HBN Investment Journal - 2% returns every ten days - 90,000+ HBN Porfolio

[tokyoghetto]

Well since we are in the "lull" phase of the staking process, I decided to throw my trader cap on and give a quick analysis on todays Hobonickel action.

Today we saw some big blocks being bought as the price pushed pass 10000 satoshis.



There was a single 10,000+ HBN block trade done at 10020 satoshis. I am not able to screencap that exact buy, but I did see it go off live as I was "working" at my day job. So now we have bots battling it out around the 10000 mark and a wide spread on the orderbook. Who knows how long this will go on for, but my observation tells me that HBN is ready to breakout of this 7000-10000 trading range. Below is chart of HBN covering the last 30 days.



Although in my honest opinion I believe technical analysis to be voodoo magic, you can still get a feel for what the market is doing just by observing the charts. I see that we bounced off support around 4000-5000 satoshis about 4 times and that around the 10000 satoshi mark is when the market gets wild and volatile. 12000 satoshi seems like the test mark. This is where most buyers become exhausted and the market is unable to support the new price. 10000 satoshis and 12000 satoshis will be my markers for the short-term future, depending on how HBN continues to react around this points will dictate how I respond in regards to this journal.

For now I am hodling.  

[Ardolafat]

Hobo's are great, got over 10%  PoSes for last month, holding them   

[JTeam]

tokyoghetto - you have got to stop!   
I think your journal here is the reason for the interest. Before, there were plenty of us willing to mine this beauty beneath the radar thanks to the attention being on all of the other coins - DOGE, I'm looking at you.

Now - people are in it. Which is good and bad. Good - the price goes up. Bad - my friends and I wish we had gotten in sooner and had more in our wallets. 

Of course, we believe in HBN and support it by having a pool. Shameless, plug.
hbn.jtcpools.org
PPLNS - 1% fee - goes to charity - safe drinking water and disaster relief. 

[presstab]

The diff has doubled since the spike. On it's surface this is a positive thing I think, new miners, new interest, new demand. https://i.imgur.com/OQBNrRB.jpg

[r0ach]

Four questions:

1)  Some people are reading these posts thinking proof of stake is some crazy, amazing thing now, but there's a few issues.  The coin you were working with was in a low market cap, utilizing a coin many people probably thought was abandoned.  This, as you alluded to, made it so the minting model on the coin seemed to work exceptionally well at the start, and the mere creation of this single thread caused an already noticeable drop in efficiency?

2)  Can this test be redone again to see how much capital is needed to live off beef jerky acquired solely from the stake now that the market forces have normalized on stake difficulty?

3)  Was this a front running/dump campaign?

4)  Will the market even accept coins in the long term where people can arbitrarily set crazy interest rates that may or may not be used depending on how liquid people wish to keep their money?  A corporation could just corner the market on some stake coin years from now, require you to pay for their services in AT&T coins, then payoff whoever is running the thing to issue an "emergency maintenance" fork to raise interest rates higher.  The idea of these stake coins existing in that context is absurd and wide open for abuse, while PoW is not.  As time goes by, I think more people are going to see these proof of stake coins don't pass the Occam's Razor test, and that you cant just let some random guy off the street design weapons of financial terrorism.

[JTeam]

Four questions:

1)  Some people are reading these posts thinking proof of stake is some crazy, amazing thing now, but there's a few issues.  The coin you were working with was in a low market cap, utilizing a coin many people probably thought was abandoned.  This, as you alluded to, made it so the minting model on the coin seemed to work exceptionally well at the start, and the mere creation of this single thread caused an already noticeable drop in efficiency?

2)  Can this test be redone again to see how much capital is needed to live off beef jerky acquired solely from the stake now that the market forces have normalized on stake difficulty?

3)  Was this a front running/dump campaign?

4)  Will the market even accept coins in the long term where people can arbitrarily set crazy interest rates that may or may not be used depending on how liquid people wish to keep their money?  A corporation could just corner the market on some stake coin years from now, require you to pay for their services in AT&T coins, then payoff whoever is running the thing to issue an "emergency maintenance" fork to raise interest rates higher.  The idea of these stake coins existing in that context is absurd and wide open for abuse, while PoW is not.  As time goes by, I think more people are going to see these proof of stake coins don't pass the Occam's Razor test, and that you cant just let some random guy off the street design weapons of financial terrorism.

+1 this - All good questions. I have always wondered if the market cap can support long term "investors." I may invest now, but who will buy my coin later.

That said - we're still in. We like the coin because the dev is active - and there is interest - like this post. 

[hvezdasmrti]

Yes, passive income...

Dudes, do you realize that this scheme works only if the support will grow up? When nobody will buy your coins, your 2 percent incomes are worthless because the coin will get highly inflationary. Just someone needed to dump his HBNs. + mind the stupid name of this coin.

Rename the thread to "HBN pump topic"

[cryptmebro]

Yes, passive income...

Dudes, do you realize that this scheme works only if the support will grow up? When nobody will buy your coins, your 2 percent incomes are worthless because the coin will get highly inflationary. Just someone needed to dump his HBNs. + mind the stupid name of this coin.

Rename the thread to "HBN pump topic"

You do realise this coin is difficult to PoW mine even at a low difficulty?

[MarketNeutral]

It was only a matter of time before HBN's rapid PoS and strong dev support became well known.

Keep up the fascinating thread, tokyoghetto. It's a very enjoyable read.

Good movie in the OP, too! 

[tokyoghetto]

Four questions:

1)  Some people are reading these posts thinking proof of stake is some crazy, amazing thing now, but there's a few issues.  The coin you were working with was in a low market cap, utilizing a coin many people probably thought was abandoned.  This, as you alluded to, made it so the minting model on the coin seemed to work exceptionally well at the start, and the mere creation of this single thread caused an already noticeable drop in efficiency?

2)  Can this test be redone again to see how much capital is needed to live off beef jerky acquired solely from the stake now that the market forces have normalized on stake difficulty?

3)  Was this a front running/dump campaign?

4)  Will the market even accept coins in the long term where people can arbitrarily set crazy interest rates that may or may not be used depending on how liquid people wish to keep their money?  A corporation could just corner the market on some stake coin years from now, require you to pay for their services in AT&T coins, then payoff whoever is running the thing to issue an "emergency maintenance" fork to raise interest rates higher.  The idea of these stake coins existing in that context is absurd and wide open for abuse, while PoW is not.  As time goes by, I think more people are going to see these proof of stake coins don't pass the Occam's Razor test, and that you cant just let some random guy off the street design weapons of financial terrorism.

I will try to answer some of your questions.

2) The test can be done again, but future results vary. Although HBN is designed to give 100% interest annually, the network will reduce the returns if the diff is too low. So it may be that in a calender year, I might only get 80%, 50%, or even 30% returns through PoS mining.

3) No it is not a front running/pump/dump scheme. I started this journal for a few reasons. They include to maintain discipline, be accountable and learn from my mistakes. I came to learn about HBN through the work that Tranz did in helping ADT. Once I did my research, I was convinced that HBN would be a good investment.

Prior to me starting my journal, I held zero HBN.

4) PoS can be used as a financial weapon. If you look at HBN from another angle, its pretty much a High-Yield Investment Program. The best thing about it is that the parameters set at launch determine the supply and the market determines the price. You don't need new investors to pay out old investors, this is how ponzi schemes work. HBN pays you out through PoS mining to secure the network. The difference though, is that HBN is capped at 100 million coins, which will take years for us to hit. Also, as the amount of coins grows, this introduces liquidity into the market from people wanting to cash out. This also brings in buyers who want to mimic what previous sellers have done, which is buy the coin, stake profits and then exit the trade. its a steady cycle which should ensure HBN experiences steady growth for years to come. I am pretty sure the demand for HBN will be there.

If Goldman Sachs came out today and announced a Scrypt-based "digital bond" paying out 100% annually, they would create a billion dollar market overnight. You would get every heavy hitter dumping money into that bond just for a chance to double up.

[tokyoghetto]

Yes, passive income...

Dudes, do you realize that this scheme works only if the support will grow up? When nobody will buy your coins, your 2 percent incomes are worthless because the coin will get highly inflationary. Just someone needed to dump his HBNs. + mind the stupid name of this coin.

Rename the thread to "HBN pump topic"

You do realise this coin is difficult to PoW mine even at a low difficulty?

+1. I have observed that I generally get anywhere from 10%-15% less coins than estimated on HBN when PoW mining. Its not as frustrating as trying to PoW PHS. Eventually PoS mining will take over PoW mining on HBN.

[tokyoghetto]

It was only a matter of time before HBN's rapid PoS and strong dev support became well known.

Keep up the fascinating thread, tokyoghetto. It's a very enjoyable read.

Good movie in the OP, too! 

Thank You MarketNeutral. I am glad you are enjoying my journal.

Margin Call is an excellent movie. I recommend everyone to watch it.

[r0ach]

4) PoS can be used as a financial weapon. If you look at HBN from another angle, its pretty much a High-Yield Investment Program.

If Goldman Sachs came out today and announced a Scrypt-based "digital bond" paying out 100% annually, they would create a billion dollar market overnight. You would get every heavy hitter dumping money into that bond just for a chance to double up.

Exactly.  What happens when all tech stocks and real world companies are replaced by nothing but Goldman Sachs, financial vehicle, proof of stake coins?  The world collapses.  This is obviously not a sustainable model.  When government gets involved making Bitcoin laws, they're either going to come down on proof of stake coins hard, or they will have the same relationship how Wall Street currently exists, to enrich insiders and screw over everyone else.

"Interest" is not really something I want to see survive in the Bitcoin protocol's future.  The idea of trying to replicate the current, broken financial system is outrageous.

[unick]

4) PoS can be used as a financial weapon. If you look at HBN from another angle, its pretty much a High-Yield Investment Program.

If Goldman Sachs came out today and announced a Scrypt-based "digital bond" paying out 100% annually, they would create a billion dollar market overnight. You would get every heavy hitter dumping money into that bond just for a chance to double up.

Exactly.  What happens when all tech stocks and real world companies are replaced by nothing but Goldman Sachs, financial vehicle, proof of stake coins?  The world collapses.  This is obviously not a sustainable model.  When government gets involved making Bitcoin laws, they're either going to come down on proof of stake coins hard, or they will have the same relationship how Wall Street currently exists, to enrich insiders and screw over everyone else.

"Interest" is not really something I want to see survive in the Bitcoin protocol's future.  The idea of trying to replicate the current, broken financial system is outrageous.

I obviously don't see how this could be used as a "financial weapon" or even know what a financial weapon looks like. But I think PoS is a more efficient way to mine new coins than GPUs electricity addict and heat producing mechanism.

Plus why is "interest" or yield so bad? I think it has it's use in some markets.  How is deflation any better? today you buy some bread for 1$, and down the road, your bread cost you 50 cents because of deflation.  Wouldn't you want to wait to buy your bread so you could buy 2 instead of 1? How can you have a sustainable business model based on deflation?

Can the "ideal" world, if it exist, be a a mix of both inflationist and deflationist currencies?  I can see an HBN type of currency witch would be used as some sort of "savings" account or whatever the financial term is for that and another more "day to day" currency to buy other types of goods.

Life is complexe and I don't think there is any ONE good solution.  And what is really broken about our financial system is that it is closed and reserved to insiders... but with this new cryptocurrency wave... everything opens up and is accessible to you, me and everyone out there.  And the more we put effort in sharing and building better systems TOGETHER, I REALLY don't see how only "insiders" would benefit from this.  Since the merely concept of insiders can't exist if everything is "open source" and public.

[broken_pixel]

Yes, passive income...

Dudes, do you realize that this scheme works only if the support will grow up? When nobody will buy your coins, your 2 percent incomes are worthless because the coin will get highly inflationary. Just someone needed to dump his HBNs. + mind the stupid name of this coin.

Rename the thread to "HBN pump topic"

The name has historical significance guy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hobo_nickel

[Tranz]

"Interest" is not really something I want to see survive in the Bitcoin protocol's future.  The idea of trying to replicate the current, broken financial system is outrageous.

Its not just "Interest", it is payment for work, not dissimilar to being paid to hash.

You must hold the coins. You must use CPU to stake the coins. You must you use bandwidth to talk to the network. No one will do this for free.

[presstab]

Exactly.  What happens when all tech stocks and real world companies are replaced by nothing but Goldman Sachs, financial vehicle, proof of stake coins?  The world collapses.  This is obviously not a sustainable model.  When government gets involved making Bitcoin laws, they're either going to come down on proof of stake coins hard, or they will have the same relationship how Wall Street currently exists, to enrich insiders and screw over everyone else.

"Interest" is not really something I want to see survive in the Bitcoin protocol's future.  The idea of trying to replicate the current, broken financial system is outrageous.

I don't see any particular reason that a government would decide to regulate PoS/PoW hybrids different than PoW coins or PoS coins. In the end it is the same concept: the blockchain needs to be confirmed by multiple peers to ensure that transactions cannot be duplicated, faked, etc. so in exchange for adding and confirming transactions to the blockchain the miner receives a reward in the given coin.  It really doesn't make a huge conceptual difference if the transaction was confirmed via PoS or PoW, the point is that the miner receives a reward for using their resources to keep the coin running and confirming the blockchain.

[r0ach]

I don't see any particular reason that a government would decide to regulate PoS/PoW hybrids different than PoW coins or PoS coins. In the end it is the same concept: the blockchain needs to be confirmed by multiple peers to ensure that transactions cannot be duplicated, faked, etc. so in exchange for adding and confirming transactions to the blockchain the miner receives a reward in the given coin.  It really doesn't make a huge conceptual difference if the transaction was confirmed via PoS or PoW, the point is that the miner receives a reward for using their resources to keep the coin running and confirming the blockchain.

You can look at it many different ways.  With proof of stake, you're basically encouraged to be a monopoly man and horde capital.  There's a large, financial incentive, with little effort involved.  You're rewarded for being a whale, in other words.  With proof of work, well, just like it sounds, there's a bit of work actually involved in claiming your reward.  You have electricity costs, IT issues, you may even have employees that you pay to help run your operation.  Operating a business sound like "work" to me.

When it comes down to it, you might as well rename proof of stake to "proof of whale", so we can really get a clear picture of what we're dealing with.

Factor in that you're double rewarded for holding a hyper deflationary currency, plus the stake claim at the same time, and there's little reason to ever spend the money.  Double rewarding for *not* spending anything isn't something you actually want in a currency.  Like the guy said, stake coins are "high yield investment programs", and will never be used to buy anything.

[cryptmebro]

I don't see any particular reason that a government would decide to regulate PoS/PoW hybrids different than PoW coins or PoS coins. In the end it is the same concept: the blockchain needs to be confirmed by multiple peers to ensure that transactions cannot be duplicated, faked, etc. so in exchange for adding and confirming transactions to the blockchain the miner receives a reward in the given coin.  It really doesn't make a huge conceptual difference if the transaction was confirmed via PoS or PoW, the point is that the miner receives a reward for using their resources to keep the coin running and confirming the blockchain.

You can look at it many different ways.  With proof of stake, you're basically encouraged to be a monopoly man and horde capital.  There's a large, financial incentive, with little effort involved.  You're rewarded for being a whale, in other words.  With proof of work, well, just like it sounds, there's a bit of work actually involved in claiming your reward.  You have electricity costs, IT issues, you may even have employees that you pay to help run your operation.  Operating a business sound like "work" to me.

When it comes down to it, you might as well rename proof of stake to "proof of whale", so we can really get a clear picture of what we're dealing with.

Factor in that you're double rewarded for holding a hyper deflationary currency, plus the stake claim at the same time, and there's little reason to ever spend the money.  Double rewarding for *not* spending anything isn't something you actually want in a currency.  Like the guy said, stake coins are "high yield investment programs", and will never be used to buy anything.

PPC is doing so poorly because of this...

[tokyoghetto]

There is actually quite a bit of effort when it comes to PoS coins. You need to spend time to research, then you need to put up your capital. Then you need to watch the coin, looking for places to enter and exit. I treat this and every investment I hold like a business. Instead of paying employees or buying mining equipment, I make my capital my employee. My money works for me. The stronger my employee, the bigger the return.

People can make millions witha stroke of a pen or make millions through back breaking labour. the end result is the same, both still make money.

You can use HBN to buy anything just like any other coin. Anyone using the coin to buy and sell wont care about PoS. Only long term investors and traders will pay closer attention to the PoS %. Also these investors/traders will need to take profits. You cant buy things with paper profits, eventually you need to make the illusion real.

As far the 100% returns, I see nothing wrong with that. Cryptos are high risk investments. You need to give people an incentive to support a network. I had this problem with ADT. The devs refused to increase the PoS %. I told hem that ADT is too high risk to hold and that 1% doesn't make for the fact that the coin could drop 80%in seconds. Until these markets become more stable and liquid, low PoS % wont attract too many investors.