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pening
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January 19, 2014, 02:48:25 PM |
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So and what do you think about the physical to paper gold ratio about 69...?
Isnt it due to the futures trading...? Because if comex sells gold futures its clear and understandable that it simply wont have all the physical gold in its vaults...?? Yep, that would be about it. Most actual physical trade is out of London. Much of what you read about gold price manipulation is generated from people with ideological reasons to say so and a penchant for fantasy. That's not to say everything is false, but a nugget of truth is embellished and morphed into a far bigger "theory". At the end of the day, it would be very hard to manipulate gold prices more than a few %, there's too many interested parties and too much information freely available. Example, registered stock, owners etc publicly available. Its not the price being manipulated, the information is. Anyone claiming $5k, $15k has no basis for that analysis, they are just trying to pump the price because they hold and wish the price to go that high. I could make a perfectly sound case for current gold being grossly overvalued (in brief, if its a hedge against inflation, price has far outpaced inflation and priced in another decade or more) Before its used as a counter example, LIBOR rates where manipulated fractions of a % for gains or cut loses on daily movements, not wholesale shifts of the market over medium or long term. |
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BreathOfZen
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January 19, 2014, 03:17:03 PM |
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So and what do you think about the physical to paper gold ratio about 69...?
Isnt it due to the futures trading...? Because if comex sells gold futures its clear and understandable that it simply wont have all the physical gold in its vaults...?? Yep, that would be about it. Most actual physical trade is out of London. Much of what you read about gold price manipulation is generated from people with ideological reasons to say so and a penchant for fantasy. That's not to say everything is false, but a nugget of truth is embellished and morphed into a far bigger "theory". At the end of the day, it would be very hard to manipulate gold prices more than a few %, there's too many interested parties and too much information freely available. Example, registered stock, owners etc publicly available. Its not the price being manipulated, the information is. Anyone claiming $5k, $15k has no basis for that analysis, they are just trying to pump the price because they hold and wish the price to go that high. I could make a perfectly sound case for current gold being grossly overvalued (in brief, if its a hedge against inflation, price has far outpaced inflation and priced in another decade or more) Before its used as a counter example, LIBOR rates where manipulated fractions of a % for gains or cut loses on daily movements, not wholesale shifts of the market over medium or long term. Treasury rates, Sup-Prime Mortgage rates, USD/CNY exchange rate, Gold price until 1971, Greek bond interest rate until 2010,... |
Aoeui Artifacts
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uranian
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January 19, 2014, 06:27:56 PM |
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That's just a graph showing an increasing short position over 11 years. It proves nothing. No, it shows nothing in regard to the short position. What it shows is your profit if you had simply bought and held gold, versus your profit if you had sold every morning, bought every evening. There is no better proof of manipulation that the massive outperformance of this technique, because you're frontrunning the manipulation. If you do the opposite (buy in the morning, sell in the evening), you'd have actually managed to have lost money despite the fact that gold went from 250 bucks to 1900 bucks. You may prefer not to believe that the price of gold is manipulated, but that's another issue. The lynchpin of the financial system is the dollar, so interest rates are manipulated via derivatives (which measure in the quadrillions, and over three quarters of that market is in interest rate swaps), and so is gold, because these are the 2 things central to setting the value of the fiat US dollar. |
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uranian
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January 19, 2014, 06:36:59 PM |
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Well im sorry but someone of us is incredibly stupid. You didnt give ANY arguments to support your statement that gold is not manipulated. I at least told something meanigful why YES it MIGHT or NO it is NOT, you didnt give any... I really dont understand posts likes yours, since they only bring confusion to the people..
The cognitive dissonance is impressive in its way. You can actually see Jeff Christian telling you clearly that there's 100 times as much "paper gold" as there is physical gold out there, and people prefer to believe that the gold market isn't manipulated. People say, and you heard it today, there is not that much physical metal out there, and there isn't. But in the "physical market," as the market uses that term, there is much more metal than that. There is a hundred times what there is. I can understand not wanting to see that every financial market is a travesty, and I can understand paid shills, lol. |
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aminorex
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1029
Sine secretum non libertas
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January 20, 2014, 12:49:23 AM |
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holy fracking sheezit3cicles. u.s. treasury is a dead man walking |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 20, 2014, 12:52:31 AM |
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So and what do you think about the physical to paper gold ratio about 69...?
Isnt it due to the futures trading...? Because if comex sells gold futures its clear and understandable that it simply wont have all the physical gold in its vaults...?? Yep, that would be about it. Most actual physical trade is out of London. Much of what you read about gold price manipulation is generated from people with ideological reasons to say so and a penchant for fantasy. That's not to say everything is false, but a nugget of truth is embellished and morphed into a far bigger "theory". At the end of the day, it would be very hard to manipulate gold prices more than a few %, there's too many interested parties and too much information freely available. Example, registered stock, owners etc publicly available. Its not the price being manipulated, the information is. Anyone claiming $5k, $15k has no basis for that analysis, they are just trying to pump the price because they hold and wish the price to go that high. I could make a perfectly sound case for current gold being grossly overvalued (in brief, if its a hedge against inflation, price has far outpaced inflation and priced in another decade or more) Before its used as a counter example, LIBOR rates where manipulated fractions of a % for gains or cut loses on daily movements, not wholesale shifts of the market over medium or long term. Well i was worried about that... Theres so much disinfo and liars, even in this thread, some posts are just stupid, maybe the author doesnt speak that good english so there might be some misinterprations. I dont know about the libor that much, just heard it was manipulated... On the other hand you really cant take the inflation number which i reported by the government (so you cannot use it to calculate that the gold is currently overvalued). Its really hard to tell who t o belive :-(. For example Peter Schiff videos used to be quite interesting for me, and i belived almost all he said, but then i saw his video on bitcoin vs. gold and it was obvious that he tries to downplay the value ov bitcoin and pump the gold price, i belive he might be frightened by Bitcoin as a competition to gold. So after this i know i cant fully belive even Peter Schiff. Than recently i had read a "new proof" about gold manipulation, and it was the slam in april (or which month) of 2013 when the price has fallen from 1600 to 1300. They said that there was a significantly more gold in the comex vault before the crash, and it was presented in the light that someone had to knew that the price of gold will be getting down so they prepared the gold... (at least i think this is the way it was presented), but if you think about it, when you want to sell a big ammount of gold you probably have to deliver it to the exchange beforehand... and that probably what happened, but it was presented as a manipulation... :-(. I really dont know who to belive, i would love to see the gold price skyrocket but there too many lias for me to fully belive that. what for example do you think about another proof of gold price manipulation and thats the fact that in the april crash of 2013, there were massive ammounts of gold pumpted into market at the same exact time, which goes against the seller, because if he wasnt really retarded, he had to know that the price will significantly drop, and he will earn less from the gold selling, so why did he do that...? Why didnt he sell in smaller portions in a longer time period...? Did he REALLY NEEDED to sell it all at once..? That seems again suspicious to me. What do you think about that? Was the volume of the gold sold in april 2013 really that big, and was i really dumped at the same time (or is it just a dissinfo?), and what other motivation could the seller have (other than to manipulate the price)?? |
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 20, 2014, 12:58:49 AM |
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Well im sorry but someone of us is incredibly stupid. You didnt give ANY arguments to support your statement that gold is not manipulated. I at least told something meanigful why YES it MIGHT or NO it is NOT, you didnt give any... I really dont understand posts likes yours, since they only bring confusion to the people..
The cognitive dissonance is impressive in its way. You can actually see Jeff Christian telling you clearly that there's 100 times as much "paper gold" as there is physical gold out there, and people prefer to believe that the gold market isn't manipulated. People say, and you heard it today, there is not that much physical metal out there, and there isn't. But in the "physical market," as the market uses that term, there is much more metal than that. There is a hundred times what there is. I can understand not wanting to see that every financial market is a travesty, and I can understand paid shills, lol. This is again one of the stupid posts around here...? I would LOVE to belive that the gold si manipulated, i still a little bit more belive it than dont. But why do you imply that i think that GOLD is NOT manipulated? I never said that, i just said that i would like more information, because even when i quite belive in the manipulation, i also think the gold sellers might have a strong interest in making up such a story or just exegerrating it. You didnt understand that? Im really not a person to whom cognitive dissonance applies to :-). |
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uranian
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January 20, 2014, 01:14:02 AM |
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But why do you imply that i think that GOLD is NOT manipulated?
There is more than 100 times "paper gold" to physical gold. I don't know how to put it much more clearly than that. Those people who have futures gold contracts - that "paper gold" - believe that they will be able to convert those paper contracts to physical gold should they so desire. If less than 1% of them actually tried to do that, it would break the market. I can quote you numerous central bankers clearly telling you that they manipulate the market, for example: "Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." ~ Greenspan, July 1998 "We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it." ~ Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, September 1999 Read more at GATA's summary: http://www.gata.org/node/10554 |
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 20, 2014, 01:47:53 AM |
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But why do you imply that i think that GOLD is NOT manipulated?
There is more than 100 times "paper gold" to physical gold. I don't know how to put it much more clearly than that. Those people who have futures gold contracts - that "paper gold" - believe that they will be able to convert those paper contracts to physical gold should they so desire. If less than 1% of them actually tried to do that, it would break the market. I can quote you numerous central bankers clearly telling you that they manipulate the market, for example: "Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." ~ Greenspan, July 1998 "We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it." ~ Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, September 1999 Read more at GATA's summary: http://www.gata.org/node/10554Ok, i have heard about that 1 physical oz has around 100 paper "owners". I understand that. But isnt the meaning which this implies a little bit misinterpreted by the gold sellers? As i said before, lets say that it is true and there are far more paper contracts than there is physical gold (people say so, but i cannot proof so or otherwise, so i will belive it). But as i said, you can trade FUTURE gold contracts on COMEX (as far as i know). Futures are a normal "thing" and (exist in the financial world) also on commodity markets (like wheat etc.). That means that there even cannot be currently as much physical gold as is the paper, since the majority of the paper gold claims (i just think this, i might be wrong) are future contracts... That means that you are knowingly and willingly buying gold that has not been mined yet, but will be mined in 4 years (for example), thats the essense of future trading as far as i know. So the thing that there are fewer physical gold oz really doesnt play a role here, since the majority of contracts are futures... Only the gold sellers are trying to spin it to fact that this is some kind of manipulation, but no, it is just future contracts... Do you understand now? The only possible way of manipulation (if the majority of the contracts are futures (as i belive they are?)), is that even these future contracts are SOLD heavily over the real ammount of gold that can be mined in future, that means that in the next 3 years for example there will be around, i dont know, 1 000 000 Oz of gold mined, but currently the comex is selling around 2 000 000 gold Oz futures (3 years contracts), even though it might know that it wont be able to deliver it... Do you understand now? The fact that there are 100 paper claims for one CURRENTLY existing 1 Oz gold doesnt mean anything, if the majority of the claims are gold futures... So what you are telling me is, that comex is selling WAY too many GOLD FUTURES, which he knows, even at this time, he wont be able to deliver in the future? Im not a native english speaker so i might have problems spilling my mind out here, thats the reason why we might not understand each other correctly... |
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NanoAkron
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January 20, 2014, 11:37:43 AM |
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(blah blah blah)
So for example the situation with german gold... you see this all as a "hoax" and thus it wont have any impact on the future price of gold...?
The german situation is exactly what I am talking about. Do you think the US did not propose to give the germans the "money equivalent" of the missing gold ? Don't you guess why the germans did not accept ? Because there is no way they could buy back the same quantity of gold on the markets with that money. The London price is NOT the price at wich you can buy or sell any significant quantities of gold. Interesting development. I last heard of the German gold problem a few months ago. It also shows the Germans are also unhappy holding large amounts of US$…which would mean 'backing' their economy with US$ and ending up at the whims of the US economy at large, rather than a solid asset (gold). |
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lnternet
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January 20, 2014, 03:15:17 PM |
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From what I've read in German media, the German gold in NY was bought there locally in the post war era, and it has never been in Germany. Same for the gold in Paris. The Germans wanted to store their gold as far west as possible during the cold war era, and since then it hasn't been moved inward. The gold moving from Paris has not been part of the US payment, it's separate. And the gold from the US faces some logistical challenges like insuring the transfers, validating the quality of the gold, etc. Now that's what I've read, could be cited incorrectly or wrong information in the first place. But this certainly does explain the situation without the need for the US being gold-broke. Bank of England gold vault video (December 2012): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTtf5s2HFkA |
1ntemetqbXokPSSkuHH4iuAJRTQMP6uJ9
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uranian
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January 20, 2014, 03:18:44 PM |
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This is a direct quote from one of the futures contracts: Delivery may take place on any business day beginning on the first business day of the delivery month or any subsequent business day of the delivery month, but not later than the last business day of the current delivery month. I.e. these contracts are written with the understanding that the buyer of the contract can ask for delivery of physical gold. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_contract_specifications.htmlIf 1% of the buyers asked for their gold to be delivered, there would be no comex left, and true price discovery might happen for gold, absent the most powerful financial entities on the planet (central banks and private banks) manipulating the price for their own ends. |
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lnternet
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January 20, 2014, 03:50:04 PM |
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I've counted approximately how much gold there is in the video. The left of the room contains 3 rows of 15 pallets of 6 levels of 4 layers of 20 bars each. The middle of the room has 10 such pallets and a newly started one. The right of the room is never fully visible, so I estimated it to 8 full pallets. That gives 30240 bars. Each bar is 13.4kg, so we are looking at 405 metric tons. In the vid it was also stated that each level holds 1t, which means the average bar weighs only 1000kg/80 = 12.5 kg instead of the 13.4kg I used, but I think they just rounded the level. It also states there are multiple rooms, that the UK officially holds ~300 tons, and that they hold gold from other nations. Anyhow, if those bars are real, there is about 400 tons of gold in this one room, which seems to be in agreement with stats. |
1ntemetqbXokPSSkuHH4iuAJRTQMP6uJ9
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uranian
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January 20, 2014, 04:49:22 PM |
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The question in regard to the BoE gold is not so much is it there (assuming those bars aren't all full of tungsten, anyway), more who does it belong to? http://www.goldmoney.com/research/research-archive/Untangling-gold-at-the-Bank-of-EnglandCentral banks remain steadfastly unwilling to allow independent audits of their gold reserves. It's known that they're involved in gold leasing, and rehypothecation; the UK is the only place that allows infinite rehypothecation, which is why a lot of financial crime is centred in London. the last audit of Fort Knox occurred in 1953, right after President Eisenhower's inauguration. |
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Ducky1
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January 20, 2014, 05:45:35 PM |
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More lol  |
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uranian
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January 20, 2014, 07:21:17 PM |
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That chart reminds me of the price of bitcoin, lol. It looks like the crimex might be out of business soon; but I'm not holding my breath, as we've seen gold in backwardation before, and the criminals in charge have somehow manage to keep it hanging together. I sincerely hope they go bust, because their efforts to control gold are entirely due to their efforts to support the USD, and central banking is the system that enslaves every human alive. The credit bubble is now bigger than it was pre-Lehman, so 2014 should be an interesting year, financially.
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 20, 2014, 08:32:58 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2014, 08:46:50 PM by Mikcik |
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From what I've read in German media, the German gold in NY was bought there locally in the post war era, and it has never been in Germany. Same for the gold in Paris. The Germans wanted to store their gold as far west as possible during the cold war era, and since then it hasn't been moved inward. The gold moving from Paris has not been part of the US payment, it's separate. And the gold from the US faces some logistical challenges like insuring the transfers, validating the quality of the gold, etc. Now that's what I've read, could be cited incorrectly or wrong information in the first place. But this certainly does explain the situation without the need for the US being gold-broke. Bank of England gold vault video (December 2012): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTtf5s2HFkAOh... :-D you belive that this ALL is soooo muách complicated that it will take 8 years... :-), like REALLY? And it is so complicated that all the fed managed to sent back is 5 Tonnes, really :-)... Well... i dont belive that ;-). Even thought agreed, states and their employes are probably really slow in general... but this slow? In such and important issue? Really? Accompanied with denial of even seeing my (germans) gold in the first place? With melting bars, to meet some fuckign standard...? Really :-)... Well i think the germans might melt it again (refine) just to check quality of the gold (like china did years ago), so i dont understand the melting in USA in first place, not mentioning that the Germans have probably more experienced refiners, so it would be better do it back in germany anyway.... You really belive all that... :-)? On the other hand, is the situation really that bad the FED really COULD not manage to find somewhere in a year more than 5 tonnes? And i belive that germans made their repatriation claim beforehand, so FED had at least 2 years to manage to find gold (if it doesnt have it), but all it has managed to find are 5 tonnes... Thats really weird, either FED is totally incompetent, or there is some other problem (but still, 8 years is a deal breaker!), or the situation is really that bad that FED simply even after hard trying couldnt put together more then 5 tonnes... Thats scary. |
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 20, 2014, 08:38:10 PM |
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This is a direct quote from one of the futures contracts: Delivery may take place on any business day beginning on the first business day of the delivery month or any subsequent business day of the delivery month, but not later than the last business day of the current delivery month. I.e. these contracts are written with the understanding that the buyer of the contract can ask for delivery of physical gold. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_contract_specifications.htmlIf 1% of the buyers asked for their gold to be delivered, there would be no comex left, and true price discovery might happen for gold, absent the most powerful financial entities on the planet (central banks and private banks) manipulating the price for their own ends. Well know, you have just proven you wrong and me right in the first place... That means that future contacts can be made into physical deliveries AFTER certain date only... So even if comex had currently 1 OZ physical, but would sell currently 1 000 000 Oz FUTURE contracts really doesnt mean much, if the future contracts are due to physical delivery in 5 years (or i dont know for how long periods are these contracts made)... The more i read here the more i belive that there really IS a conspiracy. but on the side of the GOLD sellers telling others that there is gold price manipulation... :-). The argument of CURRENT paper gold claims exceeding the CURRENTLY avaiable physical gold really doesnt play a role here, if the majority of the claims are future contracts. Dont you understand that? |
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