rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[mmitech]

I am with this author in that altcoins are pump & dump scams and you should not buy them.

Free market speaks for it self, people vote (invest) for what suites their needs, it could be innovation, or experimenting or making quick profit or helping a cause or just getting tricked and being scammed thinking they are doing one of the previous things, but surely I dont 100% agree with this article for many obvious reasons.

 also it seems a bit strange that a silver vault owner would be against alts (the classic Gold, silver and diamond debate), therefore not all alts are pump and dump schemes which I thought it was obvious, some Alts exist for for the same reason Bitcoin existed in the first place which is experimenting and many people here forget that, don't ignore the fact that we are still Beta and everything could fail.


I dont mind Alts at all, but I get annoyed of the Scams going around ( which makes me think again, any greedy deserve to learn the hard way) once you get afraid of one Alt it means it is the time to invest into it, because why should it scare you? in a free market an alt that is shitty or a scam would die in a matter of months if not weeks and we've seen that in the past couple of years so....I try to look every now and then to see if there is any interesting alts.

therefore, I would rephrase: "because there is so many scam coins out there, that were created just to pump and dump and will die quickly, I think it is safer to invest into Bitcoin as a safe option"

the only two coins that I would consider at the moment are Bitcoin, Litecoin.... look at other alts, their market cap and volume is so tiny that you cant see the name of the bubble at all.

[mmitech]

https://i.imgur.com/ff6rUYx.png

I have two problems with the volume chart that you might address . . .

1. How current is the data? I first saw this chart back some weeks.

2. I question the volume data reported for Bitcoin. I believe the data aggregators, e.g. Bitcoin Charts, have under reported Chinese exchanges - there are more than 10 of them I think.

the data is refreshed every 5-15 minutes, taken from these exchanges http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/markets/info  (huobi is not listed yet)

you can check the data daily if you want here http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/graphicalComparison

[SlipperySlope]

https://i.imgur.com/ff6rUYx.png

I have two problems with the volume chart that you might address . . .

1. How current is the data? I first saw this chart back some weeks.

2. I question the volume data reported for Bitcoin. I believe the data aggregators, e.g. Bitcoin Charts, have under reported Chinese exchanges - there are more than 10 of them I think.

the data is refreshed every 5-15 minutes, taken from these exchanges http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/markets/info  (huobi is not listed yet)

you can check the data daily if you want here http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/graphicalComparison

Great. I agree with your point that Litecoin trading volume is surprisingly high.

Interesting that by far the largest bubble on the current chart shows the LTC/CNY pair from OKCoin, but there is no data reported for the BTC/CNY pair. In contrast, BTC China shows over twice as much volume for the BTC/CNY pair than for the LTC/CNY pair.

[rpietila]

[big chart showing that bastard, Litecoin, as bigger than Bitcoin]

This chart is banned from my thread from now on.

Great. I agree with your point that Litecoin trading volume is surprisingly high.

Interesting that by far the largest bubble on the current chart shows the LTC/CNY pair from OKCoin, but there is no data reported for the BTC/CNY pair. In contrast, BTC China shows over twice as much volume for the BTC/CNY pair than for the LTC/CNY pair.

I have to say that I:
a) Don't believe for a second that LTC volume is that high, 179kBTC per day vs. 22kBTC of BTC
b) Believe that if LTC is traded against BTC, the volume should count towards both of the currencies and not LTC alone because it is smaller (especially because in your chart it is BIGGER in which case BTC should receive all the volume  )

[AlexGR]

Regarding the altcoin article: The underlying premise of liquidity is ok, but the altcoins are already dead in terms of marketcap. Their market cap is so tiny that it's not even funny - with the exception of Litecoin. So it is already factored into their price, it's not some kind of revelation.

Another issue is that he supposes all altcoins will act in the same liquid way and that they are competing in the same "there can be only one" space. An anonymous coin for example does not "go" in the same category for it serves a different purpose that the transparent coins cannot handle.

When you have an anonymous coin, the monopoly of the transparent market is broken and a new option is presented to the people on how to conduct their payments. Do you want to pay with your visa (so that the government can see what you bought) or use cash? So there are two different needs, covered by two different types of coins.

Supposing a 10bn BTC market cap, if just 1% of the transparent market chooses the emerging option of anonymity => that could translate to 100mn market cap. There is serious potential there. Will Bitcoin cover the anonymity/privacy needs of its user base? Nope because they want government approval. And the government needs Bitcoin's cooperation to tax the hell out of owners.

If the government requests, say, 30% of capital gains, then by the very mechanism of taxation, people will need to liquidate their BTCs to pay the government. So they create a destructive loop for the price of BTC where people need to cash it all the time, pressuring the price downwards. They can't do that with an anonymous coin that they can't control.

[mmitech]

[big chart showing that bastard, Litecoin, as bigger than Bitcoin]

This chart is banned from my thread from now on.

Great. I agree with your point that Litecoin trading volume is surprisingly high.

Interesting that by far the largest bubble on the current chart shows the LTC/CNY pair from OKCoin, but there is no data reported for the BTC/CNY pair. In contrast, BTC China shows over twice as much volume for the BTC/CNY pair than for the LTC/CNY pair.

I have to say that I:
a) Don't believe for a second that LTC volume is that high, 179kBTC per day vs. 22kBTC of BTC
b) Believe that if LTC is traded against BTC, the volume should count towards both of the currencies and not LTC alone because it is smaller (especially because in your chart it is BIGGER in which case BTC should receive all the volume  )

cant handle the truth so lets ban it ? Banning things will make people insist, especially if you don't prove your point, it is a reverse psychology , but never mind, a debate becomes impossible when the involved parties take the fanatic path, I  cant see what are the benefits from sharing our point of views here when you have the privileges to ban anything you don't like/agree with instead of debating the possibility of it being wrong with some common sense.

therefore, I ban my self from posting in this thread, no hard feelings

[hdbuck]

[big chart showing that bastard, Litecoin, as bigger than Bitcoin]

This chart is banned from my thread from now on.

Great. I agree with your point that Litecoin trading volume is surprisingly high.

Interesting that by far the largest bubble on the current chart shows the LTC/CNY pair from OKCoin, but there is no data reported for the BTC/CNY pair. In contrast, BTC China shows over twice as much volume for the BTC/CNY pair than for the LTC/CNY pair.

I have to say that I:
a) Don't believe for a second that LTC volume is that high, 179kBTC per day vs. 22kBTC of BTC
b) Believe that if LTC is traded against BTC, the volume should count towards both of the currencies and not LTC alone because it is smaller (especially because in your chart it is BIGGER in which case BTC should receive all the volume   )

thats true. there seem to be some misconception in those charts. nothing fanatic about, pure logic fallacy tho. but thats why we mostly use charts: to legitimate our BS uh?! ^^

[Carlton Banks]

I don't find Litecoin higher trading volume a very convincing argument in it's favour. Such a large proportion of the overall supply being traded is indicating just how speculative the value proposition is, especially for a network that has real utility and acceptance that is so many times lower than bitcoin. Don't get me started on the spurious design differences. A competitive altcoin design is possible, but I don't believe litecoin is it.

[2017orso]

rpietila looks like we're somewhere in the realm you described little while back.

~$400 and ppl still looking to double their coins and expecting ~$200

[aminorex]

thats true. there seem to be some misconception in those charts. nothing fanatic about, pure logic fallacy tho. but thats why we mostly use charts: to legitimate our BS uh?! ^^

Ummm... no.

[aminorex]

cant handle the truth so lets ban it ?

I suspect the motivation was more along the lines of being weary of  a pernicious deceit.  The abruptness made it feel more arbitrary than it really was.

[MahaRamana]

I don't find Litecoin higher trading volume a very convincing argument in it's favour. Such a large proportion of the overall supply being traded is indicating just how speculative the value proposition is, especially for a network that has real utility and acceptance that is so many times lower than bitcoin. Don't get me started on the spurious design differences. A competitive altcoin design is possible, but I don't believe litecoin is it.

Right, I don't think we've seen anything interesting so far on the altcoin scene. As someone put it, it's all a big experiment.
Today, they offer about no interest in comparison with Bitcoin. I am not concerned/interested about the past altcoin scene but rather more with the future.

I agree with the article shared by Risto. Current altcoins have nothing much for them at all. The main reason I see is that the entities who launched them are more or less nothing.

I am much more concerned about altcoins that would be launched in the future by big entities that have power and followers : governments, big corporations, big non-profit organisations. The reason is that I think that they will be able to offer services and functions to the people under their influence  that will not be offered by bitcoin.

I know it might be hard for an independant powerful entity to launch a new crypto because it would be perceived as able to control it somehow for its own interests. But if the entity really plays the crypto game and implement it properly, I don't see why they should not be successful.

Let's take for exemple a giant like Google. I am sure they already have a team working on this, thinking about : how to launch GCoin, what could it bring to the google ecosystem, what advantages a GCoin holder will have to transact in Gcoin as opposed to Bitcoin, they could give the option to pay adsense with GCoin, offer to be paid for Adwords in GCoin, integrate GCoin in Android, in Google Search, Gmail, etc. I mean they have huge power, and if they understand crypto and know how to play the game fairly, they could invest their huge power and network in developing the GCoin.

The question is : why would google choose bitcoin and choose developing its crypto-based services using bitcoin versus doing it for a new GCoin ?
The same question applies to Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, and other internet giants.
I am sure many here have answers...?
If they make a true crypto without any control over it, maybe they don't have any interest to use something else than bitcoin ?

Bitcoiners will say that people will not trust a giant like google. But in practice, most people are sheeps, and it's about transacting, not so much investing. So if there are good services associated with a crypto, and people are using the google or whoever ecosystem, they will tend to do it.

It does not mean Bitcoin will not maintain its function as a crypto reference, store of value, exchange reference. But it reduces bitcoin's potential numbers and probabilities.

I am not trying to push my argument but rather am asking for counter arguments to disprove my point.

[rpietila]

cant handle the truth so lets ban it ?

I suspect the motivation was more along the lines of being weary of  a pernicious deceit.  The abruptness made it feel more arbitrary than it really was.

The chart also appears too big to my eye. As per the rules of the thread, all graphics that is not TA risks deletion. This one hardly is, and it is also misleading for the reason that LTC receives the sole credit of the LTC/BTC trading like I told above.

If someone wants to speak for LTC, how about explaining in detail, where the volume is taking place and is it really so that I can I can trade 10,000s of BTC to litecoin and back, without slippage?

Even if I could, it would only prove that LTC is in symbiosis with BTC, like trading coins against €50 bills - no way in hell should this be credited to LTC, because it is BTC that truly enables the trade. Or silver with gold. Perhaps I'm finally getting that analogy. Damn, the cryptopeople are so much smarter than me.

[MahaRamana]

rpietila looks like we're somewhere in the realm you described little while back.

~$400 and ppl still looking to double their coins and expecting ~$200

If there is no major official announcement in China within one week. I mean a real news, not a rumor. Then I think Risto was right and we'll break back above 500 around next Wednesday.

A new rumor would have little or no effect and could just keep us in same range. But some threatening words from chinese officials before or on 15 April could still create more down action.

[rpietila]

A new rumor would have little or no effect and could just keep us in same range. But some threatening words from chinese officials before or on 15 April could still create more down action.

Don't you think that it is a little bit silly that people sell when they are threatened? Since when have you prospered by doing what they tell you to do? I mean, in any walk of life, like nutrition, or education, or general health?

The title of this episode was: "China is used to scare people to sell at a loss to strong hands, while the US finalizes bitcoin-friendly legislation, paving the way for a mega-move at the instant when the lid is lifted."

[chessnut]

When the officials speak, there is an official opportunity to gamble.
For the quick it's an opportunity to sell high, and for the smart it's an opportunity to buy low.
I wonder if we will be under way before the 15th?
caught between the hammer and the anvil, I don't see how it can rest easy beforehand.

This is where I see we are at. a second capitulation.

[MahaRamana]

A new rumor would have little or no effect and could just keep us in same range. But some threatening words from chinese officials before or on 15 April could still create more down action.

Don't you think that it is a little bit silly that people sell when they are threatened? Since when have you prospered by doing what they tell you to do? I mean, in any walk of life, like nutrition, or education, or general health?

The title of this episode was: "China is used to scare people to sell at a loss to strong hands, while the US finalizes bitcoin-friendly legislation, paving the way for a mega-move at the instant when the lid is lifted."

Exactly. That's why it would be an even better buying opportunity, I would buy more in such scenario. Not sell.

[MahaRamana]

When the officials speak, there is an official opportunity to gamble.
For the quick it's an opportunity to sell high, and for the smart it's an opportunity to buy low.
I wonder if we will be under way before the 15th?
caught between the hammer and the anvil, I don't see how it can rest easy beforehand.

This is where I see we are at. a second capitulation.

What is the duration of these candles

[rpietila]

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume lately hard to say anything, conclusion: can go either way
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $33, slippage to buy: $65, conclusion: potential for quick upside move
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.339 log units. The trendline is at $979 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom
- Sentiment: getting better, which in this case is a positive thing
- Prognosis: 400 is the critical level, if it holds, upside is sure - if it falls, there may be a flash crash to lower levels. The trendline strongly indicates that it will hold and this is a bottom.

[dreamspark]

April 06, 2014 - 12:34:45 PM CEST. 15,532,614.35 USD 6,628.42 BTC 14,216.19 LTC
April 07, 2014 - 10:51:25 AM CEST. 15,574,535.07 USD 7,308.45 BTC 14,250.08 LTC
April 08, 2014 - 03:37:12 PM CEST. 15,480,390.21 USD 8,745.31 BTC 17,164.87 LTC
April 09, 2014 - 01:21:29 PM CEST. 15,510,068.80 USD 8,414.74 BTC 16,979.89 LTC

We have before us the opportunity to forge, for ourselves and for future generations, A MAJOR SHORT SQUEEZE.

I take it that is the Finex lend book? How does that compare to other points in history?