HBN Investment Journal - 2% returns every ten days - 90,000+ HBN Porfolio

[sunny67]

I'm sort of torn between wishing I had invested a chunk of cash into POS coins like hbn. The thing is so many coins just end up flopping, I don't really want to end up being a bagholder, and hbn prices are awfully high now. I mined all my HBN so I only have about a thousand.

Now's probably a good time to buy HBN, with the recent price dip.

Staking can really accelerate when it compounds, so the sooner you buy and hodl the better.

Disclosure: I hold a HBN position and am nibbling at these prices.

I'm thrilled that prices dipped a bit, now I'm getting more from my hashcows mining efforts again. For a couple days there I was getting way less due to skyrocketing price + multipool mining kind of sucking lately.

I always buy the dip with HBN.

Do you think now is the lowest point in the dip?

[presstab]

Do you think now is the lowest point in the dip?

I will usually put in 10 or so orders at once. Something like 25 HBN at a price close to the current top bid and then add more orders in increments of 250 satoshis. I just add liquidity to the buy side so that it automatically buys the dip.  Works pretty well.

[tokyoghetto]

tokyoghetto, I just read the whole thread (well, mostly only your posts because it would have too long for me at 6 AM). As a core member of the Mintcoin team, I appreciated your reading on it. I also appreciated what I read about Blackcoin and HoboNickels and Tekcoin, about the importance of the dev behind the coin (I knew it already but you confirmed my feeling).

I must confess I did not understand all you wrote; part of it because of lack of sleep, certainly; part of it because, well, we neverseldom understand someone 100%, right?

I would like to ask one some questions:
1. I've grown defiant of day-trading - this is not for me. What are the alternative if you cannot just take your real-life money and buy coins after coins? You seem to imply that betting on a stable crypto with a heavy interest stake is worth it. So the various strategies I see:
-- day-trading
-- long-term minting
-- pure investment (buying a crypto and hoping for long term growth)
-- mining (not possible for me, too small a flat for rigging, maybe renting for fast PoW but that's all)
-- "venture capitalism" - identifying coin with a future, but at low price and wait
-- any other?
(personally, I am more in a fire-and-forget thing, since I have enough other project to keep me busy, like making sure people live better after 50).

2. Tekcoin has a 160%480% interest rate per year (40% interest for threeper month), so it protects even more against sudden pump and dump than HBN does (I know, it requires you to keep them for three months, so catching the right moment to sell is even harder than with Mintcoin). How would you compare HBN and Tekcoin? Please note I am not that much interested in your final say than in what are the things you will take into consideration, how you mind will work. Hopefully by reading your answerreply, I will be better able to understand what is worth considering.

Thank you again Tokyoghetto for your calm and serene writing style (and content).

1. i can understand your frustration about day trading. I sometimes day trade cryptos, but then I find myself missing sleep, being anti-social and basically having no life. One way you can build up a "set and forget" portfolio would be to use Hobonickels as a financial tool to build up funds, then invest those funds into other dividend producing assets. You still get to keep your initial HBN core position, and sell some PoS mined coins to invest the BTC in other projects. It doesn't have to be limited to coins. You can buy shares for exchanges like Crypsty, buy shares into mining companies like Petamine, or more traditional investments that pay out dividends in BTC like Rental Starter.

full disclosure: I own shares in Cryptsy and Peta-mine. I do not hold a position in RentalStarter

The reason why I believe high interest works with PoS is because the coins are generated by the network algo, not from other investors. If coin developers want to entice investors, you need to provide the investor with a reason why. High interest also offers investors protection against price fluctuations. Most coin devs are good at only that, coin development. they are not marketers (hence all the shitty named coins) and they are not finance or economy majors ( hence coins with shitty characteristics like coin count and interest). That is why diversifying into places where professionals know what the hell they are doing is crucial to a "set and forget" portfolio.

The bigger your portfolio grows, the more time you will have for yourself. 

2. Its hard to compare HBN and TEK, as they are two different asset classes. One big difference is that the higher the interest, the less liquid the asset is, resulting in high volatility. At least in the early stages of the coin. Eventually these coins will lower the interest rate so that it can keep in line with the distribution model. In about a year HBN should lower itself to about 90%, which is still pretty attractive but not as aggressive as 100%. TEK is a beast that should not be taken lightly. Lack of liquidity can make it very difficult to exit large positions, which can result in substantial losses. Trade accordingly.

full disclosure: I own TEKcoins.

[thundertoe]

Looking at some interesting TEK numbers.

blocks : 348792,
moneysupply : 781162

jan 23rd toal tek minted 250k

1 coin per block.. so you can see the the effect of stake minting. I predict some steady swings with TEK as people dump stake lowering price until it triggers buying again and the cycle repeats. Right now TEK is still early in the growth of users phase i would say and not even close to peaked for market acceptance/penetration/marketcap.  Long term i don't know. Check the #'s think about compounding hitting roi etc. check this http://www.csgnetwork.com/interestcomplexsavcalc.html  
12 periods annually.
 
Somebody said hold for 90 days(to hit stake? maybe they mean roi im not sure) with TEK not usually at all lately(to hit the stake), for me more in the low 30 days range. If the block was very small maybe longer?

yes i hold TEK.

[r0ach]

Since you got burned on Asiacoin and I told you about it lol, I got some information for you.  

[presstab]

Wow good deals on hbn right now

[dogechode]

Wow good deals on hbn right now

Glad I didn't buy at the peak. Getting better results on HashCows now that the crazy spike in price has subsided a bit.

[David Latapie]

1. i can understand your frustration about day trading. I sometimes day trade cryptos, but then I find myself missing sleep, being anti-social and basically having no life. One way you can build up a "set and forget" portfolio would be to use Hobonickels as a financial tool to build up funds, then invest those funds into other dividend producing assets. You still get to keep your initial HBN core position, and sell some PoS mined coins to invest the BTC in other projects. It doesn't have to be limited to coins. You can buy shares for exchanges like Crypsty, buy shares into mining companies like Petamine, or more traditional investments that pay out dividends in BTC like Rental Starter.

full disclosure: I own shares in Cryptsy and Peta-mine. I do not hold a position in RentalStarter

The reason why I believe high interest works with PoS is because the coins are generated by the network algo, not from other investors. If coin developers want to entice investors, you need to provide the investor with a reason why. High interest also offers investors protection against price fluctuations. Most coin devs are good at only that, coin development. they are not marketers (hence all the shitty named coins) and they are not finance or economy majors ( hence coins with shitty characteristics like coin count and interest). That is why diversifying into places where professionals know what the hell they are doing is crucial to a "set and forget" portfolio.

The bigger your portfolio grows, the more time you will have for yourself. 

2. Its hard to compare HBN and TEK, as they are two different asset classes. One big difference is that the higher the interest, the less liquid the asset is, resulting in high volatility. At least in the early stages of the coin. Eventually these coins will lower the interest rate so that it can keep in line with the distribution model. In about a year HBN should lower itself to about 90%, which is still pretty attractive but not as aggressive as 100%. TEK is a beast that should not be taken lightly. Lack of liquidity can make it very difficult to exit large positions, which can result in substantial losses. Trade accordingly.

full disclosure: I own TEKcoins.

Thank you tokyoghetto. As usual, your answer is even more interesting than I expected. So, mining companies are worth it? Have to check this. I did know this correlation between interest rate and liquidity. But with such a huge interest, for me price fluctuation is basically a non issue if you in for the long term - and TEKcoin, with a 30 days minting process, is definitely for long term.

[Ense04]

Major correction for HBN this week. Hate to see how far this will fall before leveling out.

[David Latapie]

I should have ask the question about TEKcoin privately. Now the price as skyrocketed, no way I can buy any at this price. If it continues, it will soon be as expensive as monero. Too bad, I really like the concept (peace of mind) but at such a price, it is a steal.

Maybe the price will go down. But since I heard the interest rate of TEKcoin will fall too, I getting dubious.

That was too good to be true :/

Fortunately, HBN is getting low in price, time to buy, I guess (although it is still more expensive than before the bubble).

[Jamesco]

Major correction for HBN this week. Hate to see how far this will fall before leveling out.

I think the dip in price and expected new bottom is a reflex of people's considered expectations and trust in hobonickels as well as a small offload by people who think they got caught in the rise.

People have been reading this blog for a while, a lot of people who get burned in the alt coin market. There is a strong negative sentiment(frustration, hopelessness ect) in this alt-coin market, in which investors have been burned so many times. HBN and this blog created a seemingly antidote to this. The idea of consistent 2% returns mixed with slow but sure upwards trend/growth is exactly the antidote people want in a market which either directly scams peoples money or multiplies it several times before eventually stripping them of it.

The reflex in expectation and trust I mentioned earlier relates to HBN's recent spike in price. At first glance HBN holders assumed this price was just part of the endless upward trend of HBN. A closer look and people realized it was an organized pump, search the forum for the thread. It originally went unnoticed but my assumption is the second attempt at the HBN pump meant more people become aware these prices were manipulated and also that Tokyoghetto somehow has connections with gaining information from these guys. To be clear Tokyoghetto was a complete spectator in this(I think), but it was unexpected to see any connection of this sort which I believe created the reflex we a now seeing in the market.

This didn't seem like it got much talk in the three HBN threads but I think a few people realised this and now people are not only readjusted the value but a few are exited their positions.

Just for full disclosure, I hold a decent stake in Hobonickels(top 20) and have not sold for some peroid now. Tranz and the community really do add stable long term value, I think we need to talk about the upswings and downswings well, which should also have the contributing effect of adding more integrity to the community as well.

[unick]

It's expected that prices move in both directions.  It doesn't change anything for me, since I'm in for the long run!  I still believe Tranz is doing great work with constant new releases of code.  And the community here is one of the best I know so far.  People here are more mature and I like that.

It still is a big correction! I hope the people that got in at a higher price point were long term investors, if so this price drop won't affect them as much.

The upside is that new investors can now find a cheaper entry point. the rich list top 10 addresses didn't move much so I guess that the "big" investors are still holding for long term returns.

 People might be looking for an "antidote".  The harsh reality is that there is none!  Like with anything and everything, for things to go up in value (without any pump/dump actions) is through consistent work and dedication.  Innovation is also a key factor to adding value. I believe this is achievable with HBN. Since the people involved tend to be in for the long term and consistent work factors.  Innovation comes once in a while!

One last thing,

A closer look and people realized it was an organized pump, search the forum for the thread.

I can't find that thread.  Why I feel people always try to find conspiracy theories?  Can't you be objective about the actual work and progress going on with HBN? Couldn't that be the main reason of it increasing price value? couldn't just be people looking to cash out for other projects that sold their position for personal reasons making the price go down? maybe it wasn't moving fast enough for them.  Why does it have to be an organized pump with objective to scam people of?

I'm sure I contributed to the pump myself... I can assure I'm in no "organized" group trying to scam people off! Pumps are exciting and dumps are depressing in nature... and contagious! Maybe that's all we are seeing here!

Until I can find that thread and assuming it's not just that, conspiracy, I will continue to stand by what I just said, since I know Tranz (the dev) is real and the work done is real... the rest is just speculations!

[r0ach]

The reflex in expectation and trust I mentioned earlier relates to HBN's recent spike in price.

This is completely wrong dude.  HBN got pumped to create a bull trap, even Tokyoghetto will tell you that.

When you're holding a coin and it magically triples in price overnight, it's because a whale decided the price should be higher.

Tranz is a good dev though.

[rgm108]

The reflex in expectation and trust I mentioned earlier relates to HBN's recent spike in price.

This is completely wrong dude.  HBN got pumped to create a bull trap, even Tokyoghetto will tell you that.

When you're holding a coin and it magically triples in price overnight, it's because a whale decided the price should be higher.

Tranz is a good dev though.

+1

I was there for the initial pump 2 weeks ago and then last week again. (Although last week was a bit of a fail.)
I'm just guessing here but it seems like people are dumping some HBN to get into TEK.

Time will tell if this was the right choice. I did buy some TEK at 25K but I did not sell any HBN to get them. My stake is too precious....

[JeffK]

The reflex in expectation and trust I mentioned earlier relates to HBN's recent spike in price.

This is completely wrong dude.  HBN got pumped to create a bull trap, even Tokyoghetto will tell you that.

When you're holding a coin and it magically triples in price overnight, it's because a whale decided the price should be higher.

Tranz is a good dev though.

Bought at 10000 sold at 50000. I guess I was lucky with the pumps. Waiting for the price to drop a little before buying again.

[unick]

I'm just guessing here but it seems like people are dumping some HBN to get into TEK.

Time will tell if this was the right choice. I did buy some TEK at 25K but I did not sell any HBN to get them. My stake is too precious....

I had that same feeling... HBN goes down, TEK goes up, maybe just a coincidence though

[sky110]

I was hoping that HBN would not rise before the BTC/LTC bounceback
Well I will have to suffice in the top 100  Tongue

[David Latapie]

It's expected that prices move in both directions.  It doesn't change anything for me, since I'm in for the long run!  I still believe Tranz is doing great work with constant new releases of code.  And the community here is one of the best I know so far.  People here are more mature and I like that.

True. The worst immaturity level I found was Blackcoin.

I hope the people that got in at a higher price point were long term investors, if so this price drop won't affect them as much.

+1. That's why I am waiting to buy some TEK. I will buy at half the current price, because 22k seems to be the "natural" price for TEK (or even less, I'd love to be able to calculate a median price out of Cryptsy's charts. For HBN, it is harder to tell, the natural price seem to be growing, but I'd say around 20k, so presently it is a bit overvalued (I bought yesterday, at around natural price though).

The upside is that new investors can now find a cheaper entry point. the rich list top 10 addresses didn't move much so I guess that the "big" investors are still holding for long term returns.

Top 10 are usually exchanges.

People might be looking for an "antidote".  The harsh reality is that there is none!  Like with anything and everything, for things to go up in value (without any pump/dump actions) is through consistent work and dedication.  Innovation is also a key factor to adding value. I believe this is achievable with HBN. Since the people involved tend to be in for the long term and consistent work factors.  Innovation comes once in a while!

Question: how come that newer coins get pagination in the hundreds (or thousand, in the case of blackcoin), whilst long-timers with an active (or very active) market like HBN and TEK have only pagination in the ten? TEK is particularly worthy of note: two pages from 2013 to April 2014, then pagination decuples. I am the Mintcoin manager and it has 700+ posts in less than four month (by the way, if you looking for a coin with almost no volatility, MINT is a top contender - not that most holders are happy with that).

A closer look and people realized it was an organized pump, search the forum for the thread.

I can't find that thread.

You are reading it right not It is just that the "organisation" is not usual. This was not a malicious pump (except if we delve into conspirary theory and consider tokyoghetto is the malicious pumper, covering it with seemingly genuine posts, but I don't buy it). It was a "natural" pump: good posts about a coin, people gaining confidence thanks to quality. But this makes me somewhat pessimistic, because the way I see it:
Malicious intentions: pump & dump
Benevolent intentions: pump and dump
Sad, hey? Maybe tokyoghetto and (other quality posters for other coins) should had something like"it is very possible that my post are read by numerous people and this will raise the price. In that case, if you plan to invest, please be careful about when to invest. Either you plan to keep it for very long and in that case it doesn't matter much or wait for the prices to go down. I would hate to be responsible for you holding the bag".

Why I feel people always try to find conspiracy theories?

The same way people have gambler's fallacy or consider the casino are rigged: they try to find a pattern and when they cannot find it (either because it is beyond their reach or because it really is random), they scapegoat on  conspiracy. That's human nature: we fear the unknown. The counter this fear we look for explanation and when we can't find one, we invent one (lightning in the sky, losing 6 times in a row, buying high...)

Can't you be objective about the actual work and progress going on with HBN?

I considered Picasso's Guernica ugly until someone explained it to me. "Ugly" is emotional. Explanation is rational. Same goes with price. Most people (me included, but I am trying to help myself on this) have "epidermic" reaction. I some weeks ago read a paper about the importance of the amygdala in our financial reaction - why we tend to repeat the same mistake even though we know that it is wrong). The text was in French but you can read about Amygdala hijack, it gives some insight (although less than the French text) about this anthropological issue. Plus, the Aversion to loss, another deeply rooted mammalian reaction (maybe some birds too, not sure), easily triggers the amygdala hijack. By the way, rationalists tend to overlook these parts and have an arrogant discours about average people (I'm not implying this is your case, it is just a general observation). This is related to the "Willpower is king" or "weak hands" concept, themselves, I believe related to the old concept of "mind over body". But I derail

[Jamesco]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=582796.msg6372061#msg6372061

The only reason I do not add more comment is as I have had a crazy out drinking night tonight in town. Unick I  respect the work you put into HBN and do not take offense to your comments, all I want to do is try add some integrity to the community. I was a spectator in both pumps.

I cant help but feel somewhat frustrated, I thought the point of a journal is to highlight the ups and downs objectively, not to cherry blossom everything. Fuck I love cherry blossoms, just not when I want to make educated investment decisions. No businessman wants that.

Look I don't read this blog for utopian visions of retirement profits. I read it for insight, which is something I felt I gained earlier in this thread, rather than later, but if thats what the hbn community prefer, I understand.

Look in all honestly if no one really appreciates this type opinion on the topic, its cool, we'll leave it at that. Cheers

[unick]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=582796.msg6372061#msg6372061

The only reason I do not add more comment is as I have had a crazy out drinking night tonight in town. Unick I  respect the work you put into HBN and do not take offense to your comments, all I want to do do is try add some integrity to the community. I was a spectator in both pumps.

I cant help but feel somewhat frustrated, I thought the point of a journal is to highlight the ups and downs objectively, not to cherry blossom everything. Fuck I love cherry blossoms, just not when I want to make educated investment decisions. No businessman wants that.

Look I don't read this blog for utopian visions of retirement profits. I read it for insight, which is something I felt I gained earlier in this thread, rather than later, but if thats what the hbn community prefer, I understand.

Look in all honestly if no one really appreciates this type opinion on the topic, its cool, we'll leave it at that. Cheers

First thanks for sharing the link... I wasn't aware of that!

As I understand it, it was the work of a small group, but I guess that is the game of the free trade.

I want to make clear I didn't mean any of my comments in an offensive way, I still believe HBN is not a scam, there was a natural uptrend to HBN since it's beginnings and the pump to 78k was just that, a pump. I still firmly believe it's going to hit those numbers again in the future.

I didn't feel offended either by your comments, I just wanted to point out the fact that this community is solid and mature, sure some people can pump the coin, I can see that now thanks to your link, but it doesn't mean that the actual work that is done is bad or "scammy".

I tried (and maybe missed the target) to differentiate the actual good work and innovation that is done here (that gives value to the coin) of the idea that this is purely a "pumping" mission!

That being said, I feel the same way as you on the fact that having both side of the medal adds integrity to the community, and I truly encourage it .  In a sense this is what I tried to accomplish by weighting in the fact that this was not a pumping mission. Maybe I miss interpreted your comment in that regard and sorry if you felt "attacked" in any way from my answer. It was never my intention.

Look in all honestly if no one really appreciates this type opinion on the topic, its cool, we'll leave it at that. Cheers

I'm speaking for myself (but I'm sure the community shares my opinion on this one), you, and anyone who stands up to speak, are more than welcome to share their opinions.  These kinds of conversation are what makes the community stronger in general!