Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

Hello! Bundesliga picks turned out to be really awful, far from even draws, but there you go, we ended with a flourish and hit the last one in Brasil, courtesy Santos. We now breathe for the first time this season in the green zone. Internationals are up next and I'm not really feeling good about any of them given the shyness of bookie markets right now, but I'll take a hit on an Asian team vs almighty Denmark in the upcoming EURO qualifiers, while waiting for other odds to rise.

100 units at Sportsbet on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Denmark @26.30. Other odds: 24. Units advantage: 230

Running advantage after 17 bets: +1457 (+230)
All-time cumulative: +91,407
Running units after 16 bets (2W|14L): +184 (+702)

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[buwaytress]

Could have sworn I posted this earlier today but I don't even see a copy in my drafts so, I have to back a fighting Scotland with several players at peak physical... the type of play Spain can slip up against. With odds like this, and a certainty Scotland wins more than 1 in 15 games, I say good value.

Perhaps confusing this settles before the previous pick, but I'm sure no one cares.

100 units at Sportsbet on Scotland to WIN vs Spain @15.30. Other odds: 12
Bet ID: 65270eb64149c60001a94bd8
Units advantage: 330

Running advantage after 18 bets: +1787 (+330)
All-time cumulative: +91,737
Running units after 16 bets (2W|14L): +184 (+702)

[KTChampions]

Could have sworn I posted this earlier today but I don't even see a copy in my drafts so, I have to back a fighting Scotland with several players at peak physical... the type of play Spain can slip up against. With odds like this, and a certainty Scotland wins more than 1 in 15 games, I say good value.

Perhaps confusing this settles before the previous pick, but I'm sure no one cares.

100 units at Sportsbet on Scotland to WIN vs Spain @15.30. Other odds: 12
Bet ID: 65270eb64149c60001a94bd8
Units advantage: 330

Running advantage after 18 bets: +1787 (+330)
All-time cumulative: +91,737
Running units after 16 bets (2W|14L): +184 (+702)

I am completely sure of this too. Scotland already have their ticket to the Euros in their pocket (I don't think they care about finishing exactly on first or second place in the group) so they can literally play however they want and there will be no pressure on them. For Spain the situation is a little worse and in the home game everyone expects only victory from them. Plus, given the increased randomness of national team games, odds of 15 look like a gift.

[Trofo]

Could have sworn I posted this earlier today but I don't even see a copy in my drafts so, I have to back a fighting Scotland with several players at peak physical... the type of play Spain can slip up against. With odds like this, and a certainty Scotland wins more than 1 in 15 games, I say good value.

I say good value as well, was coming here to thread to give you a tip to put on Scotland and I see you have already done it. They won 2:0 last time and if they hold just for the first half today it could be all sorts of problems for Spain. I went with both to score since I don't believe anybody is keeping Spain quiet for 180+ minutes.

[buwaytress]

Pleased to see gamblers like Trofo and KTChampions were in line with Spain losing -- and it was one VAR decision away from reality, wasn't it? Too bad Denmark showed up last night.

Many one-sided affairs tonight and usually, my money's with Turkey but after an upset of their own this week against Croatia, could they slip up against Latvia, who, despite playing with 10 men the home leg, almost snatched a draw?

100 units at Sportsbet on Latvia to WIN vs Turkey @24.10. Other odds: 22.0
Units advantage: 210

Running advantage after 19 bets: +1997 (+210)
All-time cumulative: +91,947
Running units after 18 bets (2W|16L): -16 (-200)

[KTChampions]

Pleased to see gamblers like Trofo and KTChampions were in line with Spain losing -- and it was one VAR decision away from reality, wasn't it? Too bad Denmark showed up last night.

Many one-sided affairs tonight and usually, my money's with Turkey but after an upset of their own this week against Croatia, could they slip up against Latvia, who, despite playing with 10 men the home leg, almost snatched a draw?

100 units at Sportsbet on Latvia to WIN vs Turkey @24.10. Other odds: 22.0
Units advantage: 210

Running advantage after 19 bets: +1997 (+210)
All-time cumulative: +91,947
Running units after 18 bets (2W|16L): -16 (-200)

Yes, it was a turning point in the game, the outcome of which was decided by VAR. In any case, even from the result that was obtained it is clear that Scotland was underestimated and the odds of 1 to 15 were of great value.
Probably the VAR squad also reads this thread and they were jealous that you could have +1500 after just 18 games 

[buwaytress]

So much about Latvia haha. I guess Turkey really is coming out of the doldrums, huh? But we go again, and this time, I return to my Central Asian value at home vs a dangerous Austria. It's pretty straightforward to me, this team has beaten Jordan, while Austria have drawn Moldova...

100 units at Sportsbet on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Austria @10.46. Other odds: 9.70
Units advantage: 76

Running advantage after 20 bets: +2073 (+76)
All-time cumulative: +92,023
Running units after 19 bets (2W|17L): -116 (-100)

[buwaytress]

What an overestimation of Azer / underestimation of Austria that turned out to be, haha. To be fair, it was a slim victory for the favourite. I'm not about to give up on the Central Asians yet and I feel like Finland deserves to lose this one, if only because Pukki must be in his golden twilight now?

100 units at Sportsbet on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Finland @8.04. Other odds: 7.80
Units advantage: 24

Running advantage after 21 bets: +2097 (+24)
All-time cumulative: +92,047
Running units after 20 bets (2W|18L): -216 (-100)

[KTChampions]

What an overestimation of Azer / underestimation of Austria that turned out to be, haha. To be fair, it was a slim victory for the favourite. I'm not about to give up on the Central Asians yet and I feel like Finland deserves to lose this one, if only because Pukki must be in his golden twilight now?

100 units at Sportsbet on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Finland @8.04. Other odds: 7.80
Units advantage: 24

Running advantage after 21 bets: +2097 (+24)
All-time cumulative: +92,047
Running units after 20 bets (2W|18L): -216 (-100)

Great pick! Gratz 
To be honest, it would never have occurred to me to place this bet (in my opinion, the odds were too small for an away game). I’m probably biased towards teams from Central Asia, but it seems to me that they play weakly in away games, but at home they are stronger than average. But today Zainutdinov broke my stereotypes 

[buwaytress]

Great pick! Gratz 
To be honest, it would never have occurred to me to place this bet (in my opinion, the odds were too small for an away game). I’m probably biased towards teams from Central Asia, but it seems to me that they play weakly in away games, but at home they are stronger than average. But today Zainutdinov broke my stereotypes 

I've been hitting these "expanded UEFA" teams since Nations League started with new slits for EURO qualifications. Back in the day Georgia, Armenia, Azer, Kazakh easily 15/1+ but now they are getting adjustments. At the same time, Scandinavian teams are getting weaker IMO, while they are still seen as firm favourites. The same goes for club matches. Simple H2H stats prove the odds don't match results.

Enjoy these value odds while they last.

My next pick is... surprise, surprise, United to lose again in UCL at Old Trafford. I'll probably find a pick or two in between but this is too good to pass with current odds:

100 units at Sportsbet on Kopenhagn to WIN vs Man Utd @10.24. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 144
Bet ID: 6525b24e4149c6000117ebf8

Running advantage after 22 bets: +2331 (+144)
All-time cumulative: +92,191
Running units after 21 bets (3W|18L): +488 (+704)

[KTChampions]

Great pick! Gratz 
To be honest, it would never have occurred to me to place this bet (in my opinion, the odds were too small for an away game). I’m probably biased towards teams from Central Asia, but it seems to me that they play weakly in away games, but at home they are stronger than average. But today Zainutdinov broke my stereotypes 

I've been hitting these "expanded UEFA" teams since Nations League started with new slits for EURO qualifications. Back in the day Georgia, Armenia, Azer, Kazakh easily 15/1+ but now they are getting adjustments. At the same time, Scandinavian teams are getting weaker IMO, while they are still seen as firm favourites. The same goes for club matches. Simple H2H stats prove the odds don't match results.

Enjoy these value odds while they last.

My next pick is... surprise, surprise, United to lose again in UCL at Old Trafford. I'll probably find a pick or two in between but this is too good to pass with current odds:

100 units at Sportsbet on Kopenhagn to WIN vs Man Utd @10.24. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 144
Bet ID: 6525b24e4149c6000117ebf8

Running advantage after 22 bets: +2331 (+144)
All-time cumulative: +92,191
Running units after 21 bets (3W|18L): +488 (+704)

Yes, I remember how the odds of these teams being less than 10 was perceived as Huh? Therefore, it is now quite difficult to switch to even lower odds.
As for United, it's quite funny to see Copenhagen's odds like this away. Currently the quotes are as follows:

1.42 - 4.90 - 7.20

How far United have fallen! +42% for winning the home game against Copenhagen, what? 

[buwaytress]

As for United, it's quite funny to see Copenhagen's odds like this away. Currently the quotes are as follows:

1.42 - 4.90 - 7.20

How far United have fallen! +42% for winning the home game against Copenhagen, what? 

I remember Chelsea over 2/1 to beat... Burnley, Fulham! They and United (PSG also) are frankly just shameful embarrassments to football. Even Liverpool in terrible seasons would still be hot favourites (which is problematic as a fan haha).

I'm trying out something a bit out of my comfort zone here but I feel like there's value in a Portuguese cup tie tonight. The favourite is Liga B mid-tabler but the away team, a league below, actually reached a last cup final while being champion of their promotion group, so to me, they are qualitatively equal.

2 games now pending.

100 units at Sportsbet on SC Vianense to WIN vs Santa Clara Azores @10.90 Other odds: 10
Units advantage: 90

Running advantage after 23 bets: +2421 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +92,281
Running units after 21 bets (3W|18L): +488 (+704)

[buwaytress]

Well, the Portuguese pick above actually didn't turn out too badly after all. FT 0-0 so we lost but the tie was extremely balanced all the way til 75th minute. Equal shots on goal and off, equal corners, equal cards and even more or less equal possession. No idea about actual quality of play, would be surprised if anyone found a stream but I think that vindicated the pick.

United were natural picks today but I ignored Brighton vs City (I don't like the seagulls these days) and shooed-in Blades, while not forgetting to slip in one against PSG, kicking off in a few minutes but live might even be better. Two bets then, both at Sportsbet:

100 units on Sheffield Utd to WIN vs Man Utd @7.82. Other odds: 7.6. Bet ID: 653136cb4149c6000142d2b5
100 units on Strasbourg to WIN vs PSG @16.40 Other odds: 15  Bet ID: 6533dbe64149c60001dc8c43
Total units advantage: 162

That puts us up 3 bets pending...

Running advantage after 25 bets: +2583 (+162)
All-time cumulative: +92,443
Running units after 22 bets (3W|19L): +388 (-100)

[buwaytress]

So after those two losses on Strasbourg and Sheffield (but United still won playing like crap, pity the fans who have to pay top sterling to watch their team play like that week in, week out), we still have the United loss to hope for vs Copenhagen (check above for the Oct 17th bet). It's still almost 10/1!

Let's pretend Salzburg are a shadow of themselves last season and bet on them tonight to score a win at San Siro. Overvalued Inter, psht!

100 units at Sportsbet on Salzburg to WIN vs Inter @12.55. Other odds: 11.80. Units advantage: 75

Running advantage after 26 bets: +2658 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +92,518
Running units after 24 bets (3W|21L): +188 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Ah, it was not to be, was it? But for Onana being actually decent last night (even without his pen save), it would be a tune tonight.

Now I know accas aren't really where I do well and you get incredible value on BVB alone at Sportsbet (superboost on all Newastle games, hey) but I feel like we can get some away team magic tonight also on Milan. I honestly thin 5/1 for both is a steal, so why not pick both?

100 units at Sportsbet on BVB and Milan to WIN @29.75. Other odds: 25
Units advantage: 475

Running advantage after 27 bets: +3133 (+475)
All-time cumulative: +92,993
Running units after 26 bets (3W|23L): -12 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Yes Dortmund... very big ouch Milan...

Right, must be an acca bug and I rarely recommend this anymore but I just feel the risk factor is fun tonight, so I'm going to suggest a Liverpool pad to up the odds of an Ajax upset by 20%. What? Ajax winning will be an upset against Brighton? How times have changed hmm?

100 units at Sportsbet on Ajax and Liverpool to WIN @11.37. Other odds: 11.20. Units advantage: 17

Running advantage after 28 bets: +3150 (+17)
All-time cumulative: +93,010
Running units after 27 bets (3W|24L): -112 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Funny Ajax... I know they're shit but I thought experience would matter. Came in a bit too late to suggest my main ticket today which would have been a United win vs City, parlayed with a Liverpool HT win to get almost 8/1 -- game already started so we'll go instead with a Freiburg upset away at high-flying Leverkusen. It's not as bad as the bookies suggest, surely?

100 units at Sportsbet on Freiburg to WIN vs Leverkusen @9.80. Other odds: 9.70. Units advantage: 10.
Bet ID: 653e2b284149c6000132183d

Running advantage after 29 bets: +3160 (+10)
All-time cumulative: +93,020
Running units after 28 bets (3W|25L): -212 (-100)

[buwaytress]

A bit of a close match, reflected by the scoreline, but I guess post-summer2023 Freiburg is not pre-summer Freiburg after all. We return to Brasil for some goodfeel pinings, that was the scene of our last non-continental away win, and I think there's value when 8th place takes on 15th place... and odds are inflated as is the case today with Fluminense taking on Bahia. I understand why they're the underdogs as they have Copa Libertadores final on Sunday but that's no reason to not win tonight to build momentum, no?

100 units on Fluminense to WIN vs Bahia @8.26. Other odds: 7.90. Units advantage: 36

Running advantage after 30 bets: +3196 (+36)
All-time cumulative: +93,056
Running units after 29 bets (3W|26L): -312 (-100)

[buwaytress]

1-0 and we lost the bet, but Bahia were lucky not to lose as it turned out, outshot and out-chanced, but not outscored. Lovely string of losses but that doesn't put us off, does it?

More misery for United at Craven Cottage, and a surprise win for BVB in Der Klassiker are my acca for the weekend -- follow a streak and break another?

100 units on Fulham and BVB to WIN @11.68 (the odds aren't wrong, United are that bad). Other odds: 11.55. Units advantage: 13

Running advantage after 31 bets: +3196 (+36)
All-time cumulative: +93,056
Running units after 30 bets (3W|27L): -412 (-100)

[KTChampions]

1-0 and we lost the bet, but Bahia were lucky not to lose as it turned out, outshot and out-chanced, but not outscored. Lovely string of losses but that doesn't put us off, does it?

More misery for United at Craven Cottage, and a surprise win for BVB in Der Klassiker are my acca for the weekend -- follow a streak and break another?

100 units on Fulham and BVB to WIN @11.68 (the odds aren't wrong, United are that bad). Other odds: 11.55. Units advantage: 13

Running advantage after 31 bets: +3196 (+36)
All-time cumulative: +93,056
Running units after 30 bets (3W|27L): -412 (-100)

With such abysmal play and record results (worst start in 60 years and given the date United were founded there's a chance we'll see the record extend back into the 19th century) you might consider betting on a -1 or even -2 goal handicap against United. If City, Newcastle, Brighton and other clubs can beat United big, then why not Fulham? At least sometimes that's what interests you.