bitcoin-trader.biz

[nrd525]

There are thousands of bitcoin day traders. Do you think Bitcoin Trader can compete against all of them and earn consistent and significant positive daily returns?

Answer: no they cannot.  The arbitrage profits are small (especially when shared with all the other arbitragers), irregular, and pose greater risks of losses (due to the market moving when you move your bitcoins - this can take 30 minutes, or slippage) then what Bitcoin Trader results show.

Historically, the greatest opportunities for arbitrage have all come from risky exchanges.  MtGox had a 5-10% premium in price - because a lot of people didn't trust them.  The Chinese exchanges had a large premium from Oct-Dec 2013 (during the insane price surge) because it was hard for non-Chinese to get money into them, the risk of Chinese government regulation, and ultimately they crashed harder than the non-Chinese exchanges and had their share of fraudulent exchanges get shut-down.  

[Light]

There are thousands of bitcoin day traders. Do you think Bitcoin Trader can compete against all of them and earn consistent and significant positive daily returns?

Answer: no they cannot.  The arbitrage profits are small (especially when shared with all the other arbitragers), irregular, and pose greater risks of losses (due to the market moving when you move your bitcoins - this can take 30 minutes, or slippage) then what Bitcoin Trader results show.

This is clear as day for anyone who actually took a moment to think about such a scheme. Not to mention if they could do it consistently they would've found funding from venture capitalists in no time rather than having to ask random strangers over the internet for money. It's surprising how many people let their greed overtake their logic.

[peddycb]

I really do not understand what you want here ...
I have all my money will be returned after 4 months ...
I'm now working only with the win ... 

[peddycb]

a financial license you need for venture capitalists
that gets bitcoin trader but not because
the banks hear bitcoin ..., bank says no
should if it were an investment ... then it has to run on a bank-
but banks are against the bitcoin ...

no investor wants a profit margin after 4 months 

[Killerloop]

There are thousands of bitcoin day traders. Do you think Bitcoin Trader can compete against all of them and earn consistent and significant positive daily returns?

Answer: no they cannot.  The arbitrage profits are small (especially when shared with all the other arbitragers), irregular, and pose greater risks of losses (due to the market moving when you move your bitcoins - this can take 30 minutes, or slippage) then what Bitcoin Trader results show.

Actually it is the exact opposite.

Yes they can compete against, and easily defeat, a bitcoin day trader. With the funds they have they don't need to move anything to practice their arbitrage; BT holds fiat and BTC deposits across several exchanges so zero slippage. Buy there and sell there, done! They move away only profits with no hurry at all.
Unless you have such capitalization you cannot compete against them because any day trader trying to do this will face slippage.

This is clear as day for anyone who actually took a moment to think about such a scheme. Not to mention if they could do it consistently they would've found funding from venture capitalists in no time rather than having to ask random strangers over the internet for money. It's surprising how many people let their greed overtake their logic.

It is not, anyone with a decent experience in forex and venture investment can tell you that.

First, any venture capitalist will probably flat out refuse because:

- He does not understand cryptocurrency
- He does not believe in cryptocurrency
- You will operate in a non regulated, non recognized market. There is no counterpart guarantee, the exchange may flee with your money.
- The cryptocurrency exchange market is very small compared to forex, binary options and the like.
- To outweight these risks/problems he would probably like to slam a 10%-15% monthly interest in your face... and he can't. You could take their money, use it and later sue them for loan sharking/usury.

Second, once you access that kind of credit you enter the fiscal world ---> 30-40% of your profit lost in taxes, licenses and professional advice, not to mention a ludicrous amount of time.

[nrd525]

Slippage is the difference between what you can buy 0.000001 BTC (or an infinitely small number of BTC, or the smallest an exchange will let you trade) and what you will pay to buy N BTC.  The greater N, the greater slippage.

Another way of putting it - there are more arbitrage opportunities for trades of 0.01 BTC then there are for 10 BTC.

[Killerloop]

Slippage is the difference between what you can buy 0.000001 BTC (or an infinitely small number of BTC, or the smallest an exchange will let you trade) and what you will pay to buy N BTC.  The greater N, the greater slippage.

Another way of putting it - there are more arbitrage opportunities for trades of 0.01 BTC then there are for 10 BTC.

I beg your pardon but slippage is "the difference between when the computer signaled the entry and exit for a trade and when actual clients, with actual money, entered and exited the market using the computer’s signals. Market-impacted, liquidity, and frictional costs may also contribute."

So if you try to do arbitrage moving BitCoin between buy and sell actions you will suffer slippage as you are unable to do anything during money transfers when price moves.

Viceversa if you are "solid" enough to keep liquidity in multiple currencies in all exchanges (as real big banks/traders do) you won't suffer slippage. You may have few occasions as cryptocurrencies market is low compared to bigger ones like forex but that's it.

[nrd525]

Hmm, so I guess I should be using the term liquidity instead of slippage?

Eg. I get a market signal to buy - but there is only 0.01 BTC available at the current ask, so if I want to buy at higher asks.

This makes it a lot easier to do arbitrage with small amounts than with larger ones.

[Killerloop]

Hmm, so I guess I should be using the term liquidity instead of slippage?
Eg. I get a market signal to buy - but there is only 0.01 BTC available at the current ask, so if I want to buy at higher asks.
This makes it a lot easier to do arbitrage with small amounts than with larger ones.

The only thing that an arbitrage trader should really consider is: average spread.

As long as you can buy X BTC at an average price Y at exchange 1 while you sell X btc at an average price Z>Y at exchange 2 you should do it. X's size doesn't matter.

It gets a bit more complex when dealing with multiple exchanges simultaneously but the concept is the same. Average buy vs Average sell

So the answer to your question is yes: I could buy at higher ask IF I want, this will raise my average buy price according to the volume purchased. But it can be profitable anyway if the other exchanges have enough volume and profitable sell orders.

[Grinder]

As long as you can buy X BTC at an average price Y at exchange 1 while you sell X btc at an average price Z>Y at exchange 2 you should do it. X's size doesn't matter.

Of course X matters. The profit (before transaction costs) will be X*(Z-Y), which makes the size of X just as important as the size of the spread. If X is just $1/day there's not really much point. The fact that Bitcoin-trader claims to have about the same profit level now as in the beginning is just more evidence that they are lying and that it's a ponzi. Another evidence is their claim of not trading on weekends. Anyone doing real Bitcoin arbitrage knows that you need to automate it, and when that's done there's no reason for not running it 24/7.

[Killerloop]

Of course X matters. The profit (before transaction costs) will be X*(Z-Y), which makes the size of X just as important as the size of the spread. If X is just $1/day there's not really much point.

No it doesn't since X is not $1 but a lot more, volume is in the hundred of BTC daily.

The fact that Bitcoin-trader claims to have about the same profit level now as in the beginning is just more evidence that they are lying and that it's a ponzi. Another evidence is their claim of not trading on weekends. Anyone doing real Bitcoin arbitrage knows that you need to automate it, and when that's done there's no reason for not running it 24/7.

I can't say anything for sure, but these reasons you provided are pretty silly. Automatic trade within an exchange is easy to do, automatic arbitrage between exchanges is extremely difficult to implement, fund and mantain. They have software to aid them for sure but 100% auto? Crazy.
Just to mention something: the weekend would be a good time to "clear house": rebalance accounts between exchanges and cash out earnings.

So far they look legit and are paying, is this enough? Dunno, I'm pretty sure the scam induced paranoia has smothered many good ideas.

[Grinder]

I can't say anything for sure, but these reasons you provided are pretty silly. Automatic trade within an exchange is easy to do, automatic arbitrage between exchanges is extremely difficult to implement, fund and mantain. They have software to aid them for sure but 100% auto? Crazy.

You clearly have no idea how real arbitrage trading works and you're not going to listen to anyone who might burst your bubble, so why bother. I didn't expect anyone to repeat it successfully less than a year after Pirate was caught, but I guess Barnum got it right.

[Killerloop]

You clearly have no idea how real arbitrage trading works and you're not going to listen to anyone who might burst your bubble, so why bother.

You shouldn't. "Dismiss by ignorance" is a way of life I do not like, but I'm not judging you.

I've made my due diligence before investing a small amount in this program and my oldest share will expire in two months. We will see who is right 

[pleiotropik]

So much FUD... Sigh.  Invest only that which you can lose. That applies to Bitcoin Trader as well as to Exxon. i'm a month away from shares maturity and i will report if the cashout goes without a hitch.

[ranlo]

So much FUD... Sigh.  Invest only that which you can lose. That applies to Bitcoin Trader as well as to Exxon. i'm a month away from shares maturity and i will report if the cashout goes without a hitch.

This right here. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. In anything.

I will say that so far that the trading profits on the site are averaging around 1% per day (so 20% interest after 4 months, basically, or 60% a year or more if you are reinvesting). Whether that trend will continue or not is uncertain. But at least for now, it's proving to be a good buy.

[nrd525]

Somebody should start a bitbet or arrange an escrowed bet.  I'm guessing this will be gone in 2-8 months. It's hard to predict the demise of a ponzi, but the greater the rate of the return - the shorter it lasts.

[leancuisine]

I invested three months ago, with a $260 investment, and I have already withdrawn close to $120 worth. Not bad if the site would still be running in a few months.

[ranlo]

I invested three months ago, with a $260 investment, and I have already withdrawn close to $120 worth. Not bad if the site would still be running in a few months.

Was your investment in the trade sharing or the mining?

[JCviggen]

With the funds they have they don't need to move anything to practice their arbitrage; BT holds fiat and BTC deposits across several exchanges so zero slippage. Buy there and sell there, done!

Wouldn't work. I've been arbitraging "safely" between multiple exchanges for a long time without moving anything and opportunities for actual profit are pretty rare. Certainly not every day.
Say I hold BTC in BTC-e and Stamp to keep things simple. Without moving any funds I can certainly buy up a bunch of BTC and sell the same amount at the same time on Stamp, profit! But now I'm done trading until the difference in exchange rate between these 2 exchanges shows some significant change. Right now the market is so flat there is literally nothing going on and there is no real safe arbitrage opportunity (not even one which does include moving funds as the spread isn't nearly big enough to pay trading commission on both ends + money transfer fees)

There is only a 1% spread between Stamp and BTC-e right now, which is still more than it is between Huobi and Stamp. Where are their profits coming from during times where the market is flat as a pancake? It doesn't make sense. Right now the daily profits should be right around zero until volatility returns and exchanges speer off in different directions several times a day. If they are still paying good daily rates right now they have to be a ponzi.

[ranlo]

With the funds they have they don't need to move anything to practice their arbitrage; BT holds fiat and BTC deposits across several exchanges so zero slippage. Buy there and sell there, done!

Wouldn't work. I've been arbitraging "safely" between multiple exchanges for a long time without moving anything and opportunities for actual profit are pretty rare. Certainly not every day.
Say I hold BTC in BTC-e and Stamp to keep things simple. Without moving any funds I can certainly buy up a bunch of BTC and sell the same amount at the same time on Stamp, profit! But now I'm done trading until the difference in exchange rate between these 2 exchanges shows some significant change. Right now the market is so flat there is literally nothing going on and there is no real safe arbitrage opportunity (not even one which does include moving funds as the spread isn't nearly big enough to pay trading commission on both ends + money transfer fees)

There is only a 1% spread between Stamp and BTC-e right now, which is still more than it is between Huobi and Stamp. Where are their profits coming from during times where the market is flat as a pancake? It doesn't make sense. Right now the daily profits should be right around zero until volatility returns and exchanges speer off in different directions several times a day. If they are still paying good daily rates right now they have to be a ponzi.

Or it's possible that they are doing altcoin trades and not arbitrage?

Also, you can keep up with their pool profit here:

https://twitter.com/BTC_Trader

That is updated daily to tell how much % each person earned.