2020 Democrats

[squatz1]

Looks like Warren staying in cost Bernie MA and MN.  Biden didn't even campaign in either state and it looks like he's going to win both by 5+%


Big congrats to Bloomberg

Could say the same about Bloomberg hurting Biden, as his voters second choice would've been Biden. Not like Bloomberg had a great performance, but it would've allowed Biden to further stretch his popular vote lead and his delegate count lead on Bernie.

California is going to take sometime to come out -- mostly due to the fact that they accept ballots that were postmarked yesterday, and I'm pretty sure they have like 20 percent of their people mailing in the ballots.

Was a great night for Biden, he's probably going to have a pretty good delegate haul. Bloomberg wasted hundreds of millions of dollars and only got a few delegates -- which could change based on if he is viable in California (as he is currently at 14.3 in the state with around 87 percent reporting) Talk about being taken for a ride.


I've spoken too soon -- Bloomberg is officially ending his presidential bid and endorsing biden. Guy spent 500 million dollars to just have to leave the race. (Source - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/bloomberg-suspends-presidential-race-after-super-tuesday-losses) I guess we can expect to see Warren drop out soon -- if she doesn't the progressives are going to hate her forever.

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[PrimeNumber7]

Mini Mike Bloomberg announced he is dropping out and will endorse Biden.

This basically sets up a two man race between Sanders and Biden.

It now looks unlikely there will be a contested convention as the candidates that dropped out have only about 130 delegates out of 3979 (3.2%). Warren likely cost Sanders from winning the majority of delegates last night and she has no realistic path to victory going into last night.

Meanwhile, trump is doing his best to sow discord within the democratic voters, trying to make Sanders supporters believe that the DNC is trying to prevent him from getting the nomination, which is probably true, and by pointing out that Warren cost Sanders MA.

[fillippone]

Not a great expert about US Politics.

What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?

[TwitchySeal]

Not a great expert about US Politics.

What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?

My guess is no because Pete is a white male that probably has the least amount of supporters that would vote if he were on the ticket, but not other wise.  A non-white and/or female would probably turn out the most votes, so Kamala/Amy/Stacy Abrams are probably more likely.

Personally I'm hoping I'm wrong just so we can watch Pete debate Mike 'No Homo' Pence.

Could say the same about Bloomberg hurting Biden, as his voters second choice would've been Biden. Not like Bloomberg had a great performance, but it would've allowed Biden to further stretch his popular vote lead and his delegate count lead on Bernie.

You're absolutely right.  Bloomberg is forecast to walk away with ~100 delegates.  That could easily make a very big difference.
Also, Amy and Pete got a combined 200,000 votes in CA, I assume nearly all from early voters.

[fillippone]

Not a great expert about US Politics.

What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?

My guess is no because Pete is a white male that probably has the least amount of supporters that would vote if he were on the ticket, but not other wise.  A non-white and/or female would probably turn out the most votes, so Kamala/Amy/Stacy Abrams are probably more likely.

Personally I'm hoping I'm wrong just so we can watch Pete debate Mike 'No Homo' Pence.

I was thinking also because it would provide Pete a sort of "internship" for the 2024 election, or the one where the Dems will actually have a chance of winning the White House.

[PrimeNumber7]

Not a great expert about US Politics.

What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?

My guess is no because Pete is a white male that probably has the least amount of supporters that would vote if he were on the ticket, but not other wise.  A non-white and/or female would probably turn out the most votes, so Kamala/Amy/Stacy Abrams are probably more likely.

Personally I'm hoping I'm wrong just so we can watch Pete debate Mike 'No Homo' Pence.

I believe Biden already said he is going to have a Women or a person of color on his ticket as VP. Mayor Pete is neither of these.

[TwitchySeal]

Not a great expert about US Politics.

What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?

My guess is no because Pete is a white male that probably has the least amount of supporters that would vote if he were on the ticket, but not other wise.  A non-white and/or female would probably turn out the most votes, so Kamala/Amy/Stacy Abrams are probably more likely.

Personally I'm hoping I'm wrong just so we can watch Pete debate Mike 'No Homo' Pence.

I was thinking also because it would provide Pete a sort of "internship" for the 2024 election, or the one where the Dems will actually have a chance of winning the White House.

I'm guessing Biden will give Pete whatever reasonable cabinet/ambassador spot he wants.

[DireWolfM14]

I was thinking also because it would provide Pete a sort of "internship" for the 2024 election, or the one where the Dems will actually have a chance of winning the White House.

I doubt Buttigieg will ever make it to the Presidency.  He's too fake, and no matter how much he tries to emulate or "channel" that Obama flair as an orator, he's going to keep falling flat.  The differences being Obama's charisma, Buttigieg doesn't have it; Obama's sincerity, Buttigieg doesn't have it.  The next four years of being in the public eye will only expose Pete for the fake that he is.  He may be given a cabinet position in a future Democratic administration, or he may be able to take one of Indiana's senate or congressional seats, but that's as far as I see him going.

The media's love affair with Buttigieg is will fade fast, just like it did with Michael Avenatti Creepy Porn Lawyer.

[TECSHARE]

Not a great expert about US Politics.

What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?

My guess is no because Pete is a white male that probably has the least amount of supporters that would vote if he were on the ticket, but not other wise.  A non-white and/or female would probably turn out the most votes, so Kamala/Amy/Stacy Abrams are probably more likely.

Personally I'm hoping I'm wrong just so we can watch Pete debate Mike 'No Homo' Pence.

I believe Biden already said he is going to have a Women or a person of color on his ticket as VP. Mayor Pete is neither of these.

Michael Robinson?

[theymos]

It's shocking how much changed over the course of a few days. Disappointingly, it seems that this will now most likely become a repeat of 2016: Sanders vs <establishment>, establishment wins the primary, Sanders immediately falls in line, Trump wins the general. Boring...

Biden is a terrible, terrible candidate in either the primary or the general. He can barely get a comprehensible sentence out, his record isn't too different from a neocon Republican, his current policies aren't too different from Hillary, etc. But now he's the only establishment option. It's possible that he'll perform so poorly at 1v1 debates and in public that Sanders will be able to win, but IMO it's not that likely, and my fantasy of a contested convention seems especially unlikely. (If Sanders does win, maybe they'll try to change the rules in order to steal it from him, or do other shenanigans, though? I can dream...)

It may honestly be strategic for Biden to refuse to go to any debates or even appear in public anymore. He was able to win because people were in a panic about Bernie and had forgotten about just how awful Biden's been for the past year, but they'll probably soon be thinking, "Oh God, why did we settle on Biden of all people?".

I used to think that Biden vs Trump would slightly favor Biden. Biden's brand represents a return to normalcy, a steady hand at the wheel, a continuation of Obama's presidency, etc. -- things that are pretty popular after Trump's chaos --, and Biden is much more likable than Hillary, even now.  But after seeing Biden's actual performance and clear mental decline, I think that Trump will destroy him on the debate stage and in any other context where there is not a filter between Biden and the public. Trump will constantly talk about Ukraine, the "creepy uncle Joe" stuff, Biden's record, etc., and Biden has proven that he cannot handle this at all effectively. On the other hand, Bloomberg will apparently be throwing tons of money at Biden (though that totally failed in the primary...) and maybe also manipulating the stock market to hurt Trump. At this point, I'd give Biden a 15% chance of winning the presidency if the economy is looking OK, and a 50% chance in a recession.

With Biden, a recession becomes less likely, so the chance of a Democrat winner also becomes less likely. If Sanders was a big probability, then there was a risk of a death spiral of "market goes down -> fear that Trump will lose & Sanders will win -> market goes down even more over fears of Sanders -> etc." If the Democrats' only goal was to win against Trump, then they should've gone with Sanders for this and other reasons. That said, I thought even before the virus that a recession was entirely possible in the second half of the year (mostly due to the reliance on and unsustainability of the constantly-expanding liquidity injections), and it's even more likely now with the virus actively damaging this unstable economy.

Looks like Warren staying in cost Bernie MA and MN.

Early on, there was a lot of overlap between Warren and Bernie voters, but now I'm not so sure. Doesn't everyone know by now that Warren isn't just a female younger Bernie, but is an institutionalist Democrat first and a progressive second? IMO she retains support only among people who are OK with that (which turns out not to be that many people), and I think that her voters would've split something like 40% Bernie / 30% Bloomberg / 30% Biden if she'd've dropped out.

Warren will never endorse Bernie: she'll either stay to the end and hope for a miracle, or endorse Biden.

What about a Biden- Major Pete (I cannot even type that name) ticket?
Does it makes sense?

I don't think so. Biden's team will want to pick someone who both already has a large base of support and who ticks a lot of demographic boxes. Pete is gay, but that's probably not enough. I'd guess Stacy Abrams or Kamala Harris for VP, both of whom are black women: two very important demographic boxes to tick. Stacy Abrams is considered to be part of the progressive wing of the party, so choosing her would be seen as attempting to unify the party, though I don't think that the establishment wing actually cares about that, so I'd put my money on Harris.

Pete will probably get a good cabinet position, which will bulk up his resumé for when he inevitably runs for president again someday.

[Flying Hellfish]

The Bernie Bros are going to be pissed again, and I think that if Biden is the nominee that guarantees a Trump victory. But ya know, I said Bernie wouldn't have risen to this point -- Flying Hellfish corrected me -- but I GUESS I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG??

The show goes on!

I also said Biden was a dead man walking, Whoa kinda shit the bed on that prediction as well!

Everyone's predictions have changed over the last few months, that's the nature of the game when you try to read the tea leaves.  Bernie is wounded and perhaps mortally so!  What amazes me is how fast shit hit the fan for Bernie's campaign or conversely how big of a difference the 3-4 days around ST was for Biden.  Biden over performed the polls, this wasn't as simple as Amy and Pete's supporters getting on board.  Biden picked up the pete and amy vote, all the undecided votes and turned out the burbs.  Bernie failed to turn out the young voters in any serious numbers.   

No way to spin this Biden had the best possible night he could have hoped for and it was the worst night Bernie could have imagined...

Bernie failed to turn out young voters in any real numbers, his core messaging took a hit last night as that argument is going to ring hollow going forward.

Biden is a terrible, terrible candidate in either the primary or the general. He can barely get a comprehensible sentence out, his record isn't too different from a neocon Republican, his current policies aren't too different from Hillary, etc.

I think the democrats have baked in the Biden "flaws" much in the same way the GOP base has baked in Trump's flaws, it seems like an easy thing for the voters on both sides to do! They have already internally made the bargain that a brain melting creepy gaffe monster is OK if everyone else thinks hes the best shot to beat Trump!

Short of a major medical issue (like a stroke or something), I don't think there is much that Bernie can throw at Biden (or that Biden can say/do) that sticks.

The race isn't over, but Biden undoubtedly took the lead yesterday and is in a great position to have the plurality if not majority of delegates by Milwaukee.  The plurality getter should be the nom whether its Biden or Bernie.

[suchmoon]

Bernie failed to turn out young voters in any real numbers

Same whiny Y/Z-gen who will sit at home come November, blaming DNC conspiracy for not having Bernie as the nominee.

[TECSHARE]

Bernie failed to turn out young voters in any real numbers

Same whiny Y/Z-gen who will sit at home come November, blaming DNC conspiracy for not having Bernie as the nominee.

Shocking that the Democrats can't mobilize voters when they actively conspire to disenfranchise them.

[Juggy777]

Mini Mike Bloomberg announced he is dropping out and will endorse Biden.

This basically sets up a two man race between Sanders and Biden.

It now looks unlikely there will be a contested convention as the candidates that dropped out have only about 130 delegates out of 3979 (3.2%). Warren likely cost Sanders from winning the majority of delegates last night and she has no realistic path to victory going into last night.

Meanwhile, trump is doing his best to sow discord within the democratic voters, trying to make Sanders supporters believe that the DNC is trying to prevent him from getting the nomination, which is probably true, and by pointing out that Warren cost Sanders MA.

@PrimeNumber7 I’m not surprised to see Bloomberg quitting the race as he’s already burned lots of his personal cash for these elections without getting any meaningful results, also it’s pertinent to note that he’s declared his support for Biden so let’s see if it’ll help Biden or not. Further I remember @squatz had already predicted that this might happen, and I too believe that Dems won’t allow Bernie to win and due to this I expect his supporters to vote for Trump.

Source:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/03/04/election-2020-michael-bloomberg-drops-out-of-presidential-race/4951533002/

I still think that the DNC is going to fight tooth and nail to steal this one from Bernie. I have a few theories on how this is going to be done. Obviously all of this is given that Bernie doesn't have a majority of the delegates (1996 delegates, something around that) at the time of the convention:

1. The Moderates Band Together - Not sure who would be the to lead this coalition. But this is pretty much the line of thinking that Pete, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Biden all work together in someway to win the nomination. If they all pooled their polling numbers together, they'd be a true formidable foe to Bernie. They could even keep running at the moment and try to pick up as many delegates as they can, using their delegates on one another.

2. The Re-Rise of Biden - Biden had a strong second place finish in Nevada, exactly what his campaign needed. If he has a real strong finish in South Carolina, like his campaign has been relying HEAVILY on, then he could be back in the race. He'd still need some of the other moderates to drop out to REALLY have a shot, but even without this he could show himself to be the only one who could go against Bernie. Horrible candidate in my eyes, but possible.

[squatz1]

I think one of my biggest questions regarding this race is: Was there a plan beforehand setup with Amy, Pete, and Biden regarding the nomination?

I may be too much of a cynic here, but I think that some of this may have been planned in advance. Pete knew that Bernie would be fighting hard for a win in the early states, as that's where you build the momentum. Pete pretty much uses ALL of his resources in the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire. He had a great result, pretty much tying Bernie in both New Hampshire and in Iowa.Pete was essentially able to cancel out any momentum and news coverage that Bernie may have been able to count on.

Bernie did great in Nevada, yes, but this bought time for everyone else to build up resources in other states and to show the voters that Bernie wasn't going to be able to win the general. That was literally the only thing on the news for DAYS, WEEKS, ETC.

Now Biden will most likely be the nominee, am I too much of a cynic? Let me know.

[coins4commies]

^I'm pretty sure all of that is dead on.  They even had a candiate from every identify checkbox at the end of the race.  This engaged a lot of voters who weren't initially engaged and funneled them to Biden.  My greatest, most far fetched fear is that Bernie is in on it too.  His job would be to motivate progressives into the process and ultimately endorse Biden as he endorsed Hillary. I'm a huge cynic and his reluctance to actually attack Hillary, Biden, or really any of his enemies fuels my suspicion. 

[squatz1]

^I'm pretty sure all of that is dead on.  They even had a candiate from every identify checkbox at the end of the race.  This engaged a lot of voters who weren't initially engaged and funneled them to Biden.  My greatest, most far fetched fear is that Bernie is in on it too.  His job would be to motivate progressives into the process and ultimately endorse Biden as he endorsed Hillary. I'm a huge cynic and his reluctance to actually attack Hillary, Biden, or really any of his enemies fuels my suspicion. 

I cant see Bernie as a part of this process, I'm not that much of a cynic. I think Bernie truly wants to see his progressive vision come to fruition, but it just probably cant happen due to the amount of opposition, among the older generation, about socialism. The older generation associates socialism with the USSR, Vietnam, etc -- they can't accept that at all.

If anyone from the progressive side of things is in on it its Warren. She hasn't stepped aside yet and it may be a deliberate attack to seperate the progressive votes into two, ensuring that Bernie is unable to rack up enough delegates.

Bernie was literally robbed of the primary in 2016, when Clinton was in bed with the DNC and had been funneling money from the DNC to her own campaign. That's something that's supposed to have happen after the nominee is chosen, not when you're in a bitter fight for the nomination. This is not what is happening now, if Biden wins (and gets the majority) he'll have won fair and square. Bernie bros are still going to be made, but still a democratic process.

[suchmoon]

I may be too much of a cynic here, but I think that some of this may have been planned in advance. Pete knew that Bernie would be fighting hard for a win in the early states, as that's where you build the momentum. Pete pretty much uses ALL of his resources in the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire. He had a great result, pretty much tying Bernie in both New Hampshire and in Iowa.Pete was essentially able to cancel out any momentum and news coverage that Bernie may have been able to count on.

This is indistinguishable from a no-conspiracy scenario: niche candidate betting the farm on the first states to gain some media coverage. Happens every time and nobody remembers them a few weeks later.

[squatz1]

I may be too much of a cynic here, but I think that some of this may have been planned in advance. Pete knew that Bernie would be fighting hard for a win in the early states, as that's where you build the momentum. Pete pretty much uses ALL of his resources in the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire. He had a great result, pretty much tying Bernie in both New Hampshire and in Iowa.Pete was essentially able to cancel out any momentum and news coverage that Bernie may have been able to count on.

This is indistinguishable from a no-conspiracy scenario: niche candidate betting the farm on the first states to gain some media coverage. Happens every time and nobody remembers them a few weeks later.

Eh, yeah. You're right.

Just typically doesn't happen so often that that niche candidate does well in BOTH Iowa and in New Hampshire. Typically they dump all their resources into one or the other. I also think that Amy, Pete, and Biden are all one from the same. They all said that they were having a political revolution, but they're all literally just establishment dems.

[squatz1]

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Her best return on investment is going to be endorsing Biden, she’ll probably get a VP or high cabinet position for that.

Endorsing Bernie though would make the most sense based on her views. Biden is just more of the same, and I’m pretty sure she has said that. Bernie is calling for change, like her.

I’ll update this for whoever she endorses