it looks like that damage will be done most egregiously from 2017 to 2024, then Asia will have broken free of the noose and the West will spin off into chaos from 2024 to 2032. Armstrong noted the realization of some unlikely coincidences is a prophesy that the current Pope will preside over a period of Tribulations.
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 01:40:43 PM Last edit: March 07, 2015, 03:07:28 PM by iamback |
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To the above criticism I would add that I have personally seen Armstrong significantly edit his old writings when his initial writing made him look bad. Specifically he erroneous reported as fact that Citigroup was moving its headquarters from New York to the U.S. Capitol building. This is just jumping off the cliff. Not only did these people grease enough palms to repeal Dodd Frank, they are now leasing space right in the Capital Building and managed to increase the donation limitation from $32,400 to $324,000.
Looks like the clouds are starting to gather for 2015.75 in a very dramatic way. Maybe it is just time to leave. Oh ya. This is fulfilling the lyrics of the Eagle’s song Hotel California – where you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
He later significantly revised that post http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/14/are-you-really-ready-for-the-world-to-be-ruled-by-bankers/I do not know the extent to which Armstrong changes his prior writings to "improve" things. He slightly edited it for clarity (not to change the meaning) because it wasn't clear to readers that he was linking to a joke. He didn't edit months later, rather it was edited within days. He ABSOLUTELY doesn't go back and edit blog posts after the fact to change what he predicted. He was being sarcastic but some readers (including myself when I didn't read it carefully the first time) misinterpreted as he was saying the joke was actually going to happen. For you to claim that he was claiming it was actually going to happen just boggles my mind. I am flabbergast (or perhaps I should just accept that you are really naive about the nature of programmers and hackers). Armstrong is the former manager of $3 trillion in Japanese funds. Come on now. Let's stop assuming he is some fly-by-night dimwit. Seriously! Please consider to retract your false accusation. IMO your accusation makes you look like a dimwit, not Armstrong. Sorry to ad hominem, but seriously this makes you look bad. You are claiming a person as widely respected as Armstrong is so stupid to claim a joke as being real. I think you need to understand that Armstrong spends much of his time programming, and programmers occasionally blow off steam with wise cracks, especially ones that fool the weak minded. We actually enjoy puzzles and obfuscation when we are making a joke. Let me cite a canonical reference: http://www.catb.org/jargon/html/H/hacker-humor.htmlhacker humor
A distinctive style of shared intellectual humor found among hackers, having the following marked characteristics:
1. Fascination with form-vs.-content jokes, paradoxes, and humor having to do with confusion of metalevels (see meta). One way to make a hacker laugh: hold a red index card in front of him/her with “GREEN” written on it, or vice-versa (note, however, that this is funny only the first time).
2. Elaborate deadpan parodies of large intellectual constructs, such as specifications (see write-only memory), standards documents, language descriptions (see INTERCAL), and even entire scientific theories (see quantum bogodynamics, computron).
3. Jokes that involve screwily precise reasoning from bizarre, ludicrous, or just grossly counter-intuitive premises.
4. Fascination with puns and wordplay.
5. A fondness for apparently mindless humor with subversive currents of intelligence in it — for example, old Warner Brothers and Rocky & Bullwinkle cartoons, the Marx brothers, the early B-52s, and Monty Python's Flying Circus. Humor that combines this trait with elements of high camp and slapstick is especially favored.
6. References to the symbol-object antinomies and associated ideas in Zen Buddhism and (less often) Taoism. See has the X nature, Discordianism, zen, ha ha only serious, koan.
See also filk, retrocomputing, and the Portrait of J. Random Hacker in Appendix B. If you have an itchy feeling that all six of these traits are really aspects of one thing that is incredibly difficult to talk about exactly, you are (a) correct and (b) responding like a hacker. These traits are also recognizable (though in a less marked form) throughout science-fiction fandom. http://www.catb.org/esr/faqs/hacker-howto.html#believe33. Boredom and drudgery are evil.
Hackers (and creative people in general) should never be bored or have to drudge at stupid repetitive work, because when this happens it means they aren't doing what only they can do — solve new problems. This wastefulness hurts everybody. Therefore boredom and drudgery are not just unpleasant but actually evil.
To behave like a hacker, you have to believe this enough to want to automate away the boring bits as much as possible, not just for yourself but for everybody else (especially other hackers).
(There is one apparent exception to this. Hackers will sometimes do things that may seem repetitive or boring to an observer as a mind-clearing exercise, or in order to acquire a skill or have some particular kind of experience you can't have otherwise. But this is by choice — nobody who can think should ever be forced into a situation that bores them.) http://www.catb.org/esr/faqs/hacker-howto.html#stylePoints For Style
* Develop your appreciation of puns and wordplay. http://catb.org/~esr/writings/homesteading/hacker-history/ar01s02.htmlThe first intentional artifacts of the hacker culture—the first slang lists, the first satires http://www.amazon.com/The-New-Hackers-Dictionary-Edition/dp/0262680920The New Hacker's Dictionary not the dry, encyclopedic style of dictionary - entries are written in an opinionated, juicy style. The humorous side of the dictionary - a work of a witty, creative hacker mind picking names for things - certainly vastly outweighs its practical side.
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 02:11:54 PM Last edit: March 07, 2015, 03:12:03 PM by iamback |
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In regards to Armstrong's claims of predicting pandemic in 2018 I would restate my prior arguments that I believe accurate prediction of such an event is impossible. Most pandemics occur when a pathogen jumps a species barrier to a new host (humans) that are not adapted to it. Such a process should be random and follow a Poisson distribution. The expected time between pandemics should therefore follow an exponential distribution. I am skeptical of the validity of a cyclical model predicting a definitive pandemic date.
I agree that that economic collapse and overpopulation could lead to worsening squalor increased contact with infected animals and increased chance of a pathogen jumping the species barrier. If economic collapse and downturns occurred cyclically that could introduce a cyclic increase in jump probability and the Poisson distribution would not hold.
However, all that would mean is that there would be times of increased risk of a pandemic and times of lesser risk. A higher probability is no guarantee that such a pathogen will jump. The Jump itself would still be a random process. It seems ridiculous to me for anyone to claim there is definitively going to be a pandemic in 2018. The only way to know that with certainly would be if you were the one introducing the pandemic.
My genuine impression of Mr. Armstrong is that he is someone who has predicted, probably correctly, that 2015-2016 is the date when the central banks finally start to lose control and that he is planning to leverage that prediction into $$$ by selling terrified investors (very expensive) investment advice. However, I am keeping an eye on his predictions. 1) Economy turning down at the end of 2015 and 2) Pandemic in 2018 3) Any others? I think he is right about #1 and I do not believe #2 is possible to predict unless you are directly involved or communicating with individuals introducing a pandemic. If both predictions #1 and #2 happen on schedule I will revise my opinion accordingly. You are doing fundamental analysis of how you think a pandemic would have to be predicted. But Armstrong isn't using fundamental analysis. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Farmstrongeconomics.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2Fcropped-13b-AE-Banner-GMW.jpg&t=665&c=rHmfWitQ2iPSKQ) Point is that fundamental analysis (e.g. climatologists) isn't necessary to recognize repeating patterns which be correlated without any fundamental knowledge. And it turns out that fundamental analysis is often very poor at making predictions, because it fails to account for some factors, e.g. Greenspan not accounting for international capital flows. We appear to have a disagreement on the liklihood of being able to foresee Black Swan events. Too many, too weird and too unlikely (each one) to be accurately modeled, in most cases, IMO.
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Finally, I disagree that a smart brain, or sets of brains and computers, can get much (some, but not too much) from environments that are much, much more complex than our brains (even yours or his) to keep track of all outcomes... Trends and insights yes. Brilliant "aha" moments, yes as well. EVERYTHING, including low probability but high impact events, no.
There are cyclical patterns that repeat over and over in history. There can't be any disagreement with a fact, rather only denial of the facts. For example, as I wrote: For example, the cyclical movement of the earth's north and south magnetic poles, which impact aggregate weather patterns.
That is a fact. You are pretend that facts don't exist if you want. It is apparently a fact that pandemics correlate with a confluence of war and bad economics. Perhaps this following would be instructive on how war leads to epidemics now you just have to have a pathogen ready to jump to the new mode of transmission brought on by the war and pestilence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Frank#Deportation_and_deathhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergen-Belsen_concentration_camp#LiberationI understand they had to maintain a 48 km zone around the camp so they could delouse the lice which were the carriers of the Typhus pathogen. Rats were the carriers in the Black Death. Sex is the mode of transmission with HIV. The next pandemic is likely to be influenza with breathing air as the mode of transmission. The Spanish Flu influenza was brought on by World War 1: https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/The Influenza Pandemic of 1918
The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history. More people died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of the Black Death Bubonic Plague from 1347 to 1351. Known as "Spanish Flu" or "La Grippe" the influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster.
In the fall of 1918 the Great War in Europe was winding down and peace was on the horizon. The Americans had joined in the fight, bringing the Allies closer to victory against the Germans. Deep within the trenches these men lived through some of the most brutal conditions of life, which it seemed could not be any worse. Then, in pockets across the globe, something erupted that seemed as benign as the common cold. The influenza of that season, however, was far more than a cold. In the two years that this scourge ravaged the earth, a fifth of the world's population was infected. The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40. This pattern of morbidity was unusual for influenza which is usually a killer of the elderly and young children. It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy (Deseret News). An estimated 43,000 servicemen mobilized for WWI died of influenza (Crosby). 1918 would go down as unforgettable year of suffering and death and yet of peace.
People were struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the night. Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg). Others told stories of people on their way to work suddenly developing the flu and dying within hours (Henig). One physician writes that patients with seemingly ordinary influenza would rapidly "develop the most viscous type of pneumonia that has ever been seen" and later when cyanosis appeared in the patients, "it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate," (Grist, 1979). Another physician recalls that the influenza patients "died struggling to clear their airways of a blood-tinged froth that sometimes gushed from their nose and mouth," (Starr, 1976).
It spread following the path of its human carriers, along trade routes and shipping lines. Outbreaks swept through North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Brazil and the South Pacific (Taubenberger). In India the mortality rate was extremely high at around 50 deaths from influenza per 1,000 people (Brown). The Great War, with its mass movements of men in armies and aboard ships, probably aided in its rapid diffusion and attack. The origins of the deadly flu disease were unknown but widely speculated upon. Some of the allies thought of the epidemic as a biological warfare tool of the Germans. Many thought it was a result of the trench warfare, the use of mustard gases and the generated "smoke and fumes" of the war. A national campaign began using the ready rhetoric of war to fight the new enemy of microscopic proportions. A study attempted to reason why the disease had been so devastating in certain localized regions, looking at the climate, the weather and the racial composition of cities. They found humidity to be linked with more severe epidemics as it "fosters the dissemination of the bacteria,"
The origins of this influenza variant is not precisely known. It is thought to have originated in China in a rare genetic shift of the influenza virus. The recombination of its surface proteins created a virus novel to almost everyone and a loss of herd immunity. Recently the virus has been reconstructed from the tissue of a dead soldier and is now being genetically characterized. The name of Spanish Flu came from the early affliction and large mortalities in Spain (BMJ,10/19/1918) where it allegedly killed 8 million in May (BMJ, 7/13/1918). However, a first wave of influenza appeared early in the spring of 1918 in Kansas and in military camps throughout the US. Few noticed the epidemic in the midst of the war. Wilson had just given his 14 point address. There was virtually no response or acknowledgment to the epidemics in March and April in the military camps. It was unfortunate that no steps were taken to prepare for the usual recrudescence of the virulent influenza strain in the winter. The lack of action was later criticized when the epidemic could not be ignored in the winter of 1918 (BMJ, 1918). These first epidemics at training camps were a sign of what was coming in greater magnitude in the fall and winter of 1918 to the entire world.
The war brought the virus back into the US for the second wave of the epidemic. Note the outbreaks and genetic mutation of influenza in China recently. Notice the USA having troops all over the world. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H7N9The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified H7N9 as "...an unusually dangerous virus for humans." Most of the cases resulted in severe respiratory illness, with a mortality rate of roughly 30 percent. Researchers have commented on the unusual prevalence of older males among H7N9-infected patients.
As of January 2014, there has been no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, however a study group headed by one of the world’s leading experts on avian flu reported that several instances of human-to-human infection are suspected. Note that influenza vaccines are typically not that effective in the elderly: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2015/02/studies-spain-scotland-support-flu-vaccine-effectivenessVE was 60% (95% CI, 22%-79%) for patients younger than 65 and at risk for serious flu complications, but only 19% (95% CI, −104%-68%) for those 65 years and older, which made it not statistically significant. http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/vaccine-development-for-h7n9-flu-problematic-1.1370919"If we can't get a good response there" — with healthy adults — "the question is: Why would you ever expect a better response in the older population," noted Osterholm, whose team produced a major report on flu vaccine last year, called the CIDRAP Comprehensive Influenza Vaccine Initiative.
A per person dose of 180 mcg would sharply reduce the amount of vaccine available during a pandemic.
The latest global production estimate is 1.4 billion trivalent (three-in-one) shots in a year, Osterholm said, or 4.2 billion 15 mcg doses. Dividing that by 12 would suggest something in the order of 350 million people could be vaccinated in the first year of a pandemic — if all went well with production. Making flu vaccine is a finicky business and hitches in production are not uncommon.
A number of the vaccine manufacturers have products called adjuvants that can boost the impact of flu vaccine, allowing less vaccine to be used for each person. Adjuvants can stretch supplies significantly. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Canada and a number of European countries bought vaccine that included an adjuvant. The United States did not.
Since that pandemic, studies in several European countries have linked use of GlaxoSmithKline's adjuvant, AS03, with an increase in the incidence of narcolepsy among young people. (A study looking to see if rates also rose in Canada is still underway.) Given the questions swirling around that situation, some countries may not feel safe to use an adjuvant with an H7N9 vaccine, Osterholm noted.
"If you add all those together, it doesn't paint a really very optimistic picture about influenza vaccine being a really significant weapon against this, should a pandemic emerge quickly," he said. http://www.nih.gov/news/health/oct2014/niaid-07.htmAn experimental vaccine to protect people against H7N9 avian influenza prompted immune responses in 59 percent of volunteers who received two injections at the lowest dosage tested, but only if the vaccine was mixed with adjuvant — a substance that boosts the body’s response to vaccination. Without adjuvant, immune responses produced by the investigational vaccine were minimal regardless of vaccine dosage, according to findings from a clinical trial sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.
The Phase 2 trial enrolled 700 healthy adults aged 19 to 64 years old. That study apparently didn't report the differential response in the elderly, and in fact didn't include anyone over 65. I am expecting the next epidemic to help wipe out the socialism problem with entitled boomers. Eyeballing it roughly half of the boomers will be age 65 or older in 2019.
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bigtimespaghetti
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March 07, 2015, 03:19:34 PM |
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Thought provoking as always iamback. Perhaps the socialism would be reduced in the US, and possibly to a lesser extent in the UK (my opinion). But the European continent has thoroughly impressed big government onto many of the Western nations, I feel that there is a chance in the event of global epidemic that socialism would probably grow, not lessen in Europe.
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 03:23:09 PM Last edit: March 07, 2015, 03:33:25 PM by iamback |
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Thought provoking as always iamback. Perhaps the socialism would be reduced in the US, and possibly to a lesser extent in the UK (my opinion). But the European continent has thoroughly impressed big government onto many of the Western nations, I feel that there is a chance in the event of global epidemic that socialism would probably grow, not lessen in Europe. Yes I expect the West will double-down on totalitarianism until it is so bankrupted that it collapses onto itself by about 2024. Here are my own interpretations (not Armstrong's words):
From Armstrong's chart, it apears the USA will shoot up to 20% unemployment around 2017 (when the half-cycle of the ECM turns up again), then it will either recover somewhat or rise slowly, and then by 2024 the target line will intersect the breakout line and we should see a phase transistion and (as he has written else where) unemployment could rise as high as 50%.
Thus the worst for the USA economically may be from 2024 to 2032, which may be as the free market has started to win and Asia is rising again as the West falls into State collapse (breakup of the USA, etc). The worst of the State fascism tribulations may be from 2017 to 2024. The State may go into overdrive in 2017 (Hillary Clinton likely elected in 2016) in terms of expropriating wealth and thus may be able to sustain another last gasp at the higher levels of unemployment (as they did with QE but double the unemployment rate) by becoming nearly 100% of the economy. 2017 to 2024 could be a very dark period for humanity. It is the totalitarianism that is going to kill the USA, and it looks like that damage will be done most egregiously from 2017 to 2024, then Asia will have broken free of the noose and the West will spin off into chaos from 2024 to 2032.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/26/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi2.wp.com%2Farmstrongeconomics.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F12%2Fus-224-cYCLE-2013.jpg%3Fresize%3D584%252C467&t=665&c=I786JiQ4J5t25w) | This Collapsing Wave structure that the United States appears to be in means it is a one-time-wonder and that the United States will break-up and the there will be no more “united” union. This is becoming self-evidence in the polarization of politics with tremendous differences in culture on a regional basis. The Obamacare is just one aspect revealing the undercurrent whereby one segment of society believes it has a right to force their views upon another group.
So unfortunately, the USA does not appear to be destined to remain intact otherwise we would have seen and overall structured wave of 224 years. We seem to be in the Collapsing Wave with the 224 years was from birth to peak with an overall duration of 309.6 years at best. This appears to be like the Collapsing Wave in Imperial Rome itself whereas from the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44BC to the peak in the glory of Rome and population in the city took place under Marcus Aurelius that was 224 years later in 180AD. The decline that followed brought total chaos, sovereign debt crisis, massive government seizure of capital, fragmentation of the Empire, and in the end, Rome was no longer the Capitol and that became Constantinople followed by the split of East and West. We are much more akin to the this type of Collapsing Wave formation whereby society collapses and breaks apart. |
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/11/will-the-usa-also-break-up-into-regions/![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi0.wp.com%2Farmstrongeconomics.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F06%2FHillary_Clinton_2016_president_bid_confirmed.jpg%3Fresize%3D584%252C304&t=665&c=DpPzrOGijwVsfA) | As for the break-up of the USA, the computer has been warning for decades now that the 2016 election will see a sharp rise in third-party activity. The Republican Party may split again. We see the internal civil war with the Tea Party people. This is the core of the break-up for what lies behind that is culture and religion. Once the economy turns down, this will accelerate.
It appears that Hillary will be the Democratic candidate and that will merely solidify the Republic split. By 2032, the other side of this 51.6 year wave looks to be a starkly different world. The USA will split and China will become the Financial Capital of the World. |
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/01/how-far-in-the-future-does-your-computer-model-project/QUESTION: How far in the future does your computer model project?
ANSWER: One of the fascinating aspects about modeling the world economy is you rapidly discover that the complexity is enormous, yet the outcome is far more predictable Long-Term than Short-Term. This may seem illogical at first, but once you comprehend the dynamics of the system it becomes understandable.
The Long-Term is far easier to predict with even 100% accuracy than Short-Term. Why? There is a lot of noise within the system so that markets can rally today and drop tomorrow yet the closing prices are nothing dramatically different. The Long-Term is what confuses people. Like the whole reasoning behind gold, fiat, deficits, and the dollar. People look at the national debt and say the system has to burst. That may be true that the sustainability of ANY system inevitably falls into collapse. However, the question is always TIMING.
Bretton Woods was a fatal design as was the Euro trying to create a single currency yet retain individual sovereign debt. That does not mean that the system would be incapable of functioning for a few decades. However, such system cannot be sustained indefinitely and will always collapse.
Therefore, you can state with confidence that the Euro will collapse, as will the Dollar and the Yen. The question is simply WHEN? Consequently, the Long-Term can be predicted with ease; the TIMING is something altogether different.
Our model is concerned about TIME and the interplay between all the factors that combine to make or break the trend. This is not about personal opinion for NOBODY can predict the future with respect to complexity and TIME from a pure opinion or gut reaction.
Our computer can accurately project Long-Term trends out into the hundreds of years. Why? Because it is only a matter of TIME that all things must change and evolve. The United States will break-up as a political entity and it is the people’s fault because human nature allows crazy politicians to go unpunished for decades before revolution bursts out onto the scene.
Therefore, the Long-Term is very predictable that there will be a revolution in the USA when the taxes rise and the standard of living collapses so that people have then lost their future. What makes such changes take place is ALWAYS the economy. If you can map the world economy, you can map the future.
The ONLY question is TIME.
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 04:30:46 PM |
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http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/26/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi2.wp.com%2Farmstrongeconomics.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F12%2Fus-224-cYCLE-2013.jpg%3Fresize%3D584%252C467&t=665&c=I786JiQ4J5t25w) | This Collapsing Wave structure that the United States appears to be in means it is a one-time-wonder and that the United States will break-up and the there will be no more “united” union. This is becoming self-evidence in the polarization of politics with tremendous differences in culture on a regional basis. The Obamacare is just one aspect revealing the undercurrent whereby one segment of society believes it has a right to force their views upon another group.
So unfortunately, the USA does not appear to be destined to remain intact otherwise we would have seen and overall structured wave of 224 years. We seem to be in the Collapsing Wave with the 224 years was from birth to peak with an overall duration of 309.6 years at best. This appears to be like the Collapsing Wave in Imperial Rome itself whereas from the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44BC to the peak in the glory of Rome and population in the city took place under Marcus Aurelius that was 224 years later in 180AD. The decline that followed brought total chaos, sovereign debt crisis, massive government seizure of capital, fragmentation of the Empire, and in the end, Rome was no longer the Capitol and that became Constantinople followed by the split of East and West. We are much more akin to the this type of Collapsing Wave formation whereby society collapses and breaks apart. |
So what happened in April 2013, which is the peak of the USA in its current political structure as a constitutional Republic of 50 States? Are you ready? http://nucleardiner.com/2013/06/12/edward-snowden-timeline/ Poitras convinces Greenwald to listen to Snowden. Snowden joins Booz Allen Hamilton on work for NSA [link added 2]. [2] Reuters says this was in April, with training sessions for “a week or two” at Fort Meade, Maryland.
Late March or early April, 2013: Greenwald begins communicating directly with Snowden.
April 2013: Snowden is assigned to an NSA facility in Hawaii. [2]
May 1, 2013: Snowden leaves his house in Hawaii, “shortly before Snowden became known globally for his whistleblowing”: Gives interview to Der Spiegel via encrypted e-mails with Laura Poitras and Jacob Applebaum. [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Snowden#NSA_contractorSnowden then contacted documentary filmmaker Laura Poitras in January 2013.
Greenwald began working with Snowden in either February or April 2013, after Poitras asked Greenwald to meet her in New York City, at which point Snowden began providing documents to them. http://3dblogger.typepad.com/wired_state/2013/07/us-russia-and-world-timeline-for-edward-snowden.htmlMarch 31, 2013
Edward Snowden begins work as an infrastructure analyst of the NSA with Booz, Allen Hamilton. He takes a week or longer business trip to unknown location (Maui? to meet Appelbaum and other hackers gathered for the Spring Break of Coders in Hawaii?). http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/27034-citizenfour-inside-story-of-nsa-leaker-edward-snowden-captured-in-new-film-by-laura-poitras#LAURA POITRAS: Yeah, I mean, I was actually very shocked. I was contacted in January, and we had email correspondence for a long time. And for all of—for the first three months, I assumed he would remain an anonymous source. He wouldn’t tell me any details about his—you know, where he worked or where he lived. And I thought that I was talking to somebody, at some point I’d receive documents, and then, you know, he would disappear and I would never know who the person was. And then, in April, he revealed to me—he said, "You know, you should know that I actually intend to come forward and say that I’m the source of this information," and that he didn’t want to hide, and he didn’t want others to take responsibility and that he didn’t—if there was a leak investigation, etc. http://3dblogger.typepad.com/wired_state/2013/07/idiot-wind.htmlSNOWDEN AND APPELBAUM IN HAWAII
Naturally, since Jacob Appelbaum went to Hawaii in April 2012 and again in April 2013 to celebrate his birthday, right when Edward Snowden was also there, we're all wondering. LibertyLynx broke this story from a reliable source who had noticed the "alibi video" Jake desperately made in Berlin trying to explain the reason for something he feared NSA analysts might have noticed -- that he was in Hawaii in April 2013 when Snowden was also there (and I could add - in April 2012 when Snowden was already there, too).
And it's important to know (because some newspapers are muddled on this and Pincus tripped on this and then Greenwald whacked him) that Snowden goes back to March 2012 in Hawaii. Talking Points Memo fetched that out of his girlfriend's blog -- and I saw her blog before she deleted it and it was definitely there as a timeline she described (and you can still find her blog in the Wayback Machine).
Snowden first came to Hawaii to work for Dell. Then he left Dell to go to Booz Allen Hamilton where he worked less than three months as BAH tells us in a terse statement on their web site after these events.
The Times is the only source I've seen (correct me if I'm wrong) that posits a segue between Dell and BAH where his hacking for the ultimate great revelation starts at Dell, and gives him reason then to move to BAH.
In what may have been his last job for Dell in Hawaii, he was responsible for the security of “Windows infrastructure” in the Pacific, he wrote, according to people who have seen his résumé. He had enough access there to start making contacts with journalists in January and February about disclosing delicate information. His work for Dell may also have enabled him to see that he would have even more access at Booz Allen
Somewhere in the numerous Appelbaum videos online, somebody might someday find some "windows infrastructure" help-desking (naturally Appelbaum loathes Windows) or some clue that will tie them together more intimately in Hawaii. For now, it's only same state, same time, but we don't know if Jake passed through Honolulu to talk to his future WikiLeaks protege Ed in April 2012 or April 2013.
Of course, the essence of hackers is to be online and be anonymous and "exist in cyberspace". But for virtual worlders, they do in fact spend a lot of time in meet-ups and conferences and hackathons and teach-ins and whatnot, and that's what has to be studied. December 2012 at 29c3 (the Chaos Communications Club conference) is when Appelbaum openly recruited government programmers to "leave the dark side" and come join his chaos club...
From Snowden's girlfriend's now-deleted blog, we also have an indication that Edward flew somewhere in March 2013 for a week or so "on business". To Maui, 100 miles away, to see Jacob Appelbaum and other hackers at the Spring Break of Code? An even that Appelbaum first described as a birthday gift for a vacation that he spent with 20 of his friends, but is described by other people at the Spring Break of Code as an event they organized in January to encourage young coders intereset in privacy encryption. If they are separate events, they intersect, but maybe they aren't. Snowden may have also flown to the mainland, possibly for BHA training at this time -- this is March-April 2013 before he fled Hawaii to Hong Kong. http://3dblogger.typepad.com/wired_state/2013/07/us-russia-and-world-timeline-for-edward-snowden.htmlThe partial time-line that Joshua Foust has produced on the Snowden affair is incomplete and misleading. And he has published it without giving any of bloggers credit (including myself) who found various key parts of this time-line, i.e. LibertyLynx who revealed Jacob Appelbaum's June 25 speech containing his admission of travel to Hawaii in April 2013 at the same time Snowden was there; Streetwise Professor who put it into further context; and my further round-up of Appelbaum's data trail and my long-time analysis of his antics. http://3dblogger.typepad.com/wired_state/2013/07/jacob-appelbaums-data-trail.htmlJacob Appelbaum's Data Trail
As noted, LibertyLynx received a link to a video of Jacob Appelbaum speaking in Germany at Digitale Gesellschaft on June 25, 2013 in which he admits that he was in Hawaii in April 2013 -- which as we know was the same time Edward Snowden was -- and then goes on to paint a picture of this as some kind of fantastic coincidence, i.e. that he hasn't now been caught out in a lie claiming he hadn't heard of Snowden before he was contacted by him in May over encrypted email with Laura Poitras' help.
Naturally, I don't believe him, for all sorts of reasons. One, because in my first encounters with him, I found him to be such a liar and such a thug, whistling for Anonymous to harass me because I kept calling out the propagandistic lies of WikiLeaks in the "Collateral Murder" video. Appelbaum, like so many WikiLeaks propagandists on day-old accounts on Twitter assigned to heckle bloggers, claimed falsely that American soldiers deliberately shot the children in the van in Iraq. I continued to challenge this as false, as they couldn't possibly see that the van had children in it, and there was absolutely nothing to support this narrative, which was concocted.
Then when I saw Appelbaum's other performances, either in person or on videos on Youtube, I saw what a fabulist and paranoic racconteur he was, and I really was skeptical.
On this story, he makes it sound as if the trip to Hawaii -- paid for by friends unknown -- was some kind of "dream come true" as if it were the fulfillment of a long-held wish.
But he was in Hawaii the year before doing the same thing, so it sounds odd to speak of the second (or next) trip as being this long-awaited wish fulfillment.
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iamback
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March 07, 2015, 05:00:58 PM |
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FCC Commissioner says the document is worse than you can imaginePai and fellow Republican FCC commissioner Mike O’Rielly, who have been consistent critics of the FCC’s new rules, said once they are published people will realise that they will stifle innovation and lead to taxes and increased rates for the public.
“When you see this document, it’s worse than you imagine,” said O’Rielly at a conference in Washington organised by the think tank TechFreedom.
The FCC on Thursday voted through strict new rules to regulate broadband and protect net neutrality – the principle that all information and services should have equal access to the internet. More... http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/feb/27/republicans-strike-back-fcc-member-star-wars-net-neutrality http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/26/nsa-destroying-american-technology/NSA Destroying American Technology
American technology companies are losing business on a major scale. The NSA will be responsible for wiping out the United States as a leader in computer science all because they have to listen to the entire world like an old woman addicted to soap operas. I find myself totally shocked at Microsoft. I purchased the latest office at a store. You then have to go online to download the program. They REQUIRE you to have a Microsoft Account. The worse part of this was they demanded I enter a credit card to PROVE who I was acknowledging it would not be used since I already paid for it. I simply refused. They will not refund your money so this is the latest consumer fraud. It is not disclosed that you must PROVE who you are now to use their software. This has gone way too far. There are alternatives out there for word like LibreOffice, and Gnumeric is a better spreadsheet than excel for it can open files excel cannot. There are alternatives to Powerpoint and of course there are alternatives to Outlook such as Thunderbird.
The question is WHY should I have to PROVE who I am to Microsoft to use a product I already paid for? Something just smells funny so the only choice was to walk away and they stole my money for nothing. There are plenty of alternatives and Microsoft just lost all our business.
Now China has dropped most of the leading technology brands of the USA all because of the NSA and who can blame them? Widespread Western cybersurveillance has just gone too far. I would now rather use any product from someplace else or write my own. US technology has commited suicide for China will be the biggest economy where all the economic growth will be in the years ahead.
This has impacted U.S. network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc, which in 2012 counted 60 products on the Central Government Procurement Center’s (CGPC) list, but by late 2014 had ZERO according to Reuters. Apple, Intel, McAfee and Citrx have all been dropped. China is shifting to internal alternatives.
The NSA is wiping out the US economy rapidly and Congress, occupied with lawyers, can only argue to uphold laws they write without any comprehension of the consequences. This is all part of the economic decline we see after 2015.75.
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March 07, 2015, 11:16:23 PM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 03:47:32 AM by CoinCube |
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Armstrong is the former manager of $3 trillion in Japanese funds. Come on now. Let's stop assuming he is some fly-by-night dimwit. Seriously!
Please consider to retract your false accusation. IMO your accusation makes you look like a dimwit, not Armstrong. Sorry to ad hominem, but seriously this makes you look bad. You are claiming a person as widely respected as Armstrong is so stupid to claim a joke as being real.
Hero worship is dangerous. It clouds objectivity and sets people up for disappointment. No one including Armstrong is immune from simple human error. I have highlighted the errors I have seen in Armstrong's writings and you have countered. I am comfortable with my comments and believe they can stand on their merits. Obviously that was an error, and I have observed that Armstrong has made other errors in the past of misconstruing facts such as the shrapnel he claimed was possibly machine gun fire in the downed airplane over Ukraine. That leasing claim at the Capitol seemed bizarre to me and I was in rush. Two possible causes of this and the second also applies to myself, is becoming too enamored with one's own truth and being too overworked to maintain perfect research on every one of dozens of things one is multitasking on each day. Note Armstrong has removed the link to the New Yorker article from his blog post. Yet he didn't retract the blog post. I think I can explain Armstrong's motivation, given I have traded emails with him and argued with him earlier this year. He believes the only hope is to wake up the people to put a stop to the corruption before it can drag us into another Dark Age. Thus he probably views the importance of getting shocking information out there to outweigh any pedantic errors. In other words, he doesn't want to give any reason for readers to doubt the seriousness of the situation we face. This is one of his personality flaws and one of the reasons I don't blindly follow him. Also I suspect that Armstrong views humor as data, and may have verified historically and statistically that it foreshadows the opinion of the public as to the actual truth behind the curtain.
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March 08, 2015, 03:45:16 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 03:55:41 AM by CoinCube |
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Rats were the carriers in the Black Death.
This has been taught for decades but interestingly a recent study show that may be wrong. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/20/1412887112.abstractProfessor Nils Christian Stenseth and scientists from the University of Oslo say they've compared tree-ring records from Europe and Asia with more than 7,000 outbreaks of the plague. They conclude that weather during much of that period would be too wet for rats to flourish and carry infected fleas across continents.
But he says wet springs succeeded by warm summers would be a honeymoon atmosphere for another species of vermin.
"Such conditions are good for gerbils," Stenseth told the BBC. "It means a high gerbil population across huge areas, and that is good for the plague.
"If we're right," he added, "we'll have to rewrite history." In the US the reservoir of Yersinia pestis (the bacteria that caused the black plague) is not rats but prairie dogs. http://guardianlv.com/2014/07/pneumonic-plague-in-colorado-prairie-dogs-fleas/ No definitive answer yet one way or another but it is at least possible that rats have gotten a bad rap over the last several hundred years. http://www.popsci.com/warmer-weather-asia-meant-black-death-europe-15-years-laterresearchers found that the plague outbreaks were preceded by warmer temperatures in Asia, while there was no correlation between temperature patterns in Europe. Of course travel between Europe and Asia wasn’t nearly as quick as it is today. The temperature spikes in Asia happened 15 years before an outbreak occurred in Europe, a lag that the researchers attribute to the length of the Silk Road trade routes.
They think the pattern went something like this: Warm weather in Asia caused more fleas and small rodents like gerbils to multiply. Then when cooler weather arrived, the rodent populations tumbled, and the bounty of fleas moved on to new hosts, like camels traveling the famous trade route. After a long journey, the flea population encountered rats, another excellent rodent host, in the harbor towns and stowed away on ships bound for Europe. If this turns out to be true it would be one instance where a cyclical model (anything that matched up to warms period in Asia) would accurately predict plague outbreaks.
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iamback
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March 08, 2015, 04:21:04 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 05:19:54 AM by iamback |
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Armstrong is the former manager of $3 trillion in Japanese funds. Come on now. Let's stop assuming he is some fly-by-night dimwit. Seriously!
Please consider to retract your false accusation. IMO your accusation makes you look like a dimwit, not Armstrong. Sorry to ad hominem, but seriously this makes you look bad. You are claiming a person as widely respected as Armstrong is so stupid to claim a joke as being real.
Hero worship is dangerous clouds objectivity and sets people up for disappointment. No one including Armstrong is immune from simple human error. I have highlighted the errors I have seen in Armstrong's writings and you have countered. I am comfortable with my comments and believe they can stand on their merits.Obviously that was an error, and I have observed that Armstrong has made other errors in the past of misconstruing facts such as the shrapnel he claimed was possibly machine gun fire in the downed airplane over Ukraine. That leasing claim at the Capitol seemed bizarre to me and I was in rush. Two possible causes of this and the second also applies to myself, is becoming too enamored with one's own truth and being too overworked to maintain perfect research on every one of dozens of things one is multitasking on each day. Note Armstrong has removed the link to the New Yorker article from his blog post. Yet he didn't retract the blog post. I think I can explain Armstrong's motivation, given I have traded emails with him and argued with him earlier this year. He believes the only hope is to wake up the people to put a stop to the corruption before it can drag us into another Dark Age. Thus he probably views the importance of getting shocking information out there to outweigh any pedantic errors. In other words, he doesn't want to give any reason for readers to doubt the seriousness of the situation we face. This is one of his personality flaws and one of the reasons I don't blindly follow him. Also I suspect that Armstrong views humor as data, and may have verified historically and statistically that it foreshadows the opinion of the public as to the actual truth behind the curtain. The person who was overworked, suffering from lack of concentration due to Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, and too tired was myself when I wrote the above. If you look the comment I wrote later after the one you quoted above, you will see that I realized later that Armstrong didn't make a mistake at all, and in fact he was been sarcastic all along. Also I was mistaken in your quote above; he never removed the link to the New Yorker article. I was rushing and made an error in my vision (I am blind in one eye and I was probably having a "forehead on keyboard" moment of fatigue and inability to keep my eyes open-- it happens to me quite regularly since 2013). CoinCube, for you to claim that he was not intentionally joking (being sarcastic) just boggles my mind. If you persist in saying you are comfortable with this ludicrous doubt of Armstrong, I am going to have to part ways with you. You can stay in the USA with your idiotic (juvenile!) hope that the USA can reform and you can ride it down into the abyss just like Ann Frank (her father Otto Frank) did waiting too long to flee Europe until it became too late to flee. I understand very well your bias, it is so typical the pride of Americans. You don't seem to understand that the DEEP STATE is well documented[1], even Bill Moyers did a documentary on it. And the $trillions in Black Budget for the NSA et al was admitted by Donald Rumsfeld on the eve of 9/11 (and all the records of the investigation were destroyed at the Pentagon the next day), as well as confirmed by numerous other sources. You deny that the Armstrong had all the recordings of evidence against the banksters, which the SEC admitted in writing were destroyed on 9/11 at the WTC collapses. For Armstrong to publish a chart in the 1990s of the breakup of the USA showing it will peak and decline after April 22, 2013, and for that April 2013 to exactly match the time at which Eric Snowden made the final, irreversible moves to leak the famous revelations on the NSA, is yet another in a litany of exact predictions Armstrong's cyclical models have made. There is no other event in recent memory other than 9/11 and the Patriot Act which were as significant to the impending decline of the USA (the totalitarianism is how empires always destroy themselves and force the peripheral nations to gang up to defend against the cancer of the empire, e.g. Armstrong often points out how when Athens turned totalitarian, they forced their allies to align with Sparta). And the Snowden whistleblowing leaks were the actual start of the world having hard evidence of the USA being an evil cancer. This was the action that lead to the decline of respect for the USA and its imminent demise. The error Armstrong made on the shrapnel of the downed commercial airline in Ukraine (stating it might be machine gun fire where analysis clearly proves it can't be) does not any way detract from the objectiveness of his cyclical models and their PROVEN performance, which continues to astound. It saddens me that you have poor logic skills (well it is not surprising, because that is what makes me an excellent programmer is my extraordinary 100th percentile logic skills). Why can't you grasp that the cyclical models are generated from data and correlation and have no human interpretation involved in their generation. Thus for you to present logic about Armstrong's personality and human flaws is entirely irrelevant. I don't think you've ever won a logic debate with me yet. The one time you've made very strong logic was in private where you pointed out clearly the reasons why you probably had until at least early 2017 to make an exit from the USA, because of several factors. And I commended you on those insights and immediately saw the astute logic you had employed. I was beginning to gain respect for you. But this latest from you is extremely subjective and illogical. It is probabilistically impossible (astronomical odds) for the Armstrong's cyclical models to have been so well correlated to future events, if they were not a valid model of the universe. In fact, in my own investigations of the fundamental matter of the universe, I also came to the conclusion that the universe is composed of cyclical patterns. And in fact upthread, I explained that friction must give rise to cyclical patterns and without friction we could not exist (if speed-of-light was infinite, past and present would collapse into a single infinitesimal point). Sorry my friend, you are appearing to be an obstinate dimwit now. It saddens me. I has always feared you would exhibit these inferior intellectual qualities, based on your Introverted-Thinking-Judging Myers-Briggs personality type versus my Extroverted-Feeling-Perception. Thinking-judgement types have a difficulty visualizing the wider scope of the logic, as you exhibiting yet again recently with your myopia about hurricanes. They become too fixated on judging the person for example, and not able to see the logic of the math and probabilities at hand. Luckily introverted thinking-judgement types don't become dictators, only the extroverted ones apply their totalitarian judging to (in their minds "what is best for") the people. You should be aware that I was very skeptical of Armstrong for many years. It was only as the record of astoundingly correct and amazing predictions since the 1980s had become clear to me, that I became convinced that cyclical models indeed predict the future with great accuracy. Differentiate between "hero whor[e]ship" and objective analysis of the probabilities. For you to take a math argument and turn it into a judgement of of my mental state is form of subjective judging and irrational. CoinCube, by 2019 you will realize what a fool you are. But it will be too late for you by then. I am done wasting my time here. Carry on fools so you can meet your destiny. To the above criticism I would add that I have personally seen Armstrong significantly edit his old writings when his initial writing made him look bad. Specifically he erroneous reported as fact that Citigroup was moving its headquarters from New York to the U.S. Capitol building. This is just jumping off the cliff. Not only did these people grease enough palms to repeal Dodd Frank, they are now leasing space right in the Capital Building and managed to increase the donation limitation from $32,400 to $324,000.
Looks like the clouds are starting to gather for 2015.75 in a very dramatic way. Maybe it is just time to leave. Oh ya. This is fulfilling the lyrics of the Eagle’s song Hotel California – where you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
He later significantly revised that post http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/14/are-you-really-ready-for-the-world-to-be-ruled-by-bankers/I do not know the extent to which Armstrong changes his prior writings to "improve" things. He slightly edited it for clarity (not to change the meaning) because it wasn't clear to readers that he was linking to a joke. He didn't edit months later, rather it was edited within days. He ABSOLUTELY doesn't go back and edit blog posts after the fact to change what he predicted. He was being sarcastic but some readers (including myself when I didn't read it carefully the first time) misinterpreted as he was saying the joke was actually going to happen. For you to claim that he was claiming it was actually going to happen just boggles my mind. I am flabbergast (or perhaps I should just accept that you are really naive about the nature of programmers and hackers). Armstrong is the former manager of $3 trillion in Japanese funds. Come on now. Let's stop assuming he is some fly-by-night dimwit. Seriously! Please consider to retract your false accusation. IMO your accusation makes you look like a dimwit, not Armstrong. Sorry to ad hominem, but seriously this makes you look bad. You are claiming a person as widely respected as Armstrong is so stupid to claim a joke as being real. I think you need to understand that Armstrong spends much of his time programming, and programmers occasionally blow off steam with wise cracks, especially ones that fool the weak minded. We actually enjoy puzzles and obfuscation when we are making a joke. Let me cite a canonical reference: http://www.catb.org/jargon/html/H/hacker-humor.html
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March 08, 2015, 05:04:40 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 05:52:36 AM by iamback |
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Rats were the carriers in the Black Death.
This has been taught for decades but interestingly a recent study show that may be wrong. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/20/1412887112.abstractProfessor Nils Christian Stenseth and scientists from the University of Oslo say they've compared tree-ring records from Europe and Asia with more than 7,000 outbreaks of the plague. They conclude that weather during much of that period would be too wet for rats to flourish and carry infected fleas across continents.
But he says wet springs succeeded by warm summers would be a honeymoon atmosphere for another species of vermin.
"Such conditions are good for gerbils," Stenseth told the BBC. "It means a high gerbil population across huge areas, and that is good for the plague.
"If we're right," he added, "we'll have to rewrite history." In the US the reservoir of Yersinia pestis (the bacteria that caused the black plague) is not rats but prairie dogs. http://guardianlv.com/2014/07/pneumonic-plague-in-colorado-prairie-dogs-fleas/ No definitive answer yet one way or another but it is at least possible that rats have gotten a bad rap over the last several hundred years. And why even bother posting that since in any case the carrier was some rodent. It is an irrelevant post and noise. Edit: (I know the reason you think it is relevant, because you are trying to say that fundamental analysis can be wrong, thus we can't predict anything with certainty, But FA being fallible is precisely why I can trust cyclical models which do not incorporate any FA and instead are entirely based in statistical confidence of the repeatability of a cyclical pattern) The point is that opportunistic mutations and plague spread with higher probability when society abruptly and collectively radically changes its behavior (because this provides a different host environment to which the human immune systems have not adapted and to which new opportunistic pathogens might fit the new modes of transmission). War and pestilence of economic decline are one such factor. But the more important point here, is that you doubt anything you can't understand fundamentally. The reason you are grasping at straws trying to judge my and Armstrong's mental state (which is irrelevant to cyclical model analysis!) is because you being a Thinking-Judging Myers-Briggs personality type do not trust anything you can not fully verify from the root of its fundamentals. Your error is that cyclical models have their fundamentals based in statistical correlation of repeating cycles over long histories. This is not something a human can map in his mind. The computer must test the zillions of possible correlations and narrow it down to those which have reliability repeated for all of recorded history (since Mesopotamia 6000 B.C.). Cyclical models don't incorporate any fundamental understanding whatsoever, and thus they aren't subject to the human error of confirmation bias and myopic perspective. Cyclical models are only based on testing those patterns of timing that repeat over and over without fail throughout all human history. Armstrong's computer has backtested all the cyclical correlations it found throughout all human history. Edit: You want to view the problem space from FA, analogously as you wanted to frame Armstrong's weather prediction in terms of hurricanes or some irrelevant aggregate statistic of annual tornadoes for the entire USA, thus you trying to force the analysis into your cherry picked (arbitrary) bias. Whereas, if you broadened your perception, you would see the logic that cyclical analysis doesn't even incorporate any FA and is verified via statistical confidence. You would see that you will make human errors of assumptions that the computer doesn't make when it tests all possible patterns for repeatable statistical confidence, e.g. you wanting to test only the pattern of East coast hurricanes or the aggregate of annual continental tornadoes. Until you grasp that cyclical models can predict anything that repeats with a cyclical pattern, then you will continue to be lost. If you deny that pandemics follow a cyclical pattern, then you are saying recorded history is a lie. http://www.popsci.com/warmer-weather-asia-meant-black-death-europe-15-years-laterresearchers found that the plague outbreaks were preceded by warmer temperatures in Asia, while there was no correlation between temperature patterns in Europe. Of course travel between Europe and Asia wasn’t nearly as quick as it is today. The temperature spikes in Asia happened 15 years before an outbreak occurred in Europe, a lag that the researchers attribute to the length of the Silk Road trade routes.
They think the pattern went something like this: Warm weather in Asia caused more fleas and small rodents like gerbils to multiply. Then when cooler weather arrived, the rodent populations tumbled, and the bounty of fleas moved on to new hosts, like camels traveling the famous trade route. After a long journey, the flea population encountered rats, another excellent rodent host, in the harbor towns and stowed away on ships bound for Europe. If this turns out to be true it would be one instance where a cyclical model (anything that matched up to warms period in Asia) would accurately predict plague outbreaks. Again you are trying to find fundamental reasons that certain phenomena could be cyclical, because you believe on the micro level of analysis that the mutation of viruses is random. But this is a myopic perspective on your part. Again refer to my math explanation of why Black Swans are not random.: Again you make me repeat what I wrote to your before, that what appears to be unpredictable to those who haven't model sufficient historical data to establish the long-term cycles, is not random to those who have collected the necessary data. If you study Taleb's anti-fragility math (which followed his Black Swan work), it is clear that systems overcommit to error because they lack a holistic perspective. Taleb is pointing out that they are unseen and that is what makes them Black Swans, but he is saying the reason they are unseen and unpredictable is because the system is structured in such a way that makes it incapable of incrementally adjusting to error. He makes two essential equivalent points (they are duals). One is that bottom-up systems have more degrees-of-freedom and the agents are closer to the error and can adjust more readily (this is the simulated annealing point I have been making over and over again since at least 2010). Secondly, implicit in his math is that if there is a historically repeating pattern then this information would not prevent top-down systems from being unable to adjust to the error that the information makes clear. ... Point is that fundamental analysis (e.g. climatologists) isn't necessary to recognize repeating patterns which be correlated without any fundamental knowledge. And it turns out that fundamental analysis is often very poor at making predictions, because it fails to account for some factors, e.g. Greenspan not accounting for international capital flows.
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iamback
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March 08, 2015, 05:35:04 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 06:08:57 AM by iamback |
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CoinCube, to summarize my prior two rebuttals in one sentence: My confidence comes from the math of statistical confidence of repeatability of cyclical patterns; and the well documented astounding performance of Armstrong's cyclical turn dates from the 1980s to present has convinced me that his computer has verified the necessary statistical confidence for each cyclical pattern it has identified. Human error is thus entirely irrelevant. I understand that you doubt the documentation of his record of performance. You've even tried to hint that he might have back edited documents. Based on my intimate, multi-year, deep, daily study of Armstrong, I have come to the conclusion that your doubt is ludicrous and absurd. It is litany of factors which my mind has weighted statistically and determined the odds of Armstrong being a fraud is unlikely. My confidence interval is roughly 95% at this point, as I mentioned upthread yesterday. P.S. the stress of Armstrong's reality is so bitter for you to swallow, you will naturally attempt denial for as long as you can. This is human nature. P.S.S. Armstrong's cyclical models not only predicted Eric Snowden's April 2013 revelations, I've read his computer model also predicted 9/11/2001! http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/02/15/the-model-the-dogs-or-war/QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your cycle of war seems to be truly amazing. It was a fascinating read. My question is this. I also understand that 911 took place precisely on the day of your model. Besides your cycle of war predicting World War I and II to the day, has your Pi conjunction that targeted 911 ever taken place like that before in history?
ANSWER: Shockingly, many times. Even going back into ancient times, the first of the three wars against the Jews also began on that same Pi target in Wave 707 (starting the Economic Confidence Model at 6000BC). You have to dive into history without a biased perspective and a completely open mind for whatever you were taught in school was most likely slanted, wrong, or fictional. I prefer contemporary accounts rather than modern interpretation that judges the past by current standards. http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/04/top-economic-advisers-forecast-war-and-unrest-2.htmlformer Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill says that Bush planned the Iraq war before 9/11.
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March 08, 2015, 06:25:11 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 06:44:41 AM by iamback |
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I don't have any more free time. I hope my posts have helped those who want to be helped. The preponderance of correlations with Armstrong's turn dates is undeniable proof of their efficacy. To say that the turn dates could match any event cherry picked after the turn date has occurred is illogical, because there are only a few applicable models, infrequent turn dates, and only a few significant events that are elligible. For example, the 25-year War Cycle turn date correlated to the day with 9/11 false flag operation which was used to get us back into war in Iraq and start the terrorism lie. And the 224-year cycle of political change for the USA turn date correlated to Eric Snowden's expose on the NSA. Those are not arbitrary correlations, they are very unlikely and extremely precise, thus they are predictions (whether Armstrong articulated them in advance is irrelevant to the statistical confidence here; the salient point being the models are doing the predicting not the human Armstrong). The War Cycle was also employed by Armstrong to publicly predict the Ukraine outcome a year before anyone was even thinking and talking about Ukraine. CoinCube, congratulations your thread is about to cross the 60,000 reads threshold. I hope you don't fail to benefit from the insight. Unfortunately what the models predict is war, pestilence, and grotesque pandemic by 2019 that will probably kill many over age 65 (bleeding through their noses, suffocating on blood gasping for air).
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March 08, 2015, 06:53:03 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 07:19:44 AM by CoinCube |
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CoinCube, to summarize my prior two rebuttals in one sentence:
My confidence comes from the math of statistical confidence of repeatability of cyclical patterns; and the well documented astounding performance of Armstrong's cyclical turn dates from the 1980s to present has convinced me that his computer has verified the necessary statistical confidence for each cyclical pattern it has identified.
Human error is thus entirely irrelevant.
I understand that you doubt the documentation of his record of performance. You've even tried to hint that he might have back edited documents. Based on my intimate, multi-year, deep, daily study of Armstrong, I have come to the conclusion that your doubt is ludicrous and absurd. It is litany of factors which my mind has weighted statistically and determined the odds of Armstrong being a fraud is unlikely. My confidence interval is roughly 95% at this point, as I mentioned upthread yesterday.
P.S. the stress of Armstrong's reality is so bitter for you to swallow, you will naturally attempt denial for as long as you can. This is human nature.
iamback this is by far your best reply to my critiques of Armstrong. I want to clarify that I did not state that he back edits his predictions. I only stated that I have seen him edit one post (to correct an error in my opinion and for clarity in your opinion). I stated that I did not know if this was a widespread practice. You have reported that he does not back edit his predictions. The edit I saw was not an edit of a prediction. Since you follow him closely I have no reason to doubt you on this. To try to defend Armstrong and his models as perfect, however, is in my opinion a losing proposition. No humans and no models are 100%. Even if Armstrong is exactly what he says he is and his supercomputer does exactly what he claims each additional predictions he makes (especially short term market predictions) increase the chances he will get one wrong. I believe he got one wrong with his weather prediction as I documented. You think I am misinterpreting his prediction. Regardless, given enough predictions it is a certainty that Armstrong will get one wrong. No matter how sophisticated and accurate his cyclical modeling it cannot be perfect. Judging a prognosticator like Armstrong is not a binary decision always wrong or always right. Rather it is an assessment of reliability. With that in mind if you have time it would be helpful if your sourced with links your list of Armstrong predictions above. You mentioned several that I did not have on my list that I do not have the source for. I very much have an open mind regarding Armstrong. As I stated upthread I believe his prediction of a sovereign debt crisis that starts 2015.75 seems likely to happen. I honestly have no idea if he is legitimate or an opportunistic but talented fake. That is why I am interested in documenting both his potential inconsistencies (as I have done) and his future predictions. Further data will help. This back in fourth has also inspired me to dig a little deeper and as I have time I will start go go through Armstrong's earlier writings starting with his prison writings. Perhaps once I do that I will share your confidence in him.
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March 08, 2015, 07:15:01 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 03:15:06 PM by CoinCube |
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CoinCube, for you to claim that he was not intentionally joking (being sarcastic) just boggles my mind.
You should try not to take things so personally. Different rational actors can interpret the same data very differently. What color is the dress? Answer: Black and Blue However, a majority including myself can only see white and gold.
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iamback
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March 08, 2015, 09:34:10 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 09:47:26 AM by iamback |
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I trust Armstrong has read our latest discussion here (because I've been emailing him to) and has responded to CoinCube's doubts about financial motivation: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/08/sorry-donations-not-accepted-just-spread-the-word/Sorry Donations Not Accepted – Just Spread the Word
COMMENT: Hello Sir, ive been following you for years and though i struggle to understand how to read /interpret your data ive still managed to trade your pointers and make some money when i can understand it. for all youve done and continue to do im certain many of us are grateful more than we can express. may i offer some payment or donation to you and your service while i await to join your coming system.
thank you so much Martin
Sincerely Joe
REPLY: Thank you for your generous offer. The market have been like an ATM machine for me over the years. For that I am thankful. So what I do is not for money. I have more than enough to live for my remaining years. What I do is to try to bring some enlightenment for the future to try my best to leave behind a better world for my children rather than a world far worse than I grew up in. That is a serious challenge. One I know is a difficult task. The only way to accomplish that lofty goal is to spread the word and hopefully it will create an echo around the world that will rise to a roar when the times get dark ahead.
We all can see this progressive collapse of society. We have to push back to save the future from the evils of the past. Fortunately, I do not need money even for preparing for the IPO to institutionalize what I have discovered. So we do not need venture capital and that makes all the difference. I can fund whatever we need to do and that provides ample security even for our staff. So thanks again. We do not accept donations. Just spread the word.
I understand that "spreading the word" can be very lucrative marketing ploy when selling access to your reports and services. I understand he sells reports and services. I also understand being able to self fund gives him security and independence. Please note that if Armstrong open sources his models entirely and too soon, then perhaps the powers that be don't need him any more, and they can proceed to kill him. For the time being, they need him because they do indeed call him up for advice (this is a fact!). My well established understanding is he is trying to time his strategy in terms of protecting the models and maximize what he can accomplish within his remaining lifespan. I saw only gold and white (with a slight bluish tint on the white in the rightmost photo), but then it suddenly changed to black and blue. Perhaps I have a very flexible mind. I was able to get myself to see it as gold and white again for brief second then I watched it melt to black and blue like a 1 second animation transition effect. Bizzare!
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March 08, 2015, 10:34:29 AM Last edit: March 08, 2015, 11:10:37 AM by iamback |
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CoinCube, I would start with his blog archive. His prison writings were incoherent to me at the time. Maybe they would make more sense now. He was at a severe disadvantage of not having access to his resources (including no internet, no computer, no database) and using only a typewriter and a pencil to make drawings and charts.
I realize you are trying to go back further in time to try to gain more specificity with distance from the present, in order to judge his predictive accuracy over time distance. I explain below why that is the wrong paradigm of what is predicted.
Any way, I think you should learn to delegate to experts, so you don't become inefficient. The maximum division-of-labor applies. You could decide to trust my analysis of Armstrong.
I still can't fathom how you could have read his post about banksters leasing space at the WA D.C. Capital building as anything other than sarcasm. He is quite sarcastic in other blog posts, which you will gain a respect for if you read his entire blog archive as I have. Your opinion signifies great disrespect for Armstrong. There is no way you could view someone you respect as making such a claim. There is no way to make such a claim in error. One either believes it could be true, or realizes it is implausible and a joke. So sorry, but for as long as you hold this view, I will see you as a person who does not respect Armstrong. Since I respect immensely what Armstrong has accomplished, the $100 millions he selflessly donated to this cause, and the extreme importance at this juncture of what he has accomplished over 3 decades of effort, I am greatly indebted to the man more so than I am to Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, and Thomas Paine. And surely you don't disrespect the forefathers of our Constitution and principles of liberty. He even for example taught me that China and Asia will rise to be the new financial capitals of the world; and from that concept I was able to gain much more insight on the importance of government as % of GDP and make better planning about where I should emigrate and reside. Thus I am upset (disappointed) with you that you display disproportionate (unfair) levels of gratitude and respect. I had up to this point, seen you as a marvellously fair, generous, and good will driven person. I could understand your apprehensions based on some clear reasons for doubt. But you haven't been able to dig up anything significant. And your opinion this particular joke, stinks really bad, because there is no reason to doubt he was expressing sarcasm. Do you have any reason whatsoever to think so? Does he ever exhibit such sort of careless disrespect for plausible reality? NO! HELL NO! FUCK NO!
The error he made on alleging the shrapnel holes were machine gun fire was one of a few examples where I have seen him jump too quickly to sensationalize a news story to support his thesis of how bad government is. His noble goal (although I disagree with the efficacy of his ideas) is to motivate readers to support a solution which would involve direct democracy and other ideas he has for solutions. But it was an acceptable error, because I even on first sight thought the holes could plausibly be from bullet holes. But further analysis revealed that it was not plausible. So that is quite different than presenting something clearly implausible as plausible, which is the case on your (erroneous) opinion of his Capital building blog post.
I would be the first to bolt from my loyalty and gratitude if I had any inkling of fraud.
But still you are apparently missing the most salient point— there doesn't need to be any articulation from Armstrong of a prediction in the past. His cyclical model turn dates are implicitly predictions.
As for short-term predictions such as where he wrote on his blog in August 2012 that the Dow (DJIA) could double to 24,000 and possibly a phase transition to 35,000 before 2015.75, he was careful to point out (not all in the same post but over the month or so of posts) that this was contingent on whether the Dow did not invert to align with the Private assets side of the ECM. Note the Dow did rise consistently since that August 2012 contrarian prediction and did nearly double. It the Dow remained aligned with the Public assets, then it would peak 2015.75, but if it inverted to align with private assets such as gold, then it would peak on the half-wave of Pi on 2017.325 which is now the current prediction since the inversion obviously occurred (which he had said he would know with certainty by the close of 2014).
The prediction of the interaction of specific asset classes or specific events with various cyclical models (ECM, War Cycle, 224-year Political change, 51.6-year Public/Private oscillation, etc), is much more complex and conditioned on predicates.
So we can say for example that his War Cycle model predicted an event like 9/11, but it would have been much more difficult to predict in advance that the specific event was 9/11 (the place and people involved and that it was focused on terrorism). Although I want to tell you that since the first basement bombing of 9/11, I was expecting it would be bombed again and the next time it be much more catastrophic. Had I been aware of Armstrong's models in 2000, aware of the Neocon whitepapers on Iraq, and aware that the terrorists were drawing planes hitting the WTC in their prison cells at the MCC as Armstrong was (he was imprisoned there with them), I would have likely pinpointed the WTC as a likely candidate for the War Cycle turn date.
So this is why your judgement of his weather prediction is entirely off base. You are judging it based on unrealistic expectations (you are too obsessed with trying to nail down too specifically the specific minute details of the prediction; whereas the predictions necessarily can't always be exact on certain specifics but close enough and can ALWAYS be exact on timing). The weather did indeed become more abnormal right on time with the cyclical model. Your focus on Armstrong's articulation of what sort of abnormality he expected is entirely irrelevant. The cyclical weather model did not fail.
For example, the pandemic cycle peaks in 2019. This means we will get some kind of pandemic event. What is not clear yet is whether it will be one that kills a significant portion of the global population or if it is more limited in mortality and scope. Armstrong said he might try to produce a more detailed model on this soon. I hope so.
Armstrong is employing a real-time computer system with 32,000 variables to get more accurate at determining the specifics of events before they occur. Without that additional complexity, all we know is that significant events happen on turn dates, and their significance must be relevant to the model's taxonomy, e.g. Snowden's expose on April 2013 was relevant to the 224-year peak in the Political Change Cycle Model (for the USA).
Armstrong was able to pinpoint Ukraine as the focal point of the 2014 War Cycle turn date well in advance of it beginning.
P.S. You can add numerous predictions he articulated and got correct, for example the 2014 (Dec 31) closing price for oil below $57 which he made back when oil was over $100. There are so many examples. I have not enumerated them all. Sorry I will leave that as homework for those who are interested to save themselves from what is coming.
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