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Author Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!  (Read 16359 times)
JayJuanGee
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April 26, 2021, 01:57:22 PM
Last edit: April 26, 2021, 08:09:44 PM by mprep
 #301

In less than one month, total Bitcoin held is falling around 1000 BTC. It sounds as a big amount but for Grayscale the amount is only 0.15% of total Bitcoin they are holding.

Not a big deal. GrayScale in many months bought the amount of Bitcoin that is bigger than total Bitcoin was mined by miners each month.

Not a big deal. They will come back to buy all monthly mined Bitcoin.

HODL??

What happened to what is good for thee, is good for me?

Aren't we all told to HODL? Isn't the 1st commandment from 'lord NSA-Satoshi'?? It's on the tablet "Thou shall HODL"


Yet, here we have the first real BTC-ETF and you tell us they're selling? Selling BTC?? Unheard of

Sounds like BTC-ETF graybeard were the lucky pirates to sell out at the the ATH

How can they call themselves "BTC-ETF', if they don't 110% HODL forever?

For sure some people get stuck in ideas of ONLY do x, y or z with your bitcoin, and bitcoin gives no shits.

In other words, do whatever the fuck you want, including selling your BTC at various times... you should be trying to decide for yourself and not following supposed commandments of anyone, including Satoshi, to the extent that would even be an accurate representation of Satoshi - which seems to be the pure opposite of what Satoshi suggested at least in terms of NOT imposing values on people.  Remember, he said something like "you might want to get some in case it catches on" which is far from a mandate, even if it might be reasonably be read as a decently strong hint about potential future value of bitcoin, and suggesting voluntary action in the then present.

Surely, calculations for what to do for institutions are going to be quite different from individuals, and of course, individuals are going to have more freedoms and flexibilities in terms of how to manage their bitcoins and what tactics to use that they perceive to be in their own personal interests based on their calculations of their various personal circumstance.

Some institutions will have more flexibility including those who are holding and managing their own funds, but when they manage the funds of other people (including having partners that are subject to their decisions), then a variety of other obligations might kick in, including fiduciary duties, but they may also end up falling within regulatory restrictions based on the kind of operation they run and also the funds of a public versus private company also has additional reporting obligations - at least in terms of their need to report what they are doing - which seems to be one of the decent vehicles of getting information that might not otherwise be publicly disclosed.

Oh also there are governments too, that might have reporting requirements, too, but not too many folks are going to proclaim that all governments are equal in such regard and there are branches of departments and surely a variety of complications in governments that may or may not end up requiring reporting (to the extent that they are complying with their own mandates - if any).

So, I suppose my main point, is that attempting to over simplify either what is being done or what should be done is going to lead to dogmatic (and likely dumbass) conclusions in trying to assess what is happening, what happened or what might happen in the future.




Not a big deal. GrayScale in many months bought the amount of Bitcoin that is bigger than total Bitcoin was mined by miners each month.

Isn't this  the big argument on whales, that they can make these huge moves, so say you had a whale, with a months worth of all mined BTC on earth, and just easy-peasy dumped at on the market as it wished, wouldn't it create enormous volatility, what if the same whale bought futures? and/or calls & puts? What if your were an insider and knew ahead? What if you were a front-runner and knew the king-whales next move? Remember soon we will have USA BITCOIN ETF's and then things will get super engineered, to take USD from 'weak-hands'


A bit difficult to follow your logic on these points, btc-room101.  Again you seem to be assuming that Grayscale is free to do whatever it wants regarding funds, including dumping them without running incredible regulatory (and even reputational) risk.

We can imagine all that we like, but if you are presenting pie in the sky ideas in regards to what options might be in front of some of these institutions, including that they are both very free to do what they like and they have a kind of intrinsic corruption that is based on short term desires for lots of money, then you are likely barking up the wrong tree.

Furthermore, some of the institutions, including Grayscale is making all kinds of money, so they hardly have anything  kind of desperate motivations built into the system that they have already set up. 

I will surely concede that in recent times, they are having some challenges in regards to how the market is reacting to the value of their fund to push it from considerable positive territory to negative territory, so I will concede that those levels of losses in value - even relatively speaking - are likely causing them to engage in a variety of new (and potentially creative) tactics to try to retain and preserve their valuations, but still I am not going to go so far as to start speculating that they are completely untethered in what tools they are wanting to use to attempt to address their specific recently evolving circumstances (even if they might not have already anticipated the possibility of the kind of scenario that is currently playing out).

Seems like bitcoin scammers have taken common robbery to even higher levels.

Huh?  Who are the scammers in this case?

Not a big deal? Say what? To sell Bitcoin, is to Hate Bitcoin; To hate bitcoin is to hate God
This is 'HATE' so say the pump&pump bots here 24/7

Huh?

Since about 2010, there has been developing a trading market in bitcoin, and sure it has become more complex and widespread, including some financial instruments that allow for leveraging and even potential might give some tools to corrupt individuals/institutions that may not have been available during the more immature years of bitcoin, referring to 2010-2013-ish.... but still, we are far a state where there is any rationality to suggesting that either selling is bad or even that financial tools or strategies that allow for the betting on DOWNity BTC prices or the selling of BTC is somehow a corrupt or evil practice, even if it is a real world practice in which anyone investing into bitcoin should be trying to account for these kinds of BTC price dynamics, even if they might not completely understand the totality of what is currently happening or what might happen in the future.

All know that these ETF's have a time-loss value, so say HODL this crap and you can only lose money, but the entire point of these 'vehicles' is so you can 'trade' without using a exchange, and they automatically collect taxes for the GOV.

Ya'll lose money, but at least it doesn't get stolen as like on an exchange. Here at least you can file a complaint with the SEC, unlike the exchange, you can't call anybody, well except that exchange that doesn't answer the phone.

You (btc-room101) are probably not completely inaccurate in your above description of varying dynamics and varying options that might exists for some financial instruments as compared with other financial instruments, but you do seem to be getting a wee bit worked up about these kinds of differing financial instrument matters and throwing out a lot of opinionated prescriptive language about what is better or what is worse rather than attempting to present matters in a more descriptive and factual way. 

Sure, we are in a kind of evolving space whether we are referring to varying financial instruments that are coming available or changing, various governmental reactions (including regulatory attempts) and those evolving circumstances are going to affect how individuals or institutions use the instruments including the affects that the available instruments might have on the BTC market (and price) as a whole.

As individuals, we should attempt to consider these matters, but of course, many people are not going to necessarily understand varying dynamics in terms of their own getting a stake in bitcoin or how they might allocate their bitcoin holdings (assuming that they get in at all).

The irony is if this fund actually believed in BTC, they would HODL,

Sure, you are specifically referring to Grayscale in this comment, right?  Haven't they already shown that they do not necessarily fall in the same category of bitcoin maximalists as evidenced by their getting involved in creating funds of a variety of shitcoins and also I think that some of their folks (such as Barry Silbert) were involved in supporting the new york agreement and maybe some other later efforts that would have likely undermined how easy it would be to change bitcoin's features due to attacks on how consensus was then attempted to be achieved in bitcoin.  Anyhow, I guess my point is that we cannot necessarily presume that various players are all aligned with various bitcoin maximalist ideas, and bitcoin seems to have been designed in such a way that allows for a variety of approaches, including resilience to various kinds of attacks - including that price is not everything, and if Grayscale were to go rogue, as you are seeming to imply, then sure there would likely be a pretty big hit on BTC's price, but it remains pretty damned doubtful, that at this stage that bitcoin would die because of such attack, were it to occur..,. and surely even the speculating of such attack from Grayscale seems quite illogical as fuck, especially the way that you are presenting it.. because again, why would anyone (whether institutions or a group of individuals) be incentivized to kill their golden goose - even presuming that they were able to(which is a very presumptive "if").


the fact that they sell out to 'clear' their fee's shows they prefer FIAT over Bullshit Cryptos.

I would think that it is difficult to blame companies for trying to make as much money as they can from goods or services that they provide, and of course, if they overprice, they could end up with some backlash - which probably accounts for some of the current price dynamics of the GBTC fund going from the positive to the negative territory in the past several months or so when some similar (or kind of competing) products were introduced (referring to the going live of a couple of Canadian ETFs).


That they only play the Crypto game to recycle fools money. Churn on Garth, and remember the house keeps all.

You are talking in riddles.. Sure that helps to understand you better.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

By the way, our current world as a whole fuckton of varying assets and currencies, including fiat, so anyone who fails/refuses to account for such dynamic is likely going to screw up his own allocations and end up getting too invested in one asset/currency or another, and sure I can understand if you might be a diptwat who only has a few thousand dollars to your name, then you may well end up doing fine with over-allocations because you do not have very much, so it does not likely matter too much if you put all your small quantity of eggs in one basket.  The more sophisticated that you become, and even the more value that you have accumulated to your portfolio, you at least be considering the extent to which it might be helpful to you to have allocations in more than one asset/currency. 

I am not even suggesting that diversification for the mere sake of diversification is a good or even a wise mindset, practice or strategy because there are likely needs to considering why you might invest in one asset/currency versus another and how much allocation to give to such while considering your own various personal circumstances.  Anyhow, fiat (such as the dollar) can play a very central role in any person's/institution's considerations of their own cashflow and ability to pay a variety of ongoing expenses - and the more complicated the expenses (including institutions and richer folks) the more likely that there are needs to plan further in advance and to attempt to be more careful about how they attempt to utilize and hold such assets/currencies... even folks who might end up taking relatively high allocations in one kind of asset/currency or another - but again, seems dumb and short sighted to not be attempting to balance such approaches, especially if you are attempting to manage any kind of meaningful level of value, whether we are referring to individuals, institutions that are not managing the money of others and institutions that are managing the value of others.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 01, 2021, 03:11:30 AM
 #302

In less than one month, total Bitcoin held is falling around 1000 BTC. It sounds as a big amount but for Grayscale the amount is only 0.15% of total Bitcoin they are holding.

Not a big deal. GrayScale in many months bought the amount of Bitcoin that is bigger than total Bitcoin was mined by miners each month.

Not a big deal. They will come back to buy all monthly mined Bitcoin.

The total held reduced by BTC1000 because that's how much Grayscale took in fees. Every day they take ~BTC33 from the fund for their fees /day ~BTC33* 30days/month = ~BTC1000/month.

I think you got the logic reverse, demand came from the secondary market, that drove premium between secondary and primary, with premium at 20%+ accredited investors gladly moved in to provide liquidity. Then demand on secondary cooled, but the issue is that supply is lagging by 6month. Demand dropped but supply continues at full speed for 6 month, they closed the fund in February, so there's still 4m supply left in the pipeline, after that there's 2month of guaranteed 0 supply.

"Feeeeed me Roger!"  -Bcash
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May 01, 2021, 03:37:55 AM
 #303

In less than one month, total Bitcoin held is falling around 1000 BTC. It sounds as a big amount but for Grayscale the amount is only 0.15% of total Bitcoin they are holding.

Not a big deal. GrayScale in many months bought the amount of Bitcoin that is bigger than total Bitcoin was mined by miners each month.

Not a big deal. They will come back to buy all monthly mined Bitcoin.

HODL??

What happened to what is good for thee, is good for me?

Aren't we all told to HODL? Isn't the 1st commandment from 'lord NSA-Satoshi'?? It's on the tablet "Thou shall HODL"


Yet, here we have the first real BTC-ETF and you tell us they're selling? Selling BTC?? Unheard of

Sounds like BTC-ETF graybeard were the lucky pirates to sell out at the the ATH

How can they call themselves "BTC-ETF', if they don't 110% HODL forever?




Not a big deal. GrayScale in many months bought the amount of Bitcoin that is bigger than total Bitcoin was mined by miners each month.


Isn't this  the big argument on whales, that they can make these huge moves, so say you had a whale, with a months worth of all mined BTC on earth, and just easy-peasy dumped at on the market as it wished, wouldn't it create enormous volatility, what if the same whale bought futures? and/or calls & puts? What if your were an insider and knew ahead? What if you were a front-runner and knew the king-whales next move? Remember soon we will have USA BITCOIN ETF's and then things will get super engineered, to take USD from 'weak-hands'


Seems like bitcoin scammers have taken common robbery to even higher levels.

Not a big deal? Say what? To sell Bitcoin, is to Hate Bitcoin; To hate bitcoin is to hate God
This is 'HATE' so say the pump&pump bots here 24/7

All know that these ETF's have a time-loss value, so say HODL this crap and you can only lose money, but the entire point of these 'vehicles' is so you can 'trade' without using a exchange, and they automatically collect taxes for the GOV.

Ya'll lose money, but at least it doesn't get stolen as like on an exchange. Here at least you can file a complaint with the SEC, unlike the exchange, you can't call anybody, well except that exchange that doesn't answer the phone.

The irony is if this fund actually believed in BTC, they would HODL, the fact that they sell out to 'clear' their fee's shows they prefer FIAT over Bullshit Cryptos. That they only play the Crypto game to recycle fools money. Churn on Garth, and remember the house keeps all.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

The whole tirade seems to assume that someone is sold something. But like i said in my previous post the fund reduced because every day Grayscale take out their 2%yr fee 2%/yr*365 = 0.0055% daily. This happens and will continue to happen every sinle day, and CANNOT be otherwise. So until premium returns and they open the fund back up, the holdings will reduce by ~33/day or BTC1000/month. They're free to do whatever they want with those BTC just as you are, and in fact they could've holdled that BTC1k or paid it out to their employees as bonuses. Once you realize that it couldn't have been any other way and will continue to happen, the rest of the post seems silly.

As far as the robbery part, lots of new retail investors, entered the market and after watching few youtube videos decided that they are now elite traders. For some reason people with full time jobs in their fields decided that they can outsmart hedge funds with rooms full of quants with PhDs operating 24/7 HFT (high-frequency trading) and dedicated low latency lines to exchanges. The results shouldn't really surprise anyone, that's why the best advise you can tell average person is to HODL, when you HODL devs/miners and people running nodes guarantee that no one can rob you of your BTC (and no one ever has), if instead you want to try your luck as a trader, well then you're on your own

"Feeeeed me Roger!"  -Bcash
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May 02, 2021, 11:46:56 AM
Merited by hugeblack (2), fillippone (2)
 #304

During the week, Grayscale acquired a large number of altcoins XLM, MANA, LPT, FIL and LINK, and others. The largest amount of XLM purchased 259,003 for the last week according to the data https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale#Holdings at 05.02 Total AUM is $48.66 B



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May 02, 2021, 07:49:02 PM
Last edit: May 02, 2021, 08:06:42 PM by fillippone
 #305

During the week, Grayscale acquired a large number of altcoins XLM, MANA, LPT, FIL and LINK, and others. The largest amount of XLM purchased 259,003 for the last week according to the data https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale#Holdings at 05.02 Total AUM is $48.66 B




Thanks for the good find Daltonik.
Lol!
Do you like LTC so much you really want to buy at a whopping 948% premium over the fair market valuations?
Please don't tell me the premium on BTC trust turned negative because they switched to LTC fund! (spoiler alert: it did not).


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May 03, 2021, 02:19:45 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), vapourminer (1)
 #306

Digital Currency Group (DCG) has increased the planned volume of purchases of GBTC and announces its intention to purchase shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in the amount of up to $ 750 million, which is three times more than announced in March, as of April 30, 2021, DCG has already spent $193.5 million for this purpose  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210503005293/en/Digital-Currency-Group-Announces-Plan-to-Increase-Purchase-of-Shares-of-Grayscale-Bitcoin-Trust-OTCQX-GBTC#.YI_uDWwpo-s.twitter


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May 03, 2021, 09:59:27 PM
 #307

Digital Currency Group (DCG) has increased the planned volume of purchases of GBTC and announces its intention to purchase shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in the amount of up to $ 750 million, which is three times more than announced in March, as of April 30, 2021, DCG has already spent $193.5 million for this purpose  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210503005293/en/Digital-Currency-Group-Announces-Plan-to-Increase-Purchase-of-Shares-of-Grayscale-Bitcoin-Trust-OTCQX-GBTC#.YI_uDWwpo-s.twitter




Thank you for sharing this. I saw this news during the day, but I am quite busy IRL in those days, so you nicely updated the thread.

There are a few important parts of the information here:

  • Grayscale is desperate. They do not have premium where they need it (BTC fund has a negative premium) hand they have it where they do not need it (LTC has a ridiculously expensive premium of 880%)
  • They are launching a bigger Buyback while in reality, they haven't purchased the whole first chunk of shares.
  • They are signalling negative premium won't be tolerated, rather than actually buying. "After "do not fight the FED", "do not fight Grayscale" is coming? I don't think so.


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May 07, 2021, 01:53:32 PM
Last edit: May 07, 2021, 02:27:41 PM by Daltonik
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)
 #308

Grayscale Investments has become a sponsor of the New York Giants football club of the National Football League. As part of the cooperation, the company will sponsor home games and a training camp for the football team. Grayscale will also fund the Giants Foundation Golf picnic.For the team staff, Grayscale organizes educational seminars on cryptocurrencies. https://www.giants.com/news/grayscale-investments-first-cryptocurrency-partner-of-nfl-team


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May 07, 2021, 09:27:48 PM
 #309

Grayscale Investments has become a sponsor of the New York Giants football club of the National Football League. As part of the cooperation, the company will sponsor home games and a training camp for the football team. Grayscale will also fund the Giants Foundation Golf picnic.For the team staff, Grayscale organizes educational seminars on cryptocurrencies. https://www.giants.com/news/grayscale-investments-first-cryptocurrency-partner-of-nfl-team


Does the number 21 related to bitcoin Max cap?  Tongue
Isn't it supposed to be an investment fund for specialized purposes, which are cryptocurrencies? I began to doubt that they would use their reserves to start many partnerships.
How will all these payments be financed? From the 2% or the profits?

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May 13, 2021, 10:34:55 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 11:54:40 PM by fillippone
 #310

Bad day for Grayscale: their premium hit a new all-time low of -21%.

This is the second day in a row their market share price quote below 20% of the NAV.



The point is that no matter what they are trying to do, buyback included, the premium keeps falling.






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May 15, 2021, 08:09:53 AM
Merited by hugeblack (2)
 #311

Grayscale is still actively buying Stellar (XLM) for the last day, 79957 XLM was purchased for the month, the company has already bought 414568 XLM, there are no savings for other crypto assets, only sales


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May 15, 2021, 03:45:56 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #312

Grayscale is still actively buying Stellar (XLM) for the last day, 79957 XLM was purchased for the month, the company has already bought 414568 XLM, there are no savings for other crypto assets, only sales



Getting more and more involved in shitcoins is truly going to help Grayscale, right?

I am being a wee bit sarcastic here.. and not really expecting anyone to argue about the supposed "wisdom" or lack thereof of this ongoing increasing shitcoins approach from Grayscale.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 18, 2021, 08:37:02 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 11:52:03 PM by fillippone
 #313

So, it finally happened:




Grayscale AUM is now below 30 Billions AUM.
Please note that this is due only to the shrinking of the market price of Bitcoin, dragging down also the AUM, given by the BTC per share times the outstanding shares, times the BTC price.

Of course, every other factor being equal, the fund's AUM daily decreases for the daily accrual.

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May 18, 2021, 08:56:20 PM
Merited by fillippone (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #314

Grayscale is still actively buying Stellar (XLM) for the last day, 79957 XLM was purchased for the month, the company has already bought 414568 XLM, there are no savings for other crypto assets, only sales



Getting more and more involved in shitcoins is truly going to help Grayscale, right?

Decent amount of shitcoins there, but ETC at the 3rd spot really sticks out like a sore thumb (not that BCH at 5th is much better). Isn't that like a half dead project, with nothing really going on and on top of of that they had several successful 51% attack in the last few years?

Whats the catch, as I just can't wrap my head around it.

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May 18, 2021, 09:21:43 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), hugeblack (2), Rikafip (1), Charles-Tim (1)
 #315

Grayscale is still actively buying Stellar (XLM) for the last day, 79957 XLM was purchased for the month, the company has already bought 414568 XLM, there are no savings for other crypto assets, only sales



Getting more and more involved in shitcoins is truly going to help Grayscale, right?

Decent amount of shitcoins there, but ETC at the 3rd spot really sticks out like a sore thumb (not that BCH at 5th is much better). Isn't that like a half dead project, with nothing really going on and on top of of that they had several successful 51% attack in the last few years?

Whats the catch, as I just can't wrap my head around it.

Many of us appreciate that bitcoin (and crypto perhaps?) for that matter can be pretty damned unforgiving for mistakes, and if Barry et al get caught on the wrong side of doing things whether attempts at betting or attempts at manipulation, he could get his ass handed to him pretty damned badly.

I strive not to follow shitcoins with any kind of specificity or even potentialities in getting caught up in nonsense analysis or nonsense indications of what is happening or what might happen.  Nonetheless, I do recall that Barry et al has been a pretty damned BIG ETC supporter ever since soon after the initial creation of ETC.. so likely due to Barry et al's single-handed endorsement of that ETC product, he has likely helped to keep it from fading away into oblivion.

I bet in terms of dollars, his ETC has performed decently well, and who knows if ETC might have any chances of picking up considerable market support in the event that various aspects of ETH fail in their purported transition to ETH 2.0 (proof of stake) or whatever other various weaknesses that ETH might have that ETC might be in a better place to take over rather than some other ETH imitation shitcoin.

Again, I don't tend to follow any of these matters in any kind of detail, but it is difficult to ignore when so many business are getting involved in various aspects of shitcoins - and might even cause some of my exposure to such businesses whether Gemini, Binance, Bitstamp or even some of the support on hardware wallets to become more vulnerable or even controversial due to some of their shitcoin support choices.

I suppose that there are degrees in all of these matters, and each of us have to attempt to decide how much to pay attention to these matters or maybe to direct our attention in other ways including my decision to post about Grayscale in a joking kind of way regarding what seems to be a lot of ongoing shitcoin plays... Time will tell if these matters play out well, and Barry does not seem to be any kind of dummy even though the market has been going against him in recent times, and surely we might really know if something might be about to blow up until it actually already has blown up (even if signs are there)...

Some peeps think that Grayscale could get rescued by a ETF approval (its own), but just imagine that sometimes even peeps within the govt do take sides from time to time, and some of them may well prefer to put a wee bit of pressure (drama) on the bitcoin space by supporting some competitor and denying Grayscale and sitting back in popcorn mode to see how that plays out... of course, I don't know shit, so I am just speculating about some things that could happen to throw some curve balls into the space.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 21, 2021, 09:09:42 PM
 #316

Digital Currency Group (DCG) has increased the planned volume of purchases of GBTC and announces its intention to purchase shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in the amount of up to $ 750 million, which is three times more than announced in March, as of April 30, 2021, DCG has already spent $193.5 million for this purpose  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210503005293/en/Digital-Currency-Group-Announces-Plan-to-Increase-Purchase-of-Shares-of-Grayscale-Bitcoin-Trust-OTCQX-GBTC#.YI_uDWwpo-s.twitter




Thank you for sharing this. I saw this news during the day, but I am quite busy IRL in those days, so you nicely updated the thread.

There are a few important parts of the information here:

  • Grayscale is desperate. They do not have premium where they need it (BTC fund has a negative premium) hand they have it where they do not need it (LTC has a ridiculously expensive premium of 880%)
  • They are launching a bigger Buyback while in reality, they haven't purchased the whole first chunk of shares.
  • They are signalling negative premium won't be tolerated, rather than actually buying. "After "do not fight the FED", "do not fight Grayscale" is coming? I don't think so.


Hmm so there's a way for them to redeem 2%/yr. They just have to take out their management fees, sell BTC on open market and buy 2% of their own outstanding shares on secondary. They're injecting $ into the fund and with 20% discount for every $0,80 they're inject they're erasing $1


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May 21, 2021, 09:55:16 PM
Last edit: May 21, 2021, 11:13:14 PM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #317

<...>
Hmm so there's a way for them to redeem 2%/yr. They just have to take out their management fees, sell BTC on open market and buy 2% of their own outstanding shares on secondary. They're injecting $ into the fund and with 20% discount for every $0,80 they're inject they're erasing $1



This is exactly what they are doing. This is a gigantic arbitrage for them. The point is it is not working, and the premium is staying negative.

Even the buying press from speculators doing cash and carry using the future contango wasn’t enough to lift shares into positive territory.

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May 21, 2021, 11:08:43 PM
Merited by fillippone (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #318

Digital Currency Group (DCG) has increased the planned volume of purchases of GBTC and announces its intention to purchase shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in the amount of up to $ 750 million, which is three times more than announced in March, as of April 30, 2021, DCG has already spent $193.5 million for this purpose  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210503005293/en/Digital-Currency-Group-Announces-Plan-to-Increase-Purchase-of-Shares-of-Grayscale-Bitcoin-Trust-OTCQX-GBTC#.YI_uDWwpo-s.twitter




Thank you for sharing this. I saw this news during the day, but I am quite busy IRL in those days, so you nicely updated the thread.

There are a few important parts of the information here:

  • Grayscale is desperate. They do not have premium where they need it (BTC fund has a negative premium) hand they have it where they do not need it (LTC has a ridiculously expensive premium of 880%)
  • They are launching a bigger Buyback while in reality, they haven't purchased the whole first chunk of shares.
  • They are signalling negative premium won't be tolerated, rather than actually buying. "After "do not fight the FED", "do not fight Grayscale" is coming? I don't think so.


Hmm so there's a way for them to redeem 2%/yr. They just have to take out their management fees, sell BTC on open market and buy 2% of their own outstanding shares on secondary. They're injecting $ into the fund and with 20% discount for every $0,80 they're inject they're erasing $1



This is exactely what they are doing. This is a gigantic arbitrage for them. The poin is it is not working, and the premium is staying negative.

Even the buying press from speculators doing cash and carry using the future contango wasn’t enough to lift shares into positive territory.

There's just wayyy too many shares in the pipeline so they aren't making a dent, yet. GBTC demand is instant but supply is lagging by 6month, so currently we're just experiencing oversupply.

On 21/1/21 GBTC held BTC646k and 46,47% of that was restricted, that's BTC300k or $9.8B almost a half of AUM is in the 6month pipeline waiting to hit the secondary OTC market. That's a lot of supply to be absorbed! On 20/11/20 there was almost BTC11k inflow in a single day which was unlocked yesterday ($440MM).  Currently restricted shares are down to 20% (which is still very high) and should go down to 0% by September at which point (baring ETF) i'm expecting the trend to start turning into premium. Until then there's around BTC2.373/day on average in GBTC supply for the  secondary to absorb, with lower BTC prices this should become easier.

"Feeeeed me Roger!"  -Bcash
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May 22, 2021, 12:19:02 AM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #319

Article bullish on the GBTC premium even going as far as calling it an arb opportunity
"The Price For Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Makes No Sense"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429445-arbitrage-opportunity-the-price-for-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-makes-no-sense

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May 26, 2021, 07:48:07 PM
Merited by hugeblack (2)
 #320

ETF that'll offer up to 15% exposure to BTC through GBTC. Roundabout way of doing things but possible much needed new $$$ for GBTC
New ETF Invests in @Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust $GBTC $SPBC
The fund, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 23, will invest at least 80% of its net assets in U.S. equity securities, and expects to invest up to 15% of net assets in Bitcoin via the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
The SEC has not prohibited the closed-end funds invested in Bitcoin (like Grayscale), lawyer Nicolas Morgan said.
https://twitter.com/Sonnenshein/status/1397568938276532224
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/05/25/new-etf-would-invest-in-grayscale-bitcoin-trust/?cmp=share_twitter

My comment: Greyscale vs SEC - check and mate!

"Feeeeed me Roger!"  -Bcash
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