Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

Well, who would have thought VVD would be ill, and Henderson would play CB? We could still have won 2-0 if we started with Mane and Firmino early, but anyway, this just means I'm doubling down on Liverpool at the final.

May not be betting over next few days, won't really have a proper time to compare and calculate, but let's see shall we?

Simple EPL parlay for Saturday. I like Palace and they deserved to have won, Newcastle on the other hand, have been way too lucky. The tables have to turn. Wolves too, the loss was tough after stringing together an unbeaten run but they'll get back to winning ways with Jimenez sure to get on the scoresheet again.

Game 1: Newcastle United-Crystal Palace. Palace WIN @3.27. Sportsbet odds: 3.20
Game 2: Norwich City-Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @1.97. Sportsbet odds: 1.94
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.4419. Sportsbet parlay: 6.208

Odds advantage: 3.77%
Units advantage: 23.39

Running advantage after 202 bets: +1,276.06 (+23.39)
All-time cumulative: +23,276.49
Running units after 201 bets (36W|165L): +9,457.88 (-100 units)

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[buwaytress]

Don't have a very good connection atm, and don't really have the comfort right now to research a proper parlay but let's just do the usual "bet every long odd game against City" selection today shall we? I actually feel today is no lose situation. Draw and both our rivals drop points. Foxes lose and we put more distance between us and 2nd. City lose and we see 17 points difference potentially! Amazing

100 units on Leicester City to WIN vs Manchester City @8.11. Betcoin odds: 7.45

Odds advantage: 8.86%
Units advantage: 66

Running advantage after 203 bets: +1,342.06 (+66)
All-time cumulative: +23,342.49
Running units after 201 bets (36W|165L): +9,357.88 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Didn't watch any of it now but I can't believe how Newcastle still manages to pull out those wins. Maybe guys like Steve Bruce do have a place in the EPL after all. And guys like Mike Ashley will always be glad for that. Be miserly with the purse strings, ensure you find a footing mid table and find a manager who can squeeze wins out of teams like that. Damn.

And Leicester wow, totally outplayed from the stats. Anyway.

Watford, ready to spring a surprise? Spurs, ready for Mourinho to exact his revenge?

Game 1: Watford vs Man Utd. Watford WIN @5.07. Betcoin odds: 4.84
Game 2: Spurs vs Chelsea. Spurs WIN @2.34. Betcoin odds: 2.36
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @11.86. Betcoin parlay: 11.4224
Bet ID: 5dff284a3ae32d34715de5ae

Odds advantage: 3.83%
Units advantage: 43.76

Running advantage after 204 bets: +1,385.82 (+43.76)
All-time cumulative: +23,386.25
Running units after 203 bets (36W|167L): +9,157.88 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Sorry for the long break but I've been away and rather unable to properly bet. But good news today is we're back on boxing day to kick off an entire week of football-filled joy.

Watford won us the first leg of that incredible parlay, but Mou failed to continue his streak vs former clubs and who could have known Willian would be supremely good in his return? Lost our parlay but happy to get the underdog right.

Shall we see what a similar underdog parlayed with Liverpool at amazing 2/1 value will bring?

Game 1: Chelsea vs Southampton. Saints WIN @8.37. Sportsbet odds: 8.20
Game 2: Leicester City vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.09. Sportsbet odds: 2.06
100 units parlay at Betcoin @17.4933. Sportsbet  parlay: 16.892.

Odds advantage: 3.39%
Units advantage: 60.13

Game 1: Sheffield Utd vs Watford. Watford WIN @4.75. Betcoin odds: 4.40
Game 2: Leicester City vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.06. Betcoin odds: 2.09
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @9.79. Betcoin parlay: 9.196
BET ID: 5e0103ec9869738191cc2543

Odds advantage: 6.46%
Units advantage: 59.4

Running advantage after 206 bets: +1,505.35 (+119.53)
All-time cumulative: +23,505.88
Running units after 204 bets (36W|168L): +9,057.88 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Well, Watford almost did it at the death, didn't they? And Deulofeu is really beginning to shine even more than he usually does. I mean, the way he plays down that wing at times, and then switching and being able to score that goal? Deserves it, that kid.

But how about Southampton showing the big boys (or the kids at Chelski) how it's done eh? Massive win for us, and good ol' Liverpool to make sure our parlay doubles its value.

Anyway, in keeping with the December promise, we bet against City and Wolves at over 8/1? That's good value to me for a team that actually beat City at Etihad!

100 units at Fairlay on Wolves to WIN vs Man City @8.161. Sportsbet odds: 7.40

Odds advantage: 6.46%
Units advantage: 76.1

Running advantage after 207 bets: +1,581.45 (+76.1)
All-time cumulative: +23,581.98
Running units after 206 bets (37W|169L): +10,607.21 (+1549.33 units)

[buwaytress]

Football is round, they say. The underdogs go down 2-0 to the defending champions, would you expect a 3-2 comeback? Wonder what the odds were on Wolves to win when they were chasing the deficit, even if I rarely bet live, with 60+% possession and the extra man advantage, I'm surprised the win didn't have a bigger margin!

Anyway, huge win and we break our record for a season gain, but we go again of course;)

I really like the Saints but I can't ignore how good Palace are so an upset away, coupled with the Foxes bouncing back from their back-to-back defeats to the defending Champions leaders.

Game 1: Southampton vs Crystal Palace. Palace WIN @3.94. Betcoin odds: 3.81
Game 2: West Ham vs Leicester. Foxes WIN @1.94. Betcoin odds: 1.95
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @7.64. Betcoin parlay: 7.43
Bet ID: 5e072904986973f18ccc75f9

Odds advantage: 2.83%
Units advantage: 21

Running advantage after 208 bets: +1,602.45 (+21)
All-time cumulative: +23,602.98
Running units after 207 bets (37W|170L): +11,323.31 (+716.1 units)

[buwaytress]

We were almost there, weren't we? Palace actually led, and weathered the Saints storm but eventually it was a well-deserved point, Danny Ings is impossible to stop these days, so proud of him.

Anyway, we caught a really good odds single on Sheffield United to day to pour more misery onto City. After the Wolves loss, bookies adjusted City down a lot, but good for us. Gotta keep your eyes on Fairlay for the bets, as it's mainly p2p, people do adjust a bit slower there.

100 units on Blades to WIN at City @15.542. Bitcoinrush odds: 11.59

Odds advantage: 34.09%
Units advantage: 395.2

Let's also add a parlay on Gerrard and co in the Old Firm derby, have Liverpool try and get ahead against a difficult opponent, and sort of try hedge the Blades bet in case City get some revenge and then some:
Game 1: Celtic vs Rangers. Rangers WIN @3.62. Betcoin odds: 3.43
Game 2: Liverpool vs Wolves. Liverpool WIN at HT @1.80. Betcoin odds: 1.81
Game 3: City vs Sheffield. Over 2.5 goals @1.51. Betcoin odds: 1.52
100 units parlay at Sportsbets.io @9.84. Betcoin parlay: 9.4366
Bet ID: 5e0894b3f3240e03bf9f02ba

Odds advantage: 4.27%
Units advantage: 40.34

Running advantage after 210 bets: +2,037.99 (+435.54)
All-time cumulative: +24,038.52
Running units after 208 bets (38W|170L): +11,223.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Tough luck on City, the first game with less than 2.5 goals they've had since losing to Wolves actually haha. Anyway, as promised, we continue to back the underdog against City. Who knows? Everton say they're ready to rumble, they got a new boss who relishes City and Liverpool. And we took a really good odds against City too! Check back later to see if I want to do an EPL parlay. Delicious NY day games!

So without further ado:
100 units at Fairlay on Everton to WIN vs Manchester City @15.052. Betcoin odds: 9.82

Odds advantage: 53.28%
Units advantage: 523.2

Running advantage after 211 bets: +2,561.19 (+523.2)
All-time cumulative: +24,561.72
Running units after 210 bets (38W|172L): +11,023.31 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Yikes Everton. Then again, was right on the money about Claudio Bravo not as able, it was his mistake that directly led to Richarlison's goal. Anyway, this just means a City loss is only a couple of games or so away haha (1 in every 5 so far!).

Back to a parlay today, thin selections but let's take a risk:

Game 1: Al Ahli vs Al Arabi. Al Ahli WIN @2.48. Betcoin odds: 2.36
Game 2: Derby vs Barnsley. Over 0.5 Goals at HT @1.38. Betcoin odds: 1.38
Game 3: Swansea vs Charlton. Over 0.5 Goals at HT @1.33. Betcoin odds: 1.34
Game 4: Liverpool vs Sheffield. Liverpool HT WIN @1.77. Betcoin odds: 1.79
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @8.06. Betcoin parlay: 7.8117
Bet ID: 5e0dc59bcdc6f1df4a230466

Odds advantage: 3.18%
Units advantage: 25.83

Running advantage after 212 bets: +2,587.02 (+25.83)
All-time cumulative: +24,587.55
Running units after 211 bets (38W|173L): +10,923.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Everything but the first leg, which we lost 0-3 haha. Thought Qatar's oldest football club might want to start the year with a bang, but instead gifted their opponents a first in since November. Some stories you can't make up I guess. Even Rooney's last min 1st half assist couldn't help!

Anyway, we turn to La Liga, an upset from Leganes and an expected but tight victory for Sevilla.

Game 1: Sevilla-Athletic Bilbao. Sevilla WIN @1.69. Sportsbet odds: 1.66
Game 2: Real Valladolid-Leganes. Leganes WIN @3.18. Sportsbet odds: 3.12
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.3742. Sportsbet parlay: 5.1792

Odds advantage: 3.77%
Units advantage: 19.5

Running advantage after 213 bets: +2,606.52 (+19.5)
All-time cumulative: +24,607.05
Running units after 212 bets (38W|174L): +10,823.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Leganes almost won, but almost doesn't count. Sevilla anyway almost lost too, they had the own goal to thank for the point. Looks like La Liga boys just needed a couple more days to wake up from their winter slumber. Wonder if the English will have the same after they get their holidays in.

Anyway, FA Cup, lots of games and I'm considering a few upsets or parlays, so maybe will update this thread every so often as and when and if odds spike. Newcastle never made it out of this round but I have a good feels about them this time... or do I? And maybe with 2nd-string teams, some of the big boys might make shock exits?

So a parlay today is necessary, but to settle tomorrow with the Merseyside derby.

Game 1: Rochdale vs Newcastle. Newcastle WIN @1.78. Betcoin odds: 1.72
Game 2: Fulham vs Aston Villa. Villa WIN @3.41. Betcoin odds: 3.23
Game 3: Liverpool vs Everton. Liverpool WIN @2.10. Betcoin odds: 2.17
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @12.75. Betcoin parlay: 12.06

Odds advantage: 3.77%
Units advantage: 69

Running advantage after 214 bets: +2,675.52 (+69)
All-time cumulative: +24,676.05
Running units after 213 bets (38W|175L): +10,723.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Well THAT totally settled before Liverpool's FA Cup derby, haha!

Liverpool not the favourites today, but that's because we're fielding young ones, but heck they're hungry, we'll win!
Game 1: Liverpool vs Everton. Liverpool WIN @2.76. Sportsbet: 2.70
Game 2:  Crystal Palace-Derby County. Palace WIN @1.77. Sportsbet odds: 1.75
Game 3: Gillingham FC-West Ham United. West Ham WIN @1.54. Sportsbet odds: 1.52
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.5232. Sportsbet parlay: 7.182

Odds advantage: 4.75%
Units advantage: 34.12

Running advantage after 215 bets: +2,709.64 (+34.12)
All-time cumulative: +24,710.17
Running units after 214 bets (38W|176L): +10,623.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Funny night, we had to screw ourselves with Palace of course, didn't we? Consolation I suppose is that we didn't pick Spurs who only managed to draw with good old Boro.

At this rate, better off just parlaying Liverpool wins, no matter the competition;)

But let's see. Arsenal Leeds is smelling like an upset, but in any case, Arsenal should win the first half, so let's parlay that with an Inter win at Napoli tonight.

Game 1: Arsenal vs Leeds. Arsenal WIN HT @1.90. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 2: Napoli vs Inter Milan. Inter WIN @2.65. Betcoin odds: 2.64
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @5.04. Betcoin parlay: 4.9632
Bet ID: 5e12e7f13ae32d2de65f33b3

Odds advantage: 1.55%
Units advantage: 7.68

Running advantage after 216 bets: +2,717.32 (+7.68)
All-time cumulative: +24,717.85
Running units after 215 bets (38W|177L): +10,523.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Oh damn me. Arsenal did win, but they laboured in the first half and probably should have been a goal down at least at HT. Should have made a FT bet, but the 1.9x odds made me blink I guess. Lukaku doing himself justice in Serie A though, I think we can safely say goodbye to Napoli's bid this season. They are not coming back from this loss.

Parlay on cup games is the call of the day. This time, United only 4/1 to beat City? I took it at 10/1 but this is poor value so the Sky Blues get my pick today.

Game 1: Newport County AFC-Milton Keynes Dons. MK Dons WIN @2.44. Sportsbet odds: 2.38
Game 2: Manchester United-Manchester City. City WIN @1.65. Sportbet odds: 1.64
Game 3: Stade De Reims-RC Strasbourg Alsace. Reims WIN @2.29. Sportsbet odds: 2.30
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.2195. Sportsbet parlay: 8.9773

Odds advantage: 2.70%
Units advantage: 24.22

Running advantage after 217 bets: +2,741.54 (+24.22)
All-time cumulative: +24,742.07
Running units after 216 bets (38W|178L): +10,423.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

I got this so wrong. City, as expected, coasted through, but MK Dons were 3-0 down at half time and just never found a way back. Reims did progress, but they needed penalties to decide the tie.

My simple parlay today, Leicester to win the first leg (and please, progress cause only you got a hope of defeating City at the final). And then a Valencia upset to pour water on Real Madrid.

Game 1: Leicester vs Villa. Leicester WIN @1.75. Betcoin odds: 1.78
Game 2: Valencia vs Real Madrid. Valencia WIN @4.10. Betcoin odds: 3.95
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @7.18. Betcoin parlay: 7.031
Bet ID: 5e1588819869733473cd827e

Odds advantage: 2.12%
Units advantage: 14.9

Running advantage after 218 bets: +2,756.44 (+14.9)
All-time cumulative: +24,756.97
Running units after 217 bets (38W|179L): +10,323.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Valencia did end up surprising everyone, but not in the manner I had hoped for. Crazy how disjointed teams look after winter break, and then in cup games too. Leicester even had to labour for the draw. Please let it be Leicester and United through to the finals =p You want another winner's medal, don't you Vardy?

My first bet in a long time against Barca (no need to ask when the last time was haha cough Anfield)

Game 1: Barcelona-Atletico Madrid. Atleti WIN @4.08. Sportsbet odds: 3.91
Game 2: Torino-Genoa. Torino WIN @1.63. Sportsbet odds: 1.60
Game 3: Sweden-Moldova. Sweden WIN @1.31. Sportsbet odds: 1.31
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.7120. Sportsbet parlay: 8.1953

Odds advantage: 6.30%
Units advantage: 51.67

Running advantage after 219 bets: +2,808.11 (+51.67)
All-time cumulative: +24,808.64
Running units after 218 bets (38W|180L): +10,223.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

That was pretty dumb. Torino actually had to fight pretty hard to get the draw, and then they tired themselves out to go through with extra time. All that Atletico drama to win for nothing, but that's how parlays go, isn't it?

OK, now let's put this super underdog bet in the Dutch 2nd-tier league. Now Graafschap are 3rd and have only lost once all season so far, but the youth from Utrecht actually should be higher up the table, and will be desperate to get into positive goal margin so they will want to go for the throats!

100 units at Betcoin on Jong Utrecht to WIN vs Graafschap @16.34. Sportsbet odds: 14.88

Odds advantage: 9.81%
Units advantage: 146 units

Running advantage after 220 bets: +2,954.11 (+146)
All-time cumulative: +24,954.64
Running units after 219 bets (38W|181L): +10,123.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Goddamn it we were almost there! Leading for most of the game, then conceding, and still with plenty of chances but the last-gasp goal from the favorites boo.

EPL today have quite a few people looking like they'll cause upsets, but let's have a wait for lineups. I'm going to start, however, with Arsenal to fall to Palace. Lost a lot of bets on Palace but they keep playing well and they'll get a famous win. Parlay with Liverpool, shall we?

Game 1: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal. Palace WIN @4.12. Sportsbet odds: 4.08
Game 2: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.71. Sportsbet odds: 1.70
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.0452. Sportsbet parlay: 6.936

Odds advantage: 1.57%
Units advantage: 10.92 units

Running advantage after 221 bets: +2,965.03 (+10.92)
All-time cumulative: +24,965.56
Running units after 220 bets (38W|182L): +10,023.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

OK big ouch as our profits took a hit from 11k to now below 10k, but hey, we know streaks like these happen when we go big. Liverpool won last night, for example, but Palace for some reason couldn't overcome Arsenal's ten men.

I know I only promised bets against City in December but with Aston Villa ravaged by injury, could we perhaps see a different reaction from hungry second-stringers and a City confused by youth?

100 units at Sportsbet on Aston Villa to WIN vs Manchester City @14.91. Betcoin odds: 14.30
Bet ID: 5e1873949dcc2821c15d235e

Damn Villa got hammered. Shall we quickly double down on another underdog? Former greats Monaco maybe to win?
100 units at Fairlay on Monaco to WIN vs PSG @10.91. Betcoin odds: 9.80.

I'll do the numbers in the morning!

Odds advantage: 4.27%
Units advantage: 61 units

Running advantage after 222 bets: +3,026.03 (+61)
All-time cumulative: +25,026.56
Running units after 221 bets (38W|183L): +9,923.31 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Christ bloody hell. Emotional bet on Monaco didn't pan out, but got to say, PSG were super lucky to clamber themselves out of that one. Their first draw of the season but Monaco probably just about deserved to have won that. Also, had no idea Islam Slimani was loaned out to Monaco. What about that third goal to equalise eh?

Israel's unbeaten look like the only "sure" thing today though value's not so great. Parlay this with an upset in Ligue 2
Game 1: MAccabi Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem. Tel Aviv WIN @1.81. Betcoin odds: 1.82
Game 2: Lorient vs Caen. Caen WIN @6.14 Betcoin odds: 6.00
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @11.11. Betcoin parlay: 10.92
Bet ID: 5e1c88a7cfd707cc206a8117

Odds advantage: 1.74%
Units advantage: 19 units

Running advantage after 224 bets: +3,046.03 (+19)
All-time cumulative: +25,045.56
Running units after 223 bets (38W|185L): +9,723.31 (-200 units)