What are the chances BTC is replaced by something better soon?

[Akka]

If the number is so important why cant we replace the lost coins?

Because it would undermine confidence in BTC and it's not necessary at all. Just split them up!

how would it undermine confidence if the coins will not be undermined but just mined?

The Value of coins is under the premise that there currently are only about 12 Million coins and that there will be only 21 Million. Also every lost coin is basically priced in.

"Issuing" More would reduce the value of every coin, also it would undermine the confidence that the new Max, truly is a max.

Luckily, it's simply not possible without the agreement of the users.

[Dr Bloggood]

If the number is so important why cant we replace the lost coins?

Because it would undermine confidence in BTC and it's not necessary at all. Just split them up!

how would it undermine confidence if the coins will not be undermined but just mined?

That's a very good question.

I think the answer basically lies in apple juice and an elephant attempting a handstand.

[giletto]

Bitcoin was first to market. It will take something to go seriously wrong with it for another coin to take number one spot.

Facebook, Google and so on are your examples.
It won't get replaced.

P.S. NXT sucks.

Mate, Facebook was not the first social website. Google was not the first search engine. Look what is happen with the really first. The competitor which you count learning from the mistakes of the first one...

[FandangledGizmo]

Bitcoin was first to market. It will take something to go seriously wrong with it for another coin to take number one spot.

Facebook, Google and so on are your examples.
It won't get replaced.

P.S. NXT sucks.

Mate, Facebook was not the first social website. Google was not the first search engine. Look what is happen with the really first. The competitor which you count learning from the mistakes of the first one...

Yeah I think the odds are 47% that the first mover is replaced.

http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-blank-first-mover-advantage-overrated-2010-10

Innovator                                First to develop or patent an idea
Product Pioneer                        First to have a working model
First Mover                              First to sell the product
                
                 47% failure rate

So yes there's nearly a 50% chance Bitcoin will fail and be replaced by something better soon. Just hedge. Not hard.

[gentlemand]

I truly do not understand people who keep making the myspace/ facebook comparison. It's not a viable one to make.

Exactly how much of peoples' money was tied up in myspace or altavsita? Zilch. Jumping to something that works better that cost you precisely zero is a screaming no brainer.

Sure, there was money invested but only on the service provider side.

It's a slightly different matter when millions of dollars of personal and professional investment from countless sources across the globe have been sunk in. That's an extremely powerful incentive for that money to stay put and push development and adoption.

The window for a currency to usurp Bitcoin is closing. There are other currencies out there that are better and fairer but many will be lost in the sea of altcoins.

The first mover and 'good enough' factor is a powerful one, especially for something that's so hard for a lot of average folks to comprehend. If it gains real traction it'll be the most trusted because it's taken all the scams, threats and batterings and proven itself to be still strong.

Bitcoin won't be the only one left standing but it will be the gold standard until something overwhelmingly superior appears. Perhaps it'll follow gold's story more closely that we imagine. It'll start off as a currency and become a hedge and store of value as more nimble offspring arrive.

[giletto]

...until something overwhelmingly superior appears...

As we say'd...

[Dr Bloggood]

I truly do not understand people who keep making the myspace/ facebook comparison. It's not a viable one to make.

Exactly how much of peoples' money was tied up in myspace or altavsita? Zilch. Jumping to something that works better that cost you precisely zero is a screaming no brainer.

Sure, there was money invested but only on the service provider side.

It's a slightly different matter when millions of dollars of personal and professional investment have been sunk in. That's an extremely powerful incentive for that money to stay put and push development and adoption.

The window for a currency to usurp Bitcoin is closing. There are other currencies out there that are better and fairer but many will be lost in the sea of altcoins.

The first mover and 'good enough' factor is a powerful one, especially for something that's so hard for a lot of average folks to comprehend. If it gains real traction it'll be the most trusted because it's taken all the scams, threats and batterings and proven itself to be still strong.

Bitcoin won't be the only one left standing but it will be the gold standard until something overwhelmingly superior appears. Perhaps it'll follow gold's story more closely that we imagine. It'll start off as a currency and become a hedge and store of value as more nimble offspring arrive.

I think you are absolutely right.

In other words, this is also about trust - it wasn't (in that sense) with myspace or altavista.

[yayayo]

I truly do not understand people who keep making the myspace/ facebook comparison. It's not a viable one to make.

Exactly how much of peoples' money was tied up in myspace or altavsita? Zilch. Jumping to something that works better that cost you precisely zero is a screaming no brainer.

Sure, there was money invested but only on the service provider side.

It's a slightly different matter when millions of dollars of personal and professional investment have been sunk in. That's an extremely powerful incentive for that money to stay put and push development and adoption.

The window for a currency to usurp Bitcoin is closing. There are other currencies out there that are better and fairer but many will be lost in the sea of altcoins.

The first mover and 'good enough' factor is a powerful one, especially for something that's so hard for a lot of average folks to comprehend. If it gains real traction it'll be the most trusted because it's taken all the scams, threats and batterings and proven itself to be still strong.

Bitcoin won't be the only one left standing but it will be the gold standard until something overwhelmingly superior appears. Perhaps it'll follow gold's story more closely that we imagine. It'll start off as a currency and become a hedge and store of value as more nimble offspring arrive.

I think you are absolutely right.

In other words, this is also about trust - it wasn't (in that sense) with myspace or altavista.

Yeah, well said!

Also not to forget, that bitcoin can be improved, too.

ya.ya.yo!

[gentlemand]

...until something overwhelmingly superior appears...

As we say'd...

Overwhelmingly rather than better. There are technically better ones out there right now. It would have to be something unbelievably compelling in a way that we haven't even thought of yet that Bitcoin somehow couldn't incorporate in itself.

Even then it'll be the same slog to convince people to move to it as we'll face from fiat to Bitcoin. It might be decades away and there'll still be a huge number of people who choose to trust the grand old man.

[giletto]

There are technically better ones out there right now

Which one? I see only competitor which copy the idea and put it in a new gift wrap paper, give a new name and change some terms, but below the line there are only Bitcoin clones.

The only one which are complete different are the pre mined one like ripple e.g., but exactly the difference make ripple not attractive for the Bitcoin comunity, who lost the trust in centralized and controlled currency.

[gpucoolingmethod]

There are technically better ones out there right now

Which one? I see only competitor which copy the idea and put it in a new gift wrap paper, give a new name and change some terms, but below the line there are only Bitcoin clones.

The only one which are complete different are the pre mined one like ripple e.g., but exactly the difference make ripple not attractive for the Bitcoin comunity, who lost the trust in centralized and controlled currency.

what about electrum and many others?
clearly you dont /want to/ know the other altcoins

[gentlemand]

You can still be a clone and be better. Less need for supercharged mining beasts, faster confirmations, fairer distribution of coins etc.

[reymarkperry]

I agree. I don’t think something greater than BTC will come sooner. Everything that we’re looking for in an alternative currency can be found in bitcoin. Now that most of online casinos and other business owners are starting to accept it, I don’t think they will accept new one soon, if ever there will be.

[Dafar]

I'm more worried about VTC (VertCoin) replacing LTC... because I have a pretty high stake in LTC.

[spacegh0st]

I doubt it will happen.

[go1111111]

If the number is so important why cant we replace the lost coins?

Because it would undermine confidence in BTC and it's not necessary at all. Just split them up!

how would it undermine confidence if the coins will not be undermined but just mined?

People don't seem to be getting this:

If you own bitcoins, what is important is the % of total bitcoins (that will ever exist) that you own. If any change occurs which preserves everyone's % of total bitcoins, then it should have no effect on the value of your holdings. Adding more decimal places preserves the % of bitcoins that everyone owns. Deciding that more bitcoins should be mined changes the % of the total bitcoins that everyone owns, and is therefore equivalent to theft from existing owners.

[keithers]

I don't think that any coin will replace bitcoin...it is more a matter of which coin can work best alongside bitcoin.  Up until this point, it looks like it will be litecoin because of the faster transaction times, and the adoption slowly getting picked up by merchants.   It is seemingly like 2 years on bitcoin's tail...

[gpucoolingmethod]

I don't think that any coin will replace bitcoin...it is more a matter of which coin can work best alongside bitcoin.  Up until this point, it looks like it will be litecoin because of the faster transaction times, and the adoption slowly getting picked up by merchants.   It is seemingly like 2 years on bitcoin's tail...

I believe bitcoin will be replaced sooner than most of you think.There are many reasons its not good enough

[TotalPanda]

 

[skywave]

I don't think we need replacements.
simple (w/o specifying which coins):

1st coin for major investment in your future - like pension, property and etc.
2nd coin for investments like car, boat and etc.
3rd coin for everyday purchases and utility bills..

so 3 coins for the world for the future.
which ones will remain to be seen.
a good guess would be those 3 coins who are best at marketing themselves and specializing in each their bracket of the 3 above. that means making it convenient how to purchase them, store them and also how to use them.