[Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)

[jjdub7]

The life is not static

P.S. Thank's to "jjdub7" and "ZephramC" for their interventions.
I had read their last posts and appreciate their intelligence

  gotta be careful with derivatives, both here and in the fiat markets.  they're a fast-paced game.

Edit: And yeah, that's part of it too is that you'll have to project out on the life of the asset as well.

[dyask]

Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.

[jjdub7]

Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.

Don't kid yourself...3 PH doesn't just disappear from the network, and there's more coming from wherever that last 20PH just jumped out.  More likely is a big operation took down part of their new farm for configuration before they jumped into round 2 here.

[twentyseventy]

Period 14, Day 2 Report - July 1, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 327.38472377

Total Units: 11101

NAV/U: BTC 0.02949146

[jjdub7]

Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.

Don't kid yourself...3 PH doesn't just disappear from the network, and there's more coming from wherever that last 20PH just jumped out.  More likely is a big operation took down part of their new farm for configuration before they jumped into round 2 here.

On second thought, I dunno...I figured we would have seen a recovery to the 125-140 PH/s range on the network by now.  Its entirely possible that the last increase was fueled by added equipment plus a luck boom, but still, idk, something doesn't feel right here.

[dyask]

Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.

Don't kid yourself...3 PH doesn't just disappear from the network, and there's more coming from wherever that last 20PH just jumped out.  More likely is a big operation took down part of their new farm for configuration before they jumped into round 2 here.

On second thought, I dunno...I figured we would have seen a recovery to the 125-140 PH/s range on the network by now.  Its entirely possible that the last increase was fueled by added equipment plus a luck boom, but still, idk, something doesn't feel right here.

Maybe it was burn-in by some ASIC manufacture.   I fully expect the ramp up to continue for a while yet.  But we should start to see more periods that are flatter.   The scale of bitcoin mining has gotten too large at some point it will start to be limited.   However it could be that we are long ways away from the peak mining level.

[Draino]

maybe the last difficulty jump was the deathblow for a bunch of older farms and they're being shut down

although asic "burn in" is probably more likely, the incentive is there to jack up the difficulty and suck up all the early adopter advantage before shipping

[twentyseventy]

Period 14, Day 3 Report - July 2, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 327.73035979

Total Units: 11168

NAV/U: BTC 0.02934548

I'll be traveling for the holiday weekend (July 4th in the US), so posts will probably come later in the day than normal. Dividends are prescheduled, so there shouldn't be any issue there.

[jjdub7]

Period 14, Day 3 Report - July 2, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 327.73035979

Total Units: 11168

NAV/U: BTC 0.02934548

I'll be traveling for the holiday weekend (July 4th in the US), so posts will probably come later in the day than normal. Dividends are prescheduled, so there shouldn't be any issue there.

2070 - if I remember correctly, there was a minimum difficulty bump in order for SELL to be paid.  It was around 6.5% the last time the topic was covered.  Is this a constant minimum percentage inherent to your model or does it change as we move between rounds?  Thanks as always, man.

[twentyseventy]

2070 - if I remember correctly, there was a minimum difficulty bump in order for SELL to be paid.  It was around 6.5% the last time the topic was covered.  Is this a constant minimum percentage inherent to your model or does it change as we move between rounds?  Thanks as always, man.

No problem - yes, this is a constant figure for any Period, not any specific one. It just has to do with the number of daily dividend payments made versus the number of days in the period.

Each day pays out 1 out of 200 Days worth of the dividend Reserve. 1 / 200 = .005 (or .5%).

13 Days of dividends = 13 * .5% = 6.5%. This seems to be the mathematical 'sweet spot' - just shy of 14 days, which is of course the 'Standard' Difficulty period time period (no increase/no decrease).

So, if you're paying out .5% per day, the difficulty needs to increase by at least .5% per day, otherwise the Reserve is decreasing faster than difficulty is increasing. Hope this helps-

[twentyseventy]

Period 14, Day 4 Report - July 3, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 331.98658776

Total Units: 11366

NAV/U: BTC 0.02920874

[twentyseventy]

Double-day combo report due to traveling this weekend. Happy 4th to my fellow US speculators, Happy Birthday America, Go Dawgs  

Period 14, Day 5 Report - July 4, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 333.10066808

Total Units: 11460

NAV/U: BTC 0.02906637


Period 14, Day 6 Report - July 5, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 334.32040775

Total Units: 11558

NAV/U: BTC 0.02892545

[twentyseventy]

Period 14, Day 7 Report - July 6, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 335.70506531

Total Units: 11662

NAV/U: BTC 0.02878623

[twentyseventy]

Period 14, Day 8 Report - July 7, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 335.51790152

Total Units: 11714

NAV/U: BTC 0.02864247

[cacalillos]

Hi, im trying to withdraw and i get this message:

Failed to withdraw Bitcoins. Site Operators have been notified of the issue.

Invalid Bitcoin address

I tried with other addresses and its the same.

Thanks!

Juan

[tucker19]

Anyone else having issues logging onto Havelock Investments? I am getting a CSRF Failure Error, I have contacted them about this but only got a "We are working on this issue. We will notify you when we have it resolved." email back.

[havelock]

Should be back up shortly.

[tucker19]

I teamviewed onto another computer and could login. I also did not receive a dividend today from the B.Mine even though it has been announced. Anyone get a dividend today?

[pabad812]

I teamviewed onto another computer and could login. I also did not receive a dividend today from the B.Mine even though it has been announced. Anyone get a dividend today?

I also did not get a dividend payment from B.MINE today 7/8/2014.

[twentyseventy]

Dividends were scheduled like normal for today; I'm just now able to log in (as I believe everyone else is as well finally).

I'm guessing the dividend script was taken offline, so dividends should hopefully be paid soon for today.

There were eight shares purchased today after noon which shouldn't receive the dividend but will; I'll cover these extra dividends out of my pocket.

I've removed the EXCH ask until the dividends are paid.