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Author Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!  (Read 16411 times)
fillippone (OP)
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October 08, 2021, 10:57:03 AM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 10:54:34 PM by fillippone
Merited by hugeblack (4), vapourminer (3), JayJuanGee (2), Daltonik (2)
 #441


I already unleashed my hounds to fetch the whole story. I will keep you updated.


Here you go, my hounds fetched the research:

Quote
GBTC Liquidity, Trading and Shorting
BI ETFs, Global Dashboard

GBTC Shrugs Off OTC Label, Signaling Demand for U.S. Bitcoin ETF
Contributing Analysts Eric Balchunas (Strategy)

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) dominates trading among global cryptocurrency funds despite being listed over the counter, indicating to us that a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF would be an immediate success. GBTC's structure has left it at a discount for months, meaning it no longer acts as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. (09/30/21)

1. Volume Dominance Despite OTC Trading

GBTC dominates Bitcoin funds globally, with more than $400 million in average daily notional trading in 2021, despite its over-the-counter status. BTCetc-ETC Group Physical Bitcoin (BTCE GR) is a distant second at $35 million a day, followed by Bitcoin Tracker One (COINXBT SS), the first Bitcoin exchange-traded product, at $15 million. Bitcoin ETPs are available in Brazil, Canada, Switzerland, Sweden and Germany. 3iQ's Bitcoin Fund (QBTC/U CN), a closed-end fund, has surrendered the trading lead in Canada to Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC CN), which launched Feb. 24. GBTC's volume indicates to us that a U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF would likely dominate global cryptocurrency-fund trading. The SEC has repeatedly rejected ETF proposals, citing concerns about market oversight, but may approve a futures-based ETF in 4Q. (09/30/21)

Bitcoin Funds Trading Turnover ($ Volume)

2. No Longer a Leveraged Play on Bitcoin
Contributing Analysts Eric Balchunas (Strategy)

A limited supply of shares amid surging demand underpinned GBTC's historical premium, causing it to act like a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, but that trend ended this year as the fund descended into a discount. In six of the seven biggest peaks to troughs (and vice versa) from 2017-21, GBTC's swings were more extreme than Bitcoin's. From March 2020 through early 2021, GBTC had its most extreme divergence, beating Bitcoin by 181 percentage points. GBTC underperformed by 41 points from late January to mid-April, though, and has since traded close to the cryptocurrency. If GBTC can convert to an ETF, it could again be used as a leveraged play as the discount closes to zero. (09/30/21)

GBTC's Return vs. Bitcoin's

3. Collapsing Short Positions and No Options

Short interest in GBTC has plummeted to 0.3% after rising steadily since its public listing in May 2015 to a peak of 9.74% in April 2020, during the height of coronavirus-related volatility. The ability to short a fund adds to its appeal for some investors -- especially hedge funds -- but borrowing GBTC was expensive. It cost 5.5-15% in 2020, with an average of 10.74%, according to S3 Partners data. Since June, though, the rate has averaged only 1.3% as GBTC traded at a steep discount. GBTC lacks options, limiting its liquidity and the ability of market participants to hedge risks.(09/30/21)

GBTC Short Interest as % of Shares Out

4. Historical Cost to Short GBTC Varies Wildly
(09/30/21)

GBTC Borrow Rates

Costly GBTC Beats Bitcoin-Fund Competitors in All But Tracking The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has maintained its global dominance in Bitcoin-fund assets and liquidity in the absence of a U.S.-listed cryptocurrency ETP, but that could change as more competitors enter the market. GBTC trails Bitcoin performance by thousands of percentage points over the past five years and charges a relatively high 2% fee. (09/27/21)


5. Competing With Bitcoin Funds Outside U.S.

The SEC has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin ETP proposals since the Winklevoss twins filed the first in 2013. The lack of a U.S.-listed ETP has helped GBTC approach $30 billion in assets despite trading over the counter and charging 2% annually. GBTC launched in September 2013 as a private trust and has benefited from that first-mover advantage. It dominates in assets and liquidity globally, even though Bitcoin ETPs available in Europe and Canada offer a more efficient structure. GBTC's fee is substantially higher than the average ETP's yet in-line with other older publicly traded Bitcoin funds. Bitcoin ETFs launched in Canada in February and have attracted billions in assets, with two funds nearing $1 billion each. GBTC's inefficient structure has underpinned its poor performance in 2021. (09/27/21)

Traded Bitcoin Funds -- Tale of the Tape

6. Retail Competitors Available in U.S. But Ignored

In the U.S., many private equity funds and hedge funds invest directly in crypto assets, but GBTC was the only Bitcoin fund that retail investors could buy until February, when the Osprey Bitcoin Trust (OBTC) began trading. It now has $120 million in assets. In July, Stone Ridge and ProFunds launched open-end funds that hold Bitcoin futures, but neither one has attracted much interest. Investors may prefer an ETF (or at least a tradeable fund) and funds that hold Bitcoin directly, rather than futures. Institutional Bitcoin products launched by Stone Ridge and VanEck in 2019 failed to gain assets and liquidated. Wilshire Phoenix, after its planned ETF was rejected, submitted an S-1 proposal that could be a direct competitor to GBTC. (09/27/21)

Public U.S. Bitcoin Funds -- Tale of the Tape


7. Tracks Bitcoin Poorly Despite High Correlation

GBTC holds Bitcoin directly yet doesn't replicate its price moves. The gap has widened in 2021 as GBTC collapsed into a persistent discount. From 2016 through 2020 the fund had an 85% daily and 75% weekly correlation to Bitcoin's price, while maintaining a daily beta of 1.052 to the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin returned about 2,900% in the period, and GBTC roughly 2,600%. This year, Bitcoin is up 54% and GBTC just 12%, despite maintaining a 90% daily correlation and a beta of 1.04. These differences add up: Since 2016, GBTC has trailed Bitcoin by more than 4,000 percentage
points. (09/27/21)

GBTC vs. Bitcoin Performance


8. Unhindered by Price Swings, Inefficiencies

Bitcoin's price affects the value of GBTC's assets, but the trust pulled in money amid all market conditions when it was still open to new investors. With no redemptions allowed, GBTC's assets grew faster than Bitcoin's rate of return, highlighting demand for access to the cryptocurrency within the traditional financial system. Daily inflows peaked at more than $600 million on Jan. 19, shortly before the fund was closed to new investors. Bitcoin's December 2017 price of about $20,000 coincided with GBTC assets of $3.2 billion. The cryptocurrency's price has since more than doubled, while GBTC's assets have swelled about ninefold to nearly $30 billion after reaching $40 billion (09/27/21)

GBTC Assets & Flows ($ Billion)


9. Suite of Crypto Trusts Continues to Expand

Grayscale has a suite of 15 trusts, with 13 focused on individual crypto assets and two holding baskets of cryptos. Each is at a different maturity and not all trade over the counter. The largest after GBTC, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), operates identically to its sibling, but holds Ethereum instead of Bitcoin. It has a history of even more extreme premiums than GBTC, peaking at 2,022% when it began trading, but now stands at a discount, like many of Grayscale's products. Grayscale's other single-asset trusts hold Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum Classic, Horizen, Litecoin, Stellar Lumens, Zcash, Filecoin, Decentraland, Livepeer, Chainlink and Basic Attention Token. The Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund holds six cryptos, with 92% in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Grayscale Defi Fund holds 10 defi-focused cryptos. (09/27/21)

Grayscale's Second-Largest Crypto Fund (NAV<Go>)


Gold or Bitcoin? Store-of-Value Debate Rages as Bitcoin Grows
Contributing Analysts Eric Balchunas (Strategy)

The debate between gold bugs and Bitcoin believers over which is the better store of value will likely persist as prices for both rise. The gold camp cites the metal's long history vs. Bitcoin's instability and lack of regulatory support. Grayscale and Bitcoin backers see the cryptocurrency as "digital gold," with superior efficiency and potential. (09/22/21)

10. Complementary Assets in a Portfolio
Contributing Analysts Mike McGlone (Strategy)

Rather than positioning Bitcoin and gold as polar alternative assets, we think they can complement each other in a portfolio. Gold has better applications in some cases, and Bitcoin in others. Bitcoin is more transportable and divisible, and more applicable as a currency. But gold is more stable, with a proven track record. Both offer virtually no correlation to traditional asset classes, with gold's correlation at 0. Still, Bitcoin is currently most aptly characterized as a speculative asset. For these reasons and due to the potential for Bitcoin to eventually become a store of value, many institutions and investors are converting at least small portions of their gold positions to Bitcoin as a hedge and diversifier. (09/22/21)

Comparison: Bitcoin vs. Gold

11. U.S. Tax Rates More Favorable for Bitcoin
Contributing Analysts Mike McGlone (Strategy)

Gold and Bitcoin have different long-term U.S. tax rates (on investments bought and sold over more than one year). For short-term capital gains (on investments bought and sold within a year), both are taxed at the individual's income-tax rate. Bitcoin is taxed in the same way as stock ownership, with a long-term capital-gains rate of 0-20%, depending on income level. Gold is taxed as a collectible and therefore carries a long-term rate of 28%, irrespective of an investor's income.(09/22/21)

Bitcoin vs. Gold Long-Term Tax Rate


12. Limited Supply and Fixed Inflation

Bitcoin is already a store of value within the world of cryptocurrencies and could be embraced on a wider scale. Gold has been accepted as a store of value globally for centuries, but the amount available on Earth is finite and the mining rate has been relatively stable, with World Gold Council estimates of above-ground supply increasing about 1-2% a year. Bitcoin's limited supply and controlled inflation are its monetary backbone. The last Bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140 (coded to a maximum of 21 million coins), according to a fixed, disinflationary schedule. Gold supply theoretically could jump from the discovery of a massive deposit or the advent of space mining, though either is unlikely. Potential concerns for Bitcoin include a blockchain hack via quantum computing and government bans. (09/22/21)

Bitcoin vs. Gold: Supply & Inflation


13. Medium-of-Exchange Edge Goes to Bitcoin

Bitcoin is superior to gold as a medium of exchange or form of payment. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is a fixed unit of account and easily divisible and transportable. Gold isn't easily divisible on the spot, and there are potential issues with purity and verification. The ability to trace Bitcoin on blockchain ledger technology will likely prove to be a substantial advantage, especially in cross-border transactions.  Digital currencies are starting to be accepted as a form of payment with vendors and retailers. Many working in the crypto community are paid in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. In addition, a growing number of professional athletes and others have signed up for services that automatically convert income into cryptocurrencies upon fiat payment. (09/22/21)


Bitcoin Easier to Use as Currency Than Gold


14. Superior Stability, Smaller Declines for Gold

Bitcoin's price volatility and history of drawdowns limit its use as a store of value, and even as a form of payment. Gold supporters contend that an asset can't be a store of value when it's capable of declining 80% in 12 months, as Bitcoin has. Yet gold isn't entirely immune -- from September 2011 to December 2015, for example, the metal fell about 45% in U.S. dollar terms. Bitcoin's volatility is another concern. Since launching, prices have been 4-5x as volatile as gold's, making it difficult for merchants to accept the cryptocurrency as payment. Bitcoin's average intraday price change in the past three years has exceeded 5%. That's down from 6.4% a few years ago, while gold's volatility has been relatively stable. (09/22/21)
Bitcoin vs. Gold-Price Volatility & Drawdowns


15. Gold a Better Store of Value for Now
Contributing Analysts Mike McGlone (Strategy)

Bitcoin is still best characterized as a speculative, risk-on asset. As Tyrone Ross Jr. of Onramp Invest told Bloomberg Television in 2019, "Bitcoin is a call option on a store of value." Though some of Bitcoin's characteristics give it store-of-value potential, others currently make that non-viable. For example, since 2013, Bitcoin's value has swung by thousands of percentage points, while gold has been comparatively steady. Bitcoin enthusiasts view its payoff scenario as similar to a call option with asymmetric upside potential. (09/22/21)

Bitcoin vs. Gold-Price Percentage Changes

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October 11, 2021, 08:36:32 AM
Merited by fillippone (3)
 #442

Grayscale announces an official partnership in digital currency asset management with the New York Giants, which is the official source of the latest news on everything related to games from match ticket bookings to statistics and game schedules.


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October 15, 2021, 10:47:11 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 10:48:27 PM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)
 #443

As you probably know, an ETF has just been approved.
First loser: Grayscale, who has more than double the commission of the new ETF:


https://twitter.com/jseyff/status/1449010847074897933?s=21

We will see what happens next, of course at Grayscale they have a plan for this event carefully planned over the last months.

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October 17, 2021, 11:28:16 AM
Merited by vapourminer (3), fillippone (3), zasad@ (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #444

As you probably know, an ETF has just been approved.
First loser: Grayscale, who has more than double the commission of the new ETF:


https://twitter.com/jseyff/status/1449010847074897933?s=21

We will see what happens next, of course at Grayscale they have a plan for this event carefully planned over the last months.

But as CNBC reports, citing a source familiar with the matter, apparently they foresaw this, so Grayscale Investments plans to apply for the conversion of a bitcoin trust into a spot ETF at the beginning of next week.
According to the interlocutor of the TV channel, the company will send documents to the SEC when the agency approves the futures ETF, well, since approval has already happened, then nothing prevents the filing of such an application.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/15/grayscale-investments-close-to-filing-application-for-spot-bitcoin-etf-source-says-.html
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October 17, 2021, 04:57:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #445

As you probably know, an ETF has just been approved.
First loser: Grayscale, who has more than double the commission of the new ETF:


https://twitter.com/jseyff/status/1449010847074897933?s=21

We will see what happens next, of course at Grayscale they have a plan for this event carefully planned over the last months.

But as CNBC reports, citing a source familiar with the matter, apparently they foresaw this, so Grayscale Investments plans to apply for the conversion of a bitcoin trust into a spot ETF at the beginning of next week.
According to the interlocutor of the TV channel, the company will send documents to the SEC when the agency approves the futures ETF, well, since approval has already happened, then nothing prevents the filing of such an application.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/15/grayscale-investments-close-to-filing-application-for-spot-bitcoin-etf-source-says-.html

We all saw this coming (just look at the post above).
We know English royals have a closely planned protocol ready for the inveivtsble event of the death of the queen, with a series of events happening in a precisely planned and carefully pondered.

So this must be true also for Grayscale: they have been lobbying againstfor an ETF approval since a few years. So they already have a plan , of course. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow to the discount to NAV. Will it go away all at once looking for a quick approval? Or it will stay the same as a Grayscale ETF would be a “physically backed ETF” hence with a very uncertain approval? It will be interesting to see.

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October 18, 2021, 07:30:10 PM
Last edit: May 14, 2023, 05:12:53 PM by Charles-Tim
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #446

So this must be true also for Grayscale: they have been lobbying againstfor an ETF approval since a few years. So they already have a plan , of course.
I have been seen news related to bitcoin ETF recently and I know Grayscale wanted this long ago, I had to check this thread to know what is going on. That is what is going to happen, Grayscale are eager and have been waiting for this to come true. Likely Grayscale will convert or proceed to convert Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to bitcoin ETF when SEC has formally expressed their requisite comfort with the underlying Bitcoin market, says Jennifer Rosenthal, Grayscale communications director.

     

So we should be expecting this very soon.

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October 19, 2021, 03:06:51 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), fillippone (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #447

Grayscale officially announces the filing of NYSE Arca application Form 19b-4 with the SEC to convert the flagship product Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust (OTCQX: GBTC) into a spot bitcoin ETF. If the ETF is approved, current GBTC holders will not need to take proactive action; the shares will be automatically converted into ETF shares.  https://grayscale.com/our-filing-to-convert-gbtc-into-an-etf/

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October 19, 2021, 09:06:42 PM
 #448

Grayscale officially announces the filing of NYSE Arca application Form 19b-4 with the SEC to convert the flagship product Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust (OTCQX: GBTC) into a spot bitcoin ETF. If the ETF is approved, current GBTC holders will not need to take proactive action; the shares will be automatically converted into ETF shares.  https://grayscale.com/our-filing-to-convert-gbtc-into-an-etf/

I haven't looked closely at their proposal, so I'm not sure how it differs to all the others that got shot down.  Or is it open season now?  I don't know how these regulators think.  Doesn't make much sense to me how one gets approved while another gets rejected.

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October 19, 2021, 11:22:21 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #449


I haven't looked closely at their proposal, so I'm not sure how it differs to all the others that got shot down.  Or is it open season now?  I don't know how these regulators think.  Doesn't make much sense to me how one gets approved while another gets rejected.

Their application is totally different, as if GBTC gets converted to an ETF it would be this first to be a physically backed one. It would be a totally different story.

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October 20, 2021, 04:50:19 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 10:46:24 PM by fillippone
Merited by vapourminer (3), JayJuanGee (2)
 #450

Today Bloomberg Published a research on comparing Grayscale to the BITO, the infamous Future based ETF.

I am wondering if it is worth opening a(another) thread specifically dedicated to that ETF.

Quote
GBTC vs. BITO, New Futures-Based Bitcoin ETF

BI Commodities & Crypto, Global Dashboard
Bitcoin ETFs Pit Hedge Funds vs. Investors, and Both May Prevail
(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- A roughly 20% discount for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) vs. a steep futures contango may represent two key forces: Help for Bitcoin's price and pressure on volatility. We see buy-and-hold types tilting toward GBTC and the more tactical focusing on futures-based ETFs. Wide spreads are gaining arbitrage resistance.

  • 1. What Could Go Wrong - 20% Bitcoin Discount?
    Bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded funds in the U.S. increase the potential for eventual approval of ETFs that track the crypto itself, which should narrow GBTC's discount of about 20% toward zero. It pits the risk of a widening rebate against the potential for the adoption trend to continue. Our bias is with the latter, which may not reach a pinnacle until ETFs that track a gauge like the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index are available. Exposure to a crypto index may be more prudent than tracking a single asset, but to get there, actual Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs likely need to come first.
    Grayscale has said it's committed to converting GBTC to an ETF. We see that as a matter of time, notably with a new digital divide opening vs. China, which may make Bitcoin and crypto success a vested interest of the U.S. (10/20/21)


  • 2. GBTC Set to Surpass GLD as Top Commodity ETF
    Despite its discounted price, the rising assets of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are on a clear trajectory to overtake the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) as the world's largest commodity ETF. Our graphic depicts GBTC divergent strength, which is at a new high when measuring total assets vs. GLD. This condition may indicate the beginning of a wider migration out of more traditional assets - in this case gold - toward Bitcoin, which appears well on its way to becoming the benchmark
    digital reserve asset.
    Around the Bitcoin low in July, GBTC assets dipped to about one-third those of GLD. At just over 70% on Oct. 19, the GBTC/GLD asset ratio is above the peak from April despite the crypto remaining below its high. We suggest this accentuates the extent of gold outflows vs. Bitcoin inflows. (10/20/21)



  • 3. How Long Can GBTC Disparity Last vs. Futures?
    The ability to buy GBTC and short futures and get exposure to Bitcoin with about a 25% price advantage should continue to attract arbitrage, reduce volatility and narrow spreads. Our graphic depicts the GBTC discount reaching just over 20% vs. the rolling sixth Bitcoin future (March 2022) at about a 4% premium to the spot price. Futures contango is likely to narrow with wider participation and greater depth. The GBTC discount should head toward par if the trust converts to an ETF.
    We see increasing pressure for the Securities and Exchange Commission to approve the GBTC ETF request, and it may become dominant in the space. Risks for arbitrageurs are that the spreads widen, but we see eventual compression on the back of increasing depth, participation, and reduced margin costs. (10/20/21)




  • 4. Traders Likely to Favor Bitcoin Futures ETFs
    Contributing Analysts James Seyffart (Strategy)
    Bitcoin ETFs have been touted as solutions for advisers seeking client exposure to the cryptocurrency in a familiar wrapper, but we believe the first ones will be mostly tools for traders.
    The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), set to launch Tuesday, will track front-month Bitcoin futures, providing high sensitivity to Bitcoin over the short and maybe medium term. But the fund's ability to track spot prices will break down over the long term due to the costs of keeping front month exposure -- likely 10-20 percentage points a year.
    Advisers, familiar with roll costs due to experience with commodity funds, will probably opt to get crypto exposure directly or via stocks that own a lot of Bitcoin. (10/18/21)




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October 21, 2021, 11:49:23 AM
Merited by Daltonik (3), JayJuanGee (2), vapourminer (1)
 #451

Sometimes I am happy, when il find some gems on Twitter.
Free knowledge for everyone.
So I am here sharing this thread, lots of food for toughs: 15 tweets all rolled up for your convenience!
Author: Ryan Selkis, founder of messari crypto.

Quote

1/ Grayscale continues to be the most misunderstood product in crypto...even amongst people who know a lot about the space, and the ETF arms race.
Today's announced DCG "buyback" is a sleight of hand that does nothing structurally to close the discount to NAV.

Let me explain:
2/ First, this is all public information, you just need to know where to look in the filings.
Grayscale is a wholly owned subsidiary of DCG.
They are the sponsor of the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC), a quasi-ETF with no redemptions.
More here:

Crypto Research, Data, and Tools
Gain an edge over the crypto market with professional grade data, tools, and research.
https://messari.io/article/grayscale-s-faustian-bargain

3/ A normal ETF has "authorized participants" (brokers) create and redeem baskets of shares by trading the underlying assets and the shares they represent until price per share = underlying net asset value.
Grayscale is not an ETF, it's a trust that went public through Rule 144.
 
4/ Rule 144 paved the way for accredited investors to pile into Grayscale trusts early, then flip them to retail for mega-premiums after a holding period of 6-12 months (depending on the trust).
It's a hack to bring these products to market, and it was a bootstrapping mechanism.

5/ The premiums existed because of a supply-demand imbalance. But then bitcoin got easier to access as an institutional investor, and the Grayscale trade got crowded in 2020. As new AUM hit the 6 month holding mark, it started flooding the public GBTC market.
Premium -> Discount

6/ Well no big deal, right? You can always redeem shares in an ETF for the underlying!
Not so fast.
Grayscale can't run a "continuous offering" of new shares AND offer a redemption program concurrently.
Ironically, they were slapped for doing so in 2016!
(Nice work, SEC)

7/ That means the only two paths to liquidity are GBTC sales or Grayscale pursuing a Reg M redemption program once again.
This is something they CAN do based on the fact that they have suspended their new creations and are no longer running a continuous offering.

8/ If you want something that is true, but not the whole truth, it's "we got in trouble for a Reg M redemption program in 2016, which is why we suspended it."
The whole truth is that a similar program is possible today, but why would Grayscale give up their AUM and ETF leverage?

9/ Grayscale as the sponsor is the ultimate decision maker when it comes to whether it:

+ files for an ETF conversion
+ pursues a Reg M redemption program
+ liquidates its trusts
All three are money from one pocket to the other.

10/ Door #1 is the sensible path. I'm on team Barry. @GaryGensler is asleep at the wheel or willfully complicit in the $8 billion gap that exists between GBTC and the trust's NAV.
Grayscale will "pursue" this path, with 0% urgency to actually making it to market as a spot ETF.

11/ That's because!!! They can claim they can't do Door #1 and Door #2 concurrently.
"We won't do redemptions until the SEC approves an ETF" is them holding AUM hostage until Gensler allows GBTC to convert.
In the meantime, the gravy train keeps running.

12/ This brings us to the "news" DCG is authorized to scoop up $1 billion in GBTC.
This isn't heroism, it's a PR stunt to make unwitting investors think DCG can close the NAV gap (impossible given the size of the trust).
What they're doing is buying a 100% free call option.
 
13/ Why is this a free option?
+ Door #1: ETF converts, GBTC comes back to par
+ Door #2: AUM sits there, DCG is *paying itself* the 2% management fee to its wholly owned sub, grayscale
+ Door #3: They roll out reg m redemptions OR liquidate the trust. btc get distributed at par

14/ This is a clever PR move, and I don't fault Grayscale for playing the SEC's game, even though it's on par with Ripple's shenanigans in terms of misdirection.
What makes this galling is that @GaryGensler would rather allow this to continue vs. approve a spot ETF.

15/ It's absolutely disgusting. @GaryGensler is a bald-faced liar if this is what he calls investor protection.
They should approve the GBTC conversion. Grayscale has earned its fees, but not at the expense of shareholders who the SEC is supposed to protect.
cc: @paulvigna @nathanielpopper @TheStalwart

https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1450808796205441025?s=21

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October 23, 2021, 07:35:08 AM
Merited by fillippone (3), JayJuanGee (2)
 #452

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein on Yahoo Finance Live, expresses his opinion about the first bitcoin futures ETF, as well as the prospects of cryptocurrencies and the prospects of launching a bitcoin ETF in Grayscale. Sonnenshein believes that investing in crypto shows no signs of stopping.

“Well, the digital asset class is here for a long time, and investors generally appreciate it. Investing in cryptography has now become something thematic, right?" Sonnenschein said. "Investors have historically had access to energy, healthcare or technology. Now cryptography occupies a significant part of this portfolio. So among this, as a topic for investors, there has never been a stronger desire to diversify”"

CEO Grayscale noted a serious regulatory problem for crypto markets, and the issue of pricing, which has been the main problem of the SEC for the past few years, is also serious. According to Sonnenshein, over the past few years, Grayscale has been actively working with regulators and industry partners to facilitate the launch of bitcoin ETFs in Grayscale.

”We've been waiting for our regulators to get the comfort they need to bring these products to market," Sonnenschein said. “And now that we believe they have the necessary comfort they need, it's time to not only open the doors for bitcoin futures-based products, but also for physically supported products.”

He also described the trend of new products for investors expanding and diversifying their opportunities in the crypto space as a trend that "shows no signs of slowing down."


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October 23, 2021, 12:10:05 PM
Merited by fillippone (3)
 #453

Sonnenschein said. “And now that we believe they have the necessary comfort they need, it's time to not only open the doors for bitcoin futures-based products, but also for physically supported products.”

I get the impression he specifically means his physically supported product, heh.

Subtlety perhaps isn't one of his strong suits.   Cheesy

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Daltonik
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October 26, 2021, 09:29:18 AM
Merited by fillippone (3), JayJuanGee (1)
 #454

Global Head of Grayscale Dave Lavalle to speak at marketwatch event Investing in Crypto will take place on October 27, also as can be seen on the announcement page of the event, Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor will be there as a speaker.  https://twitter.com/Grayscale/status/1452696469597790210


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November 02, 2021, 11:39:45 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #455

Digital Currency Group, the parent company of Grayscale, is recruiting a team of financial advisors for the asset management division. According to The Block, the new business direction will be focused on cryptomillionaires, that is, those who, for example, with $150,000 managed to earn $2 million and simply do not know what to do with them next. DCG will work with the world's leading cryptocurrency blockchains and entrepreneurs and investors DeFi.
journalist Frank Chaparro drew attention to the firm's plans:"Finally, DCG is building a new subsidiary, which will open in 2022. There's more to come."

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/122905/dcg-is-hiring-advisors-for-a-planned-wealth-management-business-aimed-at-crypto-millionaires

Previously, Barry Silbert's DCG company was valued at $10 billion following a private sale of securities by existing shareholders in the amount of $700 million.

https://twitter.com/BarrySilbert/status/1455130214976139268 The Block

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November 03, 2021, 11:59:36 AM
 #456

Digital Currency Group, the parent company of Grayscale, is recruiting a team of financial advisors for the asset management division. According to The Block, the new business direction will be focused on cryptomillionaires, that is, those who, for example, with $150,000 managed to earn $2 million and simply do not know what to do with them next. DCG will work with the world's leading cryptocurrency blockchains and entrepreneurs and investors DeFi

Now that the GBTC days, as a 200 basis points yearly revenue are numbered, DCG is seeking new revenue flows to stay afloat.
I have doubts about their strategy, but probably they made careful planning of this move.

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November 04, 2021, 03:16:38 AM
 #457

Digital Currency Group, the parent company of Grayscale, is recruiting a team of financial advisors for the asset management division. According to The Block, the new business direction will be focused on cryptomillionaires, that is, those who, for example, with $150,000 managed to earn $2 million and simply do not know what to do with them next. DCG will work with the world's leading cryptocurrency blockchains and entrepreneurs and investors DeFi

Now that the GBTC days, as a 200 basis points yearly revenue are numbered, DCG is seeking new revenue flows to stay afloat.
I have doubts about their strategy, but probably they made careful planning of this move.


Why do you say their 200bps days are numbered? Do you expect US to approve their application to convert GBTC into spot ETF? At current -14% discount to NAV market doesn't seem to think that it'll happen anytime soon. If market values GBTC shares at 14% discount to NAV now, wondering if hype of spot ETF will be enough to offset the redemption rate once people can exit the $28BB fund at NAV

"Feeeeed me Roger!"  -Bcash
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November 04, 2021, 12:55:42 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), DaRude (1)
 #458

Grayscale Bitcoin Fund filled out form 19b-4, which was noticed by the SEC. This means that the countdown has begun for future hearings on converting $GBTC into an ETF, as @etfhearsay says on twitter. According to the filing notice, within 45 days from the date of publication of the notice filed by Grayscale, the SEC will approve or disapprove the rule change or proceed to determine whether to reject the rule.
Therefore, the first possible approval date, with the exception of SEC extensions, is December 24.
https://u.today/grayscale-bitcoin-fund-to-be-possibly-converted-to-etf-on-december-24


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November 04, 2021, 05:30:08 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 10:40:56 PM by fillippone
Merited by Daltonik (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #459

@Daltonik beated me again on the news, as I am quite busy IRL right now, but the point is the following: as thexapprov of the ETF gets more and more likely, the NAV discount has to go. So, yeah @DaRude, you are right: at the moment the huge discount signals market is not betting on ETF conversion, but this has eventually to change. And news like this one should definitely put some pressure on the buy side.


EDIT: Apparently not everyone is bullish on the approval this year:


https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1456263813783699459?s=21


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November 08, 2021, 08:46:40 AM
Merited by fillippone (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #460

According to @Ericbalchunas, Grayscale Investments has applied to launch an ETF called Grayscale Future of Finance, its composition will be formed by shares of blockchain-related companies. The instrument will receive the GFOF (Grayscale Future of Finance ETF) ticker.


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