🔮 Futuur - Predict the Future! 🔮

[futuur]

🔮 Howdy, Forecasters! 🔮

We’re delighted to announce that Futuur, the world’s leading play-money prediction market, is now offering real-money markets in Bitcoin BTC!

Futuur is a prediction market, a people-powered forecasting engine where you can bet on real-world events, from sports to politics to science and everything in between. Our mission is to help improve decision-making by generating more accurate predictions about the greatest possible range of future events.  We do this by aggregating the “wisdom of the crowd” into a single, easy to understand percentage estimate for the likelihood of that event to occur.

Offering more than a thousand active markets! Check out current forecasts in:

💼  Business 💼
👏  Entertainment 👏
⚽  Sports ⚽
🗳️  Politics 🗳️
🔬  Science 🔬

It’s totally free to join and bet as much as you want using Ooms, our play-money currency! We’ve done our best to make the interface fast, fun, and social. Comment on markets, follow your friends to find out what they’re forecasting, and make your way up our leaderboards!

We have been operating play-money markets since 2017, and to date have resolved more than 35,000 markets with bets from over 15,000 forecasters. And we’ve seen a lot of success! Our average Brier score (the measurement statisticians use to evaluate the accuracy of probabilistic predictions) of 0.163 is a strong confirmation that our crowd-powered predictions actually work!

And now, you can bet with Bitcoin!  Bitcoin markets will operate in parallel to our Ooms markets, and will generate separate forecasts.  We think that this additional financial incentive -- more “skin in the game” -- will bring even more accurate forecasts as a result!









Useful links:
• Bitcoin FAQ
• Futuur Community Forums
• Suggest a Market

Connect with us on social media!
Twitter | Facebook | Instagram

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[futuur]

Check out our latest competition in the Games and Rounds forum!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5311398.msg56156699#msg56156699

[stomachgrowls]

One of the best things i do see on this site is that it doesnt only limit out for sports events which means you would
have lots of options to take on and as i have checked out one of examples about that Mars event.




You would see the numbers of activity which means theres soo much interest. If ooms would be converted or does have its
value then that would be good or can be directly converted to btc internally since it doesnt have current market value.

[futuur]

One of the best things i do see on this site is that it doesnt only limit out for sports events which means you would
have lots of options to take on and as i have checked out one of examples about that Mars event.




You would see the numbers of activity which means theres soo much interest. If ooms would be converted or does have its
value then that would be good or can be directly converted to btc internally since it doesnt have current market value.

Thanks stomachgrowls!  Yes, we strive to have the broadest coverage possible of all sorts of events, including but not limited to sports!

Regarding your question about Ooms: no, there's no way to convert Ooms to BTC.  Ooms are like points in a game, they tell you how you're doing as a forecaster, and allow you to show off your skills to the world.  But they aren't worth anything in terms of real money -- to bet with real money, you'll need to add BTC to your account, or participate in one of our future promos!

[TimeTeller]

Is this another thread for Futuur? I think I already saw a thread dedicating on this project.
On the other note, do you think futuristic questions are really attractive to bet?
I don't think many players will bet on an item that will give them answer, 1/2/4 years from now?
We don't even know if you're still up at that time? Because we don't know what the future holds.
But seeing the transactions, it seems a lot are interested on this kind of game.

[futuur]

hi TimeTeller!  Yes, our original thread was moved to the Games and Rounds forum, so we removed the announcement part and posted here.  

Regarding longer-term bets: one thing to note is that you can sell a bet at any time, so if you believe that your longer term prediction is right, and that other people will bet on that outcome as new information becomes available, then you can expect the price to go up.

Prices on Futuur are determined by market activity, similar to a stock exchange.  This means that if other people bet on an outcome you already bet one, its price will rise and you will be able to sell for a profit.  

That said, we also have lots of shorter term markets, and are always open to suggestions for new markets!

Is this another thread for Futuur? I think I already saw a thread dedicating on this project.
On the other note, do you think futuristic questions are really attractive to bet?
I don't think many players will bet on an item that will give them answer, 1/2/4 years from now?
We don't even know if you're still up at that time? Because we don't know what the future holds.
But seeing the transactions, it seems a lot are interested on this kind of game.

[Joel_Jantsen]

Our mission is to help improve decision-making by generating more accurate predictions about the greatest possible range of future events.  We do this by aggregating the “wisdom of the crowd” into a single, easy to understand percentage estimate for the likelihood of that event to occur.

WHAT has that to do anything with gambling? For a moment I thought you're like  Science related research and development company. Nice selling there mate.  Also, it is wrong to say you will predict if that event will occur, for instance, if an asteroid is passing by earth you'd probably take bets on the chances of that asteroid hitting the earth. Which is unpredictable so whatever the crowd bets on you can't estimate anything.

[LimLims]

hi TimeTeller!  Yes, our original thread was moved to the Games and Rounds forum, so we removed the announcement part and posted here.

Did you ever wonder why your previous thread was moved to Games and Rounds sections?
If you think it was done by mistake, you can just simply report your thread to the moderator and asked them to move the thread again to here Gambling section. No need of creating of another thread IMO.
Moreover i thought your thread was moved to Altcoins board as there was no option to bet on Bitcoins, rather we were able to bet with Gam Currency (token) bought through Bitcoins.
So as you have created a thread here? It means you guys are now accepting bets made through BTC?

[harizen]

I like the idea but seeing some top questions on the site, the waiting time period for the result is too long (although that's the subject of the site) and might raise concerns about the security of users bet. Still exploring the game system.

Good luck then in building a reputable site and hope the site admins will do anything to be one of the good sites.

Moreover i thought your thread was moved to Altcoins board as there was no option to bet on Bitcoins, rather we were able to bet with Gam Currency (token) bought through Bitcoins.
So as you have created a thread here? It means you guys are now accepting bets made through BTC?

Looking at posts and image in the main post, bets can be made thru BTC, or with their play money, OOMS.

[acroman08]

hi TimeTeller!  Yes, our original thread was moved to the Games and Rounds forum, so we removed the announcement part and posted here.

Did you ever wonder why your previous thread was moved to Games and Rounds sections?
If you think it was done by mistake, you can just simply report your thread to the moderator and asked them to move the thread again to here Gambling section. No need of creating of another thread IMO.
Moreover i thought your thread was moved to Altcoins board as there was no option to bet on Bitcoins, rather we were able to bet with Gam Currency (token) bought through Bitcoins.
So as you have created a thread here? It means you guys are now accepting bets made through BTC?

on their first thread, they were giving away 1mbtc to 25 bitcointalk users that is why it was moved to games and rounds. and since the thread was moved to games and rounds I don't see the problem if they left the first thread(where they moved the announcement part according to OP) creating their actual ANN thread without the giving away part. and just like what harizen said bets can be made thru BTC and ooms

[slaman29]

I've always kind of wondered what the market is like for this predictions of events, I mean I see them all the time on bookies (even if I don't search for them I see them) but they always have the lowest volumes compared to regular sports.

The idea of selling a bet is interesting though. But how do you get odds in the first place, may I ask?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Have you thought about making predictions for the Stock Market? The page is very different and I like it because they are innovating, it would also be nice if they made short-term predictions of Bitcoin, I am sure it would attract many traders. I put it in my favorites, especially to see the predictions of the Spanish League and the Champions League.

[codegnome]

I've always kind of wondered what the market is like for this predictions of events, I mean I see them all the time on bookies (even if I don't search for them I see them) but they always have the lowest volumes compared to regular sports.

The idea of selling a bet is interesting though. But how do you get odds in the first place, may I ask?

I am also curious how they get statistics or information to determine the odds. you must have certain instruments to be able to estimate such things.
It is a pity that it is called fuutur and not future, but that domain will already be gone or something similar will not be available.

[AmoreJaz]

I've always kind of wondered what the market is like for this predictions of events, I mean I see them all the time on bookies (even if I don't search for them I see them) but they always have the lowest volumes compared to regular sports.

The idea of selling a bet is interesting though. But how do you get odds in the first place, may I ask?

I am also curious how they get statistics or information to determine the odds. you must have certain instruments to be able to estimate such things.
It is a pity that it is called fuutur and not future, but that domain will already be gone or something similar will not be available.

at least they think of their own name here, rather than those other platforms which are using the name of popular ones. their services are quite interesting but maybe they have their stat determinator on their site. but lets wait how they will answer this query...

that may work, selling your bet if in case you can't wait anymore or you have no time to follow thru your bet.

and checking the number of installs right now in google play, about 50k+, not bad for a prediction app. but theyve been in the market since 2018.

[futuur]

Our mission is to help improve decision-making by generating more accurate predictions about the greatest possible range of future events.  We do this by aggregating the “wisdom of the crowd” into a single, easy to understand percentage estimate for the likelihood of that event to occur.

WHAT has that to do anything with gambling? For a moment I thought you're like  Science related research and development company. Nice selling there mate.  Also, it is wrong to say you will predict if that event will occur, for instance, if an asteroid is passing by earth you'd probably take bets on the chances of that asteroid hitting the earth. Which is unpredictable so whatever the crowd bets on you can't estimate anything.

As it turns out, gambling and predicting the future have a lot to do with one another, at least when it comes to prediction markets like Futuur!     

Prediction markets provide an incentive for bettors like you to contribute the information they have regarding an event, and provide a mechanism to aggregate everybody's information into a single probabilistic estimate.

To take your example, let's say that there's an asteroid that seems to be coming in the direction of earth.  We could offer a market for it, and this would provide an incentive for people with information regarding the event (for instance, a student of astrophysics who has been studying this asteroid) to make a bet on the outcome.  As more people do this, the price of that outcome will change, and tend towards its actual chance of occurring. 

There has been a good amount of research done on this, and in general the result is that predictions generated through a prediction market do better, on average, than other methods.

Here's some more references if you're interested:
• wikipedia article on prediction markets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
• blog post announcing the play-money version of Futuur: https://medium.com/futuur/hello-futuur-54c7dc3fd01d

Have you thought about making predictions for the Stock Market? The page is very different and I like it because they are innovating, it would also be nice if they made short-term predictions of Bitcoin, I am sure it would attract many traders. I put it in my favorites, especially to see the predictions of the Spanish League and the Champions League.

Thanks!  Yes, we are looking at adding new markets for stocks, Bitcoin and other shorter-term financial topics. 

I've always kind of wondered what the market is like for this predictions of events, I mean I see them all the time on bookies (even if I don't search for them I see them) but they always have the lowest volumes compared to regular sports.

The idea of selling a bet is interesting though. But how do you get odds in the first place, may I ask?

I am also curious how they get statistics or information to determine the odds. you must have certain instruments to be able to estimate such things.
It is a pity that it is called fuutur and not future, but that domain will already be gone or something similar will not be available.

at least they think of their own name here, rather than those other platforms which are using the name of popular ones. their services are quite interesting but maybe they have their stat determinator on their site. but lets wait how they will answer this query...

that may work, selling your bet if in case you can't wait anymore or you have no time to follow thru your bet.

and checking the number of installs right now in google play, about 50k+, not bad for a prediction app. but theyve been in the market since 2018.

I've always kind of wondered what the market is like for this predictions of events, I mean I see them all the time on bookies (even if I don't search for them I see them) but they always have the lowest volumes compared to regular sports.

The idea of selling a bet is interesting though. But how do you get odds in the first place, may I ask?

The odds are determined entirely by the market.  Similar to a betting exchange like Betfair or Smarkets, but with the difference that we use an Automated Market Maker to ensure that there is always liquidity for all markets (meaning you can always place a trade).

[delfastTions]

Of course, after a large asteroid falls to earth, it will be very difficult to pay the winnings to those who predicted and bet on the asteroid's fall.  But I don’t know, maybe the authors of the project will succeed.  (of course this is a joke).  
The most important forecast that BTT users are interested in is of course the BTC rate in 1/2/4... years.  This is probably the main interest in this forecast.  
But I love that people use these long-term prediction games.  
And yet, how are things going with the forecast for 100 years and inheritance of the winnings ? Microstrategy has recently bought a lot of BTC and claims that it will not touch them for 100 years, so how will they win, or will it all go to waste ?
 

[bitgolden]

I definitely agree that there is a gambling market out there for predicting the future for sure. What is sportsbooks if not predicting the future?

We wager on a football game on who will win that game before the game starts, that is trying to predict the future. All this place does is bringing markets that is not in "sports" books even though sportsbooks moved to bitcoin price predicting and USA elections type of non-sport related stuff already but this place takes it a step further.

I am not here to defend the website itself because I am not in any way connected or affiliated with them, but I can definitely 100% support the idea they built their business on, definitely looks like something people will want. Will this website be the first and best of it? I can't say but the idea itself will definitely get a lot of attention.

[Coin_trader]

What legal license you are holding for operating gambling game since you are using Bitcoin now that has value? Its cool to bet on a long term prediction because of "sell bet" feature that might increase my bet value overtime. I didn't try to bet using BTC currency but is the odds still the same?

Is this a P2P game which winner will split the losers bet? Its fun to bet on the future science event though but are offering an insane prediction like will human will land to Mars on 2024 that's why I ask if its P2P because I'm sure that only few people will bet on Yes.

[bonjouros]

I visited your FAQ page in order to understand how your platform works, I can see that it was started from play money before offering a real money in predicting the market.

I am pretty curious how the predicting will works or how we can win in your platform. Most of the details in FAQ are only details about bitcoin, deposit and withdrawal but I didn't see any useful information on how we can start betting in your platform as I am quite new to this kind of gambling. And lastly is there any way how we can check the fairness of the game?

[alegotardo]

This is a cool site, how has it existed since 2018 and I didn't know it yet?
Impressive the diversity of predictions that goes from sports to Mars, this is magnificent.

I visited the site and started to explore the possibilities, some so far from being realized that I thought: do I have to wait all this time?
Then, going back to bitcointalk I found that I can sell my bet, this is very nice.

Congratulations on the site!