Economic Devastation

[coinits]

The Knowledge Age in action in Chile!

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/yerka-the-unstealable-bike

Also Chile looks like a nice place in this video.

Again note the crime in Latin America is elevated, and maybe that is because they have shorter index fingers (sign of elevated neo-natal testosterone), c.f. my post upthread about the longest penises (other than the Congo) being in South America.

South America? A lot of hidden gems their where people exist in harmony with each other and nature. If I was bugging out to a South American country it would be the former Dutch colony of Suirname. China has invested a lot of money into their resources sector but it is not exerting undue influence yet.

[coinits]

Fiat is a problem. It is their slavery tool. Perpetual debt and wealth stealing.

I had already replied to you:

[1] Human nature can't be changed, that is unrealistic and "pie in the sky" delusion. Instead we need technology that enables us to opt-out of the collectivism.

To eliminate fiat, you need to eliminate humans.

Well that doesn't work. Need a better plan Stan.

[coinits]

From Bix Wier this AM:

It's so ugly out in the banking world...THAT THEY CAN'T TALK ABOUT IT!!! The world is silent. The stock market is all they see, hear and taste. New highs! New highs!! The world is great...just don't look under the hood.

Europe is imploding as we speak and it is spreading...count each domino...

A Black Swan Lands in Southern Austria: The Ripple Effects...Mini-Greece
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-08/black-swan-lands-southern-austria-ripple-effects-mini-greece-going-heartland-europe

DOMINO #1 - "In Austria whereby the "bad bank" of failed Hypo Alpe Adria - the Heta Asset Resolution AG - itself went from good to bad, with its creditors forced into an involuntary "bail-in" following the "discovery" of a $8.5 billion capital hole in its balance sheet primarily related to ongoing deterioration in central and eastern European economies."

DOMINO #2 - "This shocking announcement promptly sent the price of Heta's bonds crashing as creditors, no longer enjoying the explicit guarantee of the state, scrambled to get out of "northern Europe's" first Lehman moment."

DOMINO #3 - "Austria’s decision to wind down Heta Asset Resolution AG sent ripples through the financial system, causing credit rating downgrades in Austria and bank losses in Germany."

DOMINO #4 - "The Heta bonds are notionally guaranteed by the Austrian state of Carinthia, which is now theoretically becomes liable for the bail-in."

DOMINO #5 - "Carinthia provides deficiency guarantee on Heta's senior debt: the total is equivalent to €10.2 billion, or nearly five times the state's 2014 operating revenue."

DOMINO #6 - "In other words, we now have a waterfall bailout chain whereby the state guaranteeing the debt of the insolvent entity that guaranteed yet another insolvent entity, will itself need to be bailed out by the sovereign, Austria!"

DOMINO #7 - "Among Heta’s liabilities affected by the moratorium and a future bail-in are 1.24 billion euros Heta owes to Pfandbriefbank Oesterreich AG, which issues bonds on behalf of Austrian provincial banks."

DOMINO #8 - "There is an incentive for the member banks to jointly step in for missing payments from HETAR, as otherwise debt holders of PFBKOS bonds could claim payment from any of the member banks individually."

DOMINO #9 - "A number of Austrian banks including HYPO NOE GRUPPE AG and Vorarlberger Landes- und Hypothekenbank AG reported in their annual accounts for 2013 that they had direct exposure to HAA."

DOMINO #10 - "Many have been saying that one should have known that a province like Carinthia can’t guarantee for debts of that size.”

DOMINO #11 - "The very same bonds that are about to lead to a waterfall in impairments are the ones that were, according to EU regulations, "riskless."

DOMINO #12 - "As of year-end 2013, there were about €60bn of claims guaranteed by Austrian regions."

DOMINO #13 - "German banks yesterday also emerged as major Heta bondholders. Dexia’s Dexia Kommunalbank Deutschland AG said it owns 395 million euros of Heta bonds and will take an unspecified charge in the first quarter."

DOMINO #14 - "Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG also owns 395 million euros of Heta bonds and said it will write them down by 120 million euros, cutting its expected pretax profit by two-thirds."

DOMINO #15 - "NRW Bank confirmed it owned Heta bonds, declining to specify the size of its exposure. WDR TV station reported the bank owns 276 million euros of them."

DOMINO #16 - and finally...

"While German banks had spent the past 3 years preparing for the inevitable Grexit and offloading all their exposure to the now insolvent Greek state, it was a waterfall chain of events which started in Germany's own "back yard", courtesy of auditors who decided it was unnecessary to mark losses to market until it was far too late, and the immediate outcome is that one ninth of until recently Aaa/AAA-rated Austria is now also insolvent. And that is just the beginning."

[iamback]

Fiat is a problem. It is their slavery tool. Perpetual debt and wealth stealing.

I had already replied to you:

[1] Human nature can't be changed, that is unrealistic and "pie in the sky" delusion. Instead we need technology that enables us to opt-out of the collectivism.

To eliminate fiat, you need to eliminate humans.

Well that doesn't work. Need a better plan Stan.

I see you need eyeglasses, so I magnified the text for you.

I provided one.

[bigtimespaghetti]

coinits, I think Bix is jumping to conclusions, from what I've read there will be no bailout from the Austrian government- I read part of a statement from the Austrian Finance Minister. While this is a municipal default like Detroit I believe he stated that a certain amount of the debt will still be repaid, but the buck will stop with this default.
The state of Carinthia was left in a mess by previous politicians allowing these state guarantees, this default is exactly as it should be. An unjust debt being reneged on. I'm not saying that's exactly what is happening, but I do not believe this is a black swan. I believe that the losses will be contained, this time. Perhaps the ECB will extend their QE to buy up this toxic sludge like the Fed has previously done in a similar fashion.

[coinits]

Fiat is a problem. It is their slavery tool. Perpetual debt and wealth stealing.

I had already replied to you:

[1] Human nature can't be changed, that is unrealistic and "pie in the sky" delusion. Instead we need technology that enables us to opt-out of the collectivism.

To eliminate fiat, you need to eliminate humans.

Well that doesn't work. Need a better plan Stan.

I see you need eyeglasses, so I magnified the text for you.

I provided one.

No. You provided stinky linkies. Have a good day.

Oh, and you should take a Toastmaster Course and become skilled in your interactions with others. Talking down and being condescending towards others is not becoming of someone who is trying to present an idea.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Oh, and you should take a Toastmaster Course and become skilled in your interactions with others. Talking down and being condescending towards others is not becoming of someone who is trying to present an idea.

I think you are being over-sensitive coinits, I've followed iamback for a while now, he may be blunt on occasion but it is mostly because he is tired of wasting his time re-explaining things over and over. I can recommend reading through his writings which are here and linked multiple times throughout these threads. While I haven't completely read them yet myself (it would takes me days possibly weeks) I think once you start you will gain an appreciation for the breadth of iambacks experience and perception.

[picolo]

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

Together these are quite simply the most insightful piece of economic theory I have ever read.

If the author is right and I think he is we are all in the midst of a tragedy of epic proportions.  It is sad unstoppable and will devastate the lives of much of humanity.




Edit: 12/18/2014
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This thread is now over 20 pages and too long to realistically expect a reader to cover from start to finish. There have been multiple requests for a roadmap or guide to the ideas covered in this thread. In response to the latest request I wrote the the following roadmap.

You write a lot of interesting things but I really have to ask for some sort of roadmap to your universe.  I’m not asking for a summary*¹ but a sitemap, a directory where the main ideas and concepts*² are mentioned. Catching up with a linear approach*³  isn’t really doable especially if one wants to reach actionable status before the projected*⁴  economic meltdown/madmax.

I know that spoon feeding doesn’t seem to be your style but every little bit off accessibility helps someone over the threshold.

Thanks for any reply

Having walked this road myself I may be able to help. The overall thesis is not something that is easy to instantly grasp and it is scattered in various places making it difficult to approach in a piecemeal fashion.

It is best to start with a secure understanding of our financial system as it truly is. The three links on finance below were inspired by Anonymint's overall insight and are less deep than Anonymint's writing making them a good starting point. Part I covers fractional reserve banking what it is and how it works in a modern economy, Part II covers the business cycle how fractional reserve leads to recurrent and cyclical booms and busts impoverishing the masses. Part III covers how fractional reserve banking leads to government capture and the eventual economic strangulation of the economy.  

Finance Part I: Understanding the Parasite
Finance Part II: The Parasitic Cycle
Finance Part III: Divide, Conquer, Enslave

Once you understand the basics of the modern financial system you are ready to move on to Anonymint's more complex writings and ideas. I would start with

Understand Everything Fundamentally

Understand everything fundamentally covers the broader principle of collectivism and its dangers including the tragic consequences of our current economic trajectory. It also covers the principles of centralization and degrees-of-freedom in the economy. Next up is

The Rise of Knowledge

The rise of knowledge is in my opinion the very best of Anonymint's writing. In it he covers finance and why the role of finance and debt will progressively decline in the future. It is a compelling argument that describes how and why humanity will eventually and inevitability break free of the chains of finance and unrestrained collectivism and enter an age of knowledge.  
    
Anonymint's writings above are missing a discussion of the proper role of socialism in society. For this I would refer you to the Mad Max thread specifically posts 125-128 where we discussed the proper and gradually declining role of socialism in a future knowledge age.
 
Finally for extra credit you can read Information is Alive Here Anonymint defines knowledge and explains why knowledge and thought are not fungible.

Any body of knowledge needs a name if it is sufficiently complex and different from existing schools of thought. In this case that name is Contentionism

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

A good summary of the summary is : It is best to start with a secure understanding of our financial system as it truly is. The three links on finance below were inspired by Anonymint's overall insight and are less deep than Anonymint's writing making them a good starting point. Part I covers fractional reserve banking what it is and how it works in a modern economy, Part II covers the business cycle how fractional reserve leads to recurrent and cyclical booms and busts impoverishing the masses. Part III covers how fractional reserve banking leads to government capture and the eventual economic strangulation of the economy. 

[iamback]

Talking down and being condescending towards others is not becoming of someone who is trying to present an idea.

The pot calling the kettle black:

Need a better plan Stan.

No. You provided stinky linkies. Have a good day.

You have absolutely no indepth understanding of what I have proposed, already developed, nor of my technical acumen, nor that I am the foundation of this entire thread.

You are in my house.

Either recognize that fact, or get off my lawn kiddie.

[coinits]

Talking down and being condescending towards others is not becoming of someone who is trying to present an idea.

The pot calling the kettle black.

I do not disagree with you on that but you will find that I am rather civilized and respectful when treated the same.

[iamback]

coinits, I think Bix is jumping to conclusions, from what I've read there will be no bailout from the Austrian government- I read part of a statement from the Austrian Finance Minister. While this is a municipal default like Detroit I believe he stated that a certain amount of the debt will still be repaid, but the buck will stop with this default.
The state of Carinthia was left in a mess by previous politicians allowing these state guarantees, this default is exactly as it should be. An unjust debt being reneged on. I'm not saying that's exactly what is happening, but I do not believe this is a black swan. I believe that the losses will be contained, this time. Perhaps the ECB will extend their QE to buy up this toxic sludge like the Fed has previously done in a similar fashion.

Armstrong predicted over a year ago that the default of Europe would originate in Austria. He said it is because cycles repeat and that Austria was the start of the defaults in Europe in the 1900s crisis period.

From Bix Wier

I traded emails with him roughly 5 years ago refuting his "Yellow Brick Road" theory about former President Reagan planting a future bomb Trojan horse on Central Banking. He argued that was what the movie was secretly about.

(I am surprised I could still recall those details about Bix Wier, given all the chaos in my life in the intervening years)

[iamback]

I have always thought that David Icke was a nutter but maybe he is on to something about these out-of-phase vibrational lizard beings that are in control.

I do not disagree with you on that but you will find that I am rather civilized and respectful when treated the same.

And you will find similarly of me, if you learn to respect me first. Which means go understand how influential and accurate I have been first before being so flippant with me.

One of the reasons I know I disgree with you fundamentally is because you are a goldbug. I was a tinfoil hat, rpietillian(lol)/lizard-hating neophyte too before until I learned. I used to own 18,000oz of silver and I used to manufacture silver 1oz rounds and ship them to rpietila in Finland. I was buying Comex 1000oz bars at $9/troy oz and turning them into silver rounds. I also in October 2010 publicly predicted the rise from $22 to $45-46 and collapse to $26 for Spring of 2011.

Fiat is not the problem, because eliminating it can't be done thus there is no solution. Period. Money will always be about confidence, power law distribution of wealth and knowledge, social organization, a common unit-of-account, etc.. There are fundamental facts of nature that can't be changed.

A current proposed solution for opting out of failure (so the fiats can die and renew without harming those who opt out) is a high-latency Tor-like onion routing network which I have written about in great detail in a thread on this forum. One of the key points is to rid it of Sybil attacks, it can't be free. There are numerous other technical and marketing points.

I have also proposed (or agreed with BitShares BitUSD BitAssets) that we can peg crypto-currencies to external units-of-account. That doesn't eliminate them (because the unit-of-account won't have a carrying cost), but gives us people a choice to opt out at a carrying cost. For high profit margin Knowledge Age workers, this is probably a no brainer choice considering the Technocracy regulation coming down the pike, e.g. Net Neutrality charade, China institutionalizing NSA gestapo in their law, etc.

[bigtimespaghetti]

coinits, I think Bix is jumping to conclusions, from what I've read there will be no bailout from the Austrian government- I read part of a statement from the Austrian Finance Minister. While this is a municipal default like Detroit I believe he stated that a certain amount of the debt will still be repaid, but the buck will stop with this default.
The state of Carinthia was left in a mess by previous politicians allowing these state guarantees, this default is exactly as it should be. An unjust debt being reneged on. I'm not saying that's exactly what is happening, but I do not believe this is a black swan. I believe that the losses will be contained, this time. Perhaps the ECB will extend their QE to buy up this toxic sludge like the Fed has previously done in a similar fashion.

Armstrong predicted over a year ago that the default of Europe would originate in Austria. He said it is because cycles repeat and that Austria was the start of the defaults in Europe in the 1900s crisis period.

From Bix Wier

I traded emails with him roughly 5 years ago refuting his "Yellow Brick Road" theory about former President Reagan planting a future bomb Trojan horse on Central Banking. He argued that was what the movie was secretly about.

Interesting that MA predicted this. I'm still of the opinion that this is a periphery default as of now- merely the early warning signs. If dominoes start to fall in the next few months I'm happy to admit that I'm wrong.

My opinion is that Bix Weir is a huckster and a charlatan, peddling grains of truth in his writing, diving down rabbit holes to string together his own story which he markets incredibly well (at least considering the content). No doubt there are myriad rabbit holes to go down on various interrelated topics as many of us have done in the past.

[iamback]

Interesting that MA predicted this. I'm still of the opinion that this is a periphery default as of now- merely the early warning signs. If dominoes start to fall in the next few months I'm happy to admit that I'm wrong.

Armstrong predicted it would set off cascading defaults. And now we see Austrian banks will be allowed to default on their creditors, thus Armstrong is correct yet again.

I am trying to warn you not to enter that real estate loan.

So I appreciate coinits' post for eludicating this.

My opinion is that Bix Weir is a huckster and a charlatan, peddling grains of truth in his writing, diving down rabbit holes to string together his own story which he markets incredibly well (at least considering the content). No doubt there are myriad rabbit holes to go down on various interrelated topics as many of us have done in the past.

As are all those goldbugs promoters. And that is why I don't respect much those goldbugs who are still following them because I know they are deluded. I know without needing to ask that they read Alex Jones, Kitco.com, David Icke, CaseyResearch.com, etc.. No one talks about how pitiful their actual prediction record is (they probably make their money on subscribers and cozy private placements, etc). Perhaps their tech guru Katusa has a bonafide record of great investments (I haven't verified it).

I remember telling David Galland of CaseyResearch in email (they banned me from their forum for speaking heresies frankly) that their advice several years ago to short Treasuries expecting higher interest rates was premature. I told them that their Fundamental Analysis was myopic.

Armstrong was the lone voice who also owns gold coins, who was predicting (before 2011) that gold would decline from its 2011 highs to below $1000.

I hope CoinCube can start to get a taste of my experience and why I can discern that Armstrong is the real prognosticator of merit, especially long-term. Nadeem Walayat of marketoracle.co.uk also has an impressively accurate record of precise near-term market timing predictions. BTW, that essay I wrote predicting the silver price rise and fall wasn't intended to be published. I emailed that hastily and sloppily written insight to Nadeem to ask his opinion, and he decided to publish it.

P.S. Both Armstrong and myself think gold has a role to play. We are not anti-gold. We are just being rational instead of deluded.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Interesting that MA predicted this. I'm still of the opinion that this is a periphery default as of now- merely the early warning signs. If dominoes start to fall in the next few months I'm happy to admit that I'm wrong.

I am trying to warn you not to enter that real estate loan.

And I really appreciate your concern. A a short side note, off topic, my bank has recently changed it's policies (literally this month) making a loan far less attractive to me. So perhaps I have dodged a bullet.

[OROBTC]

...

Wow, I am away from the computer for some 14 hours, you know to get some sleep and stuff, and the dialog here has exploded...

A lot of material to wade through iamback, bigtimespaghetti and coinits!  (I agree, bigtimespaghetti: you may be better off without a real estate loan...)

Heta and Carinthia may be the news of the day, I have just signed on to the 'Net, so I am not up to speed on the news of the moment.


*** Bix Weir has a bad reputation among the guy I respect the most re gold. ***


*** I agree that we MUST have a circulating fiat currency that is not tied to gold. ***


I suspect that iamback is right: "the solution" (freedom) has to come from technology.

More later, when I can think of something to contribute.

[CoinCube]

I am trying to warn you not to enter that real estate loan.

And I really appreciate your concern. A a short side note, off topic, my bank has recently changed it's policies (literally this month) making a loan far less attractive to me. So perhaps I have dodged a bullet.

I faced a similar decision a few months ago and decided to rent for a few reasons.

1) Taxes are rising and will continue to rise in the west. Property tax is thus a huge and unknown future liability.

2) If the predicted downturn in 2015.75 happens we are looking at a time of unprecedented economic chaos and a potential deflationary collapse. In the Great Depression everything crashed hard against the dollar. Even silver declined by 50% because there was a liquidity crisis and everyone needed dollars to make their debt payments.

3) Fractional reserve banking is an immoral institution. Why participate if you don't have to? If you understand the scam why help perputate it if you have the option to opt out.

4) With huge debts you are gambling with your future freedom. If you screw up you set yourself up as a debt slave. In a time when the global economic system is obviously fraying at the seams I see little reason to take the risk.

[bigtimespaghetti]

I am trying to warn you not to enter that real estate loan.

And I really appreciate your concern. A a short side note, off topic, my bank has recently changed it's policies (literally this month) making a loan far less attractive to me. So perhaps I have dodged a bullet.

I faced a similar decision a few months ago and decided to rent for a few reasons.

1) Taxes are rising and will continue to rise in the west. Property tax is thus a huge and unknown future liability.

2) If the predicted downturn in 2015.75 happens we are looking at a time of unprecedented economic chaos and a potential deflationary collapse. In the Great Depression everything crashed hard against the dollar. Even silver declined by 50% because there was a liquidity crisis and everyone needed dollars to make their debt payments.

3) Fractional reserve banking is an immoral institution. Why participate if you don't have to? If you understand the scam why help perputate it if you have the option to opt out.

4) With huge debts you are gambling with your future freedom. If you screw up you set yourself up as a debt slave. In a time when the global economic system is obviously fraying at the seams I see little reason to take the risk.

Thanks for the input CoinCube. iamback has persistently warned me that I would be making a big mistake. I was considering taking the risk as I would have had to use little of my own capital and also insurance against default was mandatory so I figured that there was little risk. This isn't really the case now as a down payment which makes the loan far less attractive.

I think my optimism/head in the sand was/is partly due to being duped in my early 20s by the doom sayers and buying into the collapse-mongers. But Armstrong is fairly unbiased and makes an excellent case. Part of me believes that TPTB are gonna run this into the ground. Which makes me wonder if there is any safe place to put my capital now.

I guess I'll just enjoy my canal side rented flat for now- at least I can really enjoy living in Amsterdam, "until they fill these canals with bodies"- as a similar minded work colleague said half in jest.

[CoinCube]

I think my optimism/head in the sand was/is partly due to being duped in my early 20s by the doom sayers and buying into the collapse-mongers. But Armstrong is fairly unbiased and makes an excellent case. Part of me believes that TPTB are gonna run this into the ground. Which makes me wonder if there is any safe place to put my capital now.

Even if we completely discard Armstrong, the essays and logic in this thread provide a powerful and internally consistent forecast that addresses the who, what, where, and why of our current economic decline. What Armstrong potentially adds to this is the when. As my recent back and forth with iamback makes clear I am not yet sold on Armstrong but I am most certainly not disregarding him either. You don't need Armstrong to see the trend and the trend is very bad.

I don't think real estate is in itself a bad investment but it is very easy to tax so you need to look closely at the underlying fiscal situation of your area. Is your country insolvent when you account for debt and promised pensions/benefits. In the end this will drive long term taxation. If the fundamentals are bad the productive will leave causing the fundamentals to deteriorate further. For an insolvent government fixed immovable real estate is low hanging fruit.

[VERUMinNUMERIS]

Armstrong has been right to a scary point of accuracy.

I wouldn't disregard anything the man says.