🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[tyKiwanuka]

Who would have tought some weeks ago that the Jets are only slight underdog at the Patriots....and I think their odds still have value, lol. NE just wants this season to finish I guess, while the Jets might want to keep playing given their recent success. They beat two teams who were fighting for their PO spot and I can't see any reason, why they shouldn't be able to also beat the Pats in this divisional matchup, who have averaged an abysmal 8pts in their last three. I would like to see Cam start for this bet, but Stidham will be fine too. I think the odds for the Jets just aren't <2, because it would be too weird to see the Jets being favourite. But for me they are, Jets ML @2.40.

And I generally like the Broncos ML, not sure what makes the Raiders favs here. They both have their fair share of injuries and I read everywhere how banged up the DEN defense is, but they were doing ok-ish imo against the Chargers. I would more worry about the LV defense which allows their opponents to score heavily on them. But I won't have a pre-match bet here, since the Raiders are doing very good on the road this season (5-2, @home only 2-6).

(...)this 2+ for WAS looks amazing.

Down to ~1.50 already

[morvillz7z]

Crazy day ahead of us, a lot on the line for a bunch of teams.

Matthew Stafford is playing after all, this could very well be his last game for Detroit, he should make it count, even though this is a meaningless game with both teams out of the playoffs. I need 30+ rec yards from Hockenson, hopefully we don't get to see Chase Daniel in action again, and 70+ rec yards from MIN rookie J.Jefferson.

If Baker goes down, i go down with him, Browns ml + B.Mayfield 7+ rush yards + B.Mayfield 1+ pass TD, Baker had a tough time last week with basically all his WRs out, anything but the Browns winning by 10+ pts will be a surprise to me.

I will try to watch both Steelers/Browns and Dolphins/Bills matches to start the day.

[suchmoon]

Touché. But I've already done multis that I regret, so I got that covered

I can recall a few poker hands that I decided were worth an expensive bluff, but weren't.  And I'm sure there are plenty more that I don't care to recall, lol.  Does that count?

All that matters is if it felt good doing it

Ok, now you've shamed me into a parlay of all 16 games. I didn't want to go through the hassle of depositing new funds for a measly 5000x payout LOL so I just scraped up some change... still would be good enough for an early retirement. I'm guessing the bet will be dead by around 1:30 PM EST

[DireWolfM14]

Touché. But I've already done multis that I regret, so I got that covered

I can recall a few poker hands that I decided were worth an expensive bluff, but weren't.  And I'm sure there are plenty more that I don't care to recall, lol.  Does that count?

All that matters is if it felt good doing it

Ok, now you've shamed me into a parlay of all 16 games. I didn't want to go through the hassle of depositing new funds for a measly 5000x payout LOL so I just scraped up some change... still would be good enough for an early retirement. I'm guessing the bet will be dead by around 1:30 PM EST

Hmm, early retirement sounds nice. 

Okay fine, 16 games, you talked me into it.  Of course the sports book limited my wager to a very small sum, so early retirement isn't gonna happen but a new truck might. 

[ralle14]

The only bet I have for now is the Ravens handicap -12.5 I was able to get them at 1.97 few days ago now it moved to 13.5.

They're also my final pick on the survivor pool i've never reached this far in any pool i'm so nervous at the same time excited.  One user on the subreddit shared this interesting info on the Bengals being 12-0 at the final week.

[suchmoon]

Okay fine, 16 games, you talked me into it.  Of course the sports book limited my wager to a very small sum, so early retirement isn't gonna happen but a new truck might. 

Not with 49ers, no.

[DireWolfM14]

Not with 49ers, no.

How else would I get 33,878 to one odds? 

[suchmoon]

Not with 49ers, no.

How else would I get 33,878 to one odds? 

Makes sense.

Well, it's 1:30 and it looks like Lions and Patriots decided to play today so I'm probably not retiring yet

Good luck with 49ers.

[jaberwock]

Who would have tought some weeks ago that the Jets are only slight underdog at the Patriots....and I think their odds still have value, lol. NE just wants this season to finish I guess, while the Jets might want to keep playing given their recent success. They beat two teams who were fighting for their PO spot and I can't see any reason, why they shouldn't be able to also beat the Pats in this divisional matchup, who have averaged an abysmal 8pts in their last three. I would like to see Cam start for this bet, but Stidham will be fine too. I think the odds for the Jets just aren't <2, because it would be too weird to see the Jets being favourite. But for me they are, Jets ML @2.40.

And I generally like the Broncos ML, not sure what makes the Raiders favs here. They both have their fair share of injuries and I read everywhere how banged up the DEN defense is, but they were doing ok-ish imo against the Chargers. I would more worry about the LV defense which allows their opponents to score heavily on them. But I won't have a pre-match bet here, since the Raiders are doing very good on the road this season (5-2, @home only 2-6).

Honestly that is more about Patriots not being good this season instead of jets being anything at all Jets are still as bad as it comes, they are not really just "slight underdog" to any team, they are underdogs to the whole league at this point.

However Patriots are nowhere near the level they used to be Tom Brady was one of the (if not the best) best quarterbacks in history of NFL, which is why they were that good for that many years, and they have certainly put really good players around him as well but without the best QB ever, you are obviously going to suck for a while, even at his older age he was still decent, he is still playing very well currently, on his 20th year if I am not wrong, maybe 21th. So long story short when you are betting for patriots and jets game, you do not know which one to bet on, because they both suck big time .

[tyKiwanuka]

Jets are still as bad as it comes, they are not really just "slight underdog" to any team, they are underdogs to the whole league at this point.

Hehe, I think they are not underdogs against the Jags right now. And Bengals maybe. But this doesn't matter in the end, since this is all about the odds vs probability. I would bet on the most-sucking team ever, if the odds are right. Would I bet on the Jets @1.7 ? No. Would I bet on the Pats @2.4 ? Yes.

And speaking about the Jags, I will bet on them ML against the Colts, if Dolphins/Ravens/Browns win in the early games. 1.1 for IND is just too low considering the fact they might be out of PO contention come halftime. This could be the worst bet ever, but I like the odds and Jags have the #1 pick locked in already.

[morvillz7z]

Dolphins PO dreams are getting squashed by the Bills, they have ground to make in the second half (6-28) and there is no Fitzmagic this time to come and help. Isaiah McKenzie with 3TDs so far, one of which was a crazy 80+ yard punt return.

If Browns hold off and win against PIT, Colts win and Dolphins lose, Steelers will host CLE next week, that would be a nice rematch within a week.

[DireWolfM14]

Dolphins PO dreams are getting squashed by the Bills,

So are my dreams of a new truck.  That and the Browns didn't cover.  But the 9ers are totally going to win.

This was my real bet for the morning.  I decided that Lamar and company have yet to disappoint me this season, so I went with the following parlay.



I didn't quite bet the farm on it, but I'm back into double digit mBTC winnings for the season.

[suchmoon]

Damn Jets stole my retirement money. Well, at least I'm 6 of 7 on my singles so it could be worse.

[wheelz1200]

Giants moneyline whoo hoo.  At home against the worst rushing defense in the league.  This was a (semi) easy bet to make (from a giants homer).  Cant believe tonight i now have to root for the Eagles 🤢.  I guess go eagles go.  Last time you will ever hear me say those words lol.

[South Park]

What a way to waste the opportunity to win the game for DAL, they did not tried a 2 point conversion and put the score 16-20, if they have made the conversion at that moment then on their last drive they would only have needed a FG to tie the game, McCarthy failed to challenge a 10 yard reception that gave the NYG a chance for a FG, which they made, and gave them a lead of 4 points which turned out to be decisive, and on their final drive Dalton got captured on First & Goal, CeeDee Lamb dropped an easy pass and then Dalton gets intercepted, and then when the game seemed like it was going to be easily won by the NYG they added drama to the game with a no forced fumble, it was a comedy of errors but it was still a fun game

Damn Jets stole my retirement money. Well, at least I'm 6 of 7 on my singles so it could be worse.

The Jets cannot even tank properly so it makes sense they cannot be trusted even with a single satoshi.

[wheelz1200]

What a way to waste the opportunity to win the game for DAL, they did not tried a 2 point conversion and put the score 16-20, if they have made the conversion at that moment then on their last drive they would only have needed a FG to tie the game, McCarthy failed to challenge a 10 yard reception that gave the NYG a chance for a FG, which they made, and gave them a lead of 4 points which turned out to be decisive, and on their final drive Dalton got captured on First & Goal, CeeDee Lamb dropped an easy pass and then Dalton gets intercepted, and then when the game seemed like it was going to be easily won by the NYG they added drama to the game with a no forced fumble, it was a comedy of errors but it was still a fun game

Damn Jets stole my retirement money. Well, at least I'm 6 of 7 on my singles so it could be worse.

The Jets cannot even tank properly so it makes sense they cannot be trusted even with a single satoshi.

Yeah Mccarthy blew that game for the cowboys.  Biggest mistake was that non challenge.  Dante Pettis looked like he used the ground to catch the ball but woulda coulda shoulda. Who knows what happens if they challenge that, it alters the game.  Either way giants money line.  Hope the eagles win and giants get to play the bucs.  I will be taking the Giants spread since it will probably be 9.5 or something like that in favor of the bucs

[suchmoon]

Titans tied with Texans with 10 seconds remaining... This is where a -3.5 bet sucks - even if Titans manage to kick a field goal I still lose.

Edit: well, at least it was a trick kick LOL.

[nutildah]

Dammit. Can't believe the Titans gave up some many points. Oh well, at least they're going to the playoffs, blah blah blah... yadda yadda yadda.

Bizarre watching the Eagles be the better team against Washington, at least this quarter.

[DireWolfM14]

Bizarre watching the Eagles be the better team against Washington, at least this quarter.

It's not looking good for Washington, the Eagles just picked off Alex Smith at the 15, and now they're driving towards the goal line.  I put a bet on safe parlay; I only Antonio Gibson to score, over 43.5, and Washington to win.

Here we go 4th and goal for the Eagles, and incomplete pass.  No points on that turnover, they had a perfect chance to tie up the game. 

[suchmoon]

Here we go 4th and goal for the Eagles, and incomplete pass.  No points on that turnover, they had a perfect chance to tie up the game.  

Eagles hate Giants.

Edit: interception and a drop... you can't make this shit up.