Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[BADecker]

Seems that Belarus is starting to wake up its support of Russia, if the Ukraine war goes to WW3. Belarus, if you remember, is the Country just North of Ukraine... the country that let Russia use its land in the first attack against Kiev at the start of the war. More countries should recognize the disastrous affect the West is having on Ukraine, and jump out of Nato and join Russia... if they want their freedom to survive as a country, that is.


Putin Ally Makes Surprise Nuclear Move


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-ally-makes-surprise-nuclear-move/ar-BB1m1XqK?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=4603d79207d344ec9905d0c4299882b4&ei=15
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think tank, in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Tuesday weighed in on Lukashenko's move to conduct sudden checks on the readiness of his military to deploy tactical nuclear weapons.

Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Belarus, a former Soviet Union republic, has maintained strong relations with Russia since the Russian leader launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In January, the Belarusian president announced that Russian nuclear weapons, controlled by Moscow, had arrived in Belarus. Lukashenko said last month that "several dozen" tactical nuclear weapons from Russia had been deployed in his country. The drills will involve those weapons.
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[DaRude]

Obviously you would not lend to Ruzzia at the same rates as Germany nor you would expect re-structuring from Germany .Again, you are not going to enlighten anyone here about credit ratings.

Ukraine is a perfectly viable independent country in economic terms if the war is ended correctly. You know this, Putin knows this and you both want to avoid this outcome at all costs by asking for a surrender while calling it "peace".

Try to be honest for once will you? You were clearly giving credibility to options about the Ukrainian glide bombs and the western weaponry in terms of "not working". Would you like then to retract and say they are not working 100%?

Particularly, what degree of "not working" and the S300 S400 being enough to deal with the western supplied missiles do you claim? And what degree of "not working" do you attribute to the French glide bombs smashing the east bank of the dnipro?

Meh comparing default risks of Germany vs Russia is not interesting, now Russian war bonds vs. Ukrainian war bonds on a free market would be for a far more interesting conversation.

Ukraine was a perfectly viable country in economic terms in 2013, and there was peace and overall prosperity in EU. You know this, and EU knows this, but US decided to change that status quo with some sweet cookies that some naive people fell for and fuck the EU, EU didn't have the balls to stop it so now we're all paying the consequences.
[...][/url]

Once again i'm not a military expert to comment on the specifics, i just collect credible reports from multiple sources and report it here. If you have credible reports that claim otherwise, that Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs work amazingly for Ukraine do share them, otherwise unless you reveal yourself as some war general or top military strategist, i'll believe media reports over your opinion. Honestly i don't see what you're so held up on, are you just incapable of admitting that some weapons might not work for Ukraine, is that it? There are no reports that ATACMS don't work (there are other issues with them mainly cost and availability but effectiveness doesn't seem to be one of them), yet there are plenty that GLSDB and Excalibur are not effective. Either provide a more credible source claiming otherwise or stop spreading misinformation with your random opinions and pictures/videos.

Even from some UA source defence-ua.com  

Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) was supposed to become one of Ukraine's farthest-reaching strike weapons, enabling Ukrainian forces to launch strikes 150 km deep inside russian rear on par with ATACMS missiles. However, in practice GLSDB has shown low effectiveness, as follows from the vague words by William LaPlante, Pentagon's Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, he attributed the poor performance to the electronic warfare factor, as well as this weapon's general application tactics and doctrine.

Well, you know, never to late to grow balls. Europe is slow, but is not immobile and the risk of Trump as president - pretty much Putin´s wet dreams made true - is certainly creating the conditions for a nuclear able Germany. It think that Europe could create a programme for, let´s say 1000 strategic warheads, so next time it can talk to Ruzzia with some "backup". I am not sure that Trump understands that if Europe feels undefended the non-proliferation is over.

I am not sure where did they get the idea that a glide bomb can be thrown 150 km behind the front... or maybe I am not reading correctly. It simply does not make sense, ATACAMS have a much larger range... bombs are not really that sensitive to EW... I am not sure where they got all that.

Again, you say you are not an expert, but at the same time you are giving credibility to all the opinions that match your narrative, so I am going to make the question again - the one you do not want to answer: To what degree do you think ATACAMS will "not work" and to what degree do you think glide bombs "do not work".

I think that Ukraine has new weapons and has a proper strategy to use them:
1. Make the war costly for Ruzzia. Attrition in vehicles, people and oil&gas facilities.
2. Start degrading Ruzzian airforce to an unacceptable level.
3.  degrade sufficiently Ruzzian air defence.
4. Keep on destroying the Black Sea fleet to the point that is useless.
5. Prepare for an offensive in 2025 - 26.
6. Obviously, avoid loosing key holds.

Both NATO and Russia have more than enough nukes, about 12k together. In the word of thermonuclear fusion weapons, hypersonic missiles, and fractional orbital bombardment systems the idea that 1k more nukes would change something is one of the dumbest things I've heard in a while. If my country looses so should the whole world mindset?

With Trump is leading in polls 49% and Biden slipping to 43% and Biden's 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically...None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden. denying and not planning for such outcome is just idiotic at this point. Regardless how you feel about Trump, any politician that doesn't plan for Trumps presidency to later claim any such outcome as totally unexpected should be laughed out of politics right now. It's like some politicians acting that they just found out that Russia has 3x population to Ukraine.

Looks like Forbes also puts GLSDB range at about 150km

The 600-pound, 90-mile-range glide-bombs might help to compensate for a dire shortage of 155-millimeter howitzer shells.

Small-diameter high-precision GLSDB munitions did not meet expectations based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, stated Deputy US Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante at the CSIS security forum.

"One company, I won't say who they are, came up with a really cool idea of taking an air-to-ground weapon and doing a ground launch version of it, and it would be a long-range fire weapon. They raced and did it as fast as they could, we even limited the testing in this country. We said, look just test for safety... And then we sent it to Ukrainians. It didn't work," explained LaPlante.

He explained that these munitions failed to perform for several reasons, including:

・interference from electronic warfare systems,

・typical debris and ground use,

・tactical application peculiarities.

Presumably, LaPlante was referring to the recently developed GLSDB missiles from Boeing, which were based on the GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB). Their testing concluded in December last year, and the first confirmed use against Russians appeared in February this year.

LaPlante summarized the situation, emphasizing that "when you send something to people in fight for their lives, and it doesn't work, they'll try it three times and then they'll just throw it aside. So that's happened".

You can not believe Deputy US Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment all you want. But if you want to prove him wrong and claim that GLSDB work for Ukraine you got to cite something outside of your opinion and few pictures.

Wow what a great strategy in just 6 bullet point! But are you saying this is totally new, like really no one thought to implement such basic strategy in the previous 2+ years of fighting? Do you think that's because they're just totally incompetent or it was by design?

[paxmao]

Both NATO and Russia have more than enough nukes, about 12k together. In the word of thermonuclear fusion weapons, hypersonic missiles, and fractional orbital bombardment systems the idea that 1k more nukes would change something is one of the dumbest things I've heard in a while. If my country looses so should the whole world mindset?

With Trump is leading in polls 49% and Biden slipping to 43% and Biden's 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically...None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden. denying and not planning for such outcome is just idiotic at this point. Regardless how you feel about Trump, any politician that doesn't plan for Trumps presidency to later claim any such outcome as totally unexpected should be laughed out of politics right now. It's like some politicians acting that they just found out that Russia has 3x population to Ukraine.

Looks like Forbes also puts GLSDB range at about 150km

The 600-pound, 90-mile-range glide-bombs might help to compensate for a dire shortage of 155-millimeter howitzer shells.

Small-diameter high-precision GLSDB munitions did not meet expectations based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, stated Deputy US Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante at the CSIS security forum.

"One company, I won't say who they are, came up with a really cool idea of taking an air-to-ground weapon and doing a ground launch version of it, and it would be a long-range fire weapon. They raced and did it as fast as they could, we even limited the testing in this country. We said, look just test for safety... And then we sent it to Ukrainians. It didn't work," explained LaPlante.

He explained that these munitions failed to perform for several reasons, including:

・interference from electronic warfare systems,

・typical debris and ground use,

・tactical application peculiarities.

Presumably, LaPlante was referring to the recently developed GLSDB missiles from Boeing, which were based on the GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB). Their testing concluded in December last year, and the first confirmed use against Russians appeared in February this year.

LaPlante summarized the situation, emphasizing that "when you send something to people in fight for their lives, and it doesn't work, they'll try it three times and then they'll just throw it aside. So that's happened".

You can not believe Deputy US Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment all you want. But if you want to prove him wrong and claim that GLSDB work for Ukraine you got to cite something outside of your opinion and few pictures.

Wow what a great strategy in just 6 bullet point! But are you saying this is totally new, like really no one thought to implement such basic strategy in the previous 2+ years of fighting? Do you think that's because they're just totally incompetent or it was by design?

Firstly, I did not take you for such a short sighted one, unless you are again trying to cover up. Even 1 nuke changes the game. There is a qualitative gap between 0 nukes and even 1 nuke, I dare say, more than between 10 and 20. So yes, 1000 nukes in Europe, inclusive of Germany, are more than enough to create second thoughts on anyone trying to invade. It is simple: even if 5 nukes pass the defences and get to Moscow... well, there is no Moscow.

On Trump, well, who knows. He says he intends to end the war in 48 hours... he does not say how and he has said so many things... The gap with Biden, whatever you say, I have seen pols with just a tiny difference.

Glad to know that Ukis can send the glide bombs at around 150Km, I would not have imagined that kind of rangeeven for the smaller units, it kind of make the F16 strategy more interesting.

The deputy US Secretary of defence for Acquisition is just a pencil pusher. You can choose to give credit to his opinion or to retired generals trying to make a buck here and there. I have been looking at the front and some of the Ukrainian strikes and lead me to think that "not working" is nor really a thing.

Re the bullet points, well, if you want a full text, you can look at my previous posts. I mean, if you like heavy documents that you are not going to read nor probably understand, you have them there. it is funny because the official strategy published matches quite a bit of the points I put forward. Maybe I should take a job on this.

[LTU_btc]

While Ukraine continue hitting oil refineries in Russia, such strikes is getting deeper and deeper. This atime they hit refinery in Bashkortostan, Salavat city which is located about 1500 km from border with Ukraine:
https://t.me/breakingmash/54061
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-drone-attack-oil-refinery-bashkortostan-1898844
This time it seems that not much damage was made, but only fact that drone went all this long distance unnoticed is crazy. Well, unless it was released from inside Russia.

[DaRude]

Both NATO and Russia have more than enough nukes, about 12k together. In the word of thermonuclear fusion weapons, hypersonic missiles, and fractional orbital bombardment systems the idea that 1k more nukes would change something is one of the dumbest things I've heard in a while. If my country looses so should the whole world mindset?

With Trump is leading in polls 49% and Biden slipping to 43% and Biden's 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically...None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden. denying and not planning for such outcome is just idiotic at this point. Regardless how you feel about Trump, any politician that doesn't plan for Trumps presidency to later claim any such outcome as totally unexpected should be laughed out of politics right now. It's like some politicians acting that they just found out that Russia has 3x population to Ukraine.

Looks like Forbes also puts GLSDB range at about 150km

The 600-pound, 90-mile-range glide-bombs might help to compensate for a dire shortage of 155-millimeter howitzer shells.

Small-diameter high-precision GLSDB munitions did not meet expectations based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, stated Deputy US Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante at the CSIS security forum.

"One company, I won't say who they are, came up with a really cool idea of taking an air-to-ground weapon and doing a ground launch version of it, and it would be a long-range fire weapon. They raced and did it as fast as they could, we even limited the testing in this country. We said, look just test for safety... And then we sent it to Ukrainians. It didn't work," explained LaPlante.

He explained that these munitions failed to perform for several reasons, including:

・interference from electronic warfare systems,

・typical debris and ground use,

・tactical application peculiarities.

Presumably, LaPlante was referring to the recently developed GLSDB missiles from Boeing, which were based on the GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB). Their testing concluded in December last year, and the first confirmed use against Russians appeared in February this year.

LaPlante summarized the situation, emphasizing that "when you send something to people in fight for their lives, and it doesn't work, they'll try it three times and then they'll just throw it aside. So that's happened".

You can not believe Deputy US Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment all you want. But if you want to prove him wrong and claim that GLSDB work for Ukraine you got to cite something outside of your opinion and few pictures.

Wow what a great strategy in just 6 bullet point! But are you saying this is totally new, like really no one thought to implement such basic strategy in the previous 2+ years of fighting? Do you think that's because they're just totally incompetent or it was by design?

Firstly, I did not take you for such a short sighted one, unless you are again trying to cover up. Even 1 nuke changes the game. There is a qualitative gap between 0 nukes and even 1 nuke, I dare say, more than between 10 and 20. So yes, 1000 nukes in Europe, inclusive of Germany, are more than enough to create second thoughts on anyone trying to invade. It is simple: even if 5 nukes pass the defences and get to Moscow... well, there is no Moscow.

On Trump, well, who knows. He says he intends to end the war in 48 hours... he does not say how and he has said so many things... The gap with Biden, whatever you say, I have seen pols with just a tiny difference.

Glad to know that Ukis can send the glide bombs at around 150Km, I would not have imagined that kind of rangeeven for the smaller units, it kind of make the F16 strategy more interesting.

The deputy US Secretary of defence for Acquisition is just a pencil pusher. You can choose to give credit to his opinion or to retired generals trying to make a buck here and there. I have been looking at the front and some of the Ukrainian strikes and lead me to think that "not working" is nor really a thing.

Re the bullet points, well, if you want a full text, you can look at my previous posts. I mean, if you like heavy documents that you are not going to read nor probably understand, you have them there. it is funny because the official strategy published matches quite a bit of the points I put forward. Maybe I should take a job on this.

Again please stop with your moronic statements about nukes. Even if 1 nuke goes to Moscow that would mean that there is no more world. That's like saying what would happen if one nuke from Belarus makes it to Washington. Reshuffling nukes within NATO makes no difference. Also stop pretending that Russia is planning on attacking Germany, as if NATO didn't have article 5, and pretending that Russia and Germany weren't building more gas pipelines directly between each other to bypass Ukraine before 2014, before someone decided to blow up some of them.

Sure there are no guarantees with Trump, but at this point it's more likely than not. Basing your whole foreign policy on that not happening just means you're trying to fool your own people.

Well, when it's between top pentagon official and a forum member without citations think you know who we all believe more.

You're not explaining why such basic strategy, which even you can see hasn't been implemented yet? Incompetence or by design?

While Ukraine continue hitting oil refineries in Russia, such strikes is getting deeper and deeper. This atime they hit refinery in Bashkortostan, Salavat city which is located about 1500 km from border with Ukraine:
https://t.me/breakingmash/54061
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-drone-attack-oil-refinery-bashkortostan-1898844
This time it seems that not much damage was made, but only fact that drone went all this long distance unnoticed is crazy. Well, unless it was released from inside Russia.

Russia put Two Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants out of operation so this was the response. Also speculating that they just launching them from within Russia, there's definitely enough space to launch whatever you want and not be seen for kilometers.

[be.open]

While Ukraine continue hitting oil refineries in Russia, such strikes is getting deeper and deeper. This atime they hit refinery in Bashkortostan, Salavat city which is located about 1500 km from border with Ukraine:
https://t.me/breakingmash/54061
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-drone-attack-oil-refinery-bashkortostan-1898844
This time it seems that not much damage was made, but only fact that drone went all this long distance unnoticed is crazy. Well, unless it was released from inside Russia.

To paraphrase Arestovich, I can note that there are only two or three hydroelectric power stations left in Ukraine for attacks on Russian refineries.

ps After this, Ukraine will soon be closer than ever to the European dream of green generation, with 100% generation from nuclear power plants.

[Branko]

It seems regarding energy, Ukraine was in deep trouble month ago already:

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1778373018391027864

[paxmao]

[...]

Again please stop with your moronic statements about nukes. Even if 1 nuke goes to Moscow that would mean that there is no more world. [...]

Are you getting nervous? Name calling? Really? You are the only stupid here that does not understands how nuclear deterrence works.

I will repeat it again, just because you seem to like it that much: one nuke is not just a bit more than zero. It is the difference between a nuclear power and not a nuclear power, between having a world with a controlled number of countries with a controlled number of combinations for a nuclear conflict and an scenario that doubles the number of nuclear armed countries and exponentially grows the combinations for a conflict.

1000 nukes in and controlled by Germany, Poland, Letonia, Lituania, Ukraine, Finland, Norway... just name all the countries that feel threatened by Ruzzia - and you claim that does not matter because "it is not too many more nukes"? I think you just do not understand shit of the world we live in.

Having this scenario is Putin's doing because everyone around Ruzzia cannot ever feel safe, so happy birthday and I hope that if we are all ever blown up it catches you counting the money you are getting paid little troll.

Well, when it's between top pentagon official and a forum member without citations think you know who we all believe more.

Your eyes.

Also stop pretending that Russia is planning on attacking Germany, as if NATO didn't have article 5,

Stop pretending that Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries are not going thinking already about getting their own deterrence when Trump is saying he wants to break NATO.

In that regard is irrelevant who wins the elections, because in military terms you have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst and Europe can no longer assume that the US umbrella will work. Europe is veeery slow, but is not stupid.

While Ukraine continue hitting oil refineries in Russia, such strikes is getting deeper and deeper. This atime they hit refinery in Bashkortostan, Salavat city which is located about 1500 km from border with Ukraine:
https://t.me/breakingmash/54061
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-drone-attack-oil-refinery-bashkortostan-1898844
This time it seems that not much damage was made, but only fact that drone went all this long distance unnoticed is crazy. Well, unless it was released from inside Russia.

You can buy an electric generator from Germany, US,... is not that easy, it takes a while to manufacture and it is not a perfect solution at all. You can import electricity and perhaps improve the infrastructure to import which is no off the shelve, but is not high tec either. The attacks on Ukraine power grid are to be taken seriously, but they will not stop the Ukrainian army.

At the same time, you cannot buy a refinery distillation column. You cannot build it yourself and you cannot just get it by Amazon next day. You just need to get used to buy gasoline in the market  (it is cheap right now, fill the tanks... or maybe not, they may get blown) and not having it will stop your troops. As it will not having enough to pay for the cost of a war.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-swings-into-69-billion-net-loss-2023-2024-05-02/

Gazprom plunges to first annual loss in 20 years as trade with Europe hit

This alone will not cause Ruzzia to loose, but along with a wider strategy and more pressure points, it perfectly may.