Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[LTU_btc]

If you don't care about achieving any strategical goals or territory gains, or pulling reserves away from Pokrovsk leading to Russia taking that strategically important city and opening the rest of Donbas to Russia, or loosing elite Ukrainian units to North Korean fighters, and only care about PR political points for your speeches in EU then sure guess, in that case, it might be considered that it went well  

Your statement implies that now it no longer matters to keep the Russians busy? What changed, or just acceptance of inevitability?

So, destroying Russian oil factories and cutting off Crimea is just PR stunt which has no real impact? Ok...

About that pole, only 8 days after i posted this British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign on Monday and outline a timetable for his departure looks like Startmer is the first to fall this Monday, who'll be next Macron or Merz? It's a total mystery why EU people don't support their leaders, first Biden, now Starmer ... 

Not sure how resigning of Brittish PM is related to Macron, Merz or even Biden. If you haven't noticed, change of Brittish PM is another day at the office, considering how many changed in recent years and it mostly related to internal affairs

[DaRude]

If you don't care about achieving any strategical goals or territory gains, or pulling reserves away from Pokrovsk leading to Russia taking that strategically important city and opening the rest of Donbas to Russia, or loosing elite Ukrainian units to North Korean fighters, and only care about PR political points for your speeches in EU then sure guess, in that case, it might be considered that it went well  

Your statement implies that now it no longer matters to keep the Russians busy? What changed, or just acceptance of inevitability?

So, destroying Russian oil factories and cutting off Crimea is just PR stunt which has no real impact? Ok...

About that pole, only 8 days after i posted this British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign on Monday and outline a timetable for his departure looks like Startmer is the first to fall this Monday, who'll be next Macron or Merz? It's a total mystery why EU people don't support their leaders, first Biden, now Starmer ...  

Not sure how resigning of Brittish PM is related to Macron, Merz or even Biden. If you haven't noticed, change of Brittish PM is another day at the office, considering how many changed in recent years and it mostly related to internal affairs

As everyone knows, Russia has huge surplus of oil and processed oil based products, which it exports. So hitting those Russian oil refineries hits Russia financially and lowers supply of refined petroleum products on the market, meaning higher costs at the pump in Europe. Ultimately it hits both sides financially. Now, the real question here is who does it hurt more. Crimea is not "cut off", there's no shortages of food or anything else there besides petrol products. It appears to be a stunt to force Russia to reroute oil deliveries to Crimea over Kerch Bridge (Russia stopped doing that after last attack) for the purpose of attacking that bridge once again. EU is trying so hard to paint Putin as this illogical, irrational, madman, that they themselves started to believe it, and are paying for that. Russia didn't succumb to pressure and didn't pull troops from Pokrovsk to sent them to Kursk, and so far, the Kerch bridge stands.

"mostly related to internal affairs" you funny, right right, of course how could i forget that nothing that happens in EU could be related to Ukraine. Should we all just act surprised when ultra rights come to power in EU, its kinda hard to deny them leading in polls everywhere. Perhaps it'd be easier to convince everyone that it's just a coincidence and totally not related to EU sending billions to Ukraine instead of their own schools, infrastructure, making its manufacturing competitive, or preferring expensive "freedom" gas from US instead of cheap pipeline gas?

And for the record, how would things look if it was related to external affairs? That is, how else can Europeans show their disapproval at sending billions to Ukraine and refusing cheap Russian resources?

[LTU_btc]

As everyone knows, Russia has huge surplus of oil and processed oil based products, which it exports. So hitting those Russian oil refineries hits Russia financially and lowers supply of refined petroleum products on the market, meaning higher costs at the pump in Europe. Ultimately it hits both sides financially. Now, the real question here is who does it hurt more. Crimea is not "cut off", there's no shortages of food or anything else there besides petrol products. It appears to be a stunt to force Russia to reroute oil deliveries to Crimea over Kerch Bridge (Russia stopped doing that after last attack) for the purpose of attacking that bridge once again. EU is trying so hard to paint Putin as this illogical, irrational, madman, that they themselves started to believe it, and are paying for that. Russia didn't succumb to pressure and didn't pull troops from Pokrovsk to sent them to Kursk, and so far, the Kerch bridge stands.

"mostly related to internal affairs" you funny, right right, of course how could i forget that nothing that happens in EU could be related to Ukraine. Should we all just act surprised when ultra rights come to power in EU, its kinda hard to deny them leading in polls everywhere. Perhaps it'd be easier to convince everyone that it's just a coincidence and totally not related to EU sending billions to Ukraine instead of their own schools, infrastructure, making its manufacturing competitive, or preferring expensive "freedom" gas from US instead of cheap pipeline gas?

And for the record, how would things look if it was related to external affairs? That is, how else can Europeans show their disapproval at sending billions to Ukraine and refusing cheap Russian resources?

I doubt that Ukraine has task to make shortage of food or anything else in Crimea. While lack of petrol is something what affects daily life very significant and also makes supply to frontline more complicated. BTW, big part of Crimea also faced blackout of electricity:
https://www.ft.com/content/7107a1c1-8025-4237-947f-40fa39c9d2fe?syn-25a6b1a6=1
These strikes aren't going to affect Europe because % of petrol based products that Europe is buying from Russia is so insignificant that it can't have impact. Only thing that EU is buying from Russia is is LNG.
Yeah, PM's is changing often in UK, but which one resigned because of Ukraine question? Johnson resigned after domestic scandal, Sunak lost elections, Starmer was changed because of economics in UK and affairs in their own party. But as you see, despite all these changes their stance on Ukraine question doesn't changes, unlike in some other countries like Slovakia or Bulgaria.

[montaga]

Russia now use Soviet 7.62x54mmR ammo made in 1987 cold War.
Missile Depot in Crimea hit

Russia has no legal claim to Crimea. At first the Scythians - Greek -  Crimean Tatars - Ottoman Empire then the Russian empire conquered it in 1783
In Soviet era the peninsular transferred from Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR on fully legal grounds.
After the collapse of the USSR, both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin repeatedly signed documents recognizing Crimea as part of Ukraine.
Putin would have got away with it only taking Crimea, just like Hitler with Sudetenland, but greed is a bitch.

700 cars line up to exit Crimea by ferry, most will end up walking across Kerch bridge or other, no other way possible.

[DaRude]

As everyone knows, Russia has huge surplus of oil and processed oil based products, which it exports. So hitting those Russian oil refineries hits Russia financially and lowers supply of refined petroleum products on the market, meaning higher costs at the pump in Europe. Ultimately it hits both sides financially. Now, the real question here is who does it hurt more. Crimea is not "cut off", there's no shortages of food or anything else there besides petrol products. It appears to be a stunt to force Russia to reroute oil deliveries to Crimea over Kerch Bridge (Russia stopped doing that after last attack) for the purpose of attacking that bridge once again. EU is trying so hard to paint Putin as this illogical, irrational, madman, that they themselves started to believe it, and are paying for that. Russia didn't succumb to pressure and didn't pull troops from Pokrovsk to sent them to Kursk, and so far, the Kerch bridge stands.

"mostly related to internal affairs" you funny, right right, of course how could i forget that nothing that happens in EU could be related to Ukraine. Should we all just act surprised when ultra rights come to power in EU, its kinda hard to deny them leading in polls everywhere. Perhaps it'd be easier to convince everyone that it's just a coincidence and totally not related to EU sending billions to Ukraine instead of their own schools, infrastructure, making its manufacturing competitive, or preferring expensive "freedom" gas from US instead of cheap pipeline gas?

And for the record, how would things look if it was related to external affairs? That is, how else can Europeans show their disapproval at sending billions to Ukraine and refusing cheap Russian resources?

I doubt that Ukraine has task to make shortage of food or anything else in Crimea. While lack of petrol is something what affects daily life very significant and also makes supply to frontline more complicated. BTW, big part of Crimea also faced blackout of electricity:
https://www.ft.com/content/7107a1c1-8025-4237-947f-40fa39c9d2fe?syn-25a6b1a6=1
These strikes aren't going to affect Europe because % of petrol based products that Europe is buying from Russia is so insignificant that it can't have impact. Only thing that EU is buying from Russia is is LNG.
Yeah, PM's is changing often in UK, but which one resigned because of Ukraine question? Johnson resigned after domestic scandal, Sunak lost elections, Starmer was changed because of economics in UK and affairs in their own party. But as you see, despite all these changes their stance on Ukraine question doesn't changes, unlike in some other countries like Slovakia or Bulgaria.

Trump is doing it to Cuba, Israel to Gaza, so don't see why others can't follow. Think you just have to call it a "side effect" instead of a targeted "task".

As been covered many times, fuel is a commodity, so it's mainly driven by supply and demand. Long term rerouting commodities via sub optimal routes, just adds inefficiencies and transfer costs for said commodity to your end consumers.

You didn't answer how EU citizens can show their disapproval, so let me try to answer. EU bundled the Ukrainian question with being ultra right. So either you support sending billions to Ukraine instead of spending it domestically and support refusing cheap Russian resources, or you have to vote for ultra right! In the hopes that everyone that's displeased with Ukraine still wouldn't cross the line into ultra rights. Well, about that, lets see how it's turning out:

The center-left U.K. leader has suffered the most dramatic plunge in popularity of any prime minister in British history. Since winning a landslide victory just under two years ago, Starmer has seen his Labour Party fall to historic lows in opinion polls, while the nationalist right-wing Reform U.K. of Nigel Farage has stormed into the lead in polls and local elections, mirroring the success of insurgent populists across Europe.

Latest polls show Reform UK: 27% (+3 from 25-26 May) {far-right / radical right}; Conservatives: 18% (-1) {centre-right} Labour: 18% (+1) {Starmer/centre-left}
We either look at the numbers and see that people just do not support the Labour party, and this is a just a sad attempt by Labour to find a scapegoat for their failed policies so they're just reshuffling and putting in a new PM (for next few months) to draw attention away from the fact that their whole party is 9 points behind radical right Reform UK, or it's just normal yearly PM changes completely unrelated to the whole party loosing support. Everyone can choose what they wish to believe in.

Can't wait to hear your version of the story how same thing happening in Germany where Far-right AfD leads Merz bloc by record nine points must just totally be a coincidence, right? Surely you can find some local justification for it too?

But then i'll ask about France where A new poll shows far-right leader Jordan Bardella of the National Rally is on course to win the French presidency in 2027   So ultra rights are coming to power across EU but i'm sure you have good justifications and plausible deniability for how it's totally all just a coincidence and completely not related to starting a war of attrition with Russia and sending billions to Ukraine, right?

[Lucius]

The Ukrainian flag is flying over Kinburn Spit.

For the first time since Russian forces seized it — Ukrainian colours are raised on the cape that guards the mouth of the Dnipro-Buh estuary, one of the most strategically significant points on Ukraine's Black Sea coast.

What happened: a powerful fire strike by Ukraine's Southern Defence Forces forced Russian troops to abandon their positions. Surviving Russian personnel are being evacuated. The occupiers are leaving their defensive lines.

This is not a small piece of land.

Kinburn Spit is the narrow strip of territory that controls access between the Black Sea and the Dnipro River delta. Russia held it as a staging point, a fire position, and a symbol that the south remained contested.

Today it is flying a Ukrainian flag.

The week that began with the Crimea bridge network being systematically dismantled, continued with Moscow's refinery halting operations, the semiconductor factory in Voronezh destroyed, space communications centres struck in Moscow and Vladimir regions, 1,200km strikes on Orenburg — ends with a Ukrainian flag on Kinburn Spit.

Russia came to stay.

It is leaving.

Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

Source: Regional Directorate of the Southern Territorial Defence, June 25, 2026

https://x.com/armyinformcomua/status/2070095615971721239

~snip~
700 cars line up to exit Crimea by ferry, most will end up walking across Kerch bridge or other, no other way possible.

How stupid do you have to be to go on vacation in a war zone? This is yet another proof of how brainwashed people are, because I see those Russian girls crying because they don't know what the hell is going on - because they came to spend the summer in Crimea, and there are explosions and smoke there.

Now they are returning home, without a car of course - a great vacation.

[DaRude]

The Ukrainian flag is flying over Kinburn Spit.

For the first time since Russian forces seized it — Ukrainian colours are raised on the cape that guards the mouth of the Dnipro-Buh estuary, one of the most strategically significant points on Ukraine's Black Sea coast.

What happened: a powerful fire strike by Ukraine's Southern Defence Forces forced Russian troops to abandon their positions. Surviving Russian personnel are being evacuated. The occupiers are leaving their defensive lines.

This is not a small piece of land.

Kinburn Spit is the narrow strip of territory that controls access between the Black Sea and the Dnipro River delta. Russia held it as a staging point, a fire position, and a symbol that the south remained contested.

Today it is flying a Ukrainian flag.

The week that began with the Crimea bridge network being systematically dismantled, continued with Moscow's refinery halting operations, the semiconductor factory in Voronezh destroyed, space communications centres struck in Moscow and Vladimir regions, 1,200km strikes on Orenburg — ends with a Ukrainian flag on Kinburn Spit.

Russia came to stay.

It is leaving.

Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

Source: Regional Directorate of the Southern Territorial Defence, June 25, 2026

https://x.com/armyinformcomua/status/2070095615971721239

~snip~
700 cars line up to exit Crimea by ferry, most will end up walking across Kerch bridge or other, no other way possible.

How stupid do you have to be to go on vacation in a war zone? This is yet another proof of how brainwashed people are, because I see those Russian girls crying because they don't know what the hell is going on - because they came to spend the summer in Crimea, and there are explosions and smoke there.

Now they are returning home, without a car of course - a great vacation.

You do realize that montaga is our local UA troll that just posts AI generated content and fake AI images, right?

[montaga]

Dont worry Chinese will come to Russia, spare places available
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/2070168693418709452/video/1 https://x.com/MeanwhileInUA/status/2070295312493588511/video/1

Belarus stops transmitters
Moldova again in talks about rejoining with Romania, would also settle the Transnistira issue.
Another coup rumor, ex service men may turn the weapon the other way.
Putin propaganda mistress claims Ukraine wants to ruin the summer vacation, nothing more.
Netherlands to produce 700 Ruta Block 2 cruise missiles for Ukraine
Ukraine making now 3 FP-5 Flamingos daily and 300 FP-1/2s drones
Ukrainians now in  Kinburn Spit

Oil refinery in Antipinsk, near Tyumen hit, 2150 km from Kharkiv
The Mayak plant also known as Chelyabinsk-40 and Chelyabinsk-65 in Oziorsk where Russia is enriching uranium is only 1800 km from Kharkiv.......
Best yet to come

[BADecker]

^^^ Of course Russia knows all that stuff, which of it is true, and which of it is important.

Has Ukraine started rebuilding Kiev, yet? If they want peace, why do they keep fighting?

They couldn't hold the Black Sea Corridor. Once they take it back, will there be any of them left to live there? Or will they hand it  over to France, Germany, and the UK?... 'cause they're all dead?

Maybe they could make a Disneyland there, and cook up something in those US bio-labs to give the customers the HIGH of their life.





P.S. Russia broke through Kharkiv.
Britain is going crazy from their elite solders being killed.
Mopping up the last of Zaporizhzhia.
Youtube vloggers running out of parts of Ukraine not taken down. Gotta go help Belarus I guess.

[BADecker]

The West is trying to sneak nukes into Ukraine. So far Russia is stopping them.


A Radiation Hazard was announced in KIEV: Russia destroyed British Components for Nuclear Weapons

[montaga]

Once again Russia will fall from within
https://x.com/ShaunPinnerUA/status/2070552546171633791/video/1

To get fuel in Crimea is easy as long as you have shekels.

[hostm]

Konstantinovka has been taken. Only 1,000 Russian army soldiers were involved in the city's capture. The rest was accomplished by drones, missiles, and glide bombs.

[Lucius]

Konstantinovka has been taken. Only 1,000 Russian army soldiers were involved in the city's capture. The rest was accomplished by drones, missiles, and glide bombs.

What a success - how long did it take you to conquer one village, two years? And no, you haven't conquered it yet, and a lot more Russians will have to die for that to happen. Maybe you will get the chance to participate in the war you support, because there are rumors that a large mobilization of people in Russia will start in the fall.

On Thursday, Russian forces displayed several flags in the city. Nevertheless, the Russian Telegram channel claimed that “the complete ‘liberation’ of Kostiantynivka is still a long way off.”

On its map, all the locations where Russian troops raised a flag are marked. All of them are in the south-western part of the city

[hostm]

the war you support

The war is not supported by me or Russia. The first war the West started with Russia was not in Ukraine. It was in Chechnya. At the same time the West destroyed Russia's allies in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The second war that the West unleashed against Russia was in Georgia. But both were small and weak. And Russia easily won both wars.

So Ukraine turned out to be the ideal choice for a war with Russia. But I'm sure this war, too, will end soon. And not in Donbas, but on the border with Poland and Romania. It will likely take a few more years. But Russia has no other choice. In the worst case, nuclear weapons will be used, not against Ukraine, but against Europe. To completely destroy the military industry they're now hastily organizing there.

[BADecker]

the war you support

The war is not supported by me or Russia. The first war the West started with Russia was not in Ukraine. It was in Chechnya. At the same time the West destroyed Russia's allies in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The second war that the West unleashed against Russia was in Georgia. But both were small and weak. And Russia easily won both wars.

So Ukraine turned out to be the ideal choice for a war with Russia. But I'm sure this war, too, will end soon. And not in Donbas, but on the border with Poland and Romania. It will likely take a few more years. But Russia has no other choice. In the worst case, nuclear weapons will be used, not against Ukraine, but against Europe. To completely destroy the military industry they're now hastily organizing there.

It's the West's banking system. It's a debt system. Look at the dollar bill. Says right at the top, "Federal Reserve Note." "Note" means debt instrument.

The western banking system has taken over the whole West through taxation and inflation. The BRIKS people tried to adapt the BRIKS money system to the debt banking, but they failed. And the BRIKS countries are watching Russia to see if they should "go West" or not. Meanwhile the people suffer.

Putin is saving the world from debt-banking corruption. He might not know he is doing it. Hope he wins, because we don't want any more taxation or inflation in the US. And hope his successor is even wiser. If the banking system fails here, we will be stronger than ever, even way stronger than, Russia.

[montaga]

No worry needed the new money system is worked on, the necessary meetings have and do take place. The question is, Are you of value?
The criminal enterprise on the worlds fringes have nothing to do with it, other than eventually use it.

Only the high delusional Muscovide will claim Europe has anything to do with the two Chechnya wars, it is a product of the the USSR virus.

Since czar Putin's rule:
40.6 million Russians born
52.1 million Russians dead
Who needs nato when you do so a fantastic job, of eliminating people with a population the size of Belgium.

[BADecker]

~

Since czar Putin's rule:
40.6 million Russians born
52.1 million Russians dead
Who needs nato when you do so a fantastic job, of eliminating people with a population the size of Belgium.

Who needs NATO? NATO did it, the population reduction of Russia, I mean. They killed off some of Putin's workforce. Putin should probably be punished for letting it happen. Finally he is doing something about it.

Looks like NATO is becoming so bold that they are declaring war. Putin keeps holding off, still trying to make peace. He knows how ugly war is. All he wants to do is fair trade.

Consider what war could be like. That Russian warship firing on a yacht in the English Channel. That's not a threat. It's a warning. Europe is essentially dead from Russian nukes.

[DaRude]

Konstantinovka has been taken. Only 1,000 Russian army soldiers were involved in the city's capture. The rest was accomplished by drones, missiles, and glide bombs.

What a success - how long did it take you to conquer one village, two years? And no, you haven't conquered it yet, and a lot more Russians will have to die for that to happen. Maybe you will get the chance to participate in the war you support, because there are rumors that a large mobilization of people in Russia will start in the fall.

On Thursday, Russian forces displayed several flags in the city. Nevertheless, the Russian Telegram channel claimed that “the complete ‘liberation’ of Kostiantynivka is still a long way off.”

On its map, all the locations where Russian troops raised a flag are marked. All of them are in the south-western part of the city

4 years into the war, the West spent over half a trillion on Ukraine, (at the minimum) hundreds of thousands in Ukrainian casualties, and Ukraine is still retreating. And that's all with full mobilization in Ukraine and no mobilization in Russia. I just don't understand why would anyone cheer for a "large mobilization of people in Russia will start in the fall.". If Ukraine can't even hold a village under current conditions, we can all imagine what will happen to Ukraine if Russia does do a large mobilization. You really do want this to go to the last Ukrainian, don't you? I guess if you're in EU, disregarding Ukrainian losses only to make Russia pay a bit more, unfortunately kinda does make sense  

[tvbcof]

4 years into the war, the West spent over half a trillion on Ukraine, (at the minimum) hundreds of thousands in Ukrainian casualties, and Ukraine is still retreating. And that's all with full mobilization in Ukraine and no mobilization in Russia. I just don't understand why would anyone cheer for a "large mobilization of people in Russia will start in the fall.". If Ukraine can't even hold a village under current conditions, we can all imagine what will happen to Ukraine if Russia does do a large mobilization. You really do want this to go to the last Ukrainian, don't you? I guess if you're in EU, disregarding Ukrainian losses only to make Russia pay a bit more, unfortunately kinda does make sense  

That's what I noticed early on and it shaped my hypotheses about what is going on there.

Seems like the West was really focused initially on burning up Ukroid meat and for a while it was, by seemingly realistic estimates, running around 10/1 in Russian favor.  Later it shifted.  I put a lot of confidence in Ritter's assessments here, and as of his latest trip to Russia he is reporting that it's now running closer to 2~3/1 and is quite brutal.  I guess that the West had a change of plans when Russia didn't fold and now they are trying to milk what they can get out of the surviving millitary-aged Ukroid population that they can get to fight in the hopes of weakening Russian to the meager degree possible.

[BADecker]

^^^ But will Russia REALLY go as far as taking out some cities in the UK and Germany and France. If that happens, or is allowed to happen, the whole operation might turn out to be something different than we think.

Is the EU really in control of what the EU does?