Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!

[fillippone]

The grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium has demonstrated some kind of resilience during the last weeks:



After touching a historical low at almost -30%, it has crawled back to -23%.
The cause of this could be seen in the new round of spot Bitcoin approval in Australia.
AUSTRALIA Approves first BITCOIN SPOT ETF

Even if the impact of those ETFs could be minimal, adding another legislation (in a common law system, I would add), is going to put more pressure on the SEC to approve the GBTC conversion from TRUST to ETF, with all the obvious consequences on the price.
So, the discount can be interpreted as a measure of the amount of expectation by the market for this event to occur (the lower the discount, the higher the probability), was marginally reduced.

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[Oshosondy]

It has been announced on Twitter by Grayscale that they have moved further as GBTC is now trading on Robinhood.

https://twitter.com/Grayscale/status/1522567545651347458?s=20&t=xzVMkY4axtFdsFMJgTaHvQ
There's two new ways to access crypto on
@RobinhoodApp
You can start trading $GBTC and $ETHE today.

It is also announced that people can also trade ether without trading the asset directly on Robinhood which is $ETHE.

[fillippone]

It has been announced on Twitter by Grayscale that they have moved further as GBTC is now trading on Robinhood.

Yet another way not to buy GBTC.
The discount is not because there are rare no ways to buy the shares, but because the shares are a bad match tracking the underlying Afghan

[fillippone]

Yet another effort from Grayscale: Jameson Loop makes us aware that GBTC asked every subscriber to post comment to the SEC.



They appear t one more actively pushing for the conversion.
They probably are sensing that an approval is getting more probable, and they don't want to lose their main role, as we say with BITO how big is the first comer advantage.

[Husires]

Yet another effort from Grayscale: Jameson Loop makes us aware that GBTC asked every subscriber to post comment to the SEC.

I'll quote Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium's response to CNBC you can find it here https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/sec-lays-out-path-to-coveted-spot-bitcoin-etf-but.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

But Gilbertie was not convinced of the effectiveness a such a tack arguing, “It would take years. The SEC is not going to succumb to that kind of pressure… unless you get a change in leadership who have a sea-change in how they are looking at things… they want to see crypto coins completely surveilled… I don’t see how they’re going to back down from that when they’re all about investor protection.”

I think his analysis is closer to reality, and such pressures will not affect SEC decisions in a way that makes them change their view.

Is there one of GBTC holders is considered a political figure?

[fillippone]

But Gilbertie was not convinced of the effectiveness a such a tack arguing, “It would take years. The SEC is not going to succumb to that kind of pressure… unless you get a change in leadership who have a sea-change in how they are looking at things… they want to see crypto coins completely surveilled… I don’t see how they’re going to back down from that when they’re all about investor protection.”

Each day without an ETF conversion is more and more difficult for the SEC to justify such a delay.
In the meantime investors are obliged to subscribe to something very different from the Bitcoin risk they want exposure to, and if they can take risk on Bitcoin, trough Pension Plan in Fidelity, for example, haven't the flexibility only a spot ETF could provide.

I sadly agree with Gilbertie: it could take years, but the SEC'position is very clear, even if unrelatable.

[fillippone]

Greyscale is usually quite downbeat on their effort to lobby the SEC. Given the considerable amount of fees they collect every day, I suggested that the stance to have the GBTC converted into an ETF, causing an immediate halt to this fee river in their chests, was more or less a showoff without any real traction.

I reckon this changed over the last few months. Above all, they saw different products approved by the SEC, and they know that being the first approved vehicle would be enormously beneficial to their business (example: BITO).

So they started reporting and pushing their effort.
Here you can find the latest news report (remember that Coindesk'parent company is the same as Grayscale) about yey another presentation n they gave to the sec:

Grayscale Had ‘Productive’ Meeting With SEC on Bitcoin ETF Conversion

Grayscale Investments LLC recently met with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to better make its case for turning the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
“Following a productive meeting, we remain encouraged by our ongoing engagement with the SEC,” a Grayscale spokesperson told CoinDesk. “At Grayscale, we intend to maintain an open dialogue with regulators and policymakers as we look ahead to July 6.”

You can find the presentation here:



I guess the meeting was productive, but the TERRA/LUNA debacle certainly didn't help the cause.

[fillippone]

Grayscale committed to launching their first ETF in Europe:

Grayscale Launches European 'Future of Finance' ETF Tracking Crypto Firms

The fund is based on the Bloomberg Grayscale Future of Finance Index (BGFOF), which tracks the performance of financial services companies “projected to be leaders of the emerging digital economy.”

This new ETF is not a Bitcoin ETF. But I guess there is a plan to quote a Spot Bitcoin ETF in Europe, something like the ones from 21Shares or the one from ETC group.

Once they have a Spot bitcoin ETF approved in Europe, they will have another bullet to fire at the SEC, when they refuse (once again) the GBTC conversion.

[fillippone]

Optimism is in the air?



Why is that?

Apparently in the comments someone is really positive on next request for approval round:



Since we are here, this is the last round of ETF approval deadlines:

[Lucius]

Optimism is in the air?

I don't know if it's optimism or the SEC has finally given in to the pressure from Grayscale and some other companies. Perhaps the threats of lawsuits and meetings have borne fruit, though the SEC is a tough nut to crack on this particular issue.

[m2017]

Optimism is in the air?

I don't know if it's optimism or the SEC has finally given in to the pressure from Grayscale and some other companies. Perhaps the threats of lawsuits and meetings have borne fruit, though the SEC is a tough nut to crack on this particular issue.

Maybe it's not about the pressure on SEC, but about the fact that  SEC has its own plans for bitcoin. After all, we can't know what is happening and being discussed in their offices. Optimism is a good thing, but I adhere to the idea of realism, therefore, I suggest waiting for the final result and then we will find out if SEC will approve Bitcoin.

In general, any organizations, whether commercial or governmental, always pursue their own interests and only their own in the first place. I'm not sure that they care about ordinary bitcoin holders and worry about their well-being.

[Zanab247]

I believe many people will like to be part of this moving train so that they will become a better person in future. Now that many people are looking for where to acquire a good profit to be successful in their investment, I think they will have something good to achieve from this Grayscale BTC because there are a lot of things people need to know about this Grayscale BTC that will really help them now and in future.

[fillippone]

I spoke about optimism in the air until a couple of days ago.
Spot ETF conversion is helping the cause, but apparently, the path is not set so clearly defined.

However, the discount on GBTC is telling a different story:



The discount on the premium should be telling the probability of an ETF conversion happening soon.  Instead, the premium is still hovering around -30%. Still too low compared to the local minimum in my opinion.

Also, the volumes seem quite flat during the last few sessions:



Yes, they are somewhat higher than in recent weeks but bear in mind that in case of extreme variations, usually, we observe higher volumes.

Also snatching a bitcoin in GBTC means buying the implied BTC at 14,000.
Not bad at all!

[Daltonik]

The discount on the shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin trust (GBTC) went even further and is at a historic low and reached a value of -34.08% on June 17, considering that by that time bitcoin had not yet fallen below $18,000, but was trading at about the same levels as now, is it possible that the discount will be even lower.

[fillippone]

The discount on the shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin trust (GBTC) went even further and is at a historic low and reached a value of -34.08% on June 17, considering that by that time bitcoin had not yet fallen below $18,000, but was trading at about the same levels as now, is it possible that the discount will be even lower.

I genuinely tought that low market price and hefty discount would have been beneficial to Grayscale. But I was wrong.
They had some flows, but the premium didn’t move substantially.

This is not good for them…

[Husires]

n a Monday letter to investors, Grayscale said that of the more than 11,400 letters the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, had received in regards to its proposed Bitcoin (BTC) investment vehicle, “99.96 percent of those comment letters were supportive of Grayscale’s case” as of June 9. According to Grayscale, roughly 33% of the letters questioned the lack of a spot BTC ETF in the U.S., given the SEC had already approved investment vehicles linked to Bitcoin futures, as was the case for ProShares and Valkyrie.

Will this change or should we not set high hopes?
All the talk from the director  may not be accurate or impartial at the moment, but is there any chance, even a small percentage, to convert shares of its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a physically-backed fund

Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-reports-99-of-sec-comment-letters-support-spot-bitcoin-etf

[JayJuanGee]

n a Monday letter to investors, Grayscale said that of the more than 11,400 letters the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, had received in regards to its proposed Bitcoin (BTC) investment vehicle, “99.96 percent of those comment letters were supportive of Grayscale’s case” as of June 9. According to Grayscale, roughly 33% of the letters questioned the lack of a spot BTC ETF in the U.S., given the SEC had already approved investment vehicles linked to Bitcoin futures, as was the case for ProShares and Valkyrie.

Will this change or should we not set high hopes?
All the talk from the director  may not be accurate or impartial at the moment, but is there any chance, even a small percentage, to convert shares of its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a physically-backed fund

Where's the link?

[Daltonik]

Grayscale reported that their application to convert GBTC into a spot ETF was denied by the SEC. Considering this decision discriminatory, the company filed a petition with the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to review the SEC's decision.

Official message from Grayscale: https://grayscale.com/sec-gbtc-decision/

[fillippone]

Grayscale reported that their application to convert GBTC into a spot ETF was denied by the SEC. Considering this decision discriminatory, the company filed a petition with the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to review the SEC's decision.

You didn’t need Eric Balchunas to understand the ETF conversion chances were slim; it was sufficient to look at the market discount over NAV.

I would say this lawsuit, they have been rightly preparing for during the last years, I would say, is crucial for the very existence of GBTC.

[Pesona1]

To be honest, I don't really follow the news about the issue between the SEC and Grayscales right now about the mention of bitcoin as a commodity by the SEC chairman, now it's been reported that all decisions will be made on July 6th and the main focus of the problem seems to be bitcoin, then What do you think the impact of all these decisions will be on altcoins like ETH and BNB that are not mentioned?