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picobit
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November 22, 2012, 08:01:53 PM |
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Oh, and while I am here I have a question for you, Fireball.
On "judgment day" when the BUZ2 contracts are settled, will the settlement price be limited by the max 10% per day rule?
I am thinking about the situation where there happens to be extreme volatility in the BTC price just prior to the 15th December, and/or somebody successfully manipulates the BUZ2 rate the last couple of clearings.
And will a new future (BUZ3?) be introduced? I assume it will. Will the two overlap in time? And how long will the new future run? The longer until settlement, the less the price will be coupled to the spot market price, and the less useful it will be for e.g. hedging.
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I HATE TABLES I HATE TABLES I HA(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻ TABLES I HATE TABLES I HATE TABLES
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smickles
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November 22, 2012, 08:47:20 PM |
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And will a new future (BUZ3?) be introduced? I assume it will. Will the two overlap in time? And how long will the new future run? The longer until settlement, the less the price will be coupled to the spot market price, and the less useful it will be for e.g. hedging.
Once there is volume to support it, there really ought to be one for each month (or something like that). |
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Fireball (OP)
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November 22, 2012, 08:55:01 PM |
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On "judgment day" when the BUZ2 contracts are settled, will the settlement price be limited by the max 10% per day rule?
No limitations on settlement price, however in the so-called worst case, if there is a lack of money then profit will be [slightly] less, exactly by the amount of deficit. For information, if clearing would happen today, the worst-case scenario would not be triggered. I am thinking about the situation where there happens to be extreme volatility in the BTC price just prior to the 15th December, and/or somebody successfully manipulates the BUZ2 rate the last couple of clearings.
Yes, extreme volatility often happens during last trading day, but it's often viewed as chance to make big money with almost zero risk. So it's self adjusting. And will a new future (BUZ3?) be introduced? I assume it will. Will the two overlap in time? And how long will the new future run? The longer until settlement, the less the price will be coupled to the spot market price, and the less useful it will be for e.g. hedging.
Yes, of course a new one will be introduced before the existing one runs out so that users have time to move to the next one if they don't want settlement. As for next futures settlement month, the reasonable tradeoff would February, 2013. |
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picobit
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November 22, 2012, 09:30:29 PM |
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Thanks for your answers! As for next futures settlement month, the reasonable tradeoff would February, 2013.
That seems short enough to make them interesting. |
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starik69
Legendary
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Activity: 1367
Merit: 1000
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November 22, 2012, 09:49:02 PM |
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I think march and/or june is more interesting, like on FORTS  |
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segabtc
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November 22, 2012, 11:39:13 PM |
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+1 I like this, one more suggestion for the tabs, how about a tab for the last 50 or 100 trades with timestamps, maybe even a scrolling last trade kinda thing, but I do like how the site is improving daily! Looking good, nice UI.
I second this! Both the +1 and the suggestion. In fact, I think the trading history could be published in a way that would make it easier to refute at least some future attacks on your site's honesty. There could be a link generating a list of all transactions in the last week, with timestamps, amount and prices, and all clearings done. The list should be autogenerated on the fly so it contains even the last transaction, and it should be cryptographically signed. Then after trading, users could in principle download the list, verify that their trades are present and as expect - and later verify against a newer list that the logs have not been tampered with in between. The cryptographic signature prevents a malicious user from altering the list and claiming tampering. I do like this idea also, but fireball is only one man/woman (dont know) I dont want to overload the person, again I dont know how hard this cryto signed stufff will take, but i assume its kinda difficult. but I think fireball is still doing one hell of a job! Its a work in progress, that is coming into its own! |
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smickles
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November 22, 2012, 11:49:19 PM |
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+1 I like this, one more suggestion for the tabs, how about a tab for the last 50 or 100 trades with timestamps, maybe even a scrolling last trade kinda thing, but I do like how the site is improving daily! Looking good, nice UI.
I second this! Both the +1 and the suggestion. In fact, I think the trading history could be published in a way that would make it easier to refute at least some future attacks on your site's honesty. There could be a link generating a list of all transactions in the last week, with timestamps, amount and prices, and all clearings done. The list should be autogenerated on the fly so it contains even the last transaction, and it should be cryptographically signed. Then after trading, users could in principle download the list, verify that their trades are present and as expect - and later verify against a newer list that the logs have not been tampered with in between. The cryptographic signature prevents a malicious user from altering the list and claiming tampering. I do like this idea also, but fireball is only one man/woman (dont know) I dont want to overload the person, again I dont know how hard this cryto signed stufff will take, but i assume its kinda difficult. but I think fireball is still doing one hell of a job! Its a work in progress, that is coming into its own! Depending on the implementation, it could be a simple as clearsigning rss feed entries. But, of course, spamming Fireball with feature requests is a bad idea. |
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guruvan
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November 24, 2012, 03:17:18 PM |
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I added experimental Depth of the Market (DOM) chart, it's available via tabs additionally to the price chart. The price chart also got slightly reconfigured, to prevent it from displaying negative values on the left axis (to be tested how good it performs, though).
The DOM chart automatically updates, so there is no need to hit refresh button in your webbrowser. Please let me know if it helps, and anything you wish to be improved.
This is definitely helpful, but I'd much rather see a text display of the entire orderbook, rather than a graph (again, just scroll bar the current orderbook, and I'd be stoked). Both would be supernice. It would also be very nice to have the day's trade history available. The rss feed is a nice idea. (beats twitter IMO) |
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Ichthyo
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November 24, 2012, 05:16:16 PM |
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As for next futures settlement month, the reasonable tradeoff would February, 2013.
That seems short enough to make them interesting.
The longer until settlement, the less the price will be coupled to the spot market price, and the less useful it will be for e.g. hedging.
Both stages of the rate development are interesting. In the early stage, the rate can move away from spot rates, and reflect sentiments, or just plain speculation, allowing for some interesting arbitrage. When settlement approaches, we'll see the rages converging, which makes the futures more interesting for hedging. Thus I think February will be to early as a settlement date for a new BUZ. Especially, since we have two further futures (Oil and Gold) which are scheduled for February already and thus can be expected to converge (it looks they are starting to converge even now, an there is more volume, esp. in Oil, recently). So people can e.g. buy GDG for hedging a BTC position. Hey, hedging BTC with a gold derivative sounds cool. Consequently, the new BUZ should be rather in the experimentation stage when Gold and Oil approach settlement, so the date should rather be April or May, IMHO. |
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Ichthyo
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November 25, 2012, 03:04:27 AM |
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please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems there is an off-by-one error in the generated depth diagrams. A good example is the Gold market, since it's tiny.....  for example: the 2-sized step at 152 is displayed at at 162.5, where actually the 5-sized step is located |
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Fireball (OP)
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November 25, 2012, 09:40:32 PM |
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please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems there is an off-by-one error in the generated depth diagrams.
Hm, I'm gonna check tomorrow, thanks for reporting. |
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Fireball (OP)
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November 26, 2012, 10:32:05 PM |
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please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems there is an off-by-one error in the generated depth diagrams.
OK, with the next update of the DOM charting (to show buy and sell sides separately), this bug also went away. Also, spread between best bid and best ask became visible on the chart. |
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ThePok
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November 26, 2012, 11:25:20 PM |
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And now a history of the last 100 trades that happend pls  |
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myself
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
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November 27, 2012, 03:30:17 PM |
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 interesting  |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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guruvan
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November 27, 2012, 04:32:20 PM |
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Fireball, somewhere along the line you've introduced (or enhanced) a serious memory leak.
I open the futures page, and it's using 62Mb in Chromium. By the time it grows to 300Mb, I gotta restart my browser.Today, that only took about 1.5hrs.
It's gotten very bad in the last week I think - but seems like the leak was introduced prior to that (I've been wondering why my machine has become progressively slower to wake up, pulling what has turned out to be the icbit page up out of swap space. (I only have 1GB of ram in my main machine)
Basically, I can no longer leave the futures page open, I have to open to check or trade and close when I stop looking at it.
Thanks for looking into this.
myself: I notice that the interesting bids have moved down about 10 cents from yesterday. IIRC the 3k bid was at 12.02 or so.
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Fireball (OP)
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November 27, 2012, 06:52:02 PM |
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Fireball, somewhere along the line you've introduced (or enhanced) a serious memory leak.
I open the futures page, and it's using 62Mb in Chromium. By the time it grows to 300Mb, I gotta restart my browser.Today, that only took about 1.5hrs.
It's gotten very bad in the last week I think - but seems like the leak was introduced prior to that (I've been wondering why my machine has become progressively slower to wake up, pulling what has turned out to be the icbit page up out of swap space. (I only have 1GB of ram in my main machine)
Oh, I'm going to check! |
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segabtc
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November 30, 2012, 07:43:17 PM |
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hmmm gonna be fun watching this clearing tonight! somebody might get taken out today!
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ThePok
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November 30, 2012, 08:00:45 PM |
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when do the new usd/btc futures start?
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segabtc
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November 30, 2012, 08:11:29 PM |
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I think fireball is working on the next futures, he just hasn't stated when the next ones are coming out. Really surprised about the last 24 hours, thought for sure someone was gonna get taken out today. need more cowbell (volitility)!
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