🏈🏈 The Essential NFL Thread 🏈🏈 - new poll every week

[morvillz7z]

My picks for today, all singles:

Titans (-6.5) - Texans will not play Watson (i'm not sure who their back up is but it doesn't really matter) Hopkins and Fuller are out too.
Packers Halftime/Fulltime - Packers need this to ensure first-round bye and if 49ers lose, to clinch NFC 1st seed and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs
Eagles (-3.5) - 3 game winning streak, i can't really see them lose here, hopefully they cover the spread
Bills ML - I'm not entirely sure if Bills are going to rest their key guys, rumors are Allen will play only play 1 quarter, regardless i like them better.
Ravens/Steelers Total turnovers (incl. overtime) O 3.5 - Seems like an easy task for both RGIII and Hodges. Rudolph/Connor are out.

gl everyone!

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[Hueristic]

Tbh I would never base my picks on something like a poll, so I think this poll in here is just a bit for fun. You could actually use this poll (or any other public poll) as kind of contraindication I don't think there is something like swarm intelligence when it comes to sportsbetting. The overwhelming majority of betting people is losing longterm, so why would a poll give any +EV insight.

I would be interested to know how the threads picks have done over the season, i will bet the poll has a winning record. I will look at it if I am uncertain but not as a starting point but rather as a confirmation of my thoughts and if it is opposed i will try to figure out why by the posts themselves.

I find this thread pretty knowledgeable, especially compared to other ones.

In general it's pretty hard (read: nearly impossible) nowadays to make any kind of money prematch in mainstream leagues.

True but getting in before the mainstream moves the line is the whole point and thats where DYOR comes in like this thread.

Markets have gotten so tight, every information is available with a few mouse clicks, news spread pretty fast, bookmakers have all statistics available, they have their own algorithms and AI. And the odds are centralized, with a few knowledgeable frontrunners and the rest just copying them.

Placing a bet 5 minutes before the game is usually the absolutely worst time unless there is a major situational change.

The people I know, that are making a living out of sportsbetting are either covering non-mainstream leagues/sports (with low-ish limits) or are doing live betting/trading.

I doubt anyone in this thread is making a living off of sports betting and if they were they have better resources and they probally would not be sharing them as it would dilute their edge.

...The best advice is probably to just stay away from them or watch how things unfold live and place a bet accordingly.

Yup

My picks for today, all singles:

Titans (-6.5) - Texans will not play Watson (i'm not sure who their back up is but it doesn't really matter) Hopkins and Fuller are out too.
Packers Halftime/Fulltime - Packers need this to ensure first-round bye and if 49ers lose, to clinch NFC 1st seed and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs
Eagles (-3.5) - 3 game winning streak, i can't really see them lose here, hopefully they cover the spread
Bills ML - I'm not entirely sure if Bills are going to rest their key guys, rumors are Allen will play only play 1 quarter, regardless i like them better.
Ravens/Steelers Total turnovers (incl. overtime) O 3.5 - Seems like an easy task for both RGIII and Hodges. Rudolph/Connor are out.

gl everyone!

Nice job.

[ralle14]

Dropped my vote to the Ravens, I know they're resting key players but on important games like this I usually lose if I pick the favorites so that's why went with them instead of the Steelers.

Other bets I have are the Chiefs and Saints handicaps both teams looking to give their best today since the 2nd seed is still up for grabs on both sides.

[morvillz7z]

Nice job.

Not looking good already, hah why am i not surprised lol.

Lost my Green Bay bet, Lions up 17-3 at the half. Rodgers just 6/18, Lions trick plays and whatnot having fun out there.

Watching Bills struggle in a piss poor weather in Buffalo, they are down 0-3. Singletary is out (as well as their WRs and starting TE Knox), Allen played 1st Q and that's it. Barkley is absolute trash with an ugly pick just before the half. The only thing that keeps BUF in the game is Jet's FG kicker - Ficken who missed two. (Search his name in a german dictionary)  

Could the Saints score 70 (halfway there)? haha

edit; i've seen enough from Barkley, another interception with 5:17 left. He started the second half with a fumble lol gg. Congrats to tyKiwanuka for taking the Jets ML

[ralle14]

Not looking good already, hah why am i not surprised lol.

Lost my Green Bay bet, Lions up 17-3 at the half. Rodgers just 6/18, Lions trick plays and whatnot having fun out there.

Watching Bills struggle in a piss poor weather in Buffalo, they are down 0-3. Singletary is out (as well as their WRs and starting TE Knox), Allen played 1st Q and that's it. Barkley is absolute trash with an ugly pick just before the half. The only thing that keeps BUF in the game is Jet's FG kicker - Ficken who missed two. (Search his name in a german dictionary)  

They managed to tie it all up but Jets answered back with a TD. Currently there's a few minutes left in the 4th still possible to tie it once again but it's looking rough for them. After watching their game I feel like the same thing could happen later between the Ravens and Steelers.

You still have 3 bets left to pull things back and I think they're likely to hit. I might also take the Eagles later the odds looks tempting.


Edit : Wow, i'm impressed with the Dolphins' performance against the Patriots.

[tyKiwanuka]

Kind of fitting that Winston ends this season with an interception pick6. First play of OT and Falcons win it 28-22 Winston finishes with 30TD/30INT for the season That TD from that O-Line dude for the Bucs was the longest TD ever by a 300+lbs guy, if I read that right

Quite a shocker Fitzmagic pulled out there. I know @Hueristic will be heart-broken with that, but as a fan of the game, this will add some spice to the AFC playoffs. A possible Patriots@Chiefs matchup looks great on paper.

I have put some bucks on the Giants now. As I wrote earlier this week, I expect the Eagles to struggle at MetLife today and offensively Wentz really has only few weapons with Ertz being out too now. Even if the Eagles lose, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the playoffs anyway. With the circus division the NFC East has been this season, I can see the Redskins spoil the party for Dallas and Jerry as well. Lets see.

[Hueristic]

Not looking good already, hah why am i not surprised lol.

Lost my Green Bay bet, Lions up 17-3 at the half. Rodgers just 6/18, Lions trick plays and whatnot having fun out there.

Watching Bills struggle in a piss poor weather in Buffalo, they are down 0-3. Singletary is out (as well as their WRs and starting TE Knox), Allen played 1st Q and that's it. Barkley is absolute trash with an ugly pick just before the half. The only thing that keeps BUF in the game is Jet's FG kicker - Ficken who missed two. (Search his name in a german dictionary)  

Could the Saints score 70 (halfway there)? haha

edit; i've seen enough from Barkley, another interception with 5:17 left. He started the second half with a fumble lol gg. Congrats to tyKiwanuka for taking the Jets ML

Shit, who woulda guessed The Pack would not crush the Lions?
Trap game.

W00ps, I remembered RGIII sucked but forgot Barkley did as well but thats why you don't bet on a game with teams that are not playing for anything.

Edit : Wow, i'm impressed with the Dolphins' performance against the Patriots.

Kind of fitting that Winston ends this season with an interception pick6. First play of OT and Falcons win it 28-22 Winston finishes with 30TD/30INT for the season That TD from that O-Line dude for the Bucs was the longest TD ever by a 300+lbs guy, if I read that right

Quite a shocker Fitzmagic pulled out there. I know @Hueristic will be heart-broken with that, but as a fan of the game, this will add some spice to the AFC playoffs. A possible Patriots@Chiefs matchup looks great on paper.

I have put some bucks on the Giants now. As I wrote earlier this week, I expect the Eagles to struggle at MetLife today and offensively Wentz really has only few weapons with Ertz being out too now. Even if the Eagles lose, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the playoffs anyway. With the circus division the NFC East has been this season, I can see the Redskins spoil the party for Dallas and Jerry as well. Lets see.

Meh, Pats do that against the fins alot, I knew it was going to happen as soon as brady threw that pick 6 right off the bat. Looked scripted to tell you the truth. i'd like to see Fitz get another chance next year but the dolphins coaching was the issue in the past as you can see with Tannerhill right now (BTW he looked great) but Mariota was in so not sure whats going on there.


Thats funny about Winston but he did good at the end of the season so who knows if he saved his job or not?

[DireWolfM14]

I must admit, I didn't see that coming from Miami.  The Patriots still had a first round bye to work for, and usually they can handle their division's bottom-dwellers.    I've been hearing it tossed around that this is the first year since 2009 that Pats don't get a first round bye.  That's an incredible streak!  Just the fact that they've gotten to the playoffs 11 years in a row now, but to do so and be seeded in the top two for 9 straight years is super-human.  What an amazing run.

The Cowgirls are looking hot in what's turning out to be a meaningless game.  The Eagles will take the NFC East and the 4th seed.

It's looking like it's all settle except for the 49er @ Seattle.  Lots of Green Bay and New Orleans fans will be rooting for the Seagulls tonight.


GO 49ERS!

[morvillz7z]

You still have 3 bets left to pull things back and I think they're likely to hit. I might also take the Eagles later the odds looks tempting.

RGIII threw an interception with 25 seconds left on a 4th and short while up 18. What can i say...My GUY!!!

thats why you don't bet on a game with teams that are not playing for anything.

I will either get it tattooed somewhere or set a calendar reminder for December 2020, 50:50 chance atm.

Finished 3-2, while also guessing right the weekly poll so not too shabby in the end. I told ya Steelers can't score shit with that offense and QB, still props to Hodges for not throwing a pick.

Super stoked for Seahawks/49ers game!!!

[Hueristic]

FU Gulls, Go 49ers !!!

Ohh shit BEAST mODE is on, wtf...


https://youtu.be/xA4qJPhxhTU

[nutildah]

Steelers got trounced    glad I missed a poor performance from RGIII... That guy was my MVP for two short years. Fun to watch.

Didn't watch that game as it ran from 5:25 - ~8 AM here, but I am watching the 49ers/Seahawks game. Shaping up to be a good one. 49ers TD seemingly; under review.

[willy2streams]

thats why you don't bet on a game with teams that are not playing for anything.

I will either get it tattooed somewhere or set a calendar reminder for December 2020, 50:50 chance atm.

Send the contact info for your tattoo artist, I bet on the Vikings and the Texans to win.  

If my luck is going to change it's now or never.  I went all in on the 49ers -6.5.  

[bbc.reporter]

Matchups for the wildcard weekend.

AFC

No. 3 New England Patriots vs. No. 6 Tennessee Titans

No. 4 Houston Texans vs. No. 5 Buffalo Bills

NFC

No. 3 New Orleans Saints vs. No. 6 Minnesota Vikings

No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 5 Seattle Seahawks

What are your predictions?

[nutildah]

Matchups for the wildcard weekend.

AFC

No. 3 New England Patriots vs. No. 6 Tennessee Titans

No. 4 Houston Texans vs. No. 5 Buffalo Bills

NFC

No. 3 New Orleans Saints vs. No. 6 Minnesota Vikings

No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 5 Seattle Seahawks

What are your predictions?

Immediately I'd take the Patriots over Titans and Saints over Vikings... the other 2 games I gotta do some thinking on. Last year I called all 7 post season games correctly, don't want to ruin my post season streak by being too hasty.

I went all in on the 49ers -6.5.  

What a game! Glad I watched it. Action packed down to the last second. A great final play to end the regular season... Could have been a touchdown for either team, but instead it was a completed pass that came up just short of the goal line.

[Hueristic]

I can't believe Seattle fucked up again and didn't run Marshawn up the middle and instead took a delay of game penalty!

[victorhing]

Here are the opening lines for WildCard Weekend.

[victorhing]

Seahawks as a -1.5 fav on the road seems like the play of the weekend.  Eagles have a ton of injuries and the Seahawks should be motivated after letting last nights game slip away.

[tyKiwanuka]

Seahawks as a -1.5 fav on the road seems like the play of the weekend.  Eagles have a ton of injuries and the Seahawks should be motivated after letting last nights game slip away.

Seattle is the only line that caught my attention too at a first quick glance at the odds. Not a whole lot of value there, but it's been some weeks since they beat a good team (@Bills). Their injury woes are just really bad right now, but still this will be no walk in the park for Seattle. And being so depleted can also do wonders to a team. The win at the Giants was already a bit wobbly, despite looking easy on paper. The fumble TD came just at the right time for them and Giants just folded afterwards. While I think Seattle will prevail, Eagles will give a good fight, so not sure if I will jump on them prematch.

Saints should take care of business against the Vikings. Patriots are priced quite high, maybe a bit too high. Patriots struggle, yes, but I just can't see the Titans leaving Foxborough victorious. They are no world-beaters. The most balanced game is Bills@Texans for me. If this would be played in Buffalo, you could probably just switch the odds. Home advantage very important in this one, so I see the Texans edging out the win.

This would make for the following Divisonal Round matchups and my bolded predictions:

Patriots at Chiefs
Texans at Ravens

Saints at Packers
Seahawks at 49ers

Don't know why, but I just don't see the Packers doing anything in the playoffs. I didn't follow them a lot this season, but they strike me as very average this season, tough their record says else. If we indeed get a Saints@Packers game, I would be ultra curious how Vegas is pricing that one. Seahawks will be priced very high at 49ers as well and this should give a good opportunity. Back to back never comes easy.

[DireWolfM14]

I can't believe Seattle fucked up again and didn't run Marshawn up the middle and instead took a delay of game penalty!

That's what cost them the game.  If they hadn't gotten that penalty Beast Mode would have just lunged over the linemen like he did earlier in the game.

Being a Niner's fan is so stressful.  I don't know if I can handle it if we have to win all of our playoff games this way.  The 9ers and the Seahawks have been going at this for a couple of decades now, each team has designed it's self with specific aspect to stop the other.  The Rams and Cardinals are only occasional thorns in our sides.

Some interesting stats that I heard from the game announcers yesterday; The 9ers hadn't won a game in Seattle since 2011, I had no idea it had been so long.  Last night's home-loss to the 9ers was the first of Russell Wilson's career.    

I'm surprised at the odds against the Bills, I think that's likely to be a close game, and could go either way.  Too close for me to pick a winner.  

The Patriots over the Titans.  The Patriots have to be the favorite going into the playoffs, despite how they played their last game.  I think it's written in the NFL rule-book.  We've seen it before, they look mediocre at the end of regular season, then go on to dominate in the playoffs.

The Saints over the Vikings.  The Saints look amazing lately, maybe even better than the Ravens.

I'm tentatively picking the Seahawks even though they're playing away.  I just can't see the Eagles D stopping Wilson, or the Eagles offense being that productive against the Seahawk's D.

[Hueristic]

Bills       ML         U?
Titans    Spread   O
Saints    ML         U?
SeaGulls Cover    U