Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

With such abysmal play and record results (worst start in 60 years and given the date United were founded there's a chance we'll see the record extend back into the 19th century) you might consider betting on a -1 or even -2 goal handicap against United. If City, Newcastle, Brighton and other clubs can beat United big, then why not Fulham? At least sometimes that's what interests you.

Agree, but Fulham at most would have won 1-0, some of the league's worst finishing I saw on that game -- a draw would have been the forest result.

Today I go for a simple Arsenal upset. They are still a good team, but play as if they're on the ropes. Didn't particularly deserve to lose their last game so will be fired up to make amends but I suspect Sevilla will be really problematic to break open, leading to frustration, which always upsets the Gunners and leaves them vulnerable to counters.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla to WIN vs Arsenal @9.80. Other odds: 9.5. Units advantage: 30.
Bet ID: 654b4de54149c6000186f673

Running advantage after 32 bets: +3226 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +93,086
Running units after 31 bets (3W|28L): -512 (-100)

[1714861969]

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[1714861969]

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[KTChampions]

With such abysmal play and record results (worst start in 60 years and given the date United were founded there's a chance we'll see the record extend back into the 19th century) you might consider betting on a -1 or even -2 goal handicap against United. If City, Newcastle, Brighton and other clubs can beat United big, then why not Fulham? At least sometimes that's what interests you.

Agree, but Fulham at most would have won 1-0, some of the league's worst finishing I saw on that game -- a draw would have been the forest result.
~

As a result, United implemented an even more interesting option - they lost to Copenhagen in the Champions League and seem to be saying goodbye to this tournament  I'm surprised at how resilient he is - any other coach would have been fired for half of these failures.
It seems that Arsenal had no problems at all with Sevilla (which made their only shot on target in stoppage time). They are terrible in both tournaments, so perhaps the odds for their victory of less than 10 should be considered unprofitable?

[buwaytress]

As a result, United implemented an even more interesting option - they lost to Copenhagen in the Champions League and seem to be saying goodbye to this tournament  I'm surprised at how resilient he is - any other coach would have been fired for half of these failures.
It seems that Arsenal had no problems at all with Sevilla (which made their only shot on target in stoppage time). They are terrible in both tournaments, so perhaps the odds for their victory of less than 10 should be considered unprofitable?

Sigh, yes, but 4/1 odds on Kopenhagn didn't attract me enough for betting, unfortunately. The smart bet now would be an acca on them to win their next two games vs Galatasaray and Bayern, but no markets yet for the latter game so I will do this manually

I actually think TH is good, but I've said before the real problem is to undo the culture of "it's ok to be average" at the club. Rashford had his manager backing him throughout his horrid start but then he goes clubbing after losing the derby? I think he doesn't have the full team backing, which is a shame.

Pity about Sevilla, I think they're better than this really, it's not characteristic at all.

Simple Europa tie tonight, 2nd in Austrian League vs 5th in Serie A. Worth it?

100 units at Sportsbet on Sturm Graz to WIN vs Atalanta @10.02. Other odds: 9.60. Units advantage: 42

Running advantage after 33 bets: +3268 (+42)
All-time cumulative: +93,128
Running units after 32 bets (3W|29L): -612 (-100)

[KTChampions]

As a result, United implemented an even more interesting option - they lost to Copenhagen in the Champions League and seem to be saying goodbye to this tournament  I'm surprised at how resilient he is - any other coach would have been fired for half of these failures.
It seems that Arsenal had no problems at all with Sevilla (which made their only shot on target in stoppage time). They are terrible in both tournaments, so perhaps the odds for their victory of less than 10 should be considered unprofitable?

Sigh, yes, but 4/1 odds on Kopenhagn didn't attract me enough for betting, unfortunately. The smart bet now would be an acca on them to win their next two games vs Galatasaray and Bayern, but no markets yet for the latter game so I will do this manually

I actually think TH is good, but I've said before the real problem is to undo the culture of "it's ok to be average" at the club. Rashford had his manager backing him throughout his horrid start but then he goes clubbing after losing the derby? I think he doesn't have the full team backing, which is a shame.

Hmmm... You have a peculiar view on betting, but I didn’t think that you had the same view on coaches  Maybe as a Liverpool fan you just like United's results under Ten Hag?  I evaluate Ten Hag completely differently, but I write about this everywhere so I won’t repeat myself.
Yes, I heard about this situation with Rashford, but I didn’t attach much importance to it since it seemed to be not a club get-together, but a birthday in the family circle. But to be consistent, Ten Hag should have punished Rashford anyway.

[buwaytress]

^ I think it was okay too, but the timing wasn't great and he should have been punished, simple. You're right of course, I love United like this. I was very sad when Ole left, and I genuinely feared what ETH might do... but thankfully, the deeper issues never got resolved and that club is as badly run as ever.

On that subject, United is my easy pick, but I'm wondering if we could catch Arsenal at home with some tricky injuries and manager frustration creeping up? Surely 17/1 is too good to pass on Burnley?

100 units each at Sportsbet on:
Burnley to WIN vs Arsenal @16.40. Other odds: 17/1 (I missed out). Bet ID: 6543af544149c60001ffa2bc
Luton to WIN vs United @10.68. Other odds: 9.90. Bet ID: 654e69f54149c600015ed1a7
Units advantage: 78-60=18

Running advantage after 35 bets: +3286 (+18)
All-time cumulative: +93,146
Running units after 33 bets (3W|30L): -712 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Not sure why I forgot to post here when resuming betting this week but I hit 2 pretty decent underdog bets. No harm, I need a losing season, don't I?

Latvia was my pick in the last round of EURO -- they almost had Turkey by the balls despite playing with ten men. An even harder test awaits tonight but I wonder if Croatia is up for it?

100 units at Sportsbet on Latvia to WIN vs Croatia @20.80. Other odds: 19.50. Unit advantage: 130

Running advantage after 36 bets: +3416 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +93,276
Running units after 35 bets (3W|32L): -912 (-200)

[Trofo]

Not sure why I forgot to post here when resuming betting this week but I hit 2 pretty decent underdog bets. No harm, I need a losing season, don't I?

Latvia was my pick in the last round of EURO -- they almost had Turkey by the balls despite playing with ten men. An even harder test awaits tonight but I wonder if Croatia is up for it?

That's what you get for going against Croatia, serves you right

Croatia was bad in last international slot cause we missed all our first choice attackers, now we got some back and we looked better. Still not good, but Latvia played criminally bad and we could have won that one with bigger margin.

[buwaytress]

That's what you get for going against Croatia, serves you right

Heh, it does indeed. I don't rate Baltic teams but I was being cheeky about Crotia -- and paid the price.

Speaking of being cheeky, here's another bet against a home favourite, but this actually makes sense to me after some impressive performances from Kazakh against Finland and N Ireland. They will risk it all and I think they can edge it.

100 units on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Slovenia @9.58. Other odds: 9.10. Units advantage: 48

Running advantage after 37 bets: +3464 (+48)
All-time cumulative: +93,324
Running units after 36 bets (3W|33L): -1012 (-100)

[buwaytress]

^ That didn't happen. Was a close one though, 1-1 most of the way with both teams unafraid to try claim qualification. Weekend approaches and I'm loading up on a big bet but let's see if we can kick it off with a Moaco upset in Paris... padded with a 12/10 Bayern win.

100 units at Sportsbet on Monaco + Bayern to win vs PSG/Cologne @8.95. Other odds: 8.50. Units advantage: 45

Running advantage after 38 bets: +3509 (+45)
All-time cumulative: +93,369
Running units after 37 bets (3W|34L): -1112 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Ah, well, French football, what to say. Minamino actually scored early in the tie to keep things exciting but everything fell apart after the break, really.

So it's not often we do this but each season we do take on some riskier bets and I have to say, while Liverpool haven't won at the Emirates in 8 years, Nunez, Diaz, Jota and Salah have all been peak performers during international -- I hope they bring it.

500 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN at City @4.74. Other odds (Betcoin has the best if you don't have a priceboost): 4.50. Units advantage: 24x5 = 120
Bet ID: 655dc4f74149c6000179ef9d

Running advantage after 39 bets: +3629 (+120)
All-time cumulative: +93,489
Running units after 38 bets (3W|35L): -1212 (-100)

[KTChampions]

Ah, well, French football, what to say. Minamino actually scored early in the tie to keep things exciting but everything fell apart after the break, really.

So it's not often we do this but each season we do take on some riskier bets and I have to say, while Liverpool haven't won at the Emirates in 8 years, Nunez, Diaz, Jota and Salah have all been peak performers during international -- I hope they bring it.

500 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN at City @4.74. Other odds (Betcoin has the best if you don't have a priceboost): 4.50. Units advantage: 24x5 = 120
Bet ID: 655dc4f74149c6000179ef9d

Running advantage after 39 bets: +3629 (+120)
All-time cumulative: +93,489
Running units after 38 bets (3W|35L): -1212 (-100)

I can't say it was close, but the final score is slippery and Liverpool could have won with some luck. Another question is whether the coefficient was worth it? I think 4.74 was too little in this situation (Liverpool away after international games, a short break to be in Manchester). It seems to me that you made this bet as a Liverpool fan, first of all 

[buwaytress]

^ Yes, I admit to that glaring bias. We haven't won there against Pep with better teams but I still thought it was worth the risk. I'm definitely fast-tracking myself to a first season ending in negative, but at least next season should be with less "pressure". I remind myself the purpose of this thread isn't so much to win but to bag value.

More discipline needed, in any case, to record bets here! In that spirit, 100 units at Sportsbet on each outcome:

Newcastle to WIN vs PSG parlayed with Liverpool to WIN vs LASK in 2 days @6.01. Other odds: 5.55. Bet Id: 656601fc4149c6000122cc26
Leipzig to WIN vs City @9.58. Other odds: 8.90. Bet ID: 6561d2a84149c6000113f2bc

Units advantage: 46+68 = 114

Running advantage after 41 bets: +3743 (+114)
All-time cumulative: +93,603
Running units after 39 bets (3W|36L): -1712 (-500)

[buwaytress]

Newcastle were denied a win unlawfully, as you might have known by now, with both referee and VAR stood down after gifting PSG the penalty that let them equalise. Leipzig also ended the first half 2 goals to nil, but Citeh scared 3 in the second half. There was a moment when Fabio on loan from Liverpool almost won the game at 2-2 but his ass got us offside. Oh well.

Spurs are sadly declining after some way-too-early hype, but I fancy Son getting his team all three points at Etihad.

100 units at Sportsbet on Spurs to WIN vs Man City @11.36. Other odds: 10.00. Units advantage: 136
656c44624149c60001954c9b

Running advantage after 42 bets: +3879 (+136)
All-time cumulative: +93,739
Running units after 41 bets (3W|38L): -1912 (-200)

[buwaytress]

So near, and yet so far. If you told me I would lose bets on City losing but thhey'd still drop points, I'd be asking when I could do it again. Arsenal have surprised me this season, really, and I actually haven't watched them play much but as hot as they are, I doubt last season you could get these kinds of odds away, even against Luton.

Call me naive but one simply cannot allow such odds to pass you by:

100 units on Luton Town to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 17.30. Units advantage: 130

Running advantage after 43 bets: +4009 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +93,869
Running units after 42 bets (3W|39L): -2012 (-100)

[KTChampions]

So near, and yet so far. If you told me I would lose bets on City losing but thhey'd still drop points, I'd be asking when I could do it again. Arsenal have surprised me this season, really, and I actually haven't watched them play much but as hot as they are, I doubt last season you could get these kinds of odds away, even against Luton.

Call me naive but one simply cannot allow such odds to pass you by:

100 units on Luton Town to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 17.30. Units advantage: 130

Running advantage after 43 bets: +4009 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +93,869
Running units after 42 bets (3W|39L): -2012 (-100)

It's a pity that the bet on City's defeat against Aston Villa is currently quoted at odds of 4.70. This outcome looks quite logical and probable (three draws in a row by City indicate some problems), but the coefficient is very small.
As for the previous bets, you were close almost everywhere, I wonder when the fluctuation will occur in your favor.

[buwaytress]

^ Indeed, Villa were rightly tipped to have a chance but the value (what you refer to as coefficient) indeed put me off. Definitely came close so many times but that's how it goes. I feel like this could finally be the season I post a loss in the end but for now, I keep putting bets where I feel coefficients are great.

With that, Nantes presents an exciting opportunity, where they have beaten PSG once each of the past two seasons. A much weaker team now but with PSG frailty, you never know.

100 units at Sportsbet on Nantes to WIN vs PSG @13.10. Other odds: 11.80. Units advantage: 130
Bet ID: 65737a41786d660001a9a7f3

Running advantage after 44 bets: +4139 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +93,999
Running units after 43 bets (3W|40L): -2112 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Didn't work out for Nantes -- they equalised in the second half but didn't find a breakthrough and lost in the end. No sugar for me, unfortunately. I'm reluctant to call today's bet a value offering. Luton should be easily 20/1 but City's form has been depressing enough to nudge bookies to ratchet the odds down, but you know what they say about how it pours when it rains... anyway at HT City's huffing and puffing didn't work out. Walker's off, Grealish too, Alvarez missing. Luton actually had half-decent chances. 45 minutes left, could the Citizens fall?

Edit: wow Luton score as I post this haha...

100 units at Sportsbet on Luton City to WIN vs City @14.75. Other odds: 13.8. Units advantage: 95
Bet ID: 6575ba74786d66000172ab97

Running advantage after 45 bets: +4234 (+95)
All-time cumulative: +94,094
Running units after 44 bets (3W|41L): -2212 (-100)

[buwaytress]

It's a big night of Champions League football but I'm going to turn my sights on the Club World Cup instead. The mighty Al-Ittihad, who boast Benzema and Fabinho meet Kiwi minnows Auckland City -- but form is good for the antipodeans, while I'm counting on poor form and overconfidence from the Jeddah giants. It's silly money, on a frivolous game, I'm feeling good.

100 units at Sportsbet on Auckland to WIN vs Al-Ittihad @26.30. Other odds: 25. Units advantage: 130
Bet ID: 65784cff786d660001325ccf

Running advantage after 46 bets: +4364 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +94,224
Running units after 45 bets (3W|42L): -2312 (-100)

[buwaytress]

So much for plucky New Zealanders upstaging stars seeing out their twilight years! Champions League offered a starring Belgian side but I didn't take it, shame. Instead, we return to Swiss side Servette who face tricky home opponents Slavia Praha. It's a difficult ask, but I got incredible odds when it touched 10/1, books quickly returned to a more reasonable 65/10 so I think this is very much a value bet.

100 units at Sportsbet on Servette to WIN vs Prague @10.02. Other odds: 6.60. Units advantage: 342
Bet ID: 6570d9c64149c60001de54d3

Running advantage after 47 bets: +4706 (+342)
All-time cumulative: +94,566
Running units after 46 bets (3W|43L): -2412 (-100)

[buwaytress]

What a rout this turned out to be heh heh. So I go back to my boring old ways. Etihad is a fortress and old foe Zaha no longer leads the line but I'm still happy to bet against City with odds like this, before the return of KdB in January.

Easy win coming hopefully?

100 units at Sportsbet on Palace to WIN vs City @16.40. Other odds: 14.80. Units advantage: 160
Bet ID: 657a105d786d660001421750

Running advantage after 48 bets: +4866 (+160)
All-time cumulative: +94,726
Running units after 47 bets (3W|44L): -2512 (-100)