rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

So... was that the floor? Or are we going to go back and retest the 340s again?

2011 we had a double bottom 4 weeks apart.

I don't believe we can be such epic anymore, due to the emergence of professional investors. But you never know..

Imagine it - after this bloodbath, we rise to $600, and then decline to $330 in MAY, even lower than today. Surely Bitcoin is doomed!

(Last time it was not, rather we saw a rise from $2 to $266 without significant declines, this time it would translate $330->$44,000 by the end of 2015).

Bitcoin price behaves in log-scale, which means that for every 1-point move down, you lose only 90% of your money, but every 1-point move up, you gain 900%. Therefore, it is rational to be long if you can derive more benefit from multiplying your wealth than you suffer from losing the invested part of it.

[dnaleor]

Woke up, missed all the cheap coins.  

Use a bot

or use a price alarm... I bearly slept this night

Managed to buy back my coins with a little profit

[Guinpen]

or use a price alarm... I bearly slept this night

Managed to buy back my coins with a little profit

Any good price alarm you can recommend? Thanks.

[Broseph Stalin]

or use a price alarm... I bearly slept this night

Managed to buy back my coins with a little profit

Any good price alarm you can recommend? Thanks.

I personally use Bitcoinium for Android. Check the play store.

[Hen0xyd]

or use a price alarm... I bearly slept this night

Managed to buy back my coins with a little profit

Any good price alarm you can recommend? Thanks.

I personally use Bitcoinium for Android. Check the play store.

Also using Bitcoinium, it provides nice widgets and alarms. The best free app for this use IMO, but maybe some paid app are better.

[fonsie]

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mobnetic.coinguardian

[Guinpen]

Thanks. Too bad I'm stuck on iOS for the time being, so I'll have to find something.

[urwhatuknow]

Woke up, missed all the cheap coins.  

Use a bot

No, the problem was I boycott all the exchanges until there is one who let me trade without giving them my money and fiat. Otherwise I would have used a spread of buys ofc.

Hold on for a few more days, we are working on an idea that will solve your problem....

Have a nice day

[doctor877]

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

[Kramerc]

The longer and fiercer this downtrend is, and the more suffering we have to endure over the next period of time, the more glorious will the next uptrend be for those of us that try to understand bitcoin. Fuck the moon, that's underachieving in a nutshell.

I have a simple method to fight the urge to sell. I keep buying.

[_ajv_]

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

Seems so. If we break 420 today, it's quite probable that the bear trend is over and the very bottom was @ 339,79. Just slightly lower than my abp!

However, if 420 is not broken today, the bear trend may continue for quite some time, as there seems not to be shortage of sellers. Gosh I wish I had more spare fiat to buy moar.

Basis for my TA:

https://i.imgur.com/K0LXMNB.png

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/images/technicalanalysis/HeadShouldersReverseER2.gif

[rudius]

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

I agree this seems too good to be true. But looking at the volume, this is not fake. People have bought the dips (china again)

[Carra23]

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

Very likely. Its good for my scalp too.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand the general concept of an efficient market.

[doctor877]

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

[doctor877]

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

Seems so. If we break 420 today, it's quite probable that the bear trend is over and the very bottom was @ 339,79. Just slightly lower than my abp!

However, if 420 is not broken today, the bear trend may continue for quite some time, as there seems not to be shortage of sellers. Gosh I wish I had more spare fiat to buy moar.

Basis for my TA:

Looks like 420 was breached @ bitstamp.

[podyx]

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

I see it as an far fetched presumption, because the price was at 450 for about 4 days till this drop occurred. In all honesty, I have no idea on what will be the proper bottom, I don't think that anyone can currently know this. But I know that it will be more clear when this period of extreme volatility will be over, that is caused by the process of money moving from China to the western exhanges. Until then, it's a blind gamble. You can also win by blindly gambling and some people like to play this way, I just don't.

[doctor877]

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

I see it as an far fetched presumption, because the price was at 450 for about 4 days till this drop occurred. In all honesty, I have no idea on what will be the proper bottom, I don't think that anyone can currently know this. But I know that it will be more clear when this period of extreme volatility will be over, that is caused by the process of money moving from China to the western exhanges. Until then, it's a blind gamble. You can also win by blindly gambling and some people like to play this way, I just don't.

If you understand bitcoins abitility and its potential in long term, IMO it's riskier to be shorting now than just hodling.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

I see it as an far fetched presumption, because the price was at 450 for about 4 days till this drop occurred. In all honesty, I have no idea on what will be the proper bottom, I don't think that anyone can currently know this. But I know that it will be more clear when this period of extreme volatility will be over, that is caused by the process of money moving from China to the western exhanges. Until then, it's a blind gamble. You can also win by blindly gambling and some people like to play this way, I just don't.

If you understand bitcoins abitility and its potential in long term, IMO it's riskier to be shorting now than just hodling.

Let's just say that I saw more long-term potential, when I was only familiar with the hype surrounding bitcoin. When I studied the technical aspects in-depth and thought on how will it fit into the picture of modern finance and trade, then I didn't see so much long term potential. The idea has a lot of potential, but bitcoin itself doesn't have potential to be a quality currency. The maximum potential is to enter the cash transfer service, but this will only happen if major developments will be made in the bitcoin market system. The current level of security, that the market system can offer, isn't just enough to gain the trust that is needed.