Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

Yeah, Vardy and co let me down, KdB showed up. No more Haaland again tonight, I'm boring, so Sevilla win in final group game? Pep suggests he's rotating...

Was hoping to see better odds elsewhere against Real or Ajax but no 10/1 specials...

100 units at Fairlay on Sevilla to WIN vs City @14.43. Other odds: 14.10
Units advantage: 33

Running advantage after 34 bets: +2495 (+64)
All-time cumulative: +86,109
Running units after 33 bets (6W|27L): +1746 (-100)

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[buwaytress]

Giving some love to this thread, perhaps Real can do Barca a favour by losing again? I remember Cadiz doing rather well vs the big 2 last season... Caught it at really good value too.

100 units at Fairlay on Cadiz to WIN vs Real Madrid @24.6. Other odds: 19.00
Units advantage: 546

Running advantage after 35 bets: +3041 (+546)
All-time cumulative: +86,655
Running units after 34 bets (6W|28L): +1646 (-100)

[buwaytress]

I know I'm late, match has already started, but I already had this post ready, just forgot that the match starts so early, so allow me to put this in, won't you guys? Not like City won't win this anyway, right? haha.

100 units at Fairlay on Brentford to WIN vs City @19.00. Other odds at the time 15.0! (Note HT odds is still 19/1 Brentford, so consider this accurate).

Edit: Can't believe it's actually HT with Brentford allowing in a goal finally. Let's add a nice small live hedge here on a draw, shall we?
100 units at Sportsbet on draw @4.74. Other odds: 4.40

Units advantage: 400+34

Running advantage after 37 bets: +3475 (+434)
All-time cumulative: +87,089
Running units after 35 bets (6W|29L): +1546 (-100)

[Boristhecat]

I know I'm late, match has already started, but I already had this post ready, just forgot that the match starts so early, so allow me to put this in, won't you guys? Not like City won't win this anyway, right? haha.

100 units at Fairlay on Brentford to WIN vs City @19.00. Other odds at the time 15.0! (Note HT odds is still 19/1 Brentford, so consider this accurate).

Edit: Can't believe it's actually HT with Brentford allowing in a goal finally. Let's add a nice small live hedge here on a draw, shall we?
100 units at Sportsbet on draw @4.74. Other odds: 4.40

Units advantage: 400+34

Wow ) Probably no one expected that Manchester City would actually lose this game (even the referee who probably added so much time for Manchester City to win and not lose hahaha), but it happened.
Taking into account the fact that you spent money on hedging, did the final winnings turn out to be x18? This is really a minor loss relative to x19. At what minute of the game did you hedge?

[buwaytress]

Wow ) Probably no one expected that Manchester City would actually lose this game (even the referee who probably added so much time for Manchester City to win and not lose hahaha), but it happened.
Taking into account the fact that you spent money on hedging, did the final winnings turn out to be x18? This is really a minor loss relative to x19. At what minute of the game did you hedge?

Haha, yeah, but almost every win I have in this thread is unexpected, hence the longshot odds... but proving that season after season, you cannot ignore the value of such odds. TBF I thought it'd be longer than 10 mins injury time as Laporte was treated for 8 or 9 minutes, and normally you have min 3 mins injury time anyway.

I hedged 100 units so yes, it is as if it was x18, which means profit will only be 17x (as you'll notice I only add profit minus wager when I win). But it was a good hedge as I noticed Brentford actually played really well, and it was Half Time odds (as I noted in the bet itself). So I would have made profit even if Toney didn't score in the end, but happy I did as draw odds were going down actually as soon as second half started.

I'll update totals next time I put my bet here, thanks for following

[Boristhecat]

Wow ) Probably no one expected that Manchester City would actually lose this game (even the referee who probably added so much time for Manchester City to win and not lose hahaha), but it happened.
Taking into account the fact that you spent money on hedging, did the final winnings turn out to be x18? This is really a minor loss relative to x19. At what minute of the game did you hedge?

Haha, yeah, but almost every win I have in this thread is unexpected, hence the longshot odds... but proving that season after season, you cannot ignore the value of such odds. TBF I thought it'd be longer than 10 mins injury time as Laporte was treated for 8 or 9 minutes, and normally you have min 3 mins injury time anyway.

I hedged 100 units so yes, it is as if it was x18, which means profit will only be 17x (as you'll notice I only add profit minus wager when I win). But it was a good hedge as I noticed Brentford actually played really well, and it was Half Time odds (as I noted in the bet itself). So I would have made profit even if Toney didn't score in the end, but happy I did as draw odds were going down actually as soon as second half started.

I'll update totals next time I put my bet here, thanks for following

Oh, I completely forgot about the fact that the return of the bet is included in the coefficient, but at such a large coefficient my error is small )
What are your plans for the World Cup? It seems to me that there is a high randomness and betting on outsiders that you love so much will often work. When teams from different regions of the world play, which rarely meet with each other, it seems to me that even with all the analytical power of bookmakers it is difficult to predict the result with high accuracy.

[buwaytress]

I know it's been such a long time since I updated this (well, 4 months is long enough) but real life has become such a nuisance I've really not been able to make proper bets the way I would have liked for this thread. Nevertheless, I intend to do my best to get this up back and running.

So we start with Euros (terrible choice?) but if you've been following this then you know my predilections for teams from Caucascus and "Asia" who somehow play in UEFA.

Slovenia is just about finishing the match to beat Kazakhstan, which is normally a bet I'd take but they were at only 3/1 if I recall, so we escaped that loss.

Tomorrow, however, I got eyes on Azerbaijan, who'll do all they can to upset Austria.

100 units on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Austria @12.55 on Sportsbet. Other odds: 11.5
Bet ID: 641b644369eea000018c4f93
Units advantage: 105


Also, finally updating the totals here. We had a great Brentford win vs City (+1900), but we did lose the hedge (-100) (on a final minute Toney goal too!) so a small nick, no problem.

Running advantage after 38 bets: +3580 (+105)
All-time cumulative: +87,194
Running units after 37 bets (7W|30L): +3246 (+1700)

[KTChampions]

I know it's been such a long time since I updated this (well, 4 months is long enough) but real life has become such a nuisance I've really not been able to make proper bets the way I would have liked for this thread. Nevertheless, I intend to do my best to get this up back and running.

So we start with Euros (terrible choice?) but if you've been following this then you know my predilections for teams from Caucascus and "Asia" who somehow play in UEFA.

Slovenia is just about finishing the match to beat Kazakhstan, which is normally a bet I'd take but they were at only 3/1 if I recall, so we escaped that loss.

Tomorrow, however, I got eyes on Azerbaijan, who'll do all they can to upset Austria.

100 units on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Austria @12.55 on Sportsbet. Other odds: 11.5
Bet ID: 641b644369eea000018c4f93
Units advantage: 105


Also, finally updating the totals here. We had a great Brentford win vs City (+1900), but we did lose the hedge (-100) (on a final minute Toney goal too!) so a small nick, no problem.

Running advantage after 38 bets: +3580 (+105)
All-time cumulative: +87,194
Running units after 37 bets (7W|30L): +3246 (+1700)

Nice to see you back!  I hope we see interesting successful bets again.

As for Azerbaijan, such odds would be adequate in my opinion if they played at home, but away I would not take odds less than 15. On the other hand, this is a "broken" season, so the randomness of the results of the games should be above average.

From today's games, I like the ridiculous quotes for the victory of Portugal - 1.01 (but I can understand this), and the even more ridiculous quote that Ronaldo will score a goal - 1.11  With all due respect to Ronaldo and Portugal, this is something strange.

[KTChampions]

~
From today's games, I like the ridiculous quotes for the victory of Portugal - 1.01 (but I can understand this), and the even more ridiculous quote that Ronaldo will score a goal - 1.11  With all due respect to Ronaldo and Portugal, this is something strange.

The bookmakers were right again, but I would never bet with 1.11 odds in a market like this, it's pure madness. By the way, it was surprising for me that Ronaldo scored for Liechtenstein for the first time, he is often accused of scoring against dwarf countries, but Liechtenstein was not yet on his list (it seems that it now consists of about 50 teams - not every striker generally scores so many goals for the national team ).

Azerbaijan could not do anything against Austria  No more national team bets? It seems to me that a bet on Kazakhstan against Austria with odds of 14.50 may be promising.

[Saint-loup]

I know it's been such a long time since I updated this (well, 4 months is long enough) but real life has become such a nuisance I've really not been able to make proper bets the way I would have liked for this thread. Nevertheless, I intend to do my best to get this up back and running.

So we start with Euros (terrible choice?) but if you've been following this then you know my predilections for teams from Caucascus and "Asia" who somehow play in UEFA.

Slovenia is just about finishing the match to beat Kazakhstan, which is normally a bet I'd take but they were at only 3/1 if I recall, so we escaped that loss.

Tomorrow, however, I got eyes on Azerbaijan, who'll do all they can to upset Austria.

100 units on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Austria @12.55 on Sportsbet. Other odds: 11.5
Bet ID: 641b644369eea000018c4f93
Units advantage: 105


Also, finally updating the totals here. We had a great Brentford win vs City (+1900), but we did lose the hedge (-100) (on a final minute Toney goal too!) so a small nick, no problem.

Running advantage after 38 bets: +3580 (+105)
All-time cumulative: +87,194
Running units after 37 bets (7W|30L): +3246 (+1700)

It's nice to see you coming back with your famous thread. I hope you will continue to make big profits  Did you take a "boost" from Sportsbet to get those odds?
Which odds comparator are you using btw because Odds Portal gives me 13.39 for Azerbaijan (but I guess it's the odds of the last minute before the game had started) https://www.oddsportal.com/football/europe/euro-2024/austria-azerbaijan-ANTUoJoi

[buwaytress]

That didn't go nearly as close as I imagined, but today I wonder if Iceland might be a bit of an overestimation

Liechtenstein isn't a team to tear up the manual but I feel they have it in them to win 1 in 10 games, not 30, against Iceland? Their only recent good result was a 1-1 draw against Armenia so I'm probably throwing money away but:

100 units at Fairlay on Liechtenstein to WIN vs Iceland @31.00. Other odds: 27.40
Units advantage: 360

Running advantage after 39 bets: +3940 (+360)
All-time cumulative: +87,194
Running units after 38 bets (7W|31L): +3146 (-100)

Azerbaijan could not do anything against Austria  No more national team bets? It seems to me that a bet on Kazakhstan against Austria with odds of 14.50 may be promising.

I missed that one actually, I agree, that was a value bet... Kazakhstan was also 14/1 when they were behind in today's match vs Denmark at HT. Too bad I didn't take that opportunity up I tell you, these Asian/Caucascus teams aren't TOO bad...

It's nice to see you coming back with your famous thread. I hope you will continue to make big profits  Did you take a "boost" from Sportsbet to get those odds?
Which odds comparator are you using btw because Odds Portal gives me 13.39 for Azerbaijan (but I guess it's the odds of the last minute before the game had started) https://www.oddsportal.com/football/europe/euro-2024/austria-azerbaijan-ANTUoJoi

Thank you, and I appreciate when you guys come in. I always intended to give this section of the forum a thread that gives trackable results on a particular strategy. Don't you hate that most tip threads cherry pick results, and don't even give an actual performance on bankroll? I do wish I had the energy to do this daily as I did before but still, to have 5 consecutive seasons of performance, chronological and on bankroll, it is enough of a sample to say this strat works for me

I used to just use oddschecker (but beware they use promo odds, which is only applicable to first bets, at low max wager), but I find that for crypto sportsbetting, it's enough to check Pinnacle odds, and then check on the main books -- at the moment, Sportsbet with the boost (which is where I took 27.40 odds on the bet above, boosted from 25/1), Fairlay is competitive on longshots and early markets, FortuneJack, Stake, Nitro are Pinnacle derived too, so aren't really useful to compare UNLESS you use promotions, which I make note off when I bet (FJ and Stake have seasonal cashback which give incredible value).

Obviously odds shift over time so I only publish odds at the time I post/bet. I find early markets are pretty awesome value, but that can change with sudden injuries or form over 2 or 3 weeks so... it is a gamble. But I also use historical odds. e.g. If team A has an early market (3/4 weeks away from actual match) and has lost 3-4 games in a row, books give them shit probability, but I love that as odds only get worse as they win games coming up to the market.

[KTChampions]

~

Azerbaijan could not do anything against Austria  No more national team bets? It seems to me that a bet on Kazakhstan against Austria with odds of 14.50 may be promising.

I missed that one actually, I agree, that was a value bet... Kazakhstan was also 14/1 when they were behind in today's match vs Denmark at HT. Too bad I didn't take that opportunity up I tell you, these Asian/Caucascus teams aren't TOO bad...
~

Kazakhstan won after all (I also didn't bet, eh).
I would like to know what were the quotes for the victory of Kazakhstan after the first half when Denmark was leading 2-0. Obviously they were at least 100 to 1.
Yes, I know about the strength of the Caucasian and Asian teams, but there is one caveat - I will never bet on their away games. From what I have seen, they play very weakly in away games, but at home their strength is about x2 of the average.

And thanks for the next explanation of your system - I already studied it, but it's good to refresh everything again (plus some changes are always possible).

[buwaytress]

Ouch on Iceland, heh heh.

Good caveat to notice, KTChampions, and couldn't agree more. But always feel like I should still count on disruption to the norm. Hasn't worked out yet (too bad about Kazakhstan) but here's another couple more attempts:

100 units at Sportsbet on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Sweden @16.95. Other odds: 15.50
Bet ID: 6421b837edad450001d5c947

100 units at Fairlay on Bulgaria to WIN vs Hungary @11.19. Other odds: 10.90

Units advantage: 145+29 = 174

Running advantage after 41 bets: +4114 (+174)
All-time cumulative: +87,194
Running units after 39 bets (7W|32L): +3046 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Horrible games, not a chance, and I almost breathed relief when Estonia relinquished their lead (as I didn't bet on them).

Israel's my only pick for today, again, odds look tempting but only as they play away. They have a bit of trouble back home so might be more motivated to win this one, no?

100 units at Fairlay on Israel to WIN vs Switzerland @8.31. Other odds: 8
Units advantage: 31

Running advantage after 42 bets: +4145 (+31)
All-time cumulative: +87,225
Running units after 41 bets (7W|34L): +2846 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Israel, haha.

Anyway, Premier League is back, and it's a game I can't afford to miss, so am actually otw home now on the road.

I completely forgot to put this bet down, Liverpool is away but City is as shaky, if not shakier, than Liverpool, and I know Pep doesn't have the best record against a side that has been known to bully them. This makes the odds high value for me, really! So let's double the bet size for this

If we do well, BVB is up next!

200 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN vs City @5.96. Other odds: 5.2
Units advantage: 76

Running advantage after 43 bets: +4221 (+76)
All-time cumulative: +87,301
Running units after 42 bets (7W|34L): +2746 (-100)

Wow, what a loss. Can't process it now, but why not add another double-unit bet on BVB?

200 units at Fairlay on BVB to WIN vs Bayern @5.99. Other odds: 6.20 (I saw this earlier, but too late to take it, I'll consider another bookie must have it).
Units advantage: -21

Running advantage after 44 bets: +4200 (-21)
All-time cumulative: +87,280
Running units after 43 bets (7W|36L): +2546 (-200)

[KTChampions]

~
200 units at Fairlay on BVB to WIN vs Bayern @5.99. Other odds: 6.20 (I saw this earlier, but too late to take it, I'll consider another bookie must have it).
Units advantage: -21

Running advantage after 44 bets: +4200 (-21)
All-time cumulative: +87,280
Running units after 43 bets (7W|36L): +2546 (-200)

I think Haaland helped a lot in today's Liverpool disaster - he was not on the field. Liverpool have learned to close him and in general when he is on the field it is clear where to expect threats from. His absence turned the tables and City dominated last year's style. Now I believe more and more that Haaland will go to Real Madrid, maybe even this summer.

I think a bet on Dortmund is a value bet, I hope it works today - it will refresh the championship and spur Bayern (whose main task in season is to knock out City).

[buwaytress]

You said what was on my mind man. We were set up and prepared for Haaland, we forgot that Alvarez actually plays as a "normal" guy. I'm hurting today still, but not enough to put Lyon up for our next upset?

100 units at Sportsbet on Lyon to WIN vs PSG @7.82. Other odds: 7.20
Units advantage: 62

Running advantage after 45 bets: +4262 (+62)
All-time cumulative: +87,342
Running units after 44 bets (7W|37L): +2346 (-200)

[arallmuus]

100 units at Sportsbet on Lyon to WIN vs PSG @7.82. Other odds: 7.20
Units advantage: 62

Running advantage after 45 bets: +4262 (+62)
All-time cumulative: +87,342
Running units after 44 bets (7W|37L): +2346 (-200)

You actually won this one. I read this post like 30 minutes before the game start and normally I wouldnt bat an eye on these type of high odds underdog bets or something but I kinda feel like taking this one after I read this then decided not to like on the last 10 minutes before the game start. Great job on spotting this one, pfft PSG actually ended up losing this is just hilarious 

[Trofo]

100 units at Sportsbet on Lyon to WIN vs PSG @7.82. Other odds: 7.20
Units advantage: 62

Running advantage after 45 bets: +4262 (+62)
All-time cumulative: +87,342
Running units after 44 bets (7W|37L): +2346 (-200)

You actually won this one. I read this post like 30 minutes before the game start and normally I wouldnt bat an eye on these type of high odds underdog bets or something but I kinda feel like taking this one after I read this then decided not to like on the last 10 minutes before the game start. Great job on spotting this one, pfft PSG actually ended up losing this is just hilarious 

PSG is in shambles right now and it is just a matter of time before, Galtier gets sacked. Not that he deserves any better from what I have seen, he does not seem like coach for top team that needs to get respect from spoiled stars.

Don't get me wrong he did not have an easy job. PSG is team without any balance, best seen from his bench in game against Bayern. But you have that three mega stars at front and it is incredible how timid they look under Galtier.

[KTChampions]

You said what was on my mind man. We were set up and prepared for Haaland, we forgot that Alvarez actually plays as a "normal" guy. I'm hurting today still, but not enough to put Lyon up for our next upset?

100 units at Sportsbet on Lyon to WIN vs PSG @7.82. Other odds: 7.20
Units advantage: 62

Running advantage after 45 bets: +4262 (+62)
All-time cumulative: +87,342
Running units after 44 bets (7W|37L): +2346 (-200)

Congratulations on your good choice. Ironically, I made a little express from Roma and PSG and PSG ruined it, haha.
In fact, I expected that the trashy PSG having taken off from the Champions League would at least be busy stuffing statistics for their "stars" in the farmers' league, but they are not even capable of that.

PSG is in shambles right now and it is just a matter of time before, Galtier gets sacked. Not that he deserves any better from what I have seen, he does not seem like coach for top team that needs to get respect from spoiled stars.

Don't get me wrong he did not have an easy job. PSG is team without any balance, best seen from his bench in game against Bayern. But you have that three mega stars at front and it is incredible how timid they look under Galtier.

I see no reason to blame Galtier. No one will let him make obvious rearrangements (for example, expel Messi), in fact, he has limited powers.