Price of gold manipulation

[Mikcik]

The US has not been unable to deliver the gold to Germany.  The request for delivery was by some date in the future (2020) and so far some 12% of the requested amount has been delivered.  For some reason the request not being for instant delivery has been spun into a story that the gold isn't there, but there's been no default this far.  The fact that Germany hasn't asked for all gold held in the US be repatriated is overlooked, along with the fact they've not requested any of the gold held in London.  Also, when Venezuela asked for their gold from the US ( about half the German amount) there was no problems and it was delivered.

Omg... are you serious!? Im speechless here, also the stupid stuff that alex wrote... someone is stupid here guys, im sorry and i dont belive its me and i dont mean that offensively)...

1) As i said, if you dont know anything about the subject please dont write here, cause you are just wasting others time (to read, understand that YOU dont understand the topic, and then writting reply correcting you).
2) Germany asked for around 674 tonnes back as far as i remember, so far something around 37.5 tonnes were delivered, thats around 5.56 %, and only 0,741% has come from FED (!). Where did you get 12 i dont know...
3) There were i belive 2 schedules in first place, the first one was calculating with delivery of 300 or 150 tonnes by the end of 2015... This first wont be fullfiled (find it on the net)¨. Second, when it takes you 8 years to deliver something you should have and thus just send it, than sorry, but yeah USA has NOT been unable to deliver. Sorry but if you dont get it i cant really say more to you...
4)"...There has been no default so far..." omg... and dont you think thats the one thing they are trying to avoid as much as possible?
5) What has london to do with it? Obviously they dont feel afraid of the gold in london. "The fact that Germany hasn't asked for all gold held in the US be repatriated is overlooked" no it is not, and you cannot for christ sake use it as argument. I would interpret it in a way that if they demanded ALL the reserves it might be a "shock" news and quite a signal that something is not right, they wanted to go on it slowly and demanded just a part (to test if they can get even the part back) and what would you know... they cant get back even the stupid PART, not mentioning the whole... Or you do you think that if they would ask for all the gold it wouldnt be the issue and it wouldnt take as much time...?
6) About london, germany had already secretivelly repatriated around 940 tonnes (!!) in a year 2000 and 2001 i think it took them something around a year, the gold was flown there i belive, and even its a lot shorter distance, they still were able to get back their almost 1000 tonnes over a year... Now how many gold did FED managed to return to germany in 2013, oh yeah... 5 tonnes.. nothing wrong here...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9631962/Bundesbank-slashed-London-gold-holdings-in-mystery-move.html
BTW they had repatriated their gold from london in the time when london/Great britain were selling a great part of their gold reserves (in the market), also known as the Browns Bottom and i dont know... it almost seems as they might be little bit afraid if theirs (germany) gold wouldnt be sold with the Great Britains gold in a one go... :-)...
7) "...Also, when Venezuela asked for their gold from the US ( about half the German amount) there was no problems and it was delivered....". Exactly... and when it was... it was BEFORE germany and there are interesting things in this:
a) Venezuella got most of is gold from LONDON and PARIS (not the US), i didnt find the correct numbers but what i have read, only a small part was delivered from US, majority was in FRANCE and LONDON... so you really cannot use this a proof of NONE-problem.
b) Venezuella asked for around i dont know 140 or 160 tonnes, (or more?) and was able to bring them back in 4-6 months... fed had 12 months (well actually almost 24 months, check what i have written in previous pages) and manages to deliver 5 tonnes... Hm... nothing weird here...


REALLY guys, i BEG you (!). If you dont understand the topic, DONT write here, you are just wasting others (and yours aswell) time and are spreading confusion (!!).

[Mikcik]

I will reply to AlexGR posts probably somewhere in the future if i find the courage and time that can be wasted. No offense but majority of what you write is just nonsense and am worried you are not able to see it/realize it :-(.

[Mikcik]

Still another observation, if you read zerohedge you have probably noticed they are pushing gold quite a lot... they are probably connected with some gold bullion dealer, they have gold ads etc. Nothing really wrong there but i also managed to realize that they are really informing about EVERY stupid move in gold and presenting it in a way that THIS and THIS is a big deal, but in reality, its just stupid small upwards moves. Also notice how they scale the measure in each graph, to make a small UP move in gold appear as a big deal, when in reality it moved just from 1300 to 1305, which really... is nothing...

And if they stock market falls a little, they also over-fear-monger it using in-apropriate scale measure and make a small fall look like a BIG fall (from 1300 to 1290 for example).

So i would be quite cautious in fully trusting zerohedge.

[Mikcik]

Also its worth mentioning that Romania cannot get its 90 tonnes of gold back from Russia:

http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/romania-wants-gold-treasure-back-from-russia/3047

But this is a different case, because i belive that Russia has the gold but simply doesnt want to give it back, either because romania is playing with USA and building some radars there or something, or simply by the fact that i doesnt want to give the gold back :-).

I belive russia has the gold.

So i think its also worth considering that US had the germany gold but simply doesnt want to give it back, but  Germany is a big player and i dont belive that  US would like to have any international problems due to this, unless they see some BIG major event in the near future when they will just openly stated that they will confiscate all the gold stored in their vaults and there nothing that the states that owned the gold can go. Ans US is somehow counting with the possibility that after the future event all the states will accept this...
The event might be the economic collapse or something other.

what do you think about the possibility that they have the gold but simply dont want to give it back (and are waiting for some near future event that will change a lot of things)??

[pening]

I may well have had made a mis-understanding, as there is much mis-information on this topic from less than genuine sources.  The reference to Venezuela might seem irrelevant but at the time the same sources said they wouldn't get their gold, it would disappear or arrive and be full of tungsten.  This proved false.  Likewise the point about London is to show this plan is not because of fears the gold isn't present (as claimed by some sources), but that its simply what they state: to store half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults.  (There's a subtext here, to who spreads the mis-information.  They only want to paint a picture against the US).  Its entirely possible to deliver more gold in future years than in the first, so let us wait until at least some way into the forward schedule to declare that the anyone has been unable to deliver.

[Dr Bloggood]

Its entirely possible to deliver more gold in future years than in the first, so let us wait until at least some way into the forward schedule to declare that the anyone has been unable to deliver.

Hmm...if it's grey and huge and has a trunk and four legs and two big teeth of ivory coming out at the front, then it's probably an elephant.

Now you can say: It's not proven that this is an elephant, don't bet on it yet! I really doubt it's one.

And you are right, it's not proven yet. However, the indications are so overwhelming that I will damn sure assume it's an elephant (in the room) until I get some contrary indicators!

Once it starts roaring and grows yellow fur, I will take my assumptions back. However, it's extremely unlikely that will happen. Until then, my assumptions stand.

[Dr Bloggood]

1. It would be expensive

2. More importantly, it would look incredibly stupid in front of the whole world to default on Germany's gold. It would be like a statement in big letters: "Gold supplies of the US and the West are gone. Run and grab all the gold you can, our economy is done with!" System comes apart, game over.

No way they could afford that, and Germany doesn't want that to happen either.

(1) is not that expensive (printing money is cheap)

As for (2) well, the Germans have leverage. They could blackmail the US to give their gold, or give them the money by saying "if you don't give us the gold OR the money equivalent as a discrete cash settlement that will bypass the "logistics problem" where you'll get off lightly to the press, we'll make it an international issue where we'll state, in rather direct terms, that you've robbed us and that your "logistic problems" are bullshit".

This prospect is a huge threat for the US and thus would have to comply otherwise trust in their role (and UK's role) as a custodian will be destroyed - no one will trust anyone else, everyone will seek repatriation and shit will hit the fan from gold shortages, making paper gold manipulation schemes fail (which, along with the petrodollar conversion, is the cornerstone strategy for preserving the USD's perceived value) and price going through the roof. Can the US afford this for a meager 600 tons or 24bn USD cash equivalent (~40mn per ton x 600 tons) ?

And not only do they have leverage but by deciding WHEN to do that type of blackmail, they can also go out and buy gold (physical or contracts) and benefit from their pre-knowledge of events, maximizing the gain from the squeeze that they themselves can cause.

In general Germans (=the government) don't seem too interested in their gold. Those who are REALLY interested in gold are actively raising their gold reserves, repatriating etc.

(1) True, I hadn't done the calculation either how little it would cost. I take that one back.

(2) On paper, this is all good and true. However, as I said, Germany isn't interested in things coming apart. They clearly helped the US to cover their gold-lies, for the following reasons: (1) To not cause on uproar within their own population, (2) To let the games continue and for the leaders to stay in power (seems like the only thing that matters to them!)

[AlexGR]

(2) On paper, this is all good and true. However, as I said, Germany isn't interested in things coming apart. They clearly helped the US to cover their gold-lies, for the following reasons: (1) To not cause on uproar within their own population, (2) To let the games continue and for the leaders to stay in power (seems like the only thing that matters to them!)

Again, I'm telling you, the whole story was leaked to the goldbugs so that they can get excited with the elite playing the delivery card in the future and crashing the goldbug speculation + reputation.

If people are looking for real gold shortage stories they should investigate India and how the people got blocked from buying physical for cheap.

What did you hear on the news? Trade deficit, blah blah blah, have to take measures, blah blah blah etc.

The trade deficit attributable to gold import was like 3-4% in 2012 - the other 96-97% was imports and foreign payments of all other types.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India

Imports   $488.6 billion (2012 est.)
Exports   $309.1 billion (2012 est.

(deficit = 179.5bn)

India imported ~860 tons in 2012 x 53.7mn USD per ton = ~45bn USD gold imports in 2012.
They also exported 39 bn USD in jewelry and gems, making the actual deficit in that department around 6bn out of the 180bn trade deficit.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=198286&sn=Detail

And what was banned? Gold. Why? Because of "trade deficit" reasons

Other bullshit stories circulated later on mid-to-later 2013 on why demand on India had been curbed by the gold tax, when, in fact, gold was actually cheaper (due to extremely low international price) even after factoring in the tiny gold tax.

[zeetubes]

...(There's a subtext here, to who spreads the mis-information.  They only want to paint a picture against the US).  Its entirely possible to deliver more gold in future years than in the first, so let us wait until at least some way into the forward schedule to declare that the anyone has been unable to deliver.

"so let us wait...."

I think the purpose of this thread is to try and anticipate what gold will do in the future so we can decide whether to invest or not, versus other assets -- so waiting is not an option. I'm not sure when this thread was started but I'm guessing if someone had invested in gold and silver and sold BTC on that day, they would probably be looking at a good return. 

The two previous incidents among many that persuaded me that gold is being manipulated were:

1) 2010(?) when the IMF made one of its sudden announcements that it would sell 400 tons of gold and instead invest in less volatile assets (sic). Eric Sprott said at the time he would buy the gold from them. They never replied to his offer.

2) when the swiss central bank announced that it would peg its currency to the EURO, which should have driven the price of gold much higher. 20 minutes before the announcement, someone started a massive paper sale of gold. But how could anyone except for a central bank have known that the Swiss CB was about to make that announcement?

Btw I like zerohedge but I agree about the "spikes" or "crashes" they talk about are just designed to get people to read. But it is the only media outlet that actually provides a balanced perspective on anything about the markets. CNBC et al are just wall street cheerleaders.

[Dr Bloggood]

(2) On paper, this is all good and true. However, as I said, Germany isn't interested in things coming apart. They clearly helped the US to cover their gold-lies, for the following reasons: (1) To not cause on uproar within their own population, (2) To let the games continue and for the leaders to stay in power (seems like the only thing that matters to them!)

Again, I'm telling you, the whole story was leaked to the goldbugs so that they can get excited with the elite playing the delivery card in the future and crashing the goldbug speculation + reputation.

That's your opinion. I strongly disagree when looking at the overall picture (Bundesbank lying about smelting process, etc, etc..).

In regards to India, as far as I remember, it was not just a tax, but a huge restriction. And yes, they probably did it because they were asked to do it by the west. However, those restrictions will probably not hold up much longer, as Indian elections are coming closer.

I never claimed I believed anything the governments tell us. 

[Mikcik]

Also dont forget that there was some "semi-audit" of something? (gold? fed, fort knox)...? I dont know what exactly in autumn/winter 2013 or 2012 (i think) and a lot of interested people were waiting for the "audit" documents come out, it took them (US) government several months to just release the documents (they were delaying it as much as possible i belive) and when the papers came out, it was only around i dont know 15 pages, which is really small for "audit" (i belive) and only 1-2 pages were really talking about the gold reserves (the point of the audit), the previous 13-14 pages was just some legal crap by which the audit was made, what it means etc., just plain worthless legal text. And on those 1-2 pages it was actually i belive only an audit of the "books", like "do the books tell us that we have the gold? Yes they do, ok cool, so everyone calm down, the books say that the gold is there, no need to worry" :-D...

I really dont know what to think about that, but i really belive there is SOMETHING wrong... the goldbugs might be over-blowing the issue and future gold price, but i really belive that in core, there IS something fishy and some kind of manipulation.


Also why the fuck not audit the fort knox and FED... if theres nothing wrong, there no need to disagree with the audit, just make it happen and you will have a nice PR (if the gold is there)...

[AlexGR]

Also why the fuck not audit the fort knox and FED... if theres nothing wrong, there no need to disagree with the audit, just make it happen and you will have a nice PR (if the gold is there)...

That too is meaningless. They are moving around the gold as needed. One day it is here for the audit, the next day the gold is 10.000 miles away to cover some delivery for a paper contract and a week later it is back again in the vault arriving from another vault.

The Elite control the network of central banks and private repositories and thus have no issue to "present" gold when needed for an inspection, or deliver as needed. It's not like it will be needed simultaneously at every single point - that's when they'd have a problem.

[AlexGR]

(2) On paper, this is all good and true. However, as I said, Germany isn't interested in things coming apart. They clearly helped the US to cover their gold-lies, for the following reasons: (1) To not cause on uproar within their own population, (2) To let the games continue and for the leaders to stay in power (seems like the only thing that matters to them!)

Again, I'm telling you, the whole story was leaked to the goldbugs so that they can get excited with the elite playing the delivery card in the future and crashing the goldbug speculation + reputation.

That's your opinion. I strongly disagree when looking at the overall picture (Bundesbank lying about smelting process, etc, etc..).

In regards to India, as far as I remember, it was not just a tax, but a huge restriction. And yes, they probably did it because they were asked to do it by the west. However, those restrictions will probably not hold up much longer, as Indian elections are coming closer.

I never claimed I believed anything the governments tell us.  

Yes it was an imports restriction, a severe one.

There were two stories:

a) The bullshit story about the trade deficit and the need to curb gold as the culprit for the problem (=bullshit, the numbers don't add up, yet the ban was enforced and thus smuggling started to take effect)

b) The other bullshit story about reduced demand in India because the people could not affort the tax, that supposedly made gold expensive. Well, even with the tax it was lower than what they were getting it a few months earlier = bullshit. But it was enough to send gold some shockwaves of "oh, people of India stopped buying aggressively, gold demand is doomed".

[Dr Bloggood]

(2) On paper, this is all good and true. However, as I said, Germany isn't interested in things coming apart. They clearly helped the US to cover their gold-lies, for the following reasons: (1) To not cause on uproar within their own population, (2) To let the games continue and for the leaders to stay in power (seems like the only thing that matters to them!)

Again, I'm telling you, the whole story was leaked to the goldbugs so that they can get excited with the elite playing the delivery card in the future and crashing the goldbug speculation + reputation.

That's your opinion. I strongly disagree when looking at the overall picture (Bundesbank lying about smelting process, etc, etc..).

In regards to India, as far as I remember, it was not just a tax, but a huge restriction. And yes, they probably did it because they were asked to do it by the west. However, those restrictions will probably not hold up much longer, as Indian elections are coming closer.

I never claimed I believed anything the governments tell us.  

Yes it was an imports restriction, a severe one.

There were two stories:

a) The bullshit story about the trade deficit and the need to curb gold as the culprit for the problem (=bullshit, the numbers don't add up, yet the ban was enforced and thus smuggling started to take effect)

b) The other bullshit story about reduced demand in India because the people could not affort the tax, that supposedly made gold expensive. Well, even with the tax it was lower than what they were getting it a few months earlier = bullshit. But it was enough to send gold some shockwaves of "oh, people of India stopped buying aggressively, gold demand is doomed".

Ok, I see.

Yeah, I hardly watch any MSM anymore, they are generally there for misinformation. A couple of websites is where the good stuff is at!

[marcus_of_augustus]

Again, I'm telling you, the whole story was leaked to the goldbugs so that they can get excited with the elite playing the delivery card in the future and crashing the goldbug speculation + reputation.

This is obviously just a made up theory.

The "story" arose because of a citizen's action initiative in Germany that asked to audit Germany's gold reserves. That then escalated when it was found out him much of Germany's gold was not actually in Germany and then a group of politicians and citizens took up the cause to repatriate the gold. It is all well documented in Der Speigel if you were truly following the 'story'.

No conspiracy or "leaked story" for those 'crazy goldbugs'. Try harder for another meme?

[AlexGR]

Again, I'm telling you, the whole story was leaked to the goldbugs so that they can get excited with the elite playing the delivery card in the future and crashing the goldbug speculation + reputation.

This is obviously just a made up theory.

The "story" arose because of a citizen's action initiative in Germany that asked to audit Germany's gold reserves. That then escalated when it was found oout him much of Germany's gold was not actually in Germany and then a group of politicians and citizens took up the cause to repatriate the gold. It is all well documented in Der Speigel if you were truly following the 'story'.

No conspiracy or "leaked story" for those 'crazy goldbugs'. Try harder for another meme?

Since when do the governments do what small groups of active citizens desire?

Does the US audit the Fed or the Fort Knox because Ron Paul and his supporters -in the millions- ask that? No.

Do small groups of people, or even a few politicians, have any influence on how the government will act regarding its strategic resources like gold? The answer is again no.

Look, here in Greece for example there is a push from below to ask for the German loan during WW2 (occupied Greece was forced to loan Germany a few billions and then Germany never paid them back despite the end of the war and such). Do you really think citizens or politicians dictate if the government will actually demand it? 99% of the citizens are in favor, yet the government won't do it. Politicians from the entire spectrum are in favor and again the government won't do it.

The decision of Germany to ask repatriation has nothing to do with citizens activism. These are strategic decisions taken at an entirely different level. "Citizens action initiative" = null and void for the elite.

[knightcoin]

just a dumb question but what about the private gold ( non-government ) groups ? how they affects the price ?

I am curious because I saw that advertise (sorry) btw, I have not connection at all with this particular website but they say "BullionVault . com is part-owned by the World Gold Council and is the world's largest online investment gold service. We take care of $2 billion for more than 50,000 users "

[NanoAkron]

just a dumb question but what about the private gold ( non-government ) groups ? how they affects the price ?

I am curious because I saw that advertise (sorry) btw, I have not connection at all with this particular website but they say "BullionVault . com is part-owned by the World Gold Council and is the world's largest online investment gold service. We take care of $2 billion for more than 50,000 users "

That's all 'paper' gold - just numbers in a database. If major economies start to collapse, do you think anybody with their names and money with bullionvault.com are going to receive any real gold?

[Mikcik]

Again, I'm telling you, the whole story was leaked to the goldbugs so that they can get excited with the elite playing the delivery card in the future and crashing the goldbug speculation + reputation.

This is obviously just a made up theory.

The "story" arose because of a citizen's action initiative in Germany that asked to audit Germany's gold reserves. That then escalated when it was found oout him much of Germany's gold was not actually in Germany and then a group of politicians and citizens took up the cause to repatriate the gold. It is all well documented in Der Speigel if you were truly following the 'story'.

No conspiracy or "leaked story" for those 'crazy goldbugs'. Try harder for another meme?

Since when do the governments do what small groups of active citizens desire?

Does the US audit the Fed or the Fort Knox because Ron Paul and his supporters -in the millions- ask that? No.

Do small groups of people, or even a few politicians, have any influence on how the government will act regarding its strategic resources like gold? The answer is again no.

Look, here in Greece for example there is a push from below to ask for the German loan during WW2 (occupied Greece was forced to loan Germany a few billions and then Germany never paid them back despite the end of the war and such). Do you really think citizens or politicians dictate if the government will actually demand it? 99% of the citizens are in favor, yet the government won't do it. Politicians from the entire spectrum are in favor and again the government won't do it.

The decision of Germany to ask repatriation has nothing to do with citizens activism. These are strategic decisions taken at an entirely different level. "Citizens action initiative" = null and void for the elite.

You are simply dumb Alex. I read a lot of your posts and you are either trolling or are dumb and you cannot even realize that. I dont even get a lot of the time what you really mean.

As far as i know it really came from "the people" there was simply probably too much pressure for a longer time and the gov. simply had to react, so he told the bundesbank to react and it had to "somehow" react. But hey, they still didnt see their gold...

Your assumption that the whole thing is just a trick how to discredit the gold bugs doesnt really seem plausible to me, its just too much work and risk for what? Its simply not worth it. If you fail to see it, than sorry but as i said your are not really bright... Also the term you are using "the elite" seems to me indicate something about you and its not a nice thing. Didnt mean that offensively, im just saying.

[Mikcik]

just a dumb question but what about the private gold ( non-government ) groups ? how they affects the price ?

I am curious because I saw that advertise (sorry) btw, I have not connection at all with this particular website but they say "BullionVault . com is part-owned by the World Gold Council and is the world's largest online investment gold service. We take care of $2 billion for more than 50,000 users "

I dont understand your question, "the private groups, how do they affect the price" :-)?

Well the more i look into it, the more i belive there are 2 conspiracies, one on the part of gov. which really have problems with gold, but also on the part of the "gold sellers" which i really more and more belive have a strategy in promoting the "economic collapse" issue and "gold going to 15 000 USD per ounce" just to boost up sales. As far as i know, there gold organizations that have world scale to them, there are international conferences about the issue, so i really wouldnt be suprissed if the gold bugs (sellers etc.) would be over-blowing the importance of gold... There are "bitches" everywhere :-), its hard to tell who to belive, but as i said previously i like the "neutral" look which Jim Rogers and Marc Faber have on gold. Which is a possitive view, but really not a "golds going to 15000 oz" view...

Also i red somewhere that in 2011 i belive, anually, the gold demand consisted of around
40 % gold was for (non gov) investment
40 % gold was for rings, decoration, etc. "fancy stuff"
only 10% of gold was used in industry (? wow)
and only 10% of gold demand came from central banks...

so "private" demands affects the price hugelly (around 90%).

heres some other info: