I'm All In - Sold My House!

[gentlemand]

My main worry is that the bitcoin as the de facto arbiter of this technology will take too many beatings in the public eye before it can grow its wings. In the meantime, something else could come along that gains traction quickly with no negative media and starts to outpace BTC.

Yes - thats my concern too.

Whenever I read stuff written by Bitcoin sceptics they never seem to preclude the idea of a cryptocurrency - they just seem down on Bitcoin in particular. Silk Road ? I dunno. Its like they are waiting for a new clean sexy cryptocurrency and then they'll be ready to jump on board. But not yet, and not with bitcoin. Maybe they are pissed off at not having had the insight to have adopted it earlier, or some such.

Of course, as time goes on (and on), the BTC protocol becomes stronger and more trusted (if only for being still present/with us/having survived) - and so, wether the sceptics like it or not, it will slowly but surely creep into the collective consciousness.

And I reckon that when it comes to cryptocurrencies a timeserved apprenticeship is a big bonus. For every Mt. Gox BTC is one step closer to graduation (I hope)


With regard the OP ...

Bitcoin is still so young that you shouldn't need to invest a fortune to get rich if it realizes its potential.

...this.

The more blood and guts there is now, the more trusted it'll be in the future if it can pass beyond it.

It's appalling what many Bitcoiners have been subjected to in terms of scams and failures. If it is still standing once the majority of evil has been flushed out of the ecosystem, that can bode well for future strength.

I think this year might be the key one for leaping beyond its nefarious early history.

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[knightcoin]

My main worry is that the bitcoin as the de facto arbiter of this technology will take too many beatings in the public eye before it can grow its wings. In the meantime, something else could come along that gains traction quickly with no negative media and starts to outpace BTC.

Yes - thats my concern too.

Whenever I read stuff written by Bitcoin sceptics they never seem to preclude the idea of a cryptocurrency - they just seem down on Bitcoin in particular. Silk Road ? I dunno. Its like they are waiting for a new clean sexy cryptocurrency and then they'll be ready to jump on board. But not yet, and not with bitcoin. Maybe they are pissed off at not having had the insight to have adopted it earlier, or some such.

Of course, as time goes on (and on), the BTC protocol becomes stronger and more trusted (if only for being still present/with us/having survived) - and so, wether the sceptics like it or not, it will slowly but surely creep into the collective consciousness.

And I reckon that when it comes to cryptocurrencies a timeserved apprenticeship is a big bonus. For every Mt. Gox BTC is one step closer to graduation (I hope)


With regard the OP ...

Bitcoin is still so young that you shouldn't need to invest a fortune to get rich if it realizes its potential.

...this.

The more blood and guts there is now, the more trusted it'll be in the future if it can pass beyond it.

It's appalling what many Bitcoiners have been subjected to in terms of scams and failures. If it is still standing once the majority of evil has been flushed out of the ecosystem, that can bode well for future strength.

I think this year might be the key one for leaping beyond its nefarious early history.

Blood propaganda ... reminds me Topsy the Elephant ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkBU3aYsf0Q

:-(

[Spaceman_Spiff]

When I saw this thread a dark realization came upon me, we had not yet reached a sustained reversal.

This decision was made in March of last year.  Please don't use the OP to judge current sentiment (although you might use the replies for that purpose).  (I am not making any predictions about a sustained reversal though)

[MatTheCat]

When I saw this thread a dark realization came upon me, we had not yet reached a sustained reversal.

I am also becoming increasingly convinced that we haven't, or at least feel that we are going a good bit lower than where we are now at least testing the previous low if not actually breaching it.

Trading has been very strange lately. Absolutely nothing and then big bursts all at once, both to upside and to downside......as though there were very little organic interest but some big fishes are making big splashes all at once. Dangerous times. Most holders of Bitcoin are holding for future USD gains. Most Bitcoin trading is done by speculators looking to make USD gains in the present. But the whole game is held together by increasing interest at prices that don't scare away new capital. If Bitcoin isn't making people money, or even losing people money, then why hold it?

What is needed to support price is increased functional adoption, which will come but saving for some economic crisis, will take some quite some time. Otherwise, another mad rush into Bitcoin is required. I am sure this will happen again at some point but I can't see where it is going to come from at the time being.

[sgbett]

Rewind to the beginning of 2009. I had a pension fund with skandia, it was managed and was split between three middle of the road ETF's. It had obviously suffered a bit due to the events of 2008.

A while before that I'd got a MacBook Pro, which I'd bought primarily as a result of having got an iPhone some time before that. I did this on the recommendation of a friend who's opinion I respected when my then current (linux) laptop was stolen, and I was trying to find a replacement.

I saw the products Apple was putting out. They seemed to value quality over price. I liked what I bought. I believed in them as a company.

So much so that I took my pension and moved it to a SIPP. For those that don't know a SIPP is a wrapper that allows you to control how your pension pot is invested. After forking over the fees necessary to switch providers (gotta love the financial industry taking a bite out of everything you do) I put it all into AAPL stock.

At the time, the sentiment towards AAPL was the same as the sentiment towards BTC right now. Anyone that I told what I had done said I was crazy, I shouldn't risk my future on some crazy gamble. As it turns out over the next few years I averaged out of AAPL and diversified into a few other companies. This was the "sensible" thing to do. I hated doing it, but I knew I probably should. Wouldn't you know it, if I'd just left it in AAPL I'd be doing far better - even after the slide from $700 back down to today's prices.

The point of this anecdote, is that I bought AAPL because I believed in it. I know full well it could have gone the other way. I feel exactly the same way about BTC.

To be clear, what this post means is that I would rather lose all my money investing in things that I fundamentally believe are great. I think if you play it safe every single time life throws an opportunity your way, then the only thing you can be sure of is that you will never, ever, realise the benefits of those opportunities. Whilst some people might be cool with that, what they fail to miss is that they don't guarantee that bad stuff won't happen.

Humans are shit at risk. Risk is probability, life is outcomes. Life doesn't do probabilities, it is concrete outcome. The probability of something having happened is no consolation to the person it happened to.

If bad shit is gonna happen to me, then I'd like to have been the person responsible for it, rather than the person who blames their shitty luck.

[sgbett]

When I saw this thread a dark realization came upon me, we had not yet reached a sustained reversal.

I am also becoming increasingly convinced that we haven't, or at least feel that we are going a good bit lower than where we are now at least testing the previous low if not actually breaching it.

Trading has been very strange lately. Absolutely nothing and then big bursts all at once, both to upside and to downside......as though there were very little organic interest but some big fishes are making big splashes all at once. Dangerous times. Most holders of Bitcoin are holding for future USD gains. Most Bitcoin trading is done by speculators looking to make USD gains in the present. But the whole game is held together by increasing interest at prices that don't scare new capital. If Bitcoin isn't making people money, or even losing people money, then why hold it?

What is needed to support price is increased functional adoption, which will come but saving for some economic crisis, will take some quite some time. Otherwise, another mad rush into Bitcoin is required. I am sure this will happen again at some point but I can't see where it is going to come from at the time being.

Run, Forrest.

[MatTheCat]

Run, Forrest.

sgbett, making a 'retard' jibe, at me!? Well I never!

Dear oh dear oh dear.

Erm.......How are the old Goxbux going Mr Bett?

Get yourself some cheap Bitcoins there didya?

Where do you obtain this kind of information?

The markets tell me by the way they crash into the fucking dirt first sign of anything scary happening with Bitcoin.

[MatTheCat]

I think you are holding the charts too close to your face.

Hmm yes, very good.

I shall politely remind you that you not even once have you called the square root of fuck all remotely correctly since I started tuning in here but I congratulate you on your immunity to your Bitcoin's USD worth. I wish I could be so free of Bitcoin stress like you, except that I don't as being a latecomer I would be in the fkn poorhouse if I were to adopt such a fkn numbskulled attitude towards my finances.

Holliday. Zero market acumen, but good for a smart arse comment or two.

I bid you good day.

[Ibian]

I think you are holding the charts too close to your face.

Hmm yes, very good.

I shall politely remind you that you not even once have you called the square root of fuck all remotely correctly since I started tuning in here but I congratulate you on your immunity to your Bitcoin's USD worth. I wish I could be so free of Bitcoin stress like you, except that I don't as being a latecomer I would be in the fkn poorhouse if I were to adopt such a fkn numbskulled attitude towards my finances.

Holliday. Zero market acumen, but good for a smart arse comment or two.

I bid you good day.

I predict that you will still be bitching about manipulation at 20k. Will be bumping this when it happens.

[MatTheCat]

I predict that you will still be bitching about manipulation at 20k. Will be bumping this when it happens.

I have no Bitcoin positions.

I couldn't give a rats arse if some whale wants to plunge 3 million USD in and out of market right now. Infact, I feel a great relief that I am not playing at the moment as I witness these erratic and unforsesable spikes up n down.

What is forseeable is the creeping price slide back to test the previous low. Enjoy watching your net worth evaporate further, suckers.

[knightcoin]

Run, Forrest.

sgbett, making a 'retard' jibe, at me!? Well I never!

Dear oh dear oh dear.

Erm.......How are the old Goxbux going Mr Bett?

Get yourself some cheap Bitcoins there didya?

Where do you obtain this kind of information?

The markets tell me by the way they crash into the fucking dirt first sign of anything scary happening with Bitcoin.

it's reminds me when I started play poker years ago ... I was kind of tight player, playing tight all the time and it's makes out of trouble.. but on the middle game, my stakes wasn't' big enough to play properly  ... then I started watch more closely the aggressive players strategy ...  and how they basically push you to make the hard decision and they plays with the opponents fears ... and in the end of the game I lost...

Now every-time I play poker I know that the time I buy the poker chips I already lost everything ... that's the only way to play properly ... quoting the book "五輪書 Go Rin No Sho"  the Way of the warrior is resolute acceptance of death. But Again .. it's not an advice to anyone .. its just the way my philosophy about investments and bets works for myself ... in cryptocoins.. I am such a hodl with my mined coins and such a gambler when I buy coins ...

ps-> I know that poker strategy vary a lot from cash games, limit, no-limit, tournaments etc ...

[RobFordWotWot]

[chopstick]

If Bitcoin ever hits 50k per coin, which it probably will, then 648 bitcoins would be worth...

648x50k = 32.4 million

Not too shabby...

[RobFordWotWot]

If Bitcoin ever hits 50k per coin, which it probably will, then 648 bitcoins would be worth...

648x50k = 32.4 million

Not too shabby...

1k, 50k, not much of a jump.

[MOB]

If Bitcoin ever hits 50k per coin, which it probably will, then 648 bitcoins would be worth...

648x50k = 32.4 million

Not too shabby...

1k, 50k, not much of a jump.

Same as 24 to 1200, somewhat.

[RobFordWotWot]

If Bitcoin ever hits 50k per coin, which it probably will, then 648 bitcoins would be worth...

648x50k = 32.4 million

Not too shabby...

1k, 50k, not much of a jump.

Same as 24 to 1200, somewhat.

[ruletheworld]

If Bitcoin ever hits 50k per coin, which it probably will, then 648 bitcoins would be worth...

648x50k = 32.4 million

Not too shabby...

1k, 50k, not much of a jump.

Same as 24 to 1200, somewhat.

Not really.

[sgbett]

Run, Forrest.

sgbett, making a 'retard' jibe, at me!? Well I never!

Dear oh dear oh dear.

Erm.......How are the old Goxbux going Mr Bett?

You really, *really* need to watch that film again, if you think he was a retard.

Goxcoins are right now worth exactly what I expected them to be worth. What you fail to see is they still constitute opportunity. You see I have turned risk on its head, I have locked in my maximum loss. That "loss" is the cost of insuring myself against the unlikely event that what I had in their pays out a percentage.

Consider the scenario instead where you keep your premium, so you can be sure that is all you will ever have. Now consider gox actually pays 0.2BTC on the bitcoin. Your opportunity loss is around 400% (it was easy enough to pick up gox for 0.05BTC on the bitcoin). If they pay out more, say 50% your loss is around 1000%.

I fix my costs, and leave my upside unlimited. Mostly, everyone else in the world does the opposite.

Forrest Gump, fictional though he is, is one of the smartest people I can think of. Unencumbered by society's preconceived ideas about what you should and shouldn't do. Able to truly live life freely. I can only aspire to be that special.

[ae86]

so now that you are homeless, i have a couch you can crash on, 1btc/night

[sgbett]

I predict that you will still be bitching about manipulation at 20k. Will be bumping this when it happens.

I have no Bitcoin positions.

I couldn't give a rats arse if some whale wants to plunge 3 million USD in and out of market right now. Infact, I feel a great relief that I am not playing at the moment as I witness these erratic and unforsesable spikes up n down.

What is forseeable is the creeping price slide back to test the previous low. Enjoy watching your net worth evaporate further, suckers.

You know every day I wake up I have no less bitcoin than when I went to sleep.

I'm not sure that constitutes 'evaporation'.