Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

That didn't happen properly, now did it? No matter. We keep coming close, and then get whacked by the Germans.

Real Madrid, they almost clinched it for me and today, at over 6/1, you have to say these are high-value odds. Probably brought on by Camavinga's absence, but there are capable deputies. I have a good feeling.

So let's again use our cushion here, why not?

300 units at Fairlay on Real Madrid to WIN vs Man City @6.27. Other odds: 5.80
Units advantage: 141

Running advantage after 61 bets: +5869 (+141)
All-time cumulative: +88,947
Running units after 60 bets (8W|52L): +1228 (-100)

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[buwaytress]

Have really done myself a disfavour by putting large bets on Real... and they let me down with a draw and a huge loss.

Doesn't matter. We still have plenty of time to whittle down my meagre profit. We'll try to end the season with either a decent bank, or a small loss (I'm not concerned about keeping the record of not ending a season in loss, should I though?)

Delicious bet against Milan today, sorry Sampdoria has no chance, but hey.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sampdoria to WIN vs Milan @25.20. Other odds: 23
Units advantage: 220

Running advantage after 62 bets: +6089 (+220)
All-time cumulative: +89,167
Running units after 61 bets (8W|53L): +928 (-300)

[buwaytress]

Yikes, I really am pulling farther and farther away from the wins, huh?

The good news is we have Chelsea and Lampard today to try and nick some points that no longer matter from City. And we also have Southampton to try and salvage some honour on their final Premiership games.

The bad news is that after Arsenal lost, Chelsea's odds dropped -- while I actually secured 12/1, I was dumb enough to parlay it with a Liverpool win yesterday that didn't happen, so I'm posting good odds below but you're lucky if you find even 9/1 today.

100 units at Sportsbet on Chelsea to WIN vs City @10.54. Other odds: 8.8
Bet ID: 6461e0941e4b050001a11e5f

100 units at Sportsbet on Southampton to WIN vs Brighton @13.50. Other odds: 12.50
Bet ID: 645f9ab11e4b05000145a664

Units advantage: 274

Running advantage after 64 bets: +6363 (+274)
All-time cumulative: +89,441
Running units after 62 bets (8W|54L): +828 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Didn't make my day, far from, so we continue spamming on Chelsea when odds are good, and I actually think the next game tomorrow provides that particular value.

But since I don't like simple bets, let's tie it with Liverpool's last game with Saints.

100 units at Sportsbet on Chelsea to WIN vs Man Utd and Liverpool to WIN vs Southampton@7.82. Other odds: 7.38
Units advantage: 44
Bet ID: 646c7614c51fdb000192ff06

Running advantage after 65 bets: +6407 (+44)
All-time cumulative: +89,485
Running units after 64 bets (8W|56L): +628 (-200)

[KTChampions]

Barcelona wiped out my multi bet yesterday (didn't think they'd be that brazen to lose two games in a row) and I just went to check the thread - maybe you were lucky with it? But no. By the way, why didn't you bet on Valladolid yesterday? The coefficient was not too high, but the probability of winning was apparently significant.
Now I think that in the next round Barcelona will have to win against Mallorca and probably even with a -1 handicap. What do you think about it?

[buwaytress]

Barcelona wiped out my multi bet yesterday (didn't think they'd be that brazen to lose two games in a row) and I just went to check the thread - maybe you were lucky with it? But no. By the way, why didn't you bet on Valladolid yesterday? The coefficient was not too high, but the probability of winning was apparently significant.
Now I think that in the next round Barcelona will have to win against Mallorca and probably even with a -1 handicap. What do you think about it?

Yeah, I wonder why myself. It must have been lower than 6/1 though for my eyes to have skipped over the bet, and for a team like that (Valladolid), that's poor value, regardless of Barca's current (unproven) bad streak.

I'm still hurting over the near-hit of 11 May (Juventus equalising in Fergie time ruining that bet), I thought that would be the season-saving bet.

Handicap -1 is only 18/10... I'd go -1.5 for a big bet to get 24/10, but that's still not great value for me, judging from their problematic end of season. It's a friendly equivalent!

[KTChampions]

Barcelona wiped out my multi bet yesterday (didn't think they'd be that brazen to lose two games in a row) and I just went to check the thread - maybe you were lucky with it? But no. By the way, why didn't you bet on Valladolid yesterday? The coefficient was not too high, but the probability of winning was apparently significant.
Now I think that in the next round Barcelona will have to win against Mallorca and probably even with a -1 handicap. What do you think about it?

Yeah, I wonder why myself. It must have been lower than 6/1 though for my eyes to have skipped over the bet, and for a team like that (Valladolid), that's poor value, regardless of Barca's current (unproven) bad streak.

I'm still hurting over the near-hit of 11 May (Juventus equalising in Fergie time ruining that bet), I thought that would be the season-saving bet.

Handicap -1 is only 18/10... I'd go -1.5 for a big bet to get 24/10, but that's still not great value for me, judging from their problematic end of season. It's a friendly equivalent!

Hm... I don't use the Asian Handicap, so it's hard for me to judge value. I wanted to see what the odds would be for -2, but funny: there are quotes for -1, -3 and -4 but no -2 on sportsbets:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/soccer/spain/la-liga/fc-barcelona-v-rcd-mallorca-6468b505d2599d228717bb82

Is this a hint that the game will end in this way? 3-0 or 4-1?  I'm intrigued, I hope I don't forget this and check the quotes later to see if the -2 outcome would be out of the selection options.

[buwaytress]

Dortmund don't need any motivation to win this final game week, but I wonder if Bayern could be troubled by pressure, allowing Koln to take advantage? I don't really have much else to look at (Real Madrid does look like value though) so this is my pick for tomorrow before blockbuster Sunday takes place.

My mission to end the season in a loss is going well haha.

100 units at Sportsbet on Cologne to WIN vs Bayern @8.48. Other odds: 7.80
Edit odds @7.82. Current odds: 6.40 but we'll keep yesterday's actual.
Bet ID: 646f896bc51fdb0001c99899
Units advantage: 2

Running advantage after 66 bets: +6409 (+2)
All-time cumulative: +89,487
Running units after 65 bets (8W|57L): +528 (-100)

[arallmuus]

Dortmund don't need any motivation to win this final game week

Just kinda wondering this but doesnt Dortmund actually need a whole lot of motivation to win the last game if they want to win the title? Well Main lost their last 4 games horribly but Bayern might snatch that from them if they lose their last game against Mainz so all the reason needed to be extra careful on their last game though

Anyway, I kinda like this so Im taking this bet as well. Small stake though, may the best be with us ( odds are kinda horrible in this site imo )

[buwaytress]

Dortmund don't need any motivation to win this final game week

Just kinda wondering this but doesnt Dortmund actually need a whole lot of motivation to win the last game if they want to win the title? Well Main lost their last 4 games horribly but Bayern might snatch that from them if they lose their last game against Mainz so all the reason needed to be extra careful on their last game though

Anyway, I kinda like this so Im taking this bet as well. Small stake though, may the best be with us ( odds are kinda horrible in this site imo )

Yeah, you're right but that's sort of what I meant -- needing no motivation is a way of saying they need no more motivation, haha. It's the title on the line and (not that anyone's thinking it) but they could actually still lose or draw and take it, if Bayern fail to win so you could argue.

Odds are always tricky to find but yeah, Sportsbet's daily price boost is big when going for longshots. These days I find it's a two-horse fight for my bets between Fairlay (really good odds at times) and Sportsbet on the price boost.

Occasionally, Stake and FortuneJack have promos that make up for odds, giving bigger value (typically, cashback or some form of insurance) but these are less frequent recently, and have small bet limits.

In fact yesterday I realised I was very late on confirming my bet, odds went pretty badly down so I only ended up getting 7.82 (I've adjusted the numbers now). Rare mistake for me, I pounce on those but got distracted making this post...

The good news for us now is that odds are 64/10. So we caught great value in any case.

[buwaytress]

What? Season is almost ending (typically I end with Champions League final) and we still have over 400 units to burn, so why not let's try spread it out a bit over the next 3 big finals coming up, right? That starts today with the FA Cup final.

A simple ML on United to come out on top against City (who plays their second choice keeper).

100 units at Fairlay on Man Utd to WIN vs Man City @5.89. Other odds: 5.45
Units advantage: 44

Running advantage after 67 bets: +6453 (+44)
All-time cumulative: +89,531
Running units after 66 bets (8W|58L): +428 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Worst game ever, United, but who am I to talk, when they were in the final eh?

A bit of a pity I didn't post the other bet I had that did hit (PSG losing) yesterday but let's go for another champion going down, this time in Italy, in another game that doesn't matter.

Bottom team meets top.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sampdoria to WIN vs Napoli @29.60. Other odds: 25.00
Units advantage: 460

Running advantage after 68 bets: +6913 (+460)
All-time cumulative: +89,991
Running units after 67 bets (8W|59L): +328 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Early bet for this weekend, it's going to be the final two bets of this season, and on the Champions League final, because what else?

I have an early outright on Inter at 8/1, so I already feel like I'm set there, but for the sake of seeing if we can end this season with a more respectable profit, let's do an all-or-nothing finish. Breaking even's not bad, too, right?

100 units each at Sportsbet and Fairlay:
Inter to lift the trophy @4.63. Other odds: 4.40
Inter to WIN vs City @7.16. Other odds: 6.60
Bet ID: 6475fb45fc4a0c0001c0937f

Running advantage after 70 bets: +6992 (+79)
All-time cumulative: +90,070
Running units after 68 bets (8W|60L): +228 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Excuse this post, I don't have my normal devices with me but I propose Burnley to Win the Prem League opener today. I don't actually have the ability to bet so can't make this post official.

See you all in a few days.

=========Edit

Final season tally 2022/23

Running advantage after 70 bets: +6992 (+79)
All-time cumulative: +90,070
Running units after 70 bets (8W|62L): +28

[buwaytress]

A belated start to the new season, and if you've been following European cup competitions, the underdogs have been having the time of their lives, plenty of 10/1+ odds booked.

Not so much in regular league duties in Spain and England, but the final game of matchday 1 in the Premier League is the first bet of the season. I'll edit the previous post properly with calculations and we start the bankroll fresh today, taking only total unit advantage tallies forward.

Wolves are rudderless but United could have a tricky start under a lot of pressure, so I feel the odds are lopsided.

100 units at Sportsbet on Wolves to WIN vs Man Utd @10.90. Other odds: 9.90
Units advantage: 100
Bet ID: 64d7f4044969d000014f6804

Running advantage after 1 bet:+100
All-time cumulative: +90,170

[KTChampions]

A belated start to the new season, and if you've been following European cup competitions, the underdogs have been having the time of their lives, plenty of 10/1+ odds booked.

Not so much in regular league duties in Spain and England, but the final game of matchday 1 in the Premier League is the first bet of the season. I'll edit the previous post properly with calculations and we start the bankroll fresh today, taking only total unit advantage tallies forward.

Wolves are rudderless but United could have a tricky start under a lot of pressure, so I feel the odds are lopsided.

100 units at Sportsbet on Wolves to WIN vs Man Utd @10.90. Other odds: 9.90
Units advantage: 100
Bet ID: 64d7f4044969d000014f6804

Running advantage after 1 bet:+100
All-time cumulative: +90,170

Welcome back!
I can't say (despite the tough game and the penalty that the referee didn't award) that the Wolves were close to victory. I don't want to upset you, but for now I think that bets against Liverpool will be profitable again this season (as well as against United).  What do you think?
So far, of all the teams, only Newcastle impressed me (City seems to have not become weaker, but this is already so tired that it does not cause emotions).

[buwaytress]

Thank you, KTChampions!

I do take pride in making picks that win, but possibly take even more pride in picks that almost win, and in games where the severe underdog outplayed and still lost. Wolves was absolutely the kind of game you love to bet on, as they looked like they would win 90% of the game. Most shots against United by any team since 2014, but Wolves need to fix their finishing. Jimenez was their star until his head injury... they need to discover how to turn attack into goals -- Onana saved United multiple times, though!

We turn to my favourite, City, to go down to Sevilla, why not?

100 units on Sevilla to WIN vs City @7.90. Other odds: 7.30
Units advantage: 60

Running advantage after 2 bets: +160 (+60)
All-time cumulative: +90,230
Running units after 1 bet (0W|1L): -100 (-100)

[KTChampions]

Thank you, KTChampions!

I do take pride in making picks that win, but possibly take even more pride in picks that almost win, and in games where the severe underdog outplayed and still lost. Wolves was absolutely the kind of game you love to bet on, as they looked like they would win 90% of the game. Most shots against United by any team since 2014, but Wolves need to fix their finishing. Jimenez was their star until his head injury... they need to discover how to turn attack into goals -- Onana saved United multiple times, though!

We turn to my favourite, City, to go down to Sevilla, why not?

100 units on Sevilla to WIN vs City @7.90. Other odds: 7.30
Units advantage: 60

Running advantage after 2 bets: +160 (+60)
All-time cumulative: +90,230
Running units after 1 bet (0W|1L): -100 (-100)

With KDB out for a few months, any result in City's game won't surprise me. He is the core of the team so now it will be quite interesting to see how the bookies will evaluate the prospects of City if Newcastle beat them (why not, they are in great shape). A Sevilla win is also a possibility, although I must admit I included in my multibet the outcome of the game in the form of City winning (odds 1.3).

[buwaytress]

Yeah, it was bound for a win until new guy steps in and did the business, penalties anyway wouldn't have given good odds so we both failed on that game, KTChampions.

EPL presents a couple more opportunities. But we settle on one -- Newcastle, if they play like they did, will beat City, if City played like they did in previous matches.

100 units at Sportsbet on Newcastle to WIN vs City @6.39. Other odds: 4.90
Units advantage: +149
Bet ID: 64da726b4969d0000187f6cc

Running advantage after 3 bets: +309 (+149)
All-time cumulative: +90,379
Running units after 2 bets (0W|2L): -200 (-100)

[KTChampions]

Yeah, it was bound for a win until new guy steps in and did the business, penalties anyway wouldn't have given good odds so we both failed on that game, KTChampions.

EPL presents a couple more opportunities. But we settle on one -- Newcastle, if they play like they did, will beat City, if City played like they did in previous matches.

100 units at Sportsbet on Newcastle to WIN vs City @6.39. Other odds: 4.90
Units advantage: +149
Bet ID: 64da726b4969d0000187f6cc

Running advantage after 3 bets: +309 (+149)
All-time cumulative: +90,379
Running units after 2 bets (0W|2L): -200 (-100)

It was all about the Sevilla striker - he missed a few chances (almost two one-on-one outings). I'm sure City couldn't equalize if it went 0-2.
By the way, I'm not happy with the format changes - the abolition of extra time reduces the status of the title.
Where did you get such profitable odds? Is that Fairlay? Judging by bet ID it's sportsbet ) Superboost?