rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[EuroTrash]

Reddit r/Bitcoin has less than 50 new users per day. That used to be over 1000 new ones per day for weeks.
Number of daily transactions is on a two-month downtrend which has fallen below its exponential trend line.
Total USD daily transaction value is also still decreasing, week by week. Scaling that index to the levels of the past (when possibly Gox wasn't already cooking their books and propping the price up) is depressing to say the least.
The volume on exchanges is ridiculous. Closer to when we were at 100$ than to 400.

How could a massive short squeeze be in the making?
What I see is oblivion coming. Either that or a steady painful decline like 2011. Painful to me as I'm almost all in.

[rpietila]

The volume on exchanges is ridiculous. Closer to when we were at 100$ than to 400.

How could a massive short squeeze be in the making?
What I see is oblivion coming. Either that or a steady painful decline like 2011. Painful to me as I'm almost all in.

Both buyers and sellers have thrown in the towel. Which one will pick it up first? To me the answer is obvious (buyers, because the training camp for new buyers has 100,000,000s of people, whereas the potential sellers number at 1M max).

Shorting at this moment is idiocy. I'd say the 50/50 chance is that 409 will never be visited again.

Even manipulators have hardly anything to gain from selling at this point.

If I am "wrong" and it goes down, I benefit massively by being able to purchase 1000s of coins so it's a win-win

[fonzie]

Talking about squeezing one should probably mention the 15,459,966.85 USD swaps too.

[BitChick]

Reddit r/Bitcoin has less than 50 new users per day. That used to be over 1000 new ones per day for weeks.

Bitcointalk had 45800 new members last month though and that was a record so growth is still happening.

I think it does seem like the press spurs new interest and it has been fairly quiet this past week or so. 

[dropt]

I do not agree with these numbers. That there are 100,000,000s does not mean there are 100,000,000s potential buyers for the tomatoes I will grow on my balcony this summer.

Then you're a pretty shitty salesman.

such odds. Wow.

Losing credibility fast.

What's a "manipulators"? It's called trading and some traders do bigger positions than others..  But hey, in #dogecoin you can read things like "OMG THERE IS A 10 BTC WALL TRYING TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE" so opinions vary...

The "manipluators" is a relic from before your time in BTCland.  It's obviously a term coined for those who act in a manner that is illegal in normal market trading.  All the shit that people aren't allowed to do in real markets is done here because there is no regulation.  I find this pretty obvious and your response just goes to show you're being a dick for the sake of being a dick.

You're doing it wrong. If you bought coins at $400 and the price moves to $300 then you could have bought at $300 and you lost $100 per coin. Seriously, you should know this and I am guessing you do and just pretend to be stupid here. I know some people say that if you buy at $500 and the price goes to $250 then you've "lost nothing" if you haven't sold at that price but that's just something stupid poor people who don't even lift say.

So then it's safe to say that I've made hundreds of thousands of dollars even though all of that is still in Bitcoin?  The terms realized losses and gains exist for a reason tough guy.

[dropt]

Reddit r/Bitcoin has less than 50 new users per day. That used to be over 1000 new ones per day for weeks.

Bitcointalk had 45800 new members last month though and that was a record so growth is still happening.

I think it does seem like the press spurs new interest and it has been fairly quiet this past week or so. 

It would be interesting to see how many of those accounts are linked to already existing Bitcointalk members.

[SlipperySlope]

Risto, and others offering an opinion:

I am confident that I can execute a spread of sell orders near the next bubble peak. My tactic is to judge the duration of the price doubling time, and if in my estimation the price is on track to double within the next week then that is a good time to sell. We may get a sort of double peak as in November 2013, and I would sell early accordingly. The buy back, again a spread, would take place some months later, or if there is a 50% retracement from my average sell order. Comments on this tactic would be welcome.

Mainly I am interested in (1) what percentage of my holdings should be traded? (2) I do not trust Coinbase to execute the sale in a timely manner, so I am opening an account at Bitstamp - which I have plenty of time to completely verify. Would it be good practice to leave fiat at Bitstamp between the sell and buy-back? Otherwise I would open a new temporary US banking account to receive the large international wire transfer from Bitstamp. I am afraid that my bank would close my existing personal account upon receiving such a transfer.

I am asking this forum for tactical advice because I do not trust myself in the mania phase of the bubble, and would risk too much. I can afford to lose everything, yet at $5000 or more per bitcoin expected at the next bubble peak - everything in my case would be a large sum.

 

[rpietila]

Shorting at this moment is idiocy. I'd say the 50/50 chance is that 409 will never be visited again.

such odds. Wow.

I am about to make this a permanent feature so that you can marvel/laugh. The upper limit (50/50 that X will never be breached) is harder to determine though. I would currently say it is in high 4-figures, how about you?

If I am "wrong" and it goes down, I benefit massively by being able to purchase 1000s of coins so it's a win-win

You're doing it wrong. If you bought coins at $400 and the price moves to $300 then you could have bought at $300 and you lost $100 per coin. Seriously, you should know this and I am guessing you do and just pretend to be stupid here. I know some people say that if you buy at $500 and the price goes to $250 then you've "lost nothing" if you haven't sold at that price but that's just something stupid poor people who don't even lift say.

My thinking goes that I benefit every time I make a trade. (If I don't benefit, I don't trade so this is kind of obvious). Currently I am not trading, because I bought my heart's content of bitcoins at 448 in 2014-2-25. Now the price is not any better. But if it goes to 200, I want to rebalance my portfolio and invest massively, which is a massive gain.

So I gain when the purchasing power of my portfolio goes up. But I also gain with every trade, because that means there is, in my opinion, an opportunity to make it go up even faster. (Actually it is the utility function, not raw purchasing power but you get the point.)

[rpietila]

Risto, and others offering an opinion:

I am confident that I can execute a spread of sell orders near the next bubble peak. My tactic is to judge the duration of the price doubling time, and if in my estimation the price is on track to double within the next week then that is a good time to sell. We may get a sort of double peak as in November 2013, and I would sell early accordingly. The buy back, again a spread, would take place some months later, or if there is a 50% retracement from my average sell order. Comments on this tactic would be welcome.

Mainly I am interested in (1) what percentage of my holdings should be traded? (2) I do not trust Coinbase to execute the sale in a timely manner, so I am opening an account at Bitstamp - which I have plenty of time to completely verify. Would it be good practice to leave fiat at Bitstamp between the sell and buy-back? Otherwise I would open a new temporary US banking account to receive the large international wire transfer from Bitstamp. I am afraid that my bank would close my existing personal account upon receiving such a transfer.

I am asking this forum for tactical advice because I do not trust myself in the mania phase of the bubble, and would risk too much. I can afford to lose everything, yet at $5000 or more per bitcoin expected at the next bubble peak - everything in my case would be a large sum.

- The final ascent is indeed 100%/week as you can determine from the previous bubbles.
- I sold early in Nov-13 because I judged the final ascent from China prices that had diverged then
- Buyback better judged from exponential trendline. My personal calculation from Dec-13 was that I would be able to buy at 410 before the end of Mar-14. I panic bought a portion way too early. Forum pressure was immense.
- I think 1/3 is the prudent trading amount, perhaps 40% if you include SSS permanently sold coins
- Bitstamp has worked well for me because they know me from the forum and I am open to all KYC, essentially a public person
- They also sent 7-figure amount and my bank did not close the acct, only asked AML
- Keeping fiat/BTC in any exchange for 3 months is risky, I would repatriate some instantly and then wire back when needed, but this depends on many things.

[SlipperySlope]

Risto, and others offering an opinion:

I am confident that I can execute a spread of sell orders near the next bubble peak. My tactic is to judge the duration of the price doubling time, and if in my estimation the price is on track to double within the next week then that is a good time to sell. We may get a sort of double peak as in November 2013, and I would sell early accordingly. The buy back, again a spread, would take place some months later, or if there is a 50% retracement from my average sell order. Comments on this tactic would be welcome.

Mainly I am interested in (1) what percentage of my holdings should be traded? (2) I do not trust Coinbase to execute the sale in a timely manner, so I am opening an account at Bitstamp - which I have plenty of time to completely verify. Would it be good practice to leave fiat at Bitstamp between the sell and buy-back? Otherwise I would open a new temporary US banking account to receive the large international wire transfer from Bitstamp. I am afraid that my bank would close my existing personal account upon receiving such a transfer.

I am asking this forum for tactical advice because I do not trust myself in the mania phase of the bubble, and would risk too much. I can afford to lose everything, yet at $5000 or more per bitcoin expected at the next bubble peak - everything in my case would be a large sum.

- The final ascent is indeed 100%/week as you can determine from the previous bubbles.
- I sold early in Nov-13 because I judged the final ascent from China prices that had diverged then
- Buyback better judged from exponential trendline. My personal calculation from Dec-13 was that I would be able to buy at 410 before the end of Mar-14. I panic bought a portion way too early. Forum pressure was immense.
- I think 1/3 is the prudent trading amount, perhaps 40% if you include SSS permanently sold coins
- Bitstamp has worked well for me because they know me from the forum and I am open to all KYC, essentially a public person
- They also sent 7-figure amount and my bank did not close the acct, only asked AML
- Keeping fiat/BTC in any exchange for 3 months is risky, I would repatriate some instantly and then wire back when needed, but this depends on many things.

Thanks for an informative and entirely satisfying response.

I will examine the fiat withdrawal limits at Bitstamp.

[darlidada]

Hello !

I'm browsing all your posts and I saw this gem of yours:


Perhaps it is helpful if I share that it took me about 5 years of almost full-time study to de-educate myself from the predominant mindset to something I consider a clean mind. I am only now able to start learning anything. I still get irritated by the undescribable evils that the depopulationists force on us in name of "welfare" and whatnot, and the feeble response of the governed, who do not understand anything, like you said.

-----

It really made me think about what I am going through. I had a very complicated childhood and right now I'm slowly fighting off my 2nd depression. I've been meds free for 1 year. Running and lifting weights for 6 months now. As my body is less and less an obstacle to day to day stuff, I feel more and more obligated to take care of my mind. Reading and learning math are helping me a lot. But I am still far from the person I wanna be.

Would you mind sharing a bit more about what you've studied and how you de educated yourself and why you decided to do it. How come you say, just now you are able to learn anything ? Feel free to make a very big post about that issue !

[bitcoinsrus]

Hello !

I'm browsing all your posts and I saw this gem of yours:


Perhaps it is helpful if I share that it took me about 5 years of almost full-time study to de-educate myself from the predominant mindset to something I consider a clean mind. I am only now able to start learning anything. I still get irritated by the undescribable evils that the depopulationists force on us in name of "welfare" and whatnot, and the feeble response of the governed, who do not understand anything, like you said.

-----

It really made me think about what I am going through. I had a very complicated childhood and right now I'm slowly fighting off my 2nd depression. I've been meds free for 1 year. Running and lifting weights for 6 months now. As my body is less and less an obstacle to day to day stuff, I feel more and more obligated to take care of my mind. Reading and learning math are helping me a lot. But I am still far from the person I wanna be.

Would you mind sharing a bit more about what you've studied and how you de educated yourself and why you decided to do it. How come you say, just now you are able to learn anything ? Feel free to make a very big post about that issue !

This site is very helpful for info.  I look through many posts per hour.  Check the internet as well....coindesk, charts etc.

[kdrop22]

Hello !

I'm browsing all your posts and I saw this gem of yours:


Perhaps it is helpful if I share that it took me about 5 years of almost full-time study to de-educate myself from the predominant mindset to something I consider a clean mind. I am only now able to start learning anything. I still get irritated by the undescribable evils that the depopulationists force on us in name of "welfare" and whatnot, and the feeble response of the governed, who do not understand anything, like you said.

-----

It really made me think about what I am going through. I had a very complicated childhood and right now I'm slowly fighting off my 2nd depression. I've been meds free for 1 year. Running and lifting weights for 6 months now. As my body is less and less an obstacle to day to day stuff, I feel more and more obligated to take care of my mind. Reading and learning math are helping me a lot. But I am still far from the person I wanna be.

Would you mind sharing a bit more about what you've studied and how you de educated yourself and why you decided to do it. How come you say, just now you are able to learn anything ? Feel free to make a very big post about that issue !

This site is very helpful for info.  I look through many posts per hour.  Check the internet as well....coindesk, charts etc.

However, as always invest only what you can afford to loose.

[pa]

I know this is not TA, but I want to bring to everyone's attention the innovations described here: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/22m063/blockchain_20_let_a_thousand_chains_blossom/

This removes one of the most important threats to Bitcoin, namely, dilution by alt-coins.

[cAPSLOCK]

Right, I don't think we've seen anything interesting so far on the altcoin scene. As someone put it, it's all a big experiment.
Today, they offer about no interest in comparison with Bitcoin. I am not concerned/interested about the past altcoin scene but rather more with the future.

I kinda hate Altcoins...  but Counterparty (XCP) is on the verge of a working trustless distributed exchange.

https://counterwallet.co/

Pretty interesting to me.

[cosmofly]

Right, I don't think we've seen anything interesting so far on the altcoin scene. As someone put it, it's all a big experiment.
Today, they offer about no interest in comparison with Bitcoin. I am not concerned/interested about the past altcoin scene but rather more with the future.

I kinda hate Altcoins...  but Counterparty (XCP) is on the verge of a working trustless distributed exchange.

https://counterwallet.co/

Pretty interesting to me.

Bit shares is doing it better, I would look into bitshares

[bitfair]

Sorry for interrupting the off-topic discussion. No offence, but the TA in this thread ain't what it used to be.

Here's some price forecasts for the next 90/180/365 days you might find interesting:




The charts were made by simulating 50k paths on the log returns based on the historical distribution of log returns. The shaded areas represent percentiles (dark blue for 25-75 and light blue for 10-90), the lines represent the mean and the median.

Notable features:

• Only 10% chance of hitting $1200/previous ATH before June 2014
• 50% chance of hitting $1200 by October 2014
• The probability distribution is massively skewed to the upside: e.g. 10% chance of being lower than current price (~$440) in December 2014 and 10% chance of being higher than $8000
• The uncertainty is huge, i.e. the shaded areas are large

How is that for a forecast, eh?

[SlipperySlope]

The charts were made by simulating 50k paths on the log returns based on the historical distribution of log returns. The shaded areas represent percentiles (dark blue for 25-75 and light blue for 10-90), the lines represent the mean and the median.

Very interesting.

I suppose that when you say the historical distribution of log returns, you mean without regard to phase of the bubble cycle. Right?

If that is what you did, then perhaps by analyzing each of the previous bubbles you could obtain 10 deciles by partitioning each bubble. Then you could run ten times your existing simulation on each of the 10 decile's distribution.

My own projection of future bitcoin price possibilities heavily depends upon guessing where we are in the bubble cycle. Because I think we are near a bottom, I expect much higher prices this summer as a result.

I can think of a complication or two fitting the deciles, so if that is something that you have no interest in doing, then I have the data to perform a stochastic monte carlo simulation myself.

[aminorex]

Nice. Another refinement might be to take a vol trend line and scale log returns accordingly.

[cAPSLOCK]

Right, I don't think we've seen anything interesting so far on the altcoin scene. As someone put it, it's all a big experiment.
Today, they offer about no interest in comparison with Bitcoin. I am not concerned/interested about the past altcoin scene but rather more with the future.

I kinda hate Altcoins...  but Counterparty (XCP) is on the verge of a working trustless distributed exchange.

https://counterwallet.co/

Pretty interesting to me.

Bit shares is doing it better, I would look into bitshares

The only alts I own are Protoshares, Litecoin, XCP and DOGE.

Bitshares are talking about trustees.  Haven't seen this idea since solidcoin.  I've almost sold my protoshares.