Our mission is to help improve decision-making by generating more accurate predictions about the greatest possible range of future events. We do this by aggregating the “wisdom of the crowd” into a single, easy to understand percentage estimate for the likelihood of that event to occur.
WHAT has that to do anything with gambling? For a moment I thought you're like Science related research and development company. Nice selling there mate.
Also, it is wrong to say you will predict if that event will occur, for instance, if an asteroid is passing by earth you'd probably take bets on the chances of that asteroid hitting the earth. Which is unpredictable so whatever the crowd bets on you can't estimate anything.
As it turns out, gambling and predicting the future have a lot to do with one another, at least when it comes to prediction markets like Futuur!
Prediction markets provide an incentive for bettors like you to contribute the information they have regarding an event, and provide a mechanism to aggregate everybody's information into a single probabilistic estimate.
To take your example, let's say that there's an asteroid that seems to be coming in the direction of earth. We could offer a market for it, and this would provide an incentive for people with information regarding the event (for instance, a student of astrophysics who has been studying this asteroid) to make a bet on the outcome. As more people do this, the price of that outcome will change, and tend towards its actual chance of occurring.
There has been a good amount of research done on this, and in general the result is that predictions generated through a prediction market do better, on average, than other methods.
Here's some more references if you're interested:
• wikipedia article on prediction markets:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market• blog post announcing the play-money version of Futuur:
https://medium.com/futuur/hello-futuur-54c7dc3fd01dHave you thought about making predictions for the Stock Market? The page is very different and I like it because they are innovating, it would also be nice if they made short-term predictions of Bitcoin, I am sure it would attract many traders. I put it in my favorites, especially to see the predictions of the Spanish League and the Champions League.
Thanks! Yes, we are looking at adding new markets for stocks, Bitcoin and other shorter-term financial topics.
I've always kind of wondered what the market is like for this predictions of events, I mean I see them all the time on bookies (even if I don't search for them I see them) but they always have the lowest volumes compared to regular sports.
The idea of selling a bet is interesting though. But how do you get odds in the first place, may I ask?
I am also curious how they get statistics or information to determine the odds. you must have certain instruments to be able to estimate such things.
It is a pity that it is called fuutur and not future, but that domain will already be gone or something similar will not be available.
at least they think of their own name here, rather than those other platforms which are using the name of popular ones. their services are quite interesting but maybe they have their stat determinator on their site. but lets wait how they will answer this query...
that may work, selling your bet if in case you can't wait anymore or you have no time to follow thru your bet.
and checking the number of installs right now in google play, about 50k+, not bad for a prediction app. but theyve been in the market since 2018.
I've always kind of wondered what the market is like for this predictions of events, I mean I see them all the time on bookies (even if I don't search for them I see them) but they always have the lowest volumes compared to regular sports.
The idea of selling a bet is interesting though. But how do you get odds in the first place, may I ask?
The odds are determined entirely by the market. Similar to a betting exchange like Betfair or Smarkets, but with the difference that we use an Automated Market Maker to ensure that there is always liquidity for all markets (meaning you can always place a trade).
