2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers

[CLS63]

The biggest reason that Turkish people have gotten disappointed is that Turkey fell back to the 3rd place even though they started the group games with the Netherlands and Norway victories. The things that ended Senol Gunes' work here were that Turkey lost points home against the teams, Latvia and Montenegro that are not even at the level of Turkey and Turkey were the worst team in the Euro 2020.

[Juggy777]

Well Turkey has been playing really bad in the EUROs and the WCQ currently.Before the EURO started Turkey played probobly the best football and i really had high hopes for them to make a good result in the EUROs.Something happened there and the change of the coach needed to happen.Hopefully they start playing better now.

It took some times to see that happening at the end eventually.. Hopefully such change might make the team play better tactically

The fact that he can still replicate his form at 34years old is something most top players don’t do. I think Meesi will score more goals this coming two seasons because he will not have to worry more about progressing the ball like he was doing in Barcelona where he had to do everything.

With Mbappe, Neymar and the others, it will be a challenge who will score more there.
There is no doubt that Messi is still fit and if there is something that changed in PSG is the fact that he can count on his teammates way more than in Barca

@snipe Messi role will either be a target man to stay in the penalty box and just score, or he’ll be asked to make those passes for Neymar and Mbappe and either way I don’t expect many goals from him. Also Turkey needs to introspect how they failed to perform, and rework their strategies for their upcoming matches.

[bryant.coleman]

The biggest reason that Turkish people have gotten disappointed is that Turkey fell back to the 3rd place even though they started the group games with the Netherlands and Norway victories. The things that ended Senol Gunes' work here were that Turkey lost points home against the teams, Latvia and Montenegro that are not even at the level of Turkey and Turkey were the worst team in the Euro 2020.

There will be ups and downs. Turkish fans were praising Şenol Güneş when their team defeated the Netherlands by such a big margin. But then the form dipped and they had a horrible outing at Euro 2021 (lost all the group stage matches). The same fans who were praising Güneş earlier were showering abuses on him. And I don't think that Stefan Kuntz will be able to change everything overnight (as far as I know, it is still not confirmed that he'll be the replacement). Anyway, the priority for Turkey should be to defeat Norway next month.

[KTChampions]

Yes, first of all, I consider options that allow a team to get to the championship without looking at the results of other teams, and in this situation it is difficult for me to say which of the 10 teams that took second places will be better. As for Norway, in order to "protect" at least the second place, they must beat Turkey, and this task seems to me quite solvable, especially considering that Turkey is at the bottom both in terms of results and in terms of play.

The last time when Norway played against Turkey (27th March 2021), the latter thrashed the former by a margin of 3-0. And this was a home match for Norway (although played in Malaga since travel ban was in place within Norway). And on 8th October, the two teams will be facing each other once more, and this time the match will be played in Turkey (Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, Istanbul). I am expecting Turkey to win this match, which would see them getting elevated to the second spot. Now whether they can qualify for the world cup or not is difficult to say at this point.

Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.

[Sithara007]

Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.

I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.

[KTChampions]

Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.

I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.

This is really amazing considering what we've discussed above. Perhaps it makes sense now to bet on Turkey while the odds on it are high (since it is considered an underdog), but closer to the match, if the odds change, place a bet on Norway and get a guaranteed win? Well, or do nothing at all and hope for a victory for Turkey by placing a bet on it.

[mv1986]

Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.

I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.

This is really amazing considering what we've discussed above. Perhaps it makes sense now to bet on Turkey while the odds on it are high (since it is considered an underdog), but closer to the match, if the odds change, place a bet on Norway and get a guaranteed win? Well, or do nothing at all and hope for a victory for Turkey by placing a bet on it.

I really believe that most of the revised odds is going back to the fact that Haaland is in outstanding shape. They expect him to be one of the superstars of that tournament even though he might not make it close to the finals because the rest of the team isn't good enough, but group stage is doable for them. 8th October is the most important day for Norway during these qualifiers. It is going to be tough to play that game away in a Turkish stadium. That's going to be a hell of a game as both teams know what's on the line. Probably even worse watching it.

[Silberman]

Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.

I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.

We must remember that the odds of the matches not only follow the probabilities of a certain team beating the other but also depend heavily on the people taking the bets, it seems that people really trust that Norway will beat Turkey and the sportsbooks have decreased the odds given to Norway to create an incentive for other gamblers to bet on Turkey and balance their books, so this seems like a perfect opportunity to get a value bet on Turkey if you ask me.

[Sithara007]

I really believe that most of the revised odds is going back to the fact that Haaland is in outstanding shape. They expect him to be one of the superstars of that tournament even though he might not make it close to the finals because the rest of the team isn't good enough, but group stage is doable for them. 8th October is the most important day for Norway during these qualifiers. It is going to be tough to play that game away in a Turkish stadium. That's going to be a hell of a game as both teams know what's on the line. Probably even worse watching it.

Teams that are overdependent on one player are not doing good recently (take the case of teams such as Portugal and Belgium in Euro 2021 as an example). It is difficult to make a choice between Norway and Turkey at this point. The odds look attractive for Turkey and naturally many of us would prefer placing a bet on them. The match is being played in Istanbul as well. But after that horrible 1-6 defeat to Netherlands, I simply don't have enough courage to make a bet for them. I am not sure whether they will recover from that defeat anytime soon.

[KTChampions]

We must remember that the odds of the matches not only follow the probabilities of a certain team beating the other but also depend heavily on the people taking the bets, it seems that people really trust that Norway will beat Turkey and the sportsbooks have decreased the odds given to Norway to create an incentive for other gamblers to bet on Turkey and balance their books, so this seems like a perfect opportunity to get a value bet on Turkey if you ask me.

I thought about it too, and I immediately remembered a recent case of such distorted odds - in the Pacquiao-Spence match (which was unfortunately canceled and Pacquiao lost to another weaker opponent), the bets on Spence's win were very attractive (although he was an obvious favorite) due to for the fact that many Pacquiao fans were betting on Pacquiao and the bookmakers were forced to take this into account.

[mv1986]

I really believe that most of the revised odds is going back to the fact that Haaland is in outstanding shape. They expect him to be one of the superstars of that tournament even though he might not make it close to the finals because the rest of the team isn't good enough, but group stage is doable for them. 8th October is the most important day for Norway during these qualifiers. It is going to be tough to play that game away in a Turkish stadium. That's going to be a hell of a game as both teams know what's on the line. Probably even worse watching it.

Teams that are overdependent on one player are not doing good recently (take the case of teams such as Portugal and Belgium in Euro 2021 as an example). It is difficult to make a choice between Norway and Turkey at this point. The odds look attractive for Turkey and naturally many of us would prefer placing a bet on them. The match is being played in Istanbul as well. But after that horrible 1-6 defeat to Netherlands, I simply don't have enough courage to make a bet for them. I am not sure whether they will recover from that defeat anytime soon.

Ugh, I am not so sure if I would agree with you that Portugal and Belgium are good examples for teams that are dependent on single players. Portugal had some very high profile players with them besides Ronaldo and I guess for Belgium you refer to De Bruyne? Belgium also has a pretty strong team on almost every single position.

I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!

[jostorres]

Teams that are overdependent on one player are not doing good recently (take the case of teams such as Portugal and Belgium in Euro 2021 as an example). It is difficult to make a choice between Norway and Turkey at this point. The odds look attractive for Turkey and naturally many of us would prefer placing a bet on them. The match is being played in Istanbul as well. But after that horrible 1-6 defeat to Netherlands, I simply don't have enough courage to make a bet for them. I am not sure whether they will recover from that defeat anytime soon.

I would assume that it is not because Turkey might be good, or might be bad but more about how well will Norway play? It is obvious that Turkey did not play well, they were overachieving for a while, during euro qualifiers and then first half of this world cup qualifiers as well, but since the euro 2021 itself, Turkey has been nothing but just disappointing. So, normally I would say easily Norway, but do we really feel like Norway will be good too? Sure Haaland is great and all but that's about it, that's all we have to go with. So, I am assuming this game will be an underwhelming game to watch.

In any case Turkey has a new manager after such a horrible stint from the previous one, I am assuming the new one may want to start with a big bang and that could result with some changes both on the roster and also on the playstyle as well. This could be a good start for them.

[Sithara007]

Ugh, I am not so sure if I would agree with you that Portugal and Belgium are good examples for teams that are dependent on single players. Portugal had some very high profile players with them besides Ronaldo and I guess for Belgium you refer to De Bruyne? Belgium also has a pretty strong team on almost every single position.

I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!

For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).

[mv1986]

Ugh, I am not so sure if I would agree with you that Portugal and Belgium are good examples for teams that are dependent on single players. Portugal had some very high profile players with them besides Ronaldo and I guess for Belgium you refer to De Bruyne? Belgium also has a pretty strong team on almost every single position.

I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!

For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).

Exactly, but as we have seen during the European Championship final when Portugal won it, they won it without Ronaldo as he had to leave the pitch after an early injury. They compensated for him quite well even though every team in the world is dependent on such players like Ronaldo. As you said that is different with Haaland. If he had to leave very early during an important game, Norway would be significantly weakened to a degree where it is doubtful that the rest of the team could compensate for Haaland the same way Portugal can compensate for Ronaldo.

[babygun]

For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).

The problem is that Belgium also relies on their top players such as Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. You could see that in their match against Denmark on the EURO 2020 cup. The first half Belgium couldn't create any chance; at mid-time De Bruyne comes in and we saw a totally different Belgium.

[uneng]

For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).

The problem is that Belgium also relies on their top players such as Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. You could see that in their match against Denmark on the EURO 2020 cup. The first half Belgium couldn't create any chance; at mid-time De Bruyne comes in and we saw a totally different Belgium.

That is not too bad... There are teams which rely on just one top player, at least they have three, right? Besides the players you mentioned Belgium has a pretty balanced team with a very good goalkeeper which can offer a decent challenge even to the considered strongest teams. They just need to shape their strategy a little more and maybe stop being too technical and turn into a more creative gameplay to surprise tough adversaries like Italy on the field.

[babygun]

That is not too bad... There are teams which rely on just one top player, at least they have three, right? Besides the players you mentioned Belgium has a pretty balanced team with a very good goalkeeper which can offer a decent challenge even to the considered strongest teams. They just need to shape their strategy a little more and maybe stop being too technical and turn into a more creative gameplay to surprise tough adversaries like Italy on the field.

It is good that they have a couple of top players with one of the best goalies (Courtois) in the world, but I think that the defense is the weakest point in Belgium. They score very easily a goal, but also get a lot of goals against them, even with Courtois. But you are also right, sometimes they try to be a little bit too technical.

[Sithara007]

That is not too bad... There are teams which rely on just one top player, at least they have three, right? Besides the players you mentioned Belgium has a pretty balanced team with a very good goalkeeper which can offer a decent challenge even to the considered strongest teams. They just need to shape their strategy a little more and maybe stop being too technical and turn into a more creative gameplay to surprise tough adversaries like Italy on the field.

Nothing bad as such. But the problem is that it makes easier for the opposition to devise strategies against them. If the entire team is dependent on just one player, then the other team can ask 2-3 defenders to make sure that he never gets anyway near the ball. And this can impact the prospects of teams like Norway. Anyway, it is just my personal opinion, and doesn't have to be true all the time. If that was the case, then such teams would be losing matches all the time. But Norway has been doing well in Group G.

[KTChampions]

It is good that they have a couple of top players with one of the best goalies (Courtois) in the world, but I think that the defense is the weakest point in Belgium. They score very easily a goal, but also get a lot of goals against them, even with Courtois. But you are also right, sometimes they try to be a little bit too technical.

I don't think defense is a weak element for the Belgian national team - at the moment they have the fewest goals conceded in their qualifying group. I don't think that 4 conceded goals is a lot in 6 games, especially if you remember that they scored 21. The only match where they conceded a goal and lost points was an away match against the Czech Republic (1-1) which is a very strong opponent.

[Silberman]

We must remember that the odds of the matches not only follow the probabilities of a certain team beating the other but also depend heavily on the people taking the bets, it seems that people really trust that Norway will beat Turkey and the sportsbooks have decreased the odds given to Norway to create an incentive for other gamblers to bet on Turkey and balance their books, so this seems like a perfect opportunity to get a value bet on Turkey if you ask me.

I thought about it too, and I immediately remembered a recent case of such distorted odds - in the Pacquiao-Spence match (which was unfortunately canceled and Pacquiao lost to another weaker opponent), the bets on Spence's win were very attractive (although he was an obvious favorite) due to for the fact that many Pacquiao fans were betting on Pacquiao and the bookmakers were forced to take this into account.

This happens a lot when it comes to sports betting, the casinos thanks to the algorithms that they have and the simulations that they make in order to predict outcomes have the closest thing to the real probabilities that we can expect, however all of that goes out of the window the moment people begin to actually put their bets, we know that a lot of people like to play it safe and they always go with the favorite, and even if it was obvious that Pacquiao was not on his best shape we know that he has produced profits for safe bettors for years, so they just put a bet on him but this time around he finally failed to meet the expectations, so something similar could be at stake here.