[Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)

[twentyseventy]

Auto-EXCH is now enabled!

It's here! For real! Havelock officially debuted the Auto-EXCH functionality this evening and it is working like a charm! I even tested it out myself and received the shares immediately. It's supposed to do the exchange of shares in about a minute's time, so do give it a minute (literally) to see if it's been changed to MINE and SELL.

I do consider this fair grounds to implement the Management Fee at the next Period, as that was the original plan. And it was my constant and annoying urging that finally pushed them through to get it done . Arbitrageurs now have a way to take care of price discrepancies within 60 seconds - a big advantage to them, so I believe that more than makes up for the 2% additional charge on new sales of EXCH.

Happy trading!

[twentyseventy]

Period 7, Day 5 Report - April 10, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 615.45481723

Total Units: 7663

NAV/U: BTC 0.08031512


Here's yesterday's report - this week has been extremely busy which is an aberration for me. The report will be issued at normal time today; tomorrow's will be posted in the evening.

Don't forget - Auto-EXCH is now enabled! - Enjoy!

[junkonator]

Cool! Looking forward. Also I don't have to feel bad for getting you auto-work

[twentyseventy]

Period 7, Day 6 Report - April 11, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 612.71751824

Total Units: 7668

NAV/U: BTC 0.07990577


Don't forget - Auto-EXCH is now enabled! - Enjoy!

Cool! Looking forward. Also I don't have to feel bad for getting you auto-work

 

[twentyseventy]

Period 7, Day 7 Report - April 12, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 610.47169419

Total Units: 7679

NAV/U: BTC 0.07949885


Glad to see that the Auto-EXCH is being taken advantage of - over 500 shares sold after noon today!

[twentyseventy]

Period 7, Day 8 Report - April 13, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 657.24526428

Total Units: 8286

NAV/U: BTC 0.07931996

[twentyseventy]

Period 7, Day 9 Report - April 14, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 656.80188862

Total Units: 8322

NAV/U: BTC 0.07892356


Difficulty increase stalled there for a while and now it's back up - very interesting time for the network!

[twentyseventy]

Period 7, Day 10 Report - April 15, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 658.56460329

Total Units: 8385

NAV/U: BTC 0.07854079

[twentyseventy]

Period 7, Day 11 Report - April 16, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 658.08055050

Total Units: 8421

NAV/U: BTC 0.07814755


Difficulty increase is dipping again, so it looks like the Increase will happen tomorrow after 12PM. If that's the case, then the SELL Div will be issued Friday.

If the Increase happens tomorrow (Thursday) before 1030AM, the SELL/MINE dividends should be issued at 12PM as usual. In the case that it happen somewhere between 1030AM - 12PM (as it looks like it might), the dividends will be issued at 1PM most likely.

[twentyseventy]

Had a question today regarding buy-backs; wanted to copy it here in case anyone else has questions about it-

Currently, the fund will buy-back share pairs at NAV/U (net asset value per unit) less 2% (not plus 2%). The NAV/U is posted every day in the Bitcointalk thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430137.260). So, if you choose to initiate a buy-back before Noon, each share pair will be purchased for 0.07814755 * .98% = 0.07658459 per pair.

If you choose to initiate a buy-back after Noon tomorrow (all times ET), it will be processed at that Daily NAV/U less 2%. If the difficulty changes before Noon, and you do not initiate a buy-back before Noon, then your shares will be paid the MINE and SELL dividends and the NAV/U will fall accordingly.

If you do intend to initiate a buy-back, please let me know before 11AM if at all possible since I may have to do my report between 11AM and Noon tomorrow.

[twentyseventy]

B.MINE holders rejoice as block generations slow a bit, allowing one more day of divs at the current rate!  

Period 7, Day 12 Report - April 17, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 654.62053002

Total Units: 8421

NAV/U: BTC 0.07773667


EDIT: Updated the OP to show the Auto-EXCH functionality and to add the Management Fee verbiage. Mgmt fee begins on all sales of EXCH after tomorrow's Period Report and MINE/SELL Divs.

Thanks to everyone who waited it out for this functionality to be enabled, I've been very happy with it so far and I hope you have as well!

[eltopo]

B.MINE holders rejoice as block generations slow a bit, allowing one more day of divs at the current rate! 

I'm really wondering where those massive swings come from... +15 PH in a single day, and -15 PH the other day. That would be 15000 miners of the newest 1 TH generation hitting the network and then vanish again.... perhaps manufacturers "testing" their costumers hardware before shipping?

[twentyseventy]

I'm really wondering where those massive swings come from... +15 PH in a single day, and -15 PH the other day. That would be 15000 miners of the newest 1 TH generation hitting the network and then vanish again.... perhaps manufacturers "testing" their costumers hardware before shipping?

I've been pretty surprised to see the swings as well - I don't think anyone has come up with a great explanation for such a large swing besides new hardware manufacturers testing equipment (and luck of course). I certainly can't think of one.

[Xu]

The hash rate is computed based upon the daily average of found blocks and the current difficulty. It is not directly reported. So, the variance you see probably has more to do with the random luck of finding coins rather than the actual computing power of the network. So, if a bunch of blocks are found in a short period of time, the algorithm infers there was a large hash rate increase, even though the actual hash rate may have not changed. As the rate of finding blocks returns to normal, the inferred hash rate decreases. Since it is averaged over time, you see these relatively smooth rises and falls.

In short, the swings mean absolutely nothing other than pure variance. The longer term trend of course does indicate the increase in total network has rate.

[twentyseventy]

Period 7 End Report - April 18, 2014


Previous Units              5076
EXCH Sold                   3347
Less Buybacks              2
New Total Units            8421

Previous Balance          417.12539620
Price per EXCH             0.08299776
Gross Sales of EXCH      277.79350272

Less Fees                    1.11117401
Less Dividends              39.43174272
Less Buybacks              0.15969934
Net Balance                  654.21628285

End of Period 7 NAV/U     0.07768866

New Difficulty                  6,978,842,650
New Daily Dividend      0.00036030
New Reserve per Unit        0.07206000

NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.07768866 - 0.07206000 = 0.00562866

SELL Dividend                 0.00562866

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

New EXCH Sales Price          0.07422180


Upon doing my Period audit, I noticed that the Fund's actual balance (vs. calculated balance) was too high by 0.404xxx BTC. After much searching (and gnashing of teeth), I tracked the surplus back to 4/5, which was the day of the last Sell Div / Period Report. Apparently, when the EXCH ask was placed back up at the new price, a user purchased 22 EXCH for the old EXCH price of 0.1014464200 each instead of 0.0829977600 each, causing him to overpay by that amount.

I'm not sure how it was possible for him to purchase at the old (higher) price as I always take down the EXCH ask while doing the report; it may have something to do with the fact that he purchased at the exact second that I put up the new EXCH ask (good reflexes perhaps). I even checked my records and I did put up the EXCH at the new, lower EXCH amount.

I'll speak to Havelock about the issue. I should have caught the surplus on 4/6 when I did the daily report and I apologize for that; I do have a side-by-side column for each amount built in to the sheet, but it seems that was not paying enough attention to the digits past the period. Normally, I check down to the Satoshi. I've now built in a very obvious double-check to keep this from happening in the future.

Overall, This means that the NAV/U was (very) slightly over-reported for the Period; a negligible amount when spread over six to eight thousand shares. I was the only person to request a buy-back during the Period (for 2 shares), meaning that I was over-paid back 0.0001474641 BTC, for which I will reimburse the fund. The report above also takes into account the refund of the overpayment to the user that bought EXCH for the old price, as that should have not been possible and was not due to user or Issuer error.

[twentyseventy]

Period 8, Day 0 Report - April 18, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 603.78325069

Total Units: 8421

NAV/U: BTC 0.07169970

[twentyseventy]

The hash rate is computed based upon the daily average of found blocks and the current difficulty. It is not directly reported. So, the variance you see probably has more to do with the random luck of finding coins rather than the actual computing power of the network. So, if a bunch of blocks are found in a short period of time, the algorithm infers there was a large hash rate increase, even though the actual hash rate may have not changed. As the rate of finding blocks returns to normal, the inferred hash rate decreases. Since it is averaged over time, you see these relatively smooth rises and falls.

In short, the swings mean absolutely nothing other than pure variance. The longer term trend of course does indicate the increase in total network has rate.

Yes, that's what I meant when I was referring to 'luck' (miner's luck) in my previous post. eltopo and I are aware of how the network hashrate is estimated and that it could just be variance; to our eyes it looks like more than just miner's luck, but it's anyone guess!

[eltopo]

I know variance is a bitch, but really that much?! 

[twentyseventy]

Period 8, Day 1 Report - April 19, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 608.17861768

Total Units: 8524

NAV/U: BTC 0.07134896


From here on out the balance and NAV/U do take accumulated management fees into account. Today's report also reflects my refund of 0.00014747 BTC to the fund for the buy-back overpayment due to the slightly increased NAV/U for the last period (say that five times fast!).

[twentyseventy]

Period 8, Day 2 Report - April 20, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 610.58923837

Total Units: 8600

NAV/U: BTC 0.07099874