🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[South Park]

Just a reminder, the College Football Semifinals are today, the first semifinal will be played by Notre Dame vs Alabama at 4PM ET and the second will be played by Ohio State vs Clemson at 8PM ET, the second game is without a doubt the one that is getting the most hype as this will be the second time Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields will face each other, the first time was also on the College Football Semifinals of last year in which Clemson beat Ohio State 29-23, so if for some reason you did not had the chance to see either of those two QBs this is probably the last chance we will have to see one of them before they become pros next year.

[1714829729]

1714829729

[1714829729]

1714829729

[1714829729]

1714829729

[suchmoon]

~

Good luck. You should have put 1 BTC on it and made it a YOLO

[DireWolfM14]

~

Good luck. You should have put 1 BTC on it and made it a YOLO

You only lose once? 

If the ticket wins, I'll regret not taking your advice.   

[suchmoon]

If the ticket wins, I'll regret not taking your advice.   

Exactly my point. "It's better to regret things you've done than ones you haven't" (putting it in quotes because I've seen it attributed to some allegedly famous person or another and I don't want to get banned for plagiarism, but it's a fairly common saying where I'm from).

[DireWolfM14]

If the ticket wins, I'll regret not taking your advice.   

Exactly my point. "It's better to regret things you've done than ones you haven't"

I don't hate that advice, and I've been know to go "all-in" with two wheels under my frame.  But something about risking hard-earned money makes me timid as a church mouse.

[Hueristic]

If the ticket wins, I'll regret not taking your advice.   

Exactly my point. "It's better to regret things you've done than ones you haven't" (putting it in quotes because I've seen it attributed to some allegedly famous person or another and I don't want to get banned for plagiarism, but it's a fairly common saying where I'm from).

I can think of a few non reversible actions that this would not be true for.

[suchmoon]

I can think of a few non reversible actions that this would not be true for.

Meh, technicalities

Just a reminder, the College Football Semifinals are today, the first semifinal will be played by Notre Dame vs Alabama at 4PM ET and the second will be played by Ohio State vs Clemson at 8PM ET, the second game is without a doubt the one that is getting the most hype as this will be the second time Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields will face each other, the first time was also on the College Football Semifinals of last year in which Clemson beat Ohio State 29-23, so if for some reason you did not had the chance to see either of those two QBs this is probably the last chance we will have to see one of them before they become pros next year.

Buckeyes are crushing it. Lawrence should go full Tiger King mullet instead of this half-assed washed up 80s rockstar look. That's my honest assessment totally unrelated to my bets

[nutildah]

Big day on Sunday with an extra serving of games. What teams do you guys like to cover?

I find these to be interesting:

Miami/Buffalo - Miami really needs this game but I just don't see them winning or even beating a +3 point spread. I'm waking up early to watch this one though...

Dallas/NY Giants - This has the makings of a good game but with a +2 Giants spread its too close to call. Giants tend to cover a lot more than Dallas, but it could be a blowout for Dallas and a massive V.

Pittsburgh/Cleveland - The line started at -6.5 Cleveland and has since moved as high as -10.5 on some books. Big Ben is out for this game, which probably explains it. Pretty sure Cleveland will win but -10 is too high for my tastes.

Arizona/LA Rams - Normally I'd be excited to take the Rams here but with Goff and Kupp out I'm a bit wary of what may happen. Goff is not my favorite quarterback, but he's a constant. Who knows how this Wolford guy is going to play, especially under this kind of late season pressure.

Tennessee/Houston - Titans need this game to stay alive in the playoff runnings; Texans are out. Titans team is relatively healthy whereas the Texans have a lot of injuries, including DeShaun Watson, who is starting but is listed as having a hand injury. Houston has lost their last 4 games in a row -- its all over for them. But the question is will the Titans cover the -7.5 spread and I'm thinking yes, they will. I will probably bet -7 just to play it safe... Maybe I'll place a bet on both.

[tyKiwanuka]

Miami/Buffalo - Miami really needs this game but I just don't see them winning or even beating a +3 point spread. I'm waking up early to watch this one though...

If this wasn't a divisional matchup, where the Bills can spoil the party for the Dolphins, I would even go for Miami ML. Given the Steelers will tank against the Browns, then it would be better for the Bills to lose as well - playing the Browns is easier than the Colts imo. And the Steelers would get punished for obviously tanking by getting to play the Ravens instead of the Browns.

Maybe something for inplay, if the Steelers are down by 2+ TD's

Dallas/NY Giants - This has the makings of a good game but with a +2 Giants spread its too close to call. Giants tend to cover a lot more than Dallas, but it could be a blowout for Dallas and a massive V.

Giants started ~1.65 two weeks ago and after Dallas' good performances, they suddenly were ~1.65 favs. Now the odds are slowly going up again, maybe also because of the Covid issues. Giants can only win this with one hell of a game defensively. They will probably struggle to score 20+ points again - even against the subpar Cowboys defense - and Dallas has averaged 36pts in their last 3. I would follow the Covid news in Dallas, see who is on the plane and then go for Dallas.

Pittsburgh/Cleveland - The line started at -6.5 Cleveland and has since moved as high as -10.5 on some books. Big Ben is out for this game, which probably explains it. Pretty sure Cleveland will win but -10 is too high for my tastes.

This is a game, that I would just leave alone, too hard to figure out. If you want to bet on this one badly, then I would choose Steelers ML. It's a bit strange to me, that PIT seems to show no interest in winning this one, because they can prevent CLE getting into the PO's by winning (assuming the Colts beat the Jags). This sounds like a nice prize......

(...) so if for some reason you did not had the chance to see either of those two QBs this is probably the last chance we will have to see one of them before they become pros next year.

The Jaguars must have hated watching this game and Fields stealing the show Too much to think about now.....and imagine Fields having another game like this against Alabama.

[wheelz1200]

Big day on Sunday with an extra serving of games. What teams do you guys like to cover?

I find these to be interesting:

Miami/Buffalo - Miami really needs this game but I just don't see them winning or even beating a +3 point spread. I'm waking up early to watch this one though...

Dallas/NY Giants - This has the makings of a good game but with a +2 Giants spread its too close to call. Giants tend to cover a lot more than Dallas, but it could be a blowout for Dallas and a massive V.

Pittsburgh/Cleveland - The line started at -6.5 Cleveland and has since moved as high as -10.5 on some books. Big Ben is out for this game, which probably explains it. Pretty sure Cleveland will win but -10 is too high for my tastes.

Arizona/LA Rams - Normally I'd be excited to take the Rams here but with Goff and Kupp out I'm a bit wary of what may happen. Goff is not my favorite quarterback, but he's a constant. Who knows how this Wolford guy is going to play, especially under this kind of late season pressure.

Tennessee/Houston - Titans need this game to stay alive in the playoff runnings; Texans are out. Titans team is relatively healthy whereas the Texans have a lot of injuries, including DeShaun Watson, who is starting but is listed as having a hand injury. Houston has lost their last 4 games in a row -- its all over for them. But the question is will the Titans cover the -7.5 spread and I'm thinking yes, they will. I will probably bet -7 just to play it safe... Maybe I'll place a bet on both.

I think the giants win this one outright.  Agreed it will take a great game defensively but its definately doable.  Dallas isn't scaring anyone at this point.  It will probably come down to turnovers and who forces more that will probably win a tightly battled game.

[suchmoon]

Here's what I've done, don't try this at home, this stunt can be performed only by a professional loser:

Jets +6.5
Cardinals ML
Giants +6.5
Raiders +6.5
Steelers +10.5
FT +6.5
Eagles/FT total under 42.5
Titans -3.5
Ravens -9.5
Bills -2.5
Chiefs ML
Saints -3.5
Seahawks -2.5
Vikings ML
Packers -3.5
Colts -9.5
Buccaneers -3.5

Keep in mind that unlike you all I placed these bets a week ago... so that I could spend my New Year's break drinking doing very interesting things without having to worry about yards and points and injuries. Some of these are likely duds now, like Chiefs and fucking Steelers, but some tilted my way (e.g. Cardinals ML odds was 2.2 when I placed the bet, it's now ~1.7). I need to win about 10 or 11 of the 17 bets to break even for the week.

[wheelz1200]

Here's what I've done, don't try this at home, this stunt can be performed only by a professional loser:

Jets +6.5
Cardinals ML
Giants +6.5
Raiders +6.5
Steelers +10.5
FT +6.5
Eagles/FT total under 42.5
Titans -3.5
Ravens -9.5
Bills -2.5
Chiefs ML
Saints -3.5
Seahawks -2.5
Vikings ML
Packers -3.5
Colts -9.5
Buccaneers -3.5

Keep in mind that unlike you all I placed these bets a week ago... so that I could spend my New Year's break drinking doing very interesting things without having to worry about yards and points and injuries. Some of these are likely duds now, like Chiefs and fucking Steelers, but some tilted my way (e.g. Cardinals ML odds was 2.2 when I placed the bet, it's now ~1.7). I need to win about 10 or 11 of the 17 bets to break even for the week.

Love the giants +6.5.  No way they blow out the giants, unless jones is still hesitant to run cause of his hamstring injury.  If jones is mobile and keeps the turnovers to maybe 1, I think the giants moneyline isn't a bad play here.  Good luck

[South Park]

(...) so if for some reason you did not had the chance to see either of those two QBs this is probably the last chance we will have to see one of them before they become pros next year.

The Jaguars must have hated watching this game and Fields stealing the show Too much to think about now.....and imagine Fields having another game like this against Alabama.

I still think Lawrence will be the pick of the Jaguars, however Fields is without a doubt raising his value with this performance, some mock drafts had the Jets taking Fields while some others had the Jets taking some other player, if the Jets are not taking Fields then they can try to trade out of it as there are some teams that could be interested in picking that high to secure Fields now.

Without a doubt the game was not as close as I was expecting it to be and the key play was the vicious hit Fields took on the ribs, the LB was disqualified for targeting and that was the leader of the Clemson defence so from that point on it was an even easier game for the Ohio State offence, Fields showed great poise and I was pleasantly surprised by his accuracy, he made some throws in tight coverage that were impressive, the only thing I did not liked was the fact that he takes too many risks when running the ball and he even goes out of his way to block on running plays, I am sure this is by design but he needs to tune down those tendencies on the NFL.

Buckeyes are crushing it. Lawrence should go full Tiger King mullet instead of this half-assed washed up 80s rockstar look. That's my honest assessment totally unrelated to my bets

LOL.

[DireWolfM14]

~
I need to win about 10 or 11 of the 17 bets to break even for the week.

Lol, I thought you were going to say that was your multi, and you had put 1BTC on it.  

I like most of your picks, but yeah, the Chiefs...  And you never know about the Steelers, their defense could show up and keep it the scores to single digits.

[morvillz7z]

"Pittsburgh Steelers' Mason Rudolph hasn't heard from Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett, open to chat."
source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30633830/pittsburgh-steelers-mason-rudolph-heard-cleveland-browns-myles-garrett-open-chat

Haha, not the Disney movie endings  , 'open to chat', what is that? Seriously bro, get sacked!

https://twitter.com/B1ackSchefter/status/1202324517940535301

It's a shame i won't have enough time to go thoroughly over the matches tomorrow, as there will be plenty of good spots and money to be made.

Lions sucked so bad last week, and they will probably be without Stafford/Golladay again, D.Cook out for MIN, so J.Jefferson is primed for a 100/1+ td game.
Colts are very likely to cover that 2-score spread against the Jags.
Cardinals -3 is an absolute steal considering who will be Rams QB on Sunday, add to this a few key players who are missing, a no brainer.
NO Saints player prop lines should be worth checking, with all their RBs out, T. Hill to score anytime looks tasty.
Huh, Steelers are resting a lot of players tomorrow, not just Big Ben, line @ +10 is almost unplayable, 1.20 Browns ml parlayed with something similar and a bigger stake seems the way to go.
I want to see WFT advance to the playoffs, no Fletcher Cox, Sanders, Goedert, and Jackson for PHI, i just hope Alex Smith can finish the game.

[suchmoon]

~
I need to win about 10 or 11 of the 17 bets to break even for the week.

Lol, I thought you were going to say that was your multi, and you had put 1BTC on it.  

Touché. But I've already done multis that I regret, so I got that covered

[bbc.reporter]

Big day on Sunday with an extra serving of games. What teams do you guys like to cover?

I find these to be interesting:

Miami/Buffalo - Miami really needs this game but I just don't see them winning or even beating a +3 point spread. I'm waking up early to watch this one though...

Agreed. Matt Barkley also tweeted see you in the playoffs which implies that there might be much more fans than presently allowed to watch the game. This should help the Bills performance in their home stadium and get the bye if they clinch 2nd seed.

In any case, are the Dolphins a good team to be given only +2.5? Should it be not +7?

[suchmoon]

In any case, are the Dolphins a good team to be given only +2.5? Should it be not +7?

They had a few good games recently but the opponents weren't very strong... Jets... Bengals... Patriots... barely won against Raiders just because they (Raiders) screwed up.

I think +2.5 is a bit too generous for Dolphins. Tua is unreliable. Their defense is good though. I guess it's mostly about the uncertainty of how committed Bills will be and not about the relative strength of the teams. Same as with many if not most week 17 matches, particularly where one of the teams doesn't have much to play for.

[nutildah]

In any case, are the Dolphins a good team to be given only +2.5? Should it be not +7?

I want Miami to win but I agree with you here. It's actually down to +2 and +1.5 in a few books. AFAIK Bills are starting Josh Allen. They might ease up a little now they clinched their playoff spot, whereas Dolphins will be coming full throttle. I still don't think it will be enough and project Tua will choke under the pressure (though I hope I'm wrong).

My only bet I placed for tomorrow was Titans -7... seems like it should be easy enough for them.

[DireWolfM14]

Touché. But I've already done multis that I regret, so I got that covered

I can recall a few poker hands that I decided were worth an expensive bluff, but weren't.  And I'm sure there are plenty more that I don't care to recall, lol.  Does that count?

In any case, are the Dolphins a good team to be given only +2.5? Should it be not +7?

I want Miami to win but I agree with you here. It's actually down to +2 and +1.5 in a few books. AFAIK Bills are starting Josh Allen. They might ease up a little now they clinched their playoff spot, whereas Dolphins will be coming full throttle. I still don't think it will be enough and project Tua will choke under the pressure (though I hope I'm wrong).My only bet I placed for tomorrow was Titans -7... seems like it should be easy enough for them.

The Bills look like a sure thing on paper, but there are too many variables at play with this one.  Miami has a lot to gain, and the Bills have little to lose.  Worst case scenario they would have to play an away game in Pittsburgh on their way to Kansas City.

My only bet I placed for tomorrow was Titans -7... seems like it should be easy enough for them.

I like that, I may shadow you on that one.  I also like the Cardinals at -2.5 for the same odds, or Green Bay at -3.5 for slightly more.  I haven't decided yet, I'll probably work something out in the morning as I'm not in the mood tonight...

My daughter brought over some eggnog left over from Christmas, and you know, it has milk in it, so it's gonna go bad if it doesn't get consumed soon.  Like tonight...  I do what I can to help out.