2022–23 PBA Commissioner's Cup

[Botnake]

PBA finals  SMB vs TNT game 1 is up.

https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/basketball/philippines/pba-commissioner-cup/tnt-katropa-san-miguel-beermen-5d44f405e37942077d77477f

I'm surprise SMB is the underdog here, I mean heavy underdog because they are +5.5 to get the best odds with best chance.

Doing some experiment here, I like the SMB odds at this game.

SMB -2.5 @ 3.05
SMB and over 198.5 @ 5.00
TNT/SMB (halftime/Full time) @ 11
SMB 26+ @101.

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[LogitechMouse]

PBA finals  SMB vs TNT game 1 is up.

https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/basketball/philippines/pba-commissioner-cup/tnt-katropa-san-miguel-beermen-5d44f405e37942077d77477f

I'm surprise SMB is the underdog here, I mean heavy underdog because they are +5.5 to get the best odds with best chance.

Doing some experiment here, I like the SMB odds at this game.

SMB -2.5 @ 3.05
SMB and over 198.5 @ 5.00
TNT/SMB (halftime/Full time) @ 11
SMB 26+ @101.

Even in Cloudbet where I always bet PBA games, SMB is the underdog there but I'm not surprised because base on the roster and the performance TNT has a better performance compare to SMB. One reason too why SMB is underdog is their standings I think. Anyway, lets just watch them later and lets enjoy. I wish I had some beer on my side while watching 

My prediction will be SMB in 7 Games .

[Botnake]

PBA finals  SMB vs TNT game 1 is up.

https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/basketball/philippines/pba-commissioner-cup/tnt-katropa-san-miguel-beermen-5d44f405e37942077d77477f

I'm surprise SMB is the underdog here, I mean heavy underdog because they are +5.5 to get the best odds with best chance.

Doing some experiment here, I like the SMB odds at this game.

SMB -2.5 @ 3.05
SMB and over 198.5 @ 5.00
TNT/SMB (halftime/Full time) @ 11
SMB 26+ @101.

Even in Cloudbet where I always bet PBA games, SMB is the underdog there but I'm not surprised because base on the roster and the performance TNT has a better performance compare to SMB. One reason too why SMB is underdog is their standings I think. Anyway, lets just watch them later and lets enjoy. I wish I had some beer on my side while watching  

My prediction will be SMB in 7 Games .

I think this line is so fishy, I hope I'm wrong with what's on my mind right now.
Even if SMB is an underdog but they should not be +5.5, I wish we have some update on what's happening inside like the NBA where there's a lot of source of information.

A little update ,SMB is +4.5 now, maybe money are coming in from SMB faithful.


Live now - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-H_WC6A3vY

[goinmerry]

TNT drew the first blood. 109-96

TNT import Terrence Jones producing 41 big points and 12 rebounds. He always breaks SMB's defense even how strong it is.

And another one that kills them is the outside shooting of TNT. I know SMB will do changes next game but still... TNT!

[zhea]

TNT drew the first blood. 109-96

TNT import Terrence Jones producing 41 big points and 12 rebounds. He always breaks SMB's defense even how strong it is.

And another one that kills them is the outside shooting of TNT. I know SMB will do changes next game but still... TNT!

Terrence Jones can score at will and it seems nobody from the SMB side could stop him. No wonder that Houston Rockets is interested in his service once again. Expect a more physical game on game 2 and a low scoring ball game. My bet is under 200, either way.

[GreatArkansas]

TNT import Terrence Jones producing 41 big points and 12 rebounds. He always breaks SMB's defense even how strong it is.

No one can defend Terrence Jones, as I observed, Kelly Nabong can't even do it after Kelly defended Terrence Jones, Chris Ross is on the way but still, he really can't stop the beast import of TNT, Terrence Jones.
What I also observed on Game 1, June Mar Fajardo didn't play too much, or maybe they are just doing the first experiment on game 1 before they will come back? Since SMB is a very well known come-back team in PBA history. Let's wait for the Game 2 then.

[stadus]

What I also observed on Game 1, June Mar Fajardo didn't play too much, or maybe they are just doing the first experiment on game 1 before they will come back? Since SMB is a very well known come-back team in PBA history. Let's wait for the Game 2 then.

He didn't play too much because TNT is playing a fast pace game, they can't win with Fajardo as the center, they need a faster center that can defend Jones, but unfortunately, there's no one from their team.

[LogitechMouse]

TNT drew the first blood. 109-96

TNT import Terrence Jones producing 41 big points and 12 rebounds. He always breaks SMB's defense even how strong it is.

And another one that kills them is the outside shooting of TNT. I know SMB will do changes next game but still... TNT!

Well, as expected. Nobody can stop Jones so he can easily dominate the paint and can pass anytime he wants. He almost got a triple double in their game yesterday.

Even the import of SMB can't guard he is only guarded by a local guard only (Heruela). This is one proof that in terms of roster, TNT's roster is better but I don't think SMB will just sit there and they will come up with a new strategy. They have many experience already especially in this kind of situations.

The first thing that they must do is to stop Jones in his tracks and they must shoot from threes. In terms of threes, TNT dominated on that part.

[Botnake]

SMB just didn't play well last night, and because of that, I lose all my bets I shared here.
I like the situation of the SMB here that they are the underdog, and I don't think they will be sweep in this series so I will keep betting on them.

I am wondering what would be the line for game 2, SMB should be +5 or more, and I'll bet on the ML for that.

[Bttzed03]

What a game 1 beat down. SMB started really well which is unusual because they are known to start slow. I don't know if it's just me but they got lazy in defense and in controlling the board. Well done to TNT.

[zhea]

What a game 1 beat down. SMB started really well which is unusual because they are known to start slow. I don't know if it's just me but they got lazy in defense and in controlling the board. Well done to TNT.

I don't think that they got lazy on the defensive end, it's just that the Katropa's design play click, those kick out pass for a triple and the two man game between Jones and Rosario really did damage on the SMB. If half of those 3's did not go in, SMB would still be in the game but unfortunately the TNT was raining 3's on them. Just as i have said earlier that game 2 would be physical to distract the focal point of the TNT's offense which is Jones.

[Malsetid]

What a game 1 beat down. SMB started really well which is unusual because they are known to start slow. I don't know if it's just me but they got lazy in defense and in controlling the board. Well done to TNT.

I don't think that they got lazy on the defensive end, it's just that the Katropa's design play click, those kick out pass for a triple and the two man game between Jones and Rosario really did damage on the SMB. If half of those 3's did not go in, SMB would still be in the game but unfortunately the TNT was raining 3's on them. Just as i have said earlier that game 2 would be physical to distract the focal point of the TNT's offense which is Jones.

Well if you base it on previous finals performances, one can be sure that SMB will bounce back. I agree that controlling jones would be essential for the beermen to win but their locals also must need to step up. So far, TnT's locals are playing exceptionallu well even before the finals started. I still think smb has the advantage though but that depends on whether junemar and company will step up to match their tnt counterparts.

[Japinat]

What a game 1 beat down. SMB started really well which is unusual because they are known to start slow. I don't know if it's just me but they got lazy in defense and in controlling the board. Well done to TNT.

They will adjust and improve in game 2, I don't see a blow out win again by TNT in case they can still win game 2 to take the series to 2-0.
SMB is a good team but Terrence Jones is a super Import with a real NBA caliber, they should focus on stopping him or minimize his contribution at least.

[Botnake]

What a game 1 beat down. SMB started really well which is unusual because they are known to start slow. I don't know if it's just me but they got lazy in defense and in controlling the board. Well done to TNT.

They will adjust and improve in game 2, I don't see a blow out win again by TNT in case they can still win game 2 to take the series to 2-0.
SMB is a good team but Terrence Jones is a super Import with a real NBA caliber, they should focus on stopping him or minimize his contribution at least.

Betting on SMB in game 2 and maybe double in game 3 if they loss, this is one of the strategy I'm considering of using, if we want to parlay, this is the best time to do it, SMB would not be sweep in this series, it's too much, they have the pride and they'll play harder.

[joshy23]

What I also observed on Game 1, June Mar Fajardo didn't play too much, or maybe they are just doing the first experiment on game 1 before they will come back? Since SMB is a very well known come-back team in PBA history. Let's wait for the Game 2 then.

He didn't play too much because TNT is playing a fast pace game, they can't win with Fajardo as the center, they need a faster center that can defend Jones, but unfortunately, there's no one from their team.

Terrence Jones made a big difference between this two teams, SMB needs to work with their defense as this import can fully dominates the game whoever guarding him, he's unstoppable indeed, the level of his skills showed higher than any players around him if SMB wanted to stay from this series the locals needs to step up and bring the game to their control they need to make a good defensive and offensive adjustments,.

[mirakal]

Will offer if anyone is interested:
@ 1.85 on TNT winning the series
@ 1.85 on San Miguel Beermen winning the series

Max bet 0.01BTC at a time, odds subject to change. Can take an IOU if you have some reputation  

(hopefully I priced this correctly)

Unfortunately, I miss this one. If this is still up with the same odds for TNT, I'm going to put my bet.  

But if not, just never mind this. or maybe we can wait until the series is tied. Then back at this odds.


Thread title update, let's enjoy the Finals series, hopefully this will be a long series.

[DarkStar_]

Will offer if anyone is interested:
@ 1.85 on TNT winning the series
@ 1.85 on San Miguel Beermen winning the series

Max bet 0.01BTC at a time, odds subject to change. Can take an IOU if you have some reputation  

(hopefully I priced this correctly)

Unfortunately, I miss this one. If this is still up with the same odds for TNT, I'm going to put my bet.  

But if not, just never mind this. or maybe we can wait until the series is tied. Then back at this odds.

Not valid any more since TNT is leading 1-0 now 
I will offer it again if it's tied though (and maybe figure out modified odds now that TNT is up 1-0)

[btc78]

SMB is always on the finals (or closed) on the past several Cups/Conference that's why only a few understand today that TNT is capable of beating SMB.

But TNT is the strongest contender SMB can have this season,and I know that they can beat the beer men in finals..it’s not easy to put down Ginebra San Miguel but they did,and now facing the toughest enemy is their final destination

TNT is underrated prior to Commissioner's Cup opening but able to clinch the top spot on eliminations and shows surprising firepower that put them now into Finals. This will be a closed match as we all know that SMB is a complete team starting from their main roster up to their bench squad.

TNT on 6.

Agreed mate actually the best are rolling now in office for the championship,I’ll be putting 50$ for the championship and 10$ each every game for TNT 😅

[harizen]

No one dealt on my offered bet. BTC0.005 - BTC0.01 for TNT.

Since TNT already got the lead, I will offer +1 for SMB this series. They just need to win 3 games and you win.

Valid only today (until 11:59pm Forum time). I won't accept any deal after that. First come first serve or thinking risking up to 5 bettors. Whew.


Outside and perimeter shooting of TNT also destroys SMB's defense. The same way they did against Alaska on Quarterfinals.

The system is; Jones will penetrate the mid, 1 defender = go for the bucket, 2 defenders = either push for a bucket or find open teammates, 3 defenders = will leave their outside shooters uncontested. Jones also has the ability to fake pass that's why defender is confused on which he will pass the ball.

The only way SMB can slowdown TNT's offense are: 1) stop Jones at any cost 2) limit TNT's outside shooting.

[spadormie]

I watched the game between these teams and I saw a back and forth action. It's really fun to watch. I want to give credit to Jones who didn't let his emotion drive himself in the game. Kudos to him. Imagine even the bench of SMB are trashtalking him to complain to the refs.