It's shocking how much changed over the course of a few days. Disappointingly, it seems that this will now most likely become a repeat of 2016: Sanders vs <establishment>, establishment wins the primary, Sanders immediately falls in line, Trump wins the general. Boring...
Biden is a terrible, terrible candidate in either the primary or the general. He can barely get a comprehensible sentence out, his record isn't too different from a neocon Republican, his current policies aren't too different from Hillary, etc. But now he's the only establishment option. It's
possible that he'll perform so poorly at 1v1 debates and in public that Sanders will be able to win, but IMO it's not that likely, and my fantasy of a contested convention seems especially unlikely. (If Sanders does win, maybe they'll try to change the rules in order to steal it from him, or do other shenanigans, though? I can dream...)
It may honestly be strategic for Biden to refuse to go to any debates or even appear in public anymore. He was able to win because people were in a panic about Bernie and had forgotten about just how awful Biden's been for the past year, but they'll probably soon be thinking, "Oh God, why did we settle on
Biden of all people?".
I used to think that Biden vs Trump would slightly favor Biden. Biden's
brand represents a return to normalcy, a steady hand at the wheel, a continuation of Obama's presidency, etc. -- things that are pretty popular after Trump's chaos --, and Biden is much more likable than Hillary, even now. But after seeing Biden's actual performance and clear mental decline, I think that Trump will destroy him on the debate stage and in any other context where there is not a filter between Biden and the public. Trump will constantly talk about Ukraine, the "creepy uncle Joe" stuff, Biden's record, etc., and Biden has proven that he cannot handle this at all effectively. On the other hand, Bloomberg will apparently be throwing tons of money at Biden (though that totally failed in the primary...) and maybe also manipulating the stock market to hurt Trump. At this point, I'd give Biden a 15% chance of winning the presidency if the economy is looking OK, and a 50% chance in a recession.
With Biden, a recession becomes less likely, so the chance of a Democrat winner also becomes less likely. If Sanders was a big probability, then there was a risk of a death spiral of "market goes down -> fear that Trump will lose & Sanders will win -> market goes down even more over fears of Sanders -> etc." If the Democrats' only goal was to win against Trump, then they should've gone with Sanders for this and other reasons. That said, I thought even before the virus that a recession was entirely possible in the second half of the year (mostly due to the reliance on and unsustainability of the constantly-expanding liquidity injections), and it's even more likely now with the virus actively damaging this unstable economy.
Looks like Warren staying in cost Bernie MA and MN.
Early on, there was a lot of overlap between Warren and Bernie voters, but now I'm not so sure. Doesn't everyone know by now that Warren isn't just a female younger Bernie, but is an institutionalist Democrat
first and a progressive second? IMO she retains support only among people who are OK with that (which turns out not to be that many people), and I think that her voters would've split something like 40% Bernie / 30% Bloomberg / 30% Biden if she'd've dropped out.
Warren will never endorse Bernie: she'll either stay to the end and hope for a miracle, or endorse Biden.
What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?
I don't think so. Biden's team will want to pick someone who both already has a large base of support and who ticks a lot of demographic boxes. Pete is gay, but that's probably not enough. I'd guess Stacy Abrams or Kamala Harris for VP, both of whom are black women: two very important demographic boxes to tick. Stacy Abrams is considered to be part of the progressive wing of the party, so choosing her would be seen as attempting to unify the party, though I don't think that the establishment wing actually cares about that, so I'd put my money on Harris.
Pete will probably get a good cabinet position, which will bulk up his resumé for when he inevitably runs for president again someday.