2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[Cryptomultiplier]

Oscars are rarely unexpected, people know who will get it.

People really don't know until the results is announced. So far I have seen, the idea of who will win what is almost an easy guess and betting on this, is one sure way to cash out, but not with a big margin however
 I would suggest making two different bets for uncertainty sake.

[1714814925]

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[molsewid]

Oscars are not really a wagering thing if you ask me, maybe I am wrong but isn't it basically decided already. Like unless something shocking happens, the fabelsmans should win it, spielberg should get the director and Cate Blanchett for the female and Brandon Fraser for the male. Those four categories are basically locked already and nobody is expecting anything else. Could it be ever possible to get shocked with some different result?

Well, of course and it has happened before but it's very rare and only with one of them. So, you could definitely gamble on these four, and will come out in profit unless something very unexpected happens. Oscars are rarely unexpected, people know who will get it.

I agree with you, I always believe that in this kind of events there will be some leakage happening or they can easily turn someone as Supporting Actor or Actress, it is more easier to bet in this kind of thing rather than in sports or some events. And I am not used to this nor want this kind of betting maybe it is not my thing but is not fun at all given that there's some rumors that can be seen online came from different sources maybe some paparazzi like that.

[virasisog]

Oscars are rarely unexpected, people know who will get it.

People really don't know until the results is announced. So far I have seen, the idea of who will win what is almost an easy guess and betting on this, is one sure way to cash out, but not with a big margin however
 I would suggest making two different bets for uncertainty's sake.

The result is unpredictable because sometimes, the majority's favorite doesn't win. They have a different basis for choosing the winners so our predictions won't go accurate all the time. I agree with making two different bets because, to be honest, the nominees are all qualified so guessing would be hard. It's exciting and quite confusing at the same time.

[Rikafip]

Oscars are not really a wagering thing if you ask me, maybe I am wrong but isn't it basically decided already. Like unless something shocking happens, the fabelsmans should win it, spielberg should get the director and Cate Blanchett for the female and Brandon Fraser for the male. Those four categories are basically locked already and nobody is expecting anything else. Could it be ever possible to get shocked with some different result?

In some categories there are obvious favorites, but big surprises are still possible. Few years ago Chadwick Boseman was a huge favorite (mainly because he died prior the ceremony) but in the end Anthony Hopkins won the award (well deserved win I must add) so I wouldn't say that betting doesn't make sense. After all, there are many categories without a clear favorite which makes it more interesting and worth betting.

So, you could definitely gamble on these four, and will come out in profit unless something very unexpected happens. Oscars are rarely unexpected, people know who will get it.

If you are so sure that its an easy money, wage a bigger amount and let's see how it goes.  Problem is, when you have clear favorites, odds tend to be way too small so sometimes its not even worth it to bet because of bad risk to reward ratio.

[Captain Corporate]

I agree that it's basically decided beforehand, and to be fair Hopkins won because Hopkins was better, Boseman was only posed to win because he, unfortunately, passed away, but nobody thought he deserved it that year, without his tragic death, he would not be even discussed at all, some people just assumed Boseman would win because of the situation but that had nothing to do with it and Hopkins won as imagined.

I agree that it is mostly decided already, and as someone who has wagered on the last 3 Oscars, I have lost only a single bet once, which is fine I have turned a profit so far as well and I am going to keep making a profit as long as the odds are showing exactly who will win, which it usually does. Still time until March, but most of them are already guaranteed.

Also just watched Spirited, "good afternoon" really does deserve credit, lovely song, and definitely deserves an Oscar.

Good Afternoon to you all

[Rikafip]

I agree that it's basically decided beforehand, and to be fair Hopkins won because Hopkins was better, Boseman was only posed to win because he, unfortunately, passed away, but nobody thought he deserved it that year, without his tragic death, he would not be even discussed at all, some people just assumed Boseman would win because of the situation but that had nothing to do with it and Hopkins won as imagined.

Of course he wouldn't be even close to favorite if he didn't die (probably wouldn't even get nominated) but bookies were so sure in his win that they gave measly ~1.08 (not even worth the bet) while odds on Hopkins winning were ~7. Just because someone was clearly better (like Hopkins was and it was obvious to everyone who watched The Father and that other superhero movie) doesn't mean that it will win an Oscar as history is full of undeserved winners, unfortunately.

[Theones]

Oscars are rarely unexpected, people know who will get it.

People really don't know until the results is announced. So far I have seen, the idea of who will win what is almost an easy guess and betting on this, is one sure way to cash out, but not with a big margin however
 I would suggest making two different bets for uncertainty sake.

People and not much interested in oscar these days. These are so many other attraction that the trend of award watching is ending
I remember - when we were young we used to watch the award ceremonies and the whole family would sit and discuss. Nowadays mobile has changed the life of people altogether and this is not good at all.

[LUCKMCFLY]

In particular, I know that many are fans of many movies but I have something in mind, some films or the ones that most promise have disappointed me, I don't know if it is because of their content or because of the way they write now, there is no longer something extraordinary As there are some things that can be left out things that are not so flashy.

Science fiction movies are the ones that I like the most, but to be honest, none for me have a level that I say impressed me, in the thread before this I remember that many were criticizing the Matrix movie a lot, but to be honest I thought it was a very interesting movie.

Maybe because it depends in you're own perspective. You might want something that others cannot, it is just that maybe when they conduct the survey or something to come up with the tally there are some people who chooses the same thing. It really depends on how we interpret and expect things, I like technology, CGI etc as well but I am not into marvels nor Avatar that is on the list.

indeed! each one of us has different perspectives towards movies. most of the time, we also have different understanding on how good or great a movie is. and with that, you can understand that judges of this certain event have their own criteria as well. and that is why it is hard to bet on this kind of betting lines. there is no defined criteria because it depends on how the judges are evaluating  a certain category. much better to sit back and relax and enjoy the movie.

I always like to do that job, sit down and enjoy, although honestly I have been aware of many movies that I find interesting, usually when there are many famous actors I pay a lot of attention to them, however I have noticed something in terms of Marvel movies and DC, those of DC are better recognized and rewarded, we cannot forget the Joker, the new Batman, the special effects and what they have to do with these films is something very different, can you see certain favorites there, I wonder Why are Marvel movies not recognized? Of course, in my personal opinion, the latest Marvel movies have seemed very low level, I don't know if it's due to inclusion or something similar, but they have been meaningless to me, when before they were the best.

[KTChampions]

In some categories there are obvious favorites, but big surprises are still possible. Few years ago Chadwick Boseman was a huge favorite (mainly because he died prior the ceremony) but in the end Anthony Hopkins won the award (well deserved win I must add) so I wouldn't say that betting doesn't make sense. After all, there are many categories without a clear favorite which makes it more interesting and worth betting.

Interestingly, those who bet on winners in nominations where there are no obvious favorites are guided by what? It is impossible to guess what is in the head of academicians, box office receipts and public ratings also do not matter. Does intuition (gambling) remain? Probably these bets are made just for fun, because serious analysis here (as in sports, for example) is impossible.

[bitgov]

It's true that movies like Avatar have a strong advantage in the visual effects category at awards shows like the Oscars. These movies often rely heavily on
The visual effects is not really a category for the movie itself but for the company that did the CGI and that's still good but that doesn't tell much about the movie. No matter how much it was pushed and pushed and pushed on marketing, even didn't let End Game to have the highest box office and put first Avatar on theatres again just for another run in order to get the top box office to make more marketing on the second one, I have to say Avatar will never be a good "movie".

It is about improvement of the cinematic technology and nothing more. For acting, script, and everything else, even producing, its not the best movie at all, its just there to flex on the tech they can use to make a movie and that's it.

In my opinion the most controversial movie goes to OSCAR - one of the movies JOYLAND which is a Pakistani movies and is banned in Pakistan and nominated for Oscar while people of Pakistan are unable to watch it on the big screen here.

Have you seen Avatar yet? I haven't seen that movie, I can't deny that I started to watch it but I only saw it for 5 minutes and it didn't catch my attention, of course, I'll be honest, I haven't gone to see it in the cinema, I was watching it in a downloaded version and of course I saw it with good quality and it had very poor sound quality, it's something that I didn't think, besides, it was a pirated version that they downloaded and I didn't like it because it brought a lot of advertising, and that advertising was mostly from a rather scam casino, and that It was something that really overwhelmed my patience, I didn't like it at all, so I'd rather see it in the movies, but at this point I think it's no longer in the movies.

Hi - five, I am the one who have not watched the movie Avatar.
earlier I thought I am the only one who have not watched this movie - but today I found you too. I tried watching that film so many times but I didnot muster up the courage to watch it

[Theones]

In particular, I know that many are fans of many movies but I have something in mind, some films or the ones that most promise have disappointed me, I don't know if it is because of their content or because of the way they write now, there is no longer something extraordinary As there are some things that can be left out things that are not so flashy.

Science fiction movies are the ones that I like the most, but to be honest, none for me have a level that I say impressed me, in the thread before this I remember that many were criticizing the Matrix movie a lot, but to be honest I thought it was a very interesting movie.

Maybe because it depends in you're own perspective. You might want something that others cannot, it is just that maybe when they conduct the survey or something to come up with the tally there are some people who chooses the same thing. It really depends on how we interpret and expect things, I like technology, CGI etc as well but I am not into marvels nor Avatar that is on the list.

indeed! each one of us has different perspectives towards movies. most of the time, we also have different understanding on how good or great a movie is. and with that, you can understand that judges of this certain event have their own criteria as well. and that is why it is hard to bet on this kind of betting lines. there is no defined criteria because it depends on how the judges are evaluating  a certain category. much better to sit back and relax and enjoy the movie.

I always like to do that job, sit down and enjoy, although honestly I have been aware of many movies that I find interesting, usually when there are many famous actors I pay a lot of attention to them, however I have noticed something in terms of Marvel movies and DC, those of DC are better recognized and rewarded, we cannot forget the Joker, the new Batman, the special effects and what they have to do with these films is something very different, can you see certain favorites there, I wonder Why are Marvel movies not recognized? Of course, in my personal opinion, the latest Marvel movies have seemed very low level, I don't know if it's due to inclusion or something similar, but they have been meaningless to me, when before they were the best.

Mee too - I love watching movie. In Fact I have difficulty sleeping when I dont watch movie at night. I am netflix addict and watch one movie everyday
I have even learnt from internet that there are companies which pay on watching their video for increase rating

[bbc.reporter]

Oscars are not really a wagering thing if you ask me, maybe I am wrong but isn't it basically decided already. Like unless something shocking happens, the fabelsmans should win it, spielberg should get the director and Cate Blanchett for the female and Brandon Fraser for the male. Those four categories are basically locked already and nobody is expecting anything else. Could it be ever possible to get shocked with some different result?

In some categories there are obvious favorites, but big surprises are still possible. Few years ago Chadwick Boseman was a huge favorite (mainly because he died prior the ceremony) but in the end Anthony Hopkins won the award (well deserved win I must add) so I wouldn't say that betting doesn't make sense. After all, there are many categories without a clear favorite which makes it more interesting and worth betting.

Yes, was that when black lives matter was always on the news? The members of the academy might have decided not to put more fuel on the issue by not voting for the black actor hehe.

The last Oscar awards also had some surprises. Best picture favorite last year was Temple of the Dog but it was Coda that won, there was also the year when the movie Green Book won for best picture instead of the favorite Roma.

In any case, this look for changes in the odds after the Golden Globe awards on January 10. Some of the big changes could be something similar to trading signals.

[Rikafip]

Interestingly, those who bet on winners in nominations where there are no obvious favorites are guided by what? It is impossible to guess what is in the head of academicians, box office receipts and public ratings also do not matter. Does intuition (gambling) remain?

In those cases its more about the guesstimate I think. If you follow Oscars and general Hollywood tendencies, you can (to some degree) figure out what could Academia people vote for. I personally make 2 tickets each year: one is based on those who I think will win, while another one is based solely on those I would like to win.

Yes, was that when black lives matter was always on the news? The members of the academy might have decided not to put more fuel on the issue by not voting for the black actor hehe.

True, it was at the height of BLM craziness so everyone expected Chadwick Boseman to win, which caused many people to lose money, even though it was a bad bet with an awful R:R ratio obvious to everyone who saw Hopkins performance.

The last Oscar awards also had some surprises. Best picture favorite last year was Temple of the Dog but it was Coda that won, there was also the year when the movie Green Book won for best picture instead of the favorite Roma.

Yep, both Coda and Green Book undeservedly won; Coda was a decent movie but still just a remake of a French movie made few years ago and inferior to Dog and Dune (I will never understand academy being so reluctant to give SF movie a best picture award and instead always playing it safe with dramas). Regarding Green Book, it was another solid movie but imho Roma was vastly superior (and one my favorite movies in the last few years) but we know that Academia has its own agenda.

In any case, this look for changes in the odds after the Golden Globe awards on January 10. Some of the big changes could be something similar to trading signals.

Situation will be much clearer after that, but the odds are better now. 

[KTChampions]

Interestingly, those who bet on winners in nominations where there are no obvious favorites are guided by what? It is impossible to guess what is in the head of academicians, box office receipts and public ratings also do not matter. Does intuition (gambling) remain?

In those cases its more about the guesstimate I think. If you follow Oscars and general Hollywood tendencies, you can (to some degree) figure out what could Academia people vote for. I personally make 2 tickets each year: one is based on those who I think will win, while another one is based solely on those I would like to win.~

The mistake i made too often at the recent World Cup (football)  
By trends, do you mean the so-called "agenda"? Yes, I have noticed that some films that do not meet it do not have a chance to win a prize, but I'm not sure how much this factor is influential in order to win exactly.

[sana54210]

Interestingly, those who bet on winners in nominations where there are no obvious favorites are guided by what? It is impossible to guess what is in the head of academicians, box office receipts and public ratings also do not matter. Does intuition (gambling) remain? Probably these bets are made just for fun, because serious analysis here (as in sports, for example) is impossible.

I do not think it would be impossible to know what's on the minds of the academy. In my opinion as well it is quite easy, you ask them and they tell you. You may imagine that it's a secretly done thing, but I think it is obvious and being shared to everyone. Go back as many years as possible and see the odds of the best picture for example and how many times the one that was pose to win ended up winning.

I can tell you that 90% of the time, unless something major happens; the one with the best odds will be the winner, that is always the case. Hence, I believe that it will be like that this year too. My bet is on the fabelmans, it is "sort of biography" type of deal, so I wagered on it.

[famososMuertos]

../Q/...;;
The result is unpredictable because sometimes, the majority's favorite doesn't win. They have a different basis for choosing the winners so our predictions won't go accurate all the time. I agree with making two different bets because, to be honest, the nominees are all qualified so guessing would be hard. It's exciting and quite confusing at the same time.

Guessing... seriously, maybe not the reason to bet twice.

The favorite wins, if the Oscars have something, it is that they are predictable in their base categories, in the deeper or specialized categories there is variance.

In any case, the reason for winning an Oscar in its difficulty is that approximately 3000 people vote in common for a certain category. Actor and actress have the least variance, and usually the favorites manage to win.

Now the curious thing about this event is to see how traditional Sportsbooks are accepting this type of event.
.

[LUCKMCFLY]

To be honest with you, I cannot argue yet. I have not watched any of the top movies speculated to be nominated in the Oscar awards. However, similar to what I have said before, sportsbooks and oddsmakers list the odds based on what they speculate might win with much of the votes from the academy of motion picture arts and sciences. They also clearly have more information than us. Our task as bettors is to speculate on the changes in odds and take advantage.

It is true that people still do go to movies, but after the pandemic there was bound to be some drop, and I doubt it would go back to numbers it reached for a while. Cinema lived a good golden age between 2010 and 2020, but after 2020 there were lockdowns and so forth, and more and more netflix style things became known, disney plus is the most famous one, but even smaller ones like hbo and even to a point amazon prime became more and more used.

That means we are talking about multiple companies giving you a chance to watch things at home, and a lot more things to watch with high quality is now available to you within a click as well. It's harder to convince people to get out of their house and pay a months wort subscription on tickets, and maybe another for pop corn and a soda.

Well, you're right about that, I particularly like Marvel movies a lot, but lately they've put a lot of inclusion things into it and that's something I don't like, I respect everything that has to do with inclusion, but It's so much that they highlight it that it's cloying, I had high expectations with the Thor movie, but I didn't like it at all, the movie that I really liked a lot is the one made by Tom Cruise, from Maverick, I don't know if it's nominated , but it is one of the few films that I recommend, it is very good, they follow the same style and it is really nice to see a film of that level.

That is correct - the Maverick was very good.
Tom Cruise showed that he is still the greatest actor of all the times.
But that is correct too. People are losing interests in Oscars too. there is so much excitement around and there is so much other stuff to be thought about.

Yes, the truth is that when I saw the movie it made me feel very good, years ago, when I was a child, I watched Top Gun1, and every time it is shown on TV and I have the opportunity to see it, I do it, because they are movies that are very comprehensive. In addition, Tom Cruise had to learn to fly those planes to make Maverick, that's something I really admire, these actors are on another level, and it's impressive how he maintains himself, those who made the film show a lot of age, the woman who starred in it at that time is currently not the same, not even in body, the only one who maintains everything and who looks even young is him, he is impressive, well all of this helps us to say that this film is one of the better.

[Sithara007]

The nominations vote will start in two days from now (12th January) and on 24th January we will get the announcement on all the final nominations. I still believe that we may get a few surprises when the announcement is made on 24th. Last time, CODA managed to win the Oscars for best picture despite stiff competition from Belfast, Dune and The Power of the Dog. And one year earlier, it was Nomadland which was able to beat competition from Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Father. Back then Nomadland had odds of 1/6, while the odds for The Trial Of The Chicago 7 was 6/1.       

[bbc.reporter]

In any case, this look for changes in the odds after the Golden Globe awards on January 10. Some of the big changes could be something similar to trading signals.

Situation will be much clearer after that, but the odds are better now.  

Odds for the Golden Globe awards.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2488676-golden-globe-award-2023

There are some differences in odds of the Oscar awards in different categories. For best actor, the Golden Globe awards have Austin Butler as a very big favorite for his performance as an actor in a drama role in Elvis. The odds for him in the Oscar awards is 4.00.

Colin Farrell is another very big favorite for his acting in a comedy in the Banshees of Inisherin with odds of 1.09, however, his odds for best actor in the Oscar awards is 3.00.

Odds for the Oscar awards for comparison.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets

We might find some trading signals hehehehe.

[Rikafip]

There are some differences in odds of the Oscar awards in different categories. For best actor, the Golden Globe awards have Austin Butler as a very big favorite for his performance as an actor in a drama role in Elvis. The odds for him in the Oscar awards is 4.00.

I suspect Austin Butler being such a big favorite has something with Brendan Fraser saying that he won't attend the Golden Globe ceremony even if he gets nominated because he claimed to be sexually assaulted back in 2003 by the former Golden Globes president Philip Berk so I guess that's their way of getting back at him.

Colin Farrell is another very big favorite for his acting in a comedy in the Banshees of Inisherin with odds of 1.09, however, his odds for best actor in the Oscar awards is 3.00.

In this case, odds are so different because Oscar has only one best actor category so there he has to go against Brendan Fraser.