Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +98424 units

[Trofo]

Silly bet did not win, to be expected. But today we have a delectable game in both Manchesters. You all know the regular bet-against-City mantra, but I don't see why we can't put a highlight on today's United game.

100 units at Fairlay on Brighton to WIN vs Man Utd @6.45 is absolute bonkers value. Other odds: 5.90

That was easiest money this season for you. United was so bad that they wouldn't score even that one goal if Brighton defender wasn't inclined to help them.

Not looking like City is dropping points, West Ham was scared in first half and did not even try to bring the game to City.

[buwaytress]

^Didn't watch but yeah reports seem to suggest it was a stroll in the park. Seems Maguire even forgot which side of the tunnel to line up at pre match... seriously? Haha.

Anyway, Super Cup tonight is another fluff cup but 4 million prize money makes it worthwhile.

Shall we do a bet on Frankfurt to take the money?

100 units at Fairlay on Eintracht Frankfurt to WIN vs Real Madrid @7.60. Other odds: 7.40
Units advantage: 20

Running advantage after 4 bets: +20
All-time cumulative: +83,124
Running units after 3 bets (2W|1L): +1,475 (+545)

[Boristhecat]

-skip-
100 units at Fairlay on Eintracht Frankfurt to WIN vs Real Madrid @7.60. Other odds: 7.40
Units advantage: 20

Running advantage after 4 bets: +20
All-time cumulative: +83,124
Running units after 3 bets (2W|1L): +1,475 (+545)

I don't think the odds of 7.60 are too good for this game. Real will gladly win another title - in this game it will not lack motivation. In the official game, Bayern beat Frankfurt 6-1, I don't think Real is so weaker than Bayern to lose to Frankfurt in regular time. I would rather believe in a scoring draw like 2-2. Which by the way will be a big disappointment for both of us as I bet on Real to win in regular time with odds of 1.4.

[buwaytress]

Hey Boristhecat, thanks for your comment, and of course, almost every bet I make here is not the expected result, and I would never put a lot of money on it -- that is the whole point of squeezing value out though Sorry for both of us... HT 14/10 is bad for me I only take HT wins at above 15/10

Which brings us to City losing to AFC Bournemouth? Surely they win 1 out of 20 hames?

100 units at Sportsbet.io @38.40. Other odds: 35.70
Units advantage: 270

Running advantage after 5 bets: +270
All-time cumulative: +83,394
Running units after 4 bets (2W|2L): +1,375 (-100)

[Boristhecat]

Hey Boristhecat, thanks for your comment, and of course, almost every bet I make here is not the expected result, and I would never put a lot of money on it -- that is the whole point of squeezing value out though Sorry for both of us... HT 14/10 is bad for me I only take HT wins at above 15/10

Which brings us to City losing to AFC Bournemouth? Surely they win 1 out of 20 hames?

100 units at Sportsbet.io @38.40. Other odds: 35.70
Units advantage: 270

Running advantage after 5 bets: +270
All-time cumulative: +83,394
Running units after 4 bets (2W|2L): +1,375 (-100)

Yes, I understand the meaning of distance betting. In any case, betting is a conversation about a distance, no matter what the odds are 1.1 or 20 and not about a one-time event that you have to guess. By the way, why more than 1.5? Due to bonuses/insurance (if I remember correctly, the bonus increase in multibet odds, etc., starts from this number).

The odds 38 look absolutely insane (like City are already leading 3-0 hahaha). And another thing that caught my attention is the odds that Haaland will score a goal today 1.22 - if i could bet on the opposite event, I would do it.

[Trofo]

. And another thing that caught my attention is the odds that Haaland will score a goal today 1.22 - if i could bet on the opposite event, I would do it.

You can on some bookies, I did not use it for quite long so I am not sure anymore but I belive betfair had that option. Buwytress will probably be able to confirm. Memory is not what it was 

That option is called lay betting and can come quite handy, as it would for you today.

I used to bet against couple of favorits. For instance City, Barca and Inter today. If anybody doesn't win my bet is winning. That sort of thing.

[buwaytress]

^^ Betfair and fairlay yeah, they're effectively p2p markets, so if the offer's up, you can take it but if there's none, you're free to offer your own odds too. Think of it like a conventional exchange, but with bets instead of crypto up for offer.

I definitely did a lot of Betfair pre-Bitcoin, and I definitely look to go against 1.01-1.2 odds or so, it's pretty crazy some of the long odds esp on p2p.

And yeah 1.5 is just a limit for myself because of boosts and bonuses. Percentage wise, you can't squeeze much out of 1.1 (boosts are on prices not stake) unless you can find 10% boost.

 And in particular, Sportsbet and Fortunejack free insurances are for 1.5. Stake too IIRC although they generally offer 1.3 limit but switch it out for other increases.

United are no longer good value on their next game against Liverpool, and I actually missed putting yesterday's bet down here (Almeria HT lead vs Real Madrid). Because Real Madrid, you know, loves a comeback.

I'll post one in a few days, going to be another stretch of busy...

[Boristhecat]

. And another thing that caught my attention is the odds that Haaland will score a goal today 1.22 - if i could bet on the opposite event, I would do it.

You can on some bookies, I did not use it for quite long so I am not sure anymore but I belive betfair had that option. Buwytress will probably be able to confirm. Memory is not what it was 

That option is called lay betting and can come quite handy, as it would for you today.

I used to bet against couple of favorits. For instance City, Barca and Inter today. If anybody doesn't win my bet is winning. That sort of thing.

Due to the country of residence, it is quite problematic for me to use fiat bookmakers, maybe I will try to understand p2p crypto markets because betting against such crazy odds (like that Haaland will score a goal = 1.22) looks like too profitable. I would like to see the emotions of people who bet on Haaland and with Manchester City's 4-0 victory they still lost ) Such bets are even worse than betting on winning a Formula 1 race with odds of 1.5-1.6.

And yeah 1.5 is just a limit for myself because of boosts and bonuses. Percentage wise, you can't squeeze much out of 1.1 (boosts are on prices not stake) unless you can find 10% boost.

 And in particular, Sportsbet and Fortunejack free insurances are for 1.5. Stake too IIRC although they generally offer 1.3 limit but switch it out for other increases.

Interesting. In fact, we have a situation where, at odds of >1.5, there is a sharp increase in the value/effectiveness of the bet. I'm trying to understand at whose expense this is happening. The margin of the bookmakers is already quite small, therefore, it should not decrease sharply. I'll try to check the math of these actions a little later.

[buwaytress]

^ Yeah, check out p2p, there are many others and I believe even on non-Bitcoin platforms there are wider options (but not deep liquidity).

Simple guy that I am, I see Spurs could have a tiny chance of losing their way without Conte on the touchline? Who knows? Game in 30.

100 units at Sportsbet.io on Wolves to WIN vs Spurs @8.70. Other odds: 8.10
Units advantage: 60

Running advantage after 6 bets: +330 (+60)
All-time cumulative: +83,454
Running units after 5 bets (2W|3L): +1,275 (-100)

[Trofo]

Simple guy that I am, I see Spurs could have a tiny chance of losing their way without Conte on the touchline? Who knows? Game in 30.

Not your day so far and Conte was on touchline with players. Not sure how it works with manager bans, did he even got red card in last game? I sow the incident but did not see if they got carded after that.

First game on my ticket passed with this hard fought Spurs victory, 5 more to go today. Now it becomes time for some both to score games.

[Boristhecat]

Not your day so far and Conte was on touchline with players. Not sure how it works with manager bans, did he even got red card in last game? I sow the incident but did not see if they got carded after that.

First game on my ticket passed with this hard fought Spurs victory, 5 more to go today. Now it becomes time for some both to score games.

It looks like they both got red cards after the skirmish at the end of the game. But the punishment in the form of a ban was imposed later after the consideration of the case by the football association of England. It is interesting that Tuchel is found to be the main culprit and will pay a fine of 35 thousand pounds, and Conte only 15 thousand pounds. I don't know if this was the reason, but today's game turned out to be unexpectedly difficult for Tottenham.

[buwaytress]

Not your day so far and Conte was on touchline with players. Not sure how it works with manager bans, did he even got red card in last game? I sow the incident but did not see if they got carded after that.

First game on my ticket passed with this hard fought Spurs victory, 5 more to go today. Now it becomes time for some both to score games.

It looks like they both got red cards after the skirmish at the end of the game. But the punishment in the form of a ban was imposed later after the consideration of the case by the football association of England. It is interesting that Tuchel is found to be the main culprit and will pay a fine of 35 thousand pounds, and Conte only 15 thousand pounds. I don't know if this was the reason, but today's game turned out to be unexpectedly difficult for Tottenham.

Yeah cause apparently Tuchel was the one who clenched at Conte's hand when they "shook"... not that I paid much attention. They both got red carded, that's what the reports I remember reading said, so assumed they'd both be banned, so I guess I don't know the rules so much, if Conte was with the players.

Shouldn't have assumed.

BTW I was toying with Werder Bremen, but decided against it only because 8/1 odds didn't come. Shame!

[buwaytress]

Simple me again goes for an upset, Chelsea are too good probably but I just have a feeling Leeds are still primed and energetic enough in early season to take the game to the Blues, who're without Kante.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds to WIN vs Chelsea @6.39. Other odds: 5.90
Units advantage: 49

Running advantage after 7 bets: +379 (+49)
All-time cumulative: +83,503
Running units after 6 bets (2W|4L): +1,175 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Well, that went well! Leeds definitely deserved the lead at half time, great showing all around, but were probably lucky to score with their sole effort in the second half after a Blues onslaught.

I'll regret this later, but boosted by this win, let's go for another win in tonight's 2 games involving defending champions.

100 units at Fairlay on Newcastle to WIN vs City @8.35. Other odds: 7.20
100 units at Fairlay on Bochum to WIN vs Bayern @13.00. Other odds: 12.50
Total units advantage: 165

Running advantage after 9 bets: +544 (+165)
All-time cumulative: +83,668
Running units after 7 bets (3W|4L): +1,714 (+539)

[buwaytress]

Yup, I did regret it, but Newcastle really did almost take me home? Maybe next time I go for HT wins again, since City is City!

Small punt today but I've got an eye on some Europa League business...

100 units at Sportsbet on Austria Wien to WIN vs Fenerbahce @7.60. Other odds: 7.10
Units advantage: 50
Bet ID: 6307646bbce7658c57d44714

Running advantage after 10 bets: +594 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +83,718
Running units after 9 bets (3W|6L): +1,514 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Far from hitting, disappointing pick. Didn't even get the upsets competition right as more upsets happened in EFL trophy (Fulham I recall was the highest).

Still, be glad I didn't waste money on Palace last night, thought I'd missed an opp at HT but City as usual...

Instead, let's look to topple PSG, they look scary but Monaco always has a chance I feel.

100 units at Fairlay on Monaco to WIN vs PSG @11.95. Other odds: 10.80
Units advantage: 115

Running advantage after 11 bets: +709 (+115)
All-time cumulative: +83,833
Running units after 10 bets (3W|7L): +1,414 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Monaco, really, they should have won. Right. So my last two bets against Chelsea have been hugely successful, Leeds and then Southampton just nicking points off an absolutely dire Chelsea... so I might as well jinx it by putting them on this tip thread. Hammers have to find a way to win, and there's no better time to pick than now.

Liverpool, on the other hand, asking too much to put them on an acca?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham, Liverpool to WIN @9.20. Other odds: 8.90
Units advantage: 30

Running advantage after 12 bets: +739 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +83,863
Running units after 11 bets (3W|8L): +1,314 (-100)

[KTChampions]

~
Liverpool, on the other hand, asking too much to put them on an acca?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham, Liverpool to WIN @9.20. Other odds: 8.90
Units advantage: 30

Running advantage after 12 bets: +739 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +83,863
Running units after 11 bets (3W|8L): +1,314 (-100)

It's none of my business  but you're definitely biased (in a good way) about Liverpool. It seems to me that now it is worth either betting on its rivals or avoid betting in games with its participation - a large dispersion of results, so only bets on large odds (underdogs) will have a chance to be profitable.

By the way i saw your post about Union Berlin vs Bayern. Look at this:



  It looks like these teams have let us both down.

[buwaytress]

^ I know man, life in football is about getting let down. Get used to it, smile, and be happy, right? Haha.

So many good odds tonight, and I guess I might as well throw money away?

100 units at Fairlay on Celtic to WIN vs Real Madrid @5.58. Other odds: 4.80

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla to WIN vs City @10.46. Other odds: 9.80

100 units at Sportsbet on Zagreb to WIN vs Chelsea @8.20. Other odds: You can boost at SB to get 8.60

Units advantage: 78+66-40 = 104

Running advantage after 15 bets: +843 (+104)
All-time cumulative: +83,967
Running units after 12 bets (3W|9L): +1,214 (-100)

[KTChampions]

100 units at Sportsbet on Zagreb to WIN vs Chelsea @8.20. Other odds: You can boost at SB to get 8.60

Congratulations on another win! This season is off to a great start for you.
And I got another ruined multibet on the very first event - this trend is starting to press me  Probably soon I will be able to charge a fee so that, at the request of the haters, I add certain teams to my multibets, hahaha.
Let's see how the rest of the favorites perform (I reentered in multibet, of course, with the exception of Borussia).