Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[DaRude]

Dismal counteroffensive results undercut the message to support Ukraine so it can win Russia on the battlefield. Israel bombardments undercut the message to support Ukraine on the humanitarian grounds, and now we're getting to the final stage, support Ukraine because it's...profitable for us!

The White House is losing the messaging war on Ukraine. Now it’s changing the message.

The president’s team is privately urging lawmakers to focus on the jobs that can be created by money spent on the war.

The White House has been quietly urging lawmakers in both parties to sell the war efforts abroad as a potential economic boom at home.

Aides have been distributing talking points to Democrats and Republicans who have been supportive of continued efforts to fund Ukraine’s resistance to make the case that doing so is good for American jobs, according to five White House aides and lawmakers familiar with the effort and granted anonymity to speak freely.
...
“This supplemental request invests over $50 billion in the American defense industrial base — ensuring our military continues to be the most ready, capable, and best equipped fighting force the world has ever seen — and expanding production lines, strengthening the American economy and creating new American jobs,” the document states.
...
“No Americans are getting killed in Ukraine. We’re rebuilding our industrial base. The Ukrainians are destroying the army of one of our biggest rivals. I have a hard time finding anything wrong with that. I think it’s wonderful that they’re defending themselves,” he said on CBS’s Face the Nation.
...
On top of communication with McConnell, Defense Department officials have also circulated to the Hill slides showing nearly $20 billion in investment in the industrial base via U.S. support for Ukraine. That includes nearly $3.1 billion in contracts targeted toward expanding the nation’s industrial base capacity, including increasing artillery production approximately six-fold over three years.
...
But White House aides have also argued that the war was hitting Americans in their wallets. They blamed the conflict for surging costs, particularly gas prices — though its “Putin’s price hike” moniker didn’t catch on — and warned that economic woes would grow if Ukraine fell.

Now, the tenor of the economic push has changed, with White House aides enlisting lawmakers to make a more positive case.
...
“Equipment that defends America and is made in America. Patriot missiles for air defense batteries, made in Arizona. Artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas. And so much more,” he said. “You know, just as in World War II, today patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom.”

The change in sales pitch comes as polls show that Americans are growing more skeptical of the effort to help Ukraine — and continue to question Biden’s handling of the economy.

Well, at least he's brutally honest about it We need to sacrifice Ukrainian gene pool for US military industrial complex. Wiping out competition in EU is just a bonus on top of that. See no downside at all. But people seem to realize that there's no free lunch, and that paying half the people to dig holes and the other half to cover them up besides jobs also creates inflation. Not a fan of Trump but at this point, with Trump's supporter as the House speaker, it be impossible for orange man not to win.

In other news:

 

Pentagon warns about China’s growing long-range missile arsenal in major report
...
China is rapidly modernizing its military and using it as a means of projecting power across the Pacific region and ultimately around the globe, improving its ability to operate in all the domains of warfare, including the traditional land, air and sea, as well as nuclear, cyber and space.
...
As part of the latest National Defense Strategy, the US has pointed to China as the “pacing challenge,” capable of competing with America in terms of its military might, economic power and international reach. Beijing already possesses a standing army of more than one million soldiers, the largest navy in the world by number of ships and the largest air force in the region.
...
 Chinese military pilots have ramped up their “coercive and risky” behavior against US aircraft flying over the East and South China in the last two years. In total, there have been more than 180 such incidents, including some in which the Chinese jets came to within 20 feet of US military aircraft.
...
 US defense officials are still frustrated by China’s unwillingness to engage in high-level military-to-military channels, but a defense official said on Wednesday that some communication continues at the working level.

Yes yes Ukraine is really close to taking all its land back and about to send its troops to take Moscow...soon...believe

Edit:
And some more news. A blind would see a trend here

Newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said on Thursday that funding to support Ukraine and Israel should be handled separately, suggesting he will not back President Joe Biden's $106 billion aid package for both countries.
...
Johnson said of Ukraine funding: "We want to know what the object is there, what is the end game in Ukraine.

"The White House has not provided that," he added.

Biden is betting that including money for Israel and immigration will help convince House Republicans wary of sending additional money to Ukraine to support the measure.

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.

[paxmao]

...

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.
...

Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.

There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.

The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.

Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.

Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...

[Branko]

Really?

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-avdiivka-donetsk-1837675

LOL, since when Arestovich become credible source. IIRC, in past Russians were laughing from his future predictions. But now when he said something what Russia want to hear, it's already ok to quote him.
I'm wondering, from all things that he said, what % turned into reality. And he said a lot of things...

In 2019 he said that Russia will attack Ukraine in 2022

https://youtu.be/1xNHmHpERH8

This is why Ukraine must stop Putin and the "Eastern culture" of the Ruzzian Army.

Then why accept "Western culture" since USA/UK/Germany did much worse atrocities


[moderator's note: multiple posts have been merged]

[Hispo]

Is it just me or the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been pushed to one side by the news we all received from Israel and within the United States (about the prosecution of Trump and his codefendants).
I have not see a single news about the conflict in several days appearing on my social media accounts, I am not even sure whether the Ukrainian forces have been able to keep the Russian troops at bay and away from Kiev.
Keeping in mind that obviously most of the western media is in favor of Ukraine, I fear there is a suppression of information, because there has not been good news to share...

The UN however has not pushed much outside, they recently published a report on the situation in the occupied territories. And people still speak of reaching a peace or getting Ukraine to accept an invasion. This is not an ONG report, these comes from UN Commissioners.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142617

In one instance, a 75-year-old woman who stayed alone to protect her property, was raped and tortured by a Russian soldier who hit her on the face, chest, and ribs, and strangled her, while interrogating her.

Yes, you have read correctly, a 75 year old woman raped. That's orc behaviour at its worst.

New evidence, same torture pattern - Their investigations also confirmed previous findings that Russian authorities used torture in a widespread and systematic way in various types of detention facilities.

The Commissioners investigated further accounts of Ukrainian children being transferred to Russia or to Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. They concluded that the transfer of 31 children to Russia in May 2022 was an unlawful deportation, thus a war crime.

This is why Ukraine must stop Putin and the "Eastern culture" of the Ruzzian Army.

Barbaric and disgusting.
To be honest, if these news coming out ocuppied territories about how local population is being treated by the invaders have truth in them, then indeed the Kremlin is behaving like a criminal organization for letting this continue to happen.
One thing is to invade a country without even declaring war and a causus belli, but a completely different situation is to try to take over a country and also do that to civilians. No wonder why The Kremlin allowed Hamas representatives into their country, they are more alike than we think.

[Branko]

Barbaric and disgusting.
To be honest, if these news coming out ocuppied territories about how local population is being treated by the invaders have truth in them, then indeed the Kremlin is behaving like a criminal organization for letting this continue to happen.
One thing is to invade a country without even declaring war and a causus belli, but a completely different situation is to try to take over a country and also do that to civilians. No wonder why The Kremlin allowed Hamas representatives into their country, they are more alike than we think.

Sad reality is that regarding war crimes everyone is more or less the sam, its just how media filters it out
I bet if for some reason USA stance would change, Ukrainians would suddenly become worst scum, fascists, rapists, whatever
Its emotional trap that you should avoid, its all about money for the elites, everything else is just for show

[paxmao]

Barbaric and disgusting.
To be honest, if these news coming out ocuppied territories about how local population is being treated by the invaders have truth in them, then indeed the Kremlin is behaving like a criminal organization for letting this continue to happen.
One thing is to invade a country without even declaring war and a causus belli, but a completely different situation is to try to take over a country and also do that to civilians. No wonder why The Kremlin allowed Hamas representatives into their country, they are more alike than we think.

Sad reality is that regarding war crimes everyone is more or less the sam, its just how media filters it out
I bet if for some reason USA stance would change, Ukrainians would suddenly become worst scum, fascists, rapists, whatever
Its emotional trap that you should avoid, its all about money for the elites, everything else is just for show

No it is not the same. The report speaks of systematic and widespread torture practices which are peculiar to the Ruzzian Army in the invasion of Ukraine. This is not a US report, this is a report by the UN of which Ruzzia is a member. This is not about any media filtering, if you want to open a thread about what US does feel free to do so, but here and now Ruzzia is torturing systematically and across many locations as a estate policy. That is inhuman and that is another reason why they need to be demilitarised.

[Branko]

Barbaric and disgusting.
To be honest, if these news coming out ocuppied territories about how local population is being treated by the invaders have truth in them, then indeed the Kremlin is behaving like a criminal organization for letting this continue to happen.
One thing is to invade a country without even declaring war and a causus belli, but a completely different situation is to try to take over a country and also do that to civilians. No wonder why The Kremlin allowed Hamas representatives into their country, they are more alike than we think.

Sad reality is that regarding war crimes everyone is more or less the sam, its just how media filters it out
I bet if for some reason USA stance would change, Ukrainians would suddenly become worst scum, fascists, rapists, whatever
Its emotional trap that you should avoid, its all about money for the elites, everything else is just for show

No it is not the same. The report speaks of systematic and widespread torture practices which are peculiar to the Ruzzian Army in the invasion of Ukraine. This is not a US report, this is a report by the UN of which Ruzzia is a member. This is not about any media filtering, if you want to open a thread about what US does feel free to do so, but here and now Ruzzia is torturing systematically and across many locations as a estate policy. That is inhuman and that is another reason why they need to be demilitarised.

Israel said UN reports are false and unreliable...are you antisemite maybe to question them?

[paxmao]

Barbaric and disgusting.
To be honest, if these news coming out ocuppied territories about how local population is being treated by the invaders have truth in them, then indeed the Kremlin is behaving like a criminal organization for letting this continue to happen.
One thing is to invade a country without even declaring war and a causus belli, but a completely different situation is to try to take over a country and also do that to civilians. No wonder why The Kremlin allowed Hamas representatives into their country, they are more alike than we think.

Sad reality is that regarding war crimes everyone is more or less the sam, its just how media filters it out
I bet if for some reason USA stance would change, Ukrainians would suddenly become worst scum, fascists, rapists, whatever
Its emotional trap that you should avoid, its all about money for the elites, everything else is just for show

No it is not the same. The report speaks of systematic and widespread torture practices which are peculiar to the Ruzzian Army in the invasion of Ukraine. This is not a US report, this is a report by the UN of which Ruzzia is a member. This is not about any media filtering, if you want to open a thread about what US does feel free to do so, but here and now Ruzzia is torturing systematically and across many locations as a estate policy. That is inhuman and that is another reason why they need to be demilitarised.

Israel said UN reports are false and unreliable...are you antisemite maybe to question them?

I am not anti-anyone I am pro-peace. Real durable peace, not agreements that are written knowing they will be broken.

I am not going to whatabout because your response is unrelated to the systematic tortures by Ruzzia as a estate, I will just say that if Israel declares something they are the ones having to explain why.  My view about that conflict is that peace happens when parties want peace - so simple that is always forgotten and anything else goes to another thread.

Now Branko, are you saying in your peculiar way that (pick one or many):

a) Ruzzia does not torture ever, UN reports are wrong.
b) Ruzzia does torture, but occassionally, not systematically.
c) Ruzzia tortures, but it is because all the rest torture so it is ok.
d) Ruzzia effective has the policy of torturing but only to get information.
e) Ruzzia effectively tortures as a policy of estate and because it is allowed in the ranks - e.g. raping a 75 year old that will not give you her fridge because she needs it.

Go on... whatabout, you do not have any real answer.

[Branko]

I am not anti-anyone I am pro-peace. Real durable peace, not agreements that are written knowing they will be broken.

I am not going to whatabout because your response is unrelated to the systematic tortures by Ruzzia as a estate, I will just say that if Israel declares something they are the ones having to explain why.  My view about that conflict is that peace happens when parties want peace - so simple that is always forgotten and anything else goes to another thread.

Now Branko, are you saying in your peculiar way that (pick one or many):

a) Ruzzia does not torture ever, UN reports are wrong.
b) Ruzzia does torture, but occassionally, not systematically.
c) Ruzzia tortures, but it is because all the rest torture so it is ok.
d) Ruzzia effective has the policy of torturing but only to get information.
e) Ruzzia effectively tortures as a policy of estate and because it is allowed in the ranks - e.g. raping a 75 year old that will not give you her fridge because she needs it.

Go on... whatabout, you do not have any real answer.

I am not pro-anyone, I'm pro peace.
All my posts are whatabout because its IMPERATIVE to use same standards for Russia as for Israel or USA or Croatia. Without that, all talk about democracy, freedom,
equality etc are void and nil.
You can't tell me that Croatian generals deserve 850 years of prison because of 1 (ONE!) artilery shell that hit civilian house which supposedly instilled fear
into their civilians and made them flee, and then allow Russia or Israel to use million shells on civilians, and then indict Putin, but not Netanyahu...or Bush or Obama before that

[paxmao]

I am not anti-anyone I am pro-peace. Real durable peace, not agreements that are written knowing they will be broken.

I am not going to whatabout because your response is unrelated to the systematic tortures by Ruzzia as a estate, I will just say that if Israel declares something they are the ones having to explain why.  My view about that conflict is that peace happens when parties want peace - so simple that is always forgotten and anything else goes to another thread.

Now Branko, are you saying in your peculiar way that (pick one or many):

a) Ruzzia does not torture ever, UN reports are wrong.
b) Ruzzia does torture, but occassionally, not systematically.
c) Ruzzia tortures, but it is because all the rest torture so it is ok.
d) Ruzzia effective has the policy of torturing but only to get information.
e) Ruzzia effectively tortures as a policy of estate and because it is allowed in the ranks - e.g. raping a 75 year old that will not give you her fridge because she needs it.

Go on... whatabout, you do not have any real answer.

I am not pro-anyone, I'm pro peace.
All my posts are whatabout because its IMPERATIVE to use same standards for Russia as for Israel or USA or Croatia. Without that, all talk about democracy, freedom,
equality etc are void and nil.
You can't tell me that Croatian generals deserve 850 years of prison because of 1 (ONE!) artilery shell that hit civilian house which supposedly instilled fear
into their civilians and made them flee, and then allow Russia or Israel to use million shells on civilians, and then indict Putin, but not Netanyahu...or Bush or Obama before that

Then the answer is (c) Ruzzia tortures, but it is ok because others do it too.

I am not sure about the case of the Croatian generals. I cannot comment on Israel other I think that there is peace if there is interest in peace, which seems not to be there in the region. Re standards, yes, there should be same standards. I am not sure about Obama or others, I am certain that Bush ordered as a state policy to held prisoners without trial in conditions that, in my view, are torture (from 1 to 10, a 3, but still not acceptable). Also, it is likely that he ordered or consented to order prisoners deported to countries knowing that there it would be 10 of 10. Even before that, during WW II, both British and Americans attacked civil targets "to teach a durable lesson".

But objectively, what is happening in the occupied territories in Ukraine is not acceptable so it is fair to denounce it is happening.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-icc-judge-warrant/32529550.html

ICC Expresses 'Deep Concern' Over Russian Arrest Warrant For Judge

The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) has expressed "deep concern" over Russia's issuance of arrest warrants for several court officials, including one of its judges.

The Russian Interior Ministry said on July 27 that ICC Judge Tomoko Akane was placed on the government's wanted list.

Akane was one of the judges in March to issue arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his children's commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, for being responsible for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia -- a war crime under international legislation.

[DaRude]

...

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.
...

Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.

There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.

The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.

Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.

Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...

I'm talking trends and macro level. From back in August Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia that was too impossible for populists to ignore and now US has a Trumpist House speaker thus Ukraine Aid in Doubt as Johnson Moves to Drop It From Israel Assistance Bill. This closely follows Slovakia where Slovakia's newly appointed Prime Minister Robert Fico will not back further military aid for Ukraine nor support further sanctions against Russia at his first European Union summit. Biden has little choice with this unpopular war so he's rebranding and now attempting to sell the war efforts abroad as a potential economic boom at home. Now with Israel, all eyeballs are drawn to humanitarian crisis and casualties in Gaza, most of the world in UN general assembly is calling for immediate and sustained ‘humanitarian truce’ underlining US hypocrisy and double standards (which unsurprisingly US and Israel voted against, with Ukraine falling in line and abstaining with majority of other European countries) thus now loosing moral ground. And you're still trying to drum up moral by talking about yet another miracle weapon where surely this one must be a game changer, and some localized movements which on a large scale don't matter. Fact of the matter is time has always been on Russia's side, and now more so than ever, even if they don't do anything now they can just wait this out for few more months.  

[paxmao]

...

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.
...

Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.

There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.

The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.

Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.

Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...

I'm talking trends and macro level. From back in August Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia that was too impossible for populists to ignore and now US has a Trumpist House speaker thus Ukraine Aid in Doubt as Johnson Moves to Drop It From Israel Assistance Bill. ....

So... you gather all the news that you find favourable to a certain position and you call that the direction of travel right? Including things like "a majority of Americans do not support further aid"? I mean, your own source says:

And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more.

- so you are right, there are 3% more that think it is enough - seems to me like within the margin of error of one week to another, but sure, if you need "hopium" go for it.

About weapons that are game changers, well they actually are. Two questions that you need to ask yourself:

- Why does Ukraine have a corridor that is working perfectly on exporting grain and other goods by sea? You did not know? Well it is there. Why?
- Why is Ukraine specifically targeting the S-400 and why are they actually able to do it?

From columns of tanks advancing in the early days - or just staying there like sitting ducks -  all over the country, to loosing a year's worth of helicopters in a day, loosing a submarine, getting the Baltic fleet HQ bombed... Excuse me, but I think these weapons have changed the game, like a lot. This is a war of attrition and these weapons are great at blasting high-value targets.

And latest reports speak of even more troops being prepared for yet another assault in Avdiivka, after the loss of more than 200 vehicles in a week. Next week is going to be bloody for Ruzzia.

On the S-400, I will give you a hint: What is the single objective that could make a significant difference, requires a weapon that has not yet been used but it is on its way and might be bothered by S-400s? Another clue: It starts with Kerch and end with Bridge.

Ruzzia as of now has been reduced to WW I strategies - meat waves - with a 10% of other, such as gliding bombs, some Sahed (some say it is keeping them for winter, but it may be the case that there are not that many), missiles (nearly none las month), ... If Ukraine gets more modern aviation and over all the right munitions, the game will change again.

[DaRude]

...

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.
...

Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.

There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.

The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.

Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.

Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...

I'm talking trends and macro level. From back in August Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia that was too impossible for populists to ignore and now US has a Trumpist House speaker thus Ukraine Aid in Doubt as Johnson Moves to Drop It From Israel Assistance Bill. ....

So... you gather all the news that you find favourable to a certain position and you call that the direction of travel right? Including things like "a majority of Americans do not support further aid"? I mean, your own source says:

And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more.

- so you are right, there are 3% more that think it is enough - seems to me like within the margin of error of one week to another, but sure, if you need "hopium" go for it.

About weapons that are game changers, well they actually are. Two questions that you need to ask yourself:

- Why does Ukraine have a corridor that is working perfectly on exporting grain and other goods by sea? You did not know? Well it is there. Why?
- Why is Ukraine specifically targeting the S-400 and why are they actually able to do it?

From columns of tanks advancing in the early days - or just staying there like sitting ducks -  all over the country, to loosing a year's worth of helicopters in a day, loosing a submarine, getting the Baltic fleet HQ bombed... Excuse me, but I think these weapons have changed the game, like a lot. This is a war of attrition and these weapons are great at blasting high-value targets.

And latest reports speak of even more troops being prepared for yet another assault in Avdiivka, after the loss of more than 200 vehicles in a week. Next week is going to be bloody for Ruzzia.

On the S-400, I will give you a hint: What is the single objective that could make a significant difference, requires a weapon that has not yet been used but it is on its way and might be bothered by S-400s? Another clue: It starts with Kerch and end with Bridge.

Ruzzia as of now has been reduced to WW I strategies - meat waves - with a 10% of other, such as gliding bombs, some Sahed (some say it is keeping them for winter, but it may be the case that there are not that many), missiles (nearly none las month), ... If Ukraine gets more modern aviation and over all the right munitions, the game will change again.

No, I don't gather ALL of the news, I gather news from "western" media sources exclusively, with a clear bias towards Ukraine. When CNN says that "Majority of Americans oppose more US aid" and when you adjust that for their bias, you get the idea of true magnitude, only way to change that is to claim that CNN is now a source for Russian propaganda? When i see that even the western media starting to pivot then yes i think that that's a point where even a blind should see a change in "direction of travel". If you wish i can also include FOX, Russian, Belarusian, Chinese, Indian, South American, African, Slovakian and Hungarian sources so you'd get a "full" picture, but i'm afraid that would only paint an even more dismal picture for Ukraine. Sorry if even CNN is too pessimistic for you there's not much left, the last stop to get a rosy picture would be switching to some Ukrainian news sources.

51% opposed more aid back in August, with the new US House speaker (who's not really pro Ukrainian aid) and everything else going on in the two month since then, that number could only have moved in one direction. Let me ask you this, if it's not over 50% then how many Americans in % term need to oppose sending aid to Ukraine for you to start feeling the shifting winds? But i'm afraid we all already know that answer.

We must have a different definition for a "game changing" weapon. But that's good, now all we have to do is just redefine the definition of "winning" for Ukraine, they'll just need someone like yourself to help convince the population.

Yes, yes things will get even worse for Russia next week as Ukraine possibly looses even more land and once again just saying that Russia lost trillion of people/vehicles doesn't say anything at all, you really expect people to know if that's low or high for themselves? You need to also make up a low number of Ukrainian loses so you could lead people to you conclusion. How would Russia loosing X vehicles in a week and taking Z meters help your point, if Ukraine lost Z meters and X+Y vehicles in the same time period? So to be able to make a comparison, you need say that Ukraine losses are much less than 1/3 of X (account for population difference), as well as mention tiny Russian manufacturing capacity which should also be much less than Y vehicles lost.

Wasn't Kerch Bridge already blown up by that vehicle IED? And then again by a remotely controlled boat? And already rebuilt and reopened twice since then? But i guess next time will be totally different, and surely will be yet another game changer right?  

Any official that even hints at justifying this boondoggle with "we didn't expect Russia to use so many people" should really be laughed at and automatically fired from his position.

[paxmao]

...

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.
...

Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.

There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.

The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.

Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.

Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...

I'm talking trends and macro level. From back in August Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia that was too impossible for populists to ignore and now US has a Trumpist House speaker thus Ukraine Aid in Doubt as Johnson Moves to Drop It From Israel Assistance Bill. ....

So... you gather all the news that you find favourable to a certain position and you call that the direction of travel right? Including things like "a majority of Americans do not support further aid"? I mean, your own source says:

And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more.

- so you are right, there are 3% more that think it is enough - seems to me like within the margin of error of one week to another, but sure, if you need "hopium" go for it.

About weapons that are game changers, well they actually are. Two questions that you need to ask yourself:

- Why does Ukraine have a corridor that is working perfectly on exporting grain and other goods by sea? You did not know? Well it is there. Why?
- Why is Ukraine specifically targeting the S-400 and why are they actually able to do it?

From columns of tanks advancing in the early days - or just staying there like sitting ducks -  all over the country, to loosing a year's worth of helicopters in a day, loosing a submarine, getting the Baltic fleet HQ bombed... Excuse me, but I think these weapons have changed the game, like a lot. This is a war of attrition and these weapons are great at blasting high-value targets.

And latest reports speak of even more troops being prepared for yet another assault in Avdiivka, after the loss of more than 200 vehicles in a week. Next week is going to be bloody for Ruzzia.

On the S-400, I will give you a hint: What is the single objective that could make a significant difference, requires a weapon that has not yet been used but it is on its way and might be bothered by S-400s? Another clue: It starts with Kerch and end with Bridge.

Ruzzia as of now has been reduced to WW I strategies - meat waves - with a 10% of other, such as gliding bombs, some Sahed (some say it is keeping them for winter, but it may be the case that there are not that many), missiles (nearly none las month), ... If Ukraine gets more modern aviation and over all the right munitions, the game will change again.

...
We must have a different definition for a "game changing" weapon. But that's good, now all we have to do is just redefine the definition of "winning" for Ukraine, they'll just need someone like yourself to help convince the population.

Yes, yes things will get even worse for Russia next week as Ukraine possibly looses even more land and once again just saying that Russia lost trillion of people/vehicles doesn't say anything at all, you really expect people to know if that's low or high for themselves? You need to also make up a low number of Ukrainian loses so you could lead people to you conclusion. How would Russia loosing X vehicles in a week and taking Z meters help your point, if Ukraine lost Z meters and X+Y vehicles in the same time period? So to be able to make a comparison, you need say that Ukraine losses are much less than 1/3 of X (account for population difference), as well as mention tiny Russian manufacturing capacity which should also be much less than Y vehicles lost.
...

On the news you choose, yes it is biased, you choose those that reinforce your beliefs and choose to ignore other equally important information (e.g. change of Government in Poland). Also, you choose to ignore the effect of the increase in number an effectiveness of the weapons available for Ukraine.

On the redefinition of winning... do you happen to have the phone of the Ruzzian Ministry of Propaganda? They have so much experience in re-defining victory that they could share some of their learnings. I mean... "we will change the Ukrainian government, demilitarise the country and stop NATO expansion...." to "We hope we do not loose the bridge to Crimea and keep a minimum buffer zone and have some fishing boats in Sebastopol".

You do not need a formula to understand the cost of territory. It is simply enough to understand if it is sustainable or not sustainable. Sufficient to say that there are abundant reports of North Korean supplies of shells and low-tech going to the front. Why do you think Ruzzia needs to import low-tech like shells, rifles and artillery from North Korea? Is it because they are producing enough?

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/10/north-korea-arms-russia-2/

‘Dramatic’ Increase in Rail Freight Traffic
It coincides with a “dramatic” increase in rail freight traffic at a North Korean railway facility bordering Russia, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported citing satellite imagery.

The Tumangang railway station saw 73 freight railcars on October 5, the highest volume of traffic witnessed at the facility in five years.

Of course, no free lunch for Ruzzia at all:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/south-korea-warns-russia-of-retaliation-if-missile-tech-supplied-to-north-korea/3034523

South Korea on Friday warned Russia of retaliation if Moscow transfers its missile technology to North Korea.

Ruzzia is banking on entrenching themselves to the point that Ukraine would need two years of intense war to drive them out have the US & other not willing to support Ukraine for that long. Avdiivka is strategic, but it is also an PR exercise for Putin that is why the losses are not being counted.

[DaRude]

...

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.
...

Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.

There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.

The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.

Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.

Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...

I'm talking trends and macro level. From back in August Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia that was too impossible for populists to ignore and now US has a Trumpist House speaker thus Ukraine Aid in Doubt as Johnson Moves to Drop It From Israel Assistance Bill. ....

So... you gather all the news that you find favourable to a certain position and you call that the direction of travel right? Including things like "a majority of Americans do not support further aid"? I mean, your own source says:

And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more.

- so you are right, there are 3% more that think it is enough - seems to me like within the margin of error of one week to another, but sure, if you need "hopium" go for it.

About weapons that are game changers, well they actually are. Two questions that you need to ask yourself:

- Why does Ukraine have a corridor that is working perfectly on exporting grain and other goods by sea? You did not know? Well it is there. Why?
- Why is Ukraine specifically targeting the S-400 and why are they actually able to do it?

From columns of tanks advancing in the early days - or just staying there like sitting ducks -  all over the country, to loosing a year's worth of helicopters in a day, loosing a submarine, getting the Baltic fleet HQ bombed... Excuse me, but I think these weapons have changed the game, like a lot. This is a war of attrition and these weapons are great at blasting high-value targets.

And latest reports speak of even more troops being prepared for yet another assault in Avdiivka, after the loss of more than 200 vehicles in a week. Next week is going to be bloody for Ruzzia.

On the S-400, I will give you a hint: What is the single objective that could make a significant difference, requires a weapon that has not yet been used but it is on its way and might be bothered by S-400s? Another clue: It starts with Kerch and end with Bridge.

Ruzzia as of now has been reduced to WW I strategies - meat waves - with a 10% of other, such as gliding bombs, some Sahed (some say it is keeping them for winter, but it may be the case that there are not that many), missiles (nearly none las month), ... If Ukraine gets more modern aviation and over all the right munitions, the game will change again.

...
We must have a different definition for a "game changing" weapon. But that's good, now all we have to do is just redefine the definition of "winning" for Ukraine, they'll just need someone like yourself to help convince the population.

Yes, yes things will get even worse for Russia next week as Ukraine possibly looses even more land and once again just saying that Russia lost trillion of people/vehicles doesn't say anything at all, you really expect people to know if that's low or high for themselves? You need to also make up a low number of Ukrainian loses so you could lead people to you conclusion. How would Russia loosing X vehicles in a week and taking Z meters help your point, if Ukraine lost Z meters and X+Y vehicles in the same time period? So to be able to make a comparison, you need say that Ukraine losses are much less than 1/3 of X (account for population difference), as well as mention tiny Russian manufacturing capacity which should also be much less than Y vehicles lost.
...

On the news you choose, yes it is biased, you choose those that reinforce your beliefs and choose to ignore other equally important information (e.g. change of Government in Poland). Also, you choose to ignore the effect of the increase in number an effectiveness of the weapons available for Ukraine.

On the redefinition of winning... do you happen to have the phone of the Ruzzian Ministry of Propaganda? They have so much experience in re-defining victory that they could share some of their learnings. I mean... "we will change the Ukrainian government, demilitarise the country and stop NATO expansion...." to "We hope we do not loose the bridge to Crimea and keep a minimum buffer zone and have some fishing boats in Sebastopol".

You do not need a formula to understand the cost of territory. It is simply enough to understand if it is sustainable or not sustainable. Sufficient to say that there are abundant reports of North Korean supplies of shells and low-tech going to the front. Why do you think Ruzzia needs to import low-tech like shells, rifles and artillery from North Korea? Is it because they are producing enough?

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/10/north-korea-arms-russia-2/

‘Dramatic’ Increase in Rail Freight Traffic
It coincides with a “dramatic” increase in rail freight traffic at a North Korean railway facility bordering Russia, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported citing satellite imagery.

The Tumangang railway station saw 73 freight railcars on October 5, the highest volume of traffic witnessed at the facility in five years.

Of course, no free lunch for Ruzzia at all:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/south-korea-warns-russia-of-retaliation-if-missile-tech-supplied-to-north-korea/3034523

South Korea on Friday warned Russia of retaliation if Moscow transfers its missile technology to North Korea.

Ruzzia is banking on entrenching themselves to the point that Ukraine would need two years of intense war to drive them out have the US & other not willing to support Ukraine for that long. Avdiivka is strategic, but it is also an PR exercise for Putin that is why the losses are not being counted.

But see the news sources I post are already biased TOWARDS Ukraine, CNN is creme de la creme for Ukraine. You keep putting yourself in a bubble where you only want to read Ukrainian biased sources. But when we get to the point where even they start to pivot and begin publishing negative outlooks for Ukraine, your response is: but look they still also publish some positive news for Ukraine, so lets just concentrate on that.   I guess creating a smaller bubble and only reading positive news from already biased sources is always a solution, but counterproductive and never a good idea if you want to objectively see the development of the situation.

It's physically impossible to conclude whether conflict is sustainable by only reading made up numbers for one side. Not sure how else i can explain it to you. When making up numbers you need to make them up for both sides (taking into account differences in population and production outputs) for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions, that's just how maths work. This is my best attempt to bring this down to 4th grade level: if during a football game the other side scored 3 goals is it sustainable  

You're ignoring my questions yet keep asking me your questions. Nevertheless, as far as shells it's rather simple, artillery is god of war in this conflict. Most of the casualties are from indirect shrapnel, not bullets. Drones and guided missiles are more effective and they try to push them as this new eye candy but reality is that their scale is just no there yet, so front lines crave more shells. It be silly for a side not to attempt to procure them from anywhere they can Scoop: U.S. to send Israel artillery shells initially destined for Ukraine

Wars Push Up Demand for Weapons, Sparking Fears of Shortages
...
Western defense officials worry that with Israel going to war as the West battles Russia by proxy in Ukraine, there won’t be enough artillery shells and other weapons to keep both allies in the fight.
...
“Of course” there are concerns about competition for military resources because of limited production capacity, said Göran Mårtensson, director general of the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration, which handles procurement for the country’s defense ministry. “There will be more need for that limited production capacity in Europe and the U.S.”
...
Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine roughly 20 months ago, defense contractors across the West have geared up production, but output remains below the volumes of ammunition and equipment being spent on Ukraine’s battlefields.
...
With demand increasing faster than production, prices of some supplies have soared. NATO-standard 155-millimeter artillery shells, one of the West’s most basic armaments, had cost governments about $2,100 apiece before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, said Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, Stoltenberg’s top military adviser, at the NATO forum.
The price of those shells, which Bauer dubbed “one of the most coveted objects in the world right now,” has increased fourfold, to about $8,400, he said.
...
Sweden and three other Nordic countries earlier this month announced a rare multicountry order for 155mm shells for Kyiv, valued at roughly $54 million. At the prices NATO’s Bauer cited, that would deliver fewer than 7,000 rounds.
...
“Everything is connected,” he said. “If Israel is helped out from the U.S. stockpiles, that’s taken away from something.”
...
“The biggest one to highlight, and it sticks out, is on the artillery side,” said Chief Financial Officer Jason Aiken of the recent $106 billion supplemental funding request from the White House, which includes further support for Ukraine and Israel, as well as Taiwan. “The Israeli situation is only going to put upward pressure on that demand.”

The Pentagon has sent back to Israel stocks of its shells relocated this year to replenish U.S. forces in Europe, a senior defense official said this week.

Interesting that no one even bothers to hide, and even started to openly admit, that West is battling Russia by Ukrainian proxy now. And you're still trying to spin Israel conflict as a net positive for Ukraine right?

Edit:
And here's a good quote by Ukrainian Prime Minister from today

“We have a huge deficit of ammunition not just in Ukraine but all over the world,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Financial Times. “We understand we should produce this here in Ukraine because all around the world it’s finished, it’s depleted. All the warehouses are empty.”
...
But building up a procurement industry for shells, artillery and air defence is a far more complex and ambitious undertaking than for drones, at a time of worldwide shortages of key components and raw materials. One official said they could not quickly transform shell production in the way they did for drones, not least because of the global “shortage of gunpowder”.

[Branko]

Even Ukrainian own investigation concludes CIA sponsored nazis shoot their own people
at maidan, and not Yanukovich or Russians

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1717744385079890274?t=VKTlrQ_Z5q5BeZNHHEVoUQ&s=19

[suchmoon]

Even Ukrainian own investigation concludes CIA sponsored nazis shoot their own people
at maidan, and not Yanukovich or Russians

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1717744385079890274?t=VKTlrQ_Z5q5BeZNHHEVoUQ&s=19

Your link points to one conspiratard who quotes another conspiratard who refers to a court decision that literally has no mention of any such bullshit like "CIA sponsored nazis". The court sentenced riot police officers who were under the control of Yanukovich government, so basically the exact opposite of what you're claiming.

[TwitchySeal]

Even Ukrainian own investigation concludes CIA sponsored nazis shoot their own people
at maidan, and not Yanukovich or Russians

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1717744385079890274?t=VKTlrQ_Z5q5BeZNHHEVoUQ&s=19

really?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382794.msg63074850#msg63074850

[Branko]

Even Ukrainian own investigation concludes CIA sponsored nazis shoot their own people
at maidan, and not Yanukovich or Russians

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1717744385079890274?t=VKTlrQ_Z5q5BeZNHHEVoUQ&s=19

really?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382794.msg63074850#msg63074850

I guess link is removed because it followed official CIA narrative? 

[paxmao]

Even Ukrainian own investigation concludes CIA sponsored nazis shoot their own people
at maidan, and not Yanukovich or Russians

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1717744385079890274?t=VKTlrQ_Z5q5BeZNHHEVoUQ&s=19

really?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382794.msg63074850#msg63074850

I guess link is removed because it followed official CIA narrative? 

Meanwhile, we have more movement along the dnipro river, quite a few landing operations by Ukraine while Ruzzia is trying to create a new Bhakmut in Avdiivka and loosing troops by the thousands, Ukraine is clearly exploring the option of having a bridgehead in the less defended areas of the east bank of the river. Movements near Andriivka that resulted in further small advances. The front in Robotyne is not as active.

Ukraine would do well concentrating more artillery near Avdiivka, it is worth every penny.