🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[Hanadawa]

It just that based on what Dana mentioned, also concluded that Mokaev is unlikely to be able to return to UFC in the near future even though he is still very young, I actually think that Mokaev might have to repeat everything from the bottom.
Indeed, no one knows what the future will be like, but the chances of returning still look quite small for the near future.

In his upload on X Mokaev seems to realize his mistake and he wants to return to UFC as soon as possible. In my personal opinion this should be a lesson for Mokaev and his management. There is news that this is the Manager's mistake because he has talked to the PFL and used the contract to negotiate with the UFC. This is like an insult to the UFC and Dana White so that the UFC officially stopped extending the contract with Mokaev. Sadly, currently the PFL promoter has denied allegations that they have negotiated with Mokaev's management. IMO if it is true that there have been previous negotiations then the current situation is not beneficial for Mokaev's team so that the PFL will ask for a new contract with a lower salary.

[TopTort777]

^  Oof Israel Adesanya and his fellow CKB guys could be in for a ride.  I don't think they have a chance against Erceg and Gamrot, tho I'm back and forth with DDP and Adesanya.

I have seen Adesanya telling that he isnt interested in getting belt, but he only wants to rip DDP head off He has said that he was already champ twice (probably talks about having belt and winning it back from Pereira), and belt itself isnt motivating him anymore. Now we have that big pause after his fight against Strickland, and might be that now the decrease of his career starts. I will pick DDP this time. Strickland showed that techniques of Izzy can be beaten with simple defence, add strong chin of DDP and I see a winner of this fight

[Inwestour]

I have seen Adesanya telling that he isnt interested in getting belt, but he only wants to rip DDP head off He has said that he was already champ twice (probably talks about having belt and winning it back from Pereira), and belt itself isnt motivating him anymore. Now we have that big pause after his fight against Strickland, and might be that now the decrease of his career starts. I will pick DDP this time. Strickland showed that techniques of Izzy can be beaten with simple defence, add strong chin of DDP and I see a winner of this fight

He can talk about motivation as much as he wants, but the most important thing is that a fighter can find it in anything, if he doesn't see motivation in the belt, let him find it in becoming a champion. I'll probably agree that Adesanya has passed the peak of his career and will now gradually descend from the top, if not with DDP, then with the next fighters. By the way, the odds 2.1 for DDP to win are not bad, but according to bookmakers, Adesanya remains the favorite for this fight with 1,72.

[TopTort777]

I have seen Adesanya telling that he isnt interested in getting belt, but he only wants to rip DDP head off He has said that he was already champ twice (probably talks about having belt and winning it back from Pereira), and belt itself isnt motivating him anymore. Now we have that big pause after his fight against Strickland, and might be that now the decrease of his career starts. I will pick DDP this time. Strickland showed that techniques of Izzy can be beaten with simple defence, add strong chin of DDP and I see a winner of this fight

He can talk about motivation as much as he wants, but the most important thing is that a fighter can find it in anything, if he doesn't see motivation in the belt, let him find it in becoming a champion. I'll probably agree that Adesanya has passed the peak of his career and will now gradually descend from the top, if not with DDP, then with the next fighters. By the way, the odds 2.1 for DDP to win are not bad, but according to bookmakers, Adesanya remains the favorite for this fight with 1,72.

I dont know how much you pay attention to his life and career, but here are some facts. He run already a luxurious life, drives lambo, own a penthouse, has a lot of money (I think I saw numbers, that he get close to a million per every fight just from UFC under his contract, plus bonuses and contracts), fought for 14 years already, was a champ in kickboxing and UFC. I dont think he has much of a motivation to continue fighting on a very peak level. I think he wont get be very disappointed if he did not win this time.

[cabron]

I have seen Adesanya telling that he isnt interested in getting belt, but he only wants to rip DDP head off He has said that he was already champ twice (probably talks about having belt and winning it back from Pereira), and belt itself isnt motivating him anymore. Now we have that big pause after his fight against Strickland, and might be that now the decrease of his career starts. I will pick DDP this time. Strickland showed that techniques of Izzy can be beaten with simple defence, add strong chin of DDP and I see a winner of this fight

He can talk about motivation as much as he wants, but the most important thing is that a fighter can find it in anything, if he doesn't see motivation in the belt, let him find it in becoming a champion. I'll probably agree that Adesanya has passed the peak of his career and will now gradually descend from the top, if not with DDP, then with the next fighters. By the way, the odds 2.1 for DDP to win are not bad, but according to bookmakers, Adesanya remains the favorite for this fight with 1,72.

I dont know how much you pay attention to his life and career, but here are some facts. He run already a luxurious life, drives lambo, own a penthouse, has a lot of money (I think I saw numbers, that he get close to a million per every fight just from UFC under his contract, plus bonuses and contracts), fought for 14 years already, was a champ in kickboxing and UFC. I dont think he has much of a motivation to continue fighting on a very peak level. I think he wont get be very disappointed if he did not win this time.

That's a good point. Probably true for any other athletes who have had success for years. Hard to motivate someone with a lavish lifestyle and who has everything. Win or lose he still will get his pay.

If Izzy loses this fight I think it will continue down the road til consecutive losses. If he still wins I guess he still has it and I think they really need to make a trilogy for Pereira to make another huge pay before any of them retires.

[pawel7777]

I have seen Adesanya telling that he isnt interested in getting belt, but he only wants to rip DDP head off (...)

We've all seen him claiming he's Chinese, so not sure how seriously should we be taking anything he says.
I have my doubts if he would actually want to fight DDP if not for the belt (and money).

(..) I'll probably agree that Adesanya has passed the peak of his career and will now gradually descend from the top,(...)

There's probably a lot of truth to it, but it's also that his style is no longer surprising to anyone and is therefore less effective. When he got to the top, all the contenders started to thoroughly analyse every aspect of his game and some like Strickland/Blachowicz/Pereira managed to defeat him. And, at this stage of his career, he won't be able to make any radical changes.

[tokeweed]

^  Oof Israel Adesanya and his fellow CKB guys could be in for a ride.  I don't think they have a chance against Erceg and Gamrot, tho I'm back and forth with DDP and Adesanya.

I have seen Adesanya telling that he isnt interested in getting belt, but he only wants to rip DDP head off He has said that he was already champ twice (probably talks about having belt and winning it back from Pereira), and belt itself isnt motivating him anymore. Now we have that big pause after his fight against Strickland, and might be that now the decrease of his career starts. I will pick DDP this time. Strickland showed that techniques of Izzy can be beaten with simple defence, add strong chin of DDP and I see a winner of this fight

Yeah we'll see...  The books got Adesanya as the slight favorite at 1.85 and with the event organized in Australia I'm pretty sure his line goes lower as they pour more money into his line while DDP's line goes up making him a value bet. 

But as said, I'm back and forth for this match up.  A part of me wants Adesanya's line to go up over 2.00.  Lol.

Anyway, the Contender Series is back.  If you guys missed the fights you could watch it here...

https://www.mma-core.com/events/Dana_White%27s_Contender_Series_-_Contender_Series_2024_Week_1/100227

The vids are at the right side. 

[TopTort777]

The reason why bookies see Izzy as a favorite imho is because they take into considerstion his past achievements more than his shape and mental preparation. I think you have forgotten how boring Izzy became when he got belt for first time. You can say this is because he was more cautious, but he defended the belt by UD, but not by total dominance and knocking out. Imho he did not want to risk, get his paycheck and chill. Isnt motivated to win. Imho he isnt motivated much to get belt back and clear whole division again.

[bbc.reporter]

I have a speculation on Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker. Similar to Muhammad Mokaev, I speculate that the UFC might suggest to Mateusz Gamrot that he should decrease his wrestling because wrestling is boring. I reckon this will certainly be very much more favourable for Dan Hooker and I predict he will have the victory hehehhehe. There might also be others like this for the other fights in the UFC. I am very skeptical on uncle Dana because he did not say or act negatively that Mokaev's statement was not a true statement. If the UFC is speaking to fighters on how they fight, this is for certain manipulation.

[Hirose UK]

It just that based on what Dana mentioned, also concluded that Mokaev is unlikely to be able to return to UFC in the near future even though he is still very young, I actually think that Mokaev might have to repeat everything from the bottom.
Indeed, no one knows what the future will be like, but the chances of returning still look quite small for the near future.

In his upload on X Mokaev seems to realize his mistake and he wants to return to UFC as soon as possible. In my personal opinion this should be a lesson for Mokaev and his management. There is news that this is the Manager's mistake because he has talked to the PFL and used the contract to negotiate with the UFC. This is like an insult to the UFC and Dana White so that the UFC officially stopped extending the contract with Mokaev. Sadly, currently the PFL promoter has denied allegations that they have negotiated with Mokaev's management. IMO if it is true that there have been previous negotiations then the current situation is not beneficial for Mokaev's team so that the PFL will ask for a new contract with a lower salary.

Yes, that what I see too, but everything has happened and whatever the circumstances, hopefully Mokaev can soon find new place for him to continue his career as fighter.
It would be shame if his potential is hampered or stopped because he is still very young, we just see how the next developments are and what Mokaev team will do in the future.

~snip~

~snip~

Yeah we'll see...  The books got Adesanya as the slight favorite at 1.85 and with the event organized in Australia I'm pretty sure his line goes lower as they pour more money into his line while DDP's line goes up making him a value bet.  

But as said, I'm back and forth for this match up.  A part of me wants Adesanya's line to go up over 2.00.  Lol.

Anyway, the Contender Series is back.  If you guys missed the fights you could watch it here...

https://www.mma-core.com/events/Dana_White%27s_Contender_Series_-_Contender_Series_2024_Week_1/100227

The vids are at the right side.  

Adesanya is former champion belt holder, he has pretty good fighting style and of course in this fight for the title, it shows lot that Adesanya is the favorite.
But on the other hand, I think that Adesanya and Dricus du Plessis are two fighters who can have their own advantages and I think their chances are almost the same.
Adesanya with his ability can make the fight full and win by decision, but we just see how it goes.
What is clear is that for now Adesanya has increased to @1.87.

[tokeweed]

The reason why bookies see Izzy as a favorite imho is because they take into considerstion his past achievements more than his shape and mental preparation. I think you have forgotten how boring Izzy became when he got belt for first time. You can say this is because he was more cautious, but he defended the belt by UD, but not by total dominance and knocking out. Imho he did not want to risk, get his paycheck and chill. Isnt motivated to win. Imho he isnt motivated much to get belt back and clear whole division again.

Yeah but if you really look into his past performances, he wasn't really knocking guys out or having an optically dominant performances except for the first match up vs Whittaker, the one vs Costa and the Pereira one when he played possum.  But most of his match ups were boring and low volume.

I guess it will depend on the line.  If either DDP or Adesanya goes to 2.35 and up, it's prolly a value bet.  But still dunno...  A part of me wants to see Adesanya KO's DDP.

[cabron]

The reason why bookies see Izzy as a favorite imho is because they take into considerstion his past achievements more than his shape and mental preparation. I think you have forgotten how boring Izzy became when he got belt for first time. You can say this is because he was more cautious, but he defended the belt by UD, but not by total dominance and knocking out. Imho he did not want to risk, get his paycheck and chill. Isnt motivated to win. Imho he isnt motivated much to get belt back and clear whole division again.

Yeah but if you really look into his past performances, he wasn't really knocking guys out or having an optically dominant performances except for the first match up vs Whittaker, the one vs Costa and the Pereira one when he played possum.  But most of his match ups were boring and low volume.

I guess it will depend on the line.  If either DDP or Adesanya goes to 2.35 and up, it's prolly a value bet.  But still dunno...  A part of me wants to see Adesanya KO's DDP.

Izzy is only interested in a stand up fight which he thinks he has the advantage and it must be true.  He will prevent Dricus from taking him down or get closer to him. Its a fair odds I think especially Izzy has been away for a long time but considering what he could do in the cage, 1.87 in his favor is good already.
According to few analyst there will be a KO in this fight, both of them are just eager to prove and they hate each other.

Adesanya calling UFC about their treatment to Ngannou, I think will make him another Dana's enemy in the future though.

[TopTort777]

Where is Welsh? He was always Izzy fan and might know something we dont know about him

I believe it will be hard to take belt from DDP.  As well as I dont see many people who could give him a good fight. Lets suppose DDP wins (because it will be boring if Izzy wins, who he will fight against? All division for the second or third time?), who should he fight next?

[pawel7777]

I have a speculation on Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker. Similar to Muhammad Mokaev, I speculate that the UFC might suggest to Mateusz Gamrot that he should decrease his wrestling because wrestling is boring. I reckon this will certainly be very much more favourable for Dan Hooker and I predict he will have the victory hehehhehe.

Gamrot is very much aware that he needs to be more entertaining to get a chance for a title shot (or a big money fight).
He's not stupid though. He might (and most likely will) engage in a striking exchange, but if it doesn't go his way, he will use his wrestling to make sure he gets the win.
Luckily for him, Hooker does not have a super-solid takedown and submission defence, so Gamrot should be able to finish him off with a submision, or maybe ground-and-pound.

[Hanadawa]

Izzy is only interested in a stand up fight which he thinks he has the advantage and it must be true.-snip-

As far as I know DDP has good wrestling skills and it was surprising when DDP was able to dominate Strickland. But if it was a stand up fight I honestly think Adesanya would be more favored than DDP. Adesanya has very very good striking skills and is like on a different level from other fighters. He has dominated the middleweight division for a long time. In fact Adesanya as a contender is more interesting to watch than Adesanya as a champion lol  .
I remember his fights against Gastelum and Whittaker before he became champion, or when vs Pereira 2 after losing the first meeting. It seems like Adesanya can play more aggressively as a contender. Without underestimating DDP if it was a striking fight I would take Adesanya. But the problem is DDP has a good fighting IQ like when he fought Strickland.

[tokeweed]

The reason why bookies see Izzy as a favorite imho is because they take into considerstion his past achievements more than his shape and mental preparation. I think you have forgotten how boring Izzy became when he got belt for first time. You can say this is because he was more cautious, but he defended the belt by UD, but not by total dominance and knocking out. Imho he did not want to risk, get his paycheck and chill. Isnt motivated to win. Imho he isnt motivated much to get belt back and clear whole division again.

Yeah but if you really look into his past performances, he wasn't really knocking guys out or having an optically dominant performances except for the first match up vs Whittaker, the one vs Costa and the Pereira one when he played possum.  But most of his match ups were boring and low volume.

I guess it will depend on the line.  If either DDP or Adesanya goes to 2.35 and up, it's prolly a value bet.  But still dunno...  A part of me wants to see Adesanya KO's DDP.

Izzy is only interested in a stand up fight which he thinks he has the advantage and it must be true.  He will prevent Dricus from taking him down or get closer to him. Its a fair odds I think especially Izzy has been away for a long time but considering what he could do in the cage, 1.87 in his favor is good already.
According to few analyst there will be a KO in this fight, both of them are just eager to prove and they hate each other.

Adesanya calling UFC about their treatment to Ngannou, I think will make him another Dana's enemy in the future though.

But DDP is a strooong dude...  He'll prolly get at least one TD.  I can't see how Adesanya doesn't get taken down here.  But Adesanya's stand up game is decent so it prolly won't be a big problem.

Anyway you guys see the pre fight press conference?  Rofl.  DDP made Adesanya cry..    The guy pretty good at this.  

UFC 305:  Pre Fight Press Conference  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAcpAT4Y_kQ

Live weigh ins in 10 hours.

UFC 305:  Live Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSZO54RSb7g

And ceremonial weigh ins around 5 hours after that.

UFC 305:  Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raEeVbQ5GWA

Forgot about jeremypwr's Multi Master but it looks like the regs already made their predictions.  

UFC 305:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5505950.0

[TopTort777]

Look on numbers and on a paper. Izzy managed to become a champ. Has defended his belt 6 times. Avenged his biggest rival Pereira. Got his belt back. Would anyone be motivated to kill himself in gym more? DDP, has a strong chin, but a lot of his wins are by a lucky and weird punch. That is not elite striking, that is blocking strikes with head and all of a sudden throw an unexpected lucky strike. More about DDP - I dont know where this guy is good at. Seems he knows everything on average level, and ability to eat strikes with no damages (kind of a Wolverine skill lol) helps him all the time. Weird striking with weird timing.

Btw, hiw many times you remember champions get their belts back? It is easier to get a belt, than return a 

[cabron]

Izzy is only interested in a stand up fight which he thinks he has the advantage and it must be true.-snip-

As far as I know DDP has good wrestling skills and it was surprising when DDP was able to dominate Strickland. But if it was a stand up fight I honestly think Adesanya would be more favored than DDP. Adesanya has very very good striking skills and is like on a different level from other fighters. He has dominated the middleweight division for a long time. In fact Adesanya as a contender is more interesting to watch than Adesanya as a champion lol  .
I remember his fights against Gastelum and Whittaker before he became champion, or when vs Pereira 2 after losing the first meeting. It seems like Adesanya can play more aggressively as a contender. Without underestimating DDP if it was a striking fight I would take Adesanya. But the problem is DDP has a good fighting IQ like when he fought Strickland.

So much for what has been speculated in this fight. To me, the odds still are very close that the first to have struck hard can win instantly. Several predictions have been made already but one that I'm seeing to happen is Adesanya KO'd by Dricus because he is more focused on not being taken down while Dricus can strike out of nowhere. Most of his fights somehow ended in a way where his opponent was struck by an unexpected jab. Like they said, he is awkward and his strikes are unexpected most of the time.

[tokeweed]

Ok folks, here are the weigh in results...  Just one fighter who missed weight by 1.5 lbs but no biggie.  Fight still goes on.  Aguilar will be fined 20% of his money tho.

So yeah, can't wait for the main event with this one.  And I tried talking myself into betting Adesanya but I just can't do it.  I put a small bet on DDP.  My other bet is just a multi leg parlay with Erceg, Gamrot, Roz, Culbao and Song for fun.

Champ Dricus Du Plessis (185) vs Israel Adesanya (184)
Steve Erceg (125.5) vs Kai Kara-France (125)
Mateusz Gamrot (156) vs Dan Hooker (155.5)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (259) vs Tai Tuivasa (265)
Li Jingliang (171) vs Carlos Prates (170)
Junior Tafa (244) vs Valter Walker (252)
Josh Culibao (146) vs Ricardo Ramos (145.5)
Casey O’Neill (125.5) vs Luana Santos (126)
Herbert Burns (146) vs Jack Jenkins (145.5)
Tom Nolan (155.5) vs Alex Reyes (156)
Ricky Glenn (171) vs Song Kenan (171)
Jesus Aguilar (127.5)* vs Stewart Nicoll (126)

*Missed weight

[pawel7777]

According to Chat GPT Fight Analyst Advanced, Adesanya will KO Du Plessis in round 4:



I hope it's wrong though. I don't think it accounts for the fact that Adesanya had some time off and seems to be emotionally unstable even more than before.

Its predictions for other fights:
Gamrot Vs Hooker: Gamrot wins by decision
Kara-France Vs Erceg: Kara-France wins by decision. <-- this one is a bit odd as Erceg is a favorite (odds of x1.47).

Let's wait and see.