Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

There is definitely something happening neat the dnipro. I mean something that is not Ruzzis shelling a hospital and randomly killing civilians.

Yes...Ukraine is bringing light infantry over, without artillery and tank support, and Russians are massacring them
Gallipoli style

Quote of the day:

John Kirby: “You can't start planning for long-term support if you're at the end of your rope.  And in financing Ukraine we are coming to the end of the rope.  
Today we announced $200 million and we will continue to help Ukraine as much as we can, but it won’t be indefinitely.”

Sure... that must be it. Nothing to worry about then.

Oh... yes please, just place your hopes in the rope not being long enough and on Kirby saying the truth instead of something politically convenient. This is a list of people that were also counting on the US an NATO running out of rope. Somehow it turned out that the rope was long long long... and enough to hang them all.

   Georgy Malenkov, Nikolay Shvernik, Kliment Voroshilov, Nikita Khrushchev, Georgy Malenkov, Nikolai Bulganin, Kliment Voroshilov, Leonid Brezhnev, Anastas Mikoyan   Khrushchev   Alexei Kosygin, .... Nikolai Tikhonov   Anastas Mikoyan,...

BTW, have you got any serious link that or is one of those, you know,... those things you sometimes say here and there...
For BA, who does not get it, these are the Premiers of the USSR. There was rope a plenty an propaganda eventually catches up with reality.

[1714769434]

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[be.open]

There is definitely something happening neat the dnipro. I mean something that is not Ruzzis shelling a hospital and randomly killing civilians.

Yes...Ukraine is bringing light infantry over, without artillery and tank support, and Russians are massacring them
Gallipoli style

Quote of the day:

John Kirby: “You can't start planning for long-term support if you're at the end of your rope.  And in financing Ukraine we are coming to the end of the rope.  
Today we announced $200 million and we will continue to help Ukraine as much as we can, but it won’t be indefinitely.”

Sure... that must be it. Nothing to worry about then.

Oh... yes please, just place your hopes in the rope not being long enough and on Kirby saying the truth instead of something politically convenient. This is a list of people that were also counting on the US an NATO running out of rope. Somehow it turned out that the rope was long long long... and enough to hang them all.

Are you implying that Kirby lied?

These are damn hard times for Ukraine, Congress voted for a temporary budget to avoid a shutdown, the Senate supported it, which means Biden will sign it too. Now the next moment when it will be possible to even simply raise the issue of allocating US money to Ukraine will come no earlier than in two months. Meanwhile, Russia entered Avdeevka from the north and south simultaneously. Are you still concerned about the situation near the Dnieper?

[paxmao]

There is definitely something happening neat the dnipro. I mean something that is not Ruzzis shelling a hospital and randomly killing civilians.

Yes...Ukraine is bringing light infantry over, without artillery and tank support, and Russians are massacring them
Gallipoli style

Quote of the day:

John Kirby: “You can't start planning for long-term support if you're at the end of your rope.  And in financing Ukraine we are coming to the end of the rope.  
Today we announced $200 million and we will continue to help Ukraine as much as we can, but it won’t be indefinitely.”

Sure... that must be it. Nothing to worry about then.

Oh... yes please, just place your hopes in the rope not being long enough and on Kirby saying the truth instead of something politically convenient. This is a list of people that were also counting on the US an NATO running out of rope. Somehow it turned out that the rope was long long long... and enough to hang them all.

Are you implying that Kirby lied?

These are damn hard times for Ukraine, Congress voted for a temporary budget to avoid a shutdown, the Senate supported it, which means Biden will sign it too. Now the next moment when it will be possible to even simply raise the issue of allocating US money to Ukraine will come no earlier than in two months. Meanwhile, Russia entered Avdeevka from the north and south simultaneously. Are you still concerned about the situation near the Dnieper?

Are you implying that I am implying?

Look, we agree on this one, these are very hard times for Ukraine an this is the moment that will define if the US is a trustable ally that can hold their ground on foreign politics at least for once. The US walked on many in the past, but there's no way the US reputation as a nation of power is undone if they decide to back-off.  The US choice, but choices have long term consequences and costs.

I am not concerned about the situation in the dnieper, why should I?

Ruzzia has not entered Avdiivka yet, however the most interesting spot of Avdiivka is not in the ruins, but in the heights and in fortifications. I wonder how many Ruzzian soldiers and equipment may die to get a foothold in Zenit.

Avdiivka is not under Ruzzian control, but it is obvious that if the psychos decide to "spend" 50.000 soldiers lives and another 300 tanks there, they might take it.

[DaRude]

Feels like there will be some official release soon, so to minimize it's impact they decided to front run it by leaking some story and pinning September 2022 sabotage attack on a scapegoat who conveniently has already been arrested since April 2023 for acting without permission in another operation. Also, as an added benefit, the story throws Zaluzhnyy under the bus while protecting Zelensky (makes it sound he doesn't control what's going on in his own country). More ammo to dismiss Ukraine's top general Zaluzhnyy for saying that Ukraine is in a stalemate now.

Or maybe the reporting is accurate and a small group of Ukrainians went rogue and blew up the pipeline without zelenskys approval or knowledge.

The officer took orders from more senior Ukrainian officials, who ultimately reported to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, said people familiar with how the operation was carried out.
...
In June 2022, the Dutch military intelligence agency, the MIVD, obtained information that Ukraine might be planning to attack Nord Stream. Officials at the CIA relayed to Zaluzhny through an intermediary that the United States opposed such an operation, according to people familiar with those conversations.

You really think that a story that after receiving billions in military aid, apparently there are rogue groups in Ukraine's top military command that freely smuggled kilos of high explosives back into EU, blew up EU critical civilian infrastructure, and Ukraine has no control or even knowledge of them, really sounds more believable than the story about aliens?



If after warning of such event from EU intelligence agency, they would've found a colonel (just second away from highest-ranking military officer) in Russia’s special operations forces was integral to the sabotage of NS as claimed by people familiar with planning, and after jailing him since April, Russia would just claim ignorance and put blame on a rogue group, you would totally believe that too, right?

I guess next we should all expect full cooperation from Ukraine and extradition of everyone involved to Germany so they could be interrogated and stand the trial there, but something telling me that aliens will prevent that from happening too.

...

...

Enough of the fakes   https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine/location?secret=unhcrrestricted as of 31 December 2022 1.275.315 refugees from Ukraine went to Russia. We've already been through this, so you're well aware and can't claim ignorance, yet you continue to post fakes and pictures with some pretty colors. Stop it already



[moderator's note: multiple posts have been merged]

Really? You speaking of fakes??? The king of the walltexting and irrelevance? Please enlighten us, where did Ukrainians fled?

Because your map shows how Ruzzia says that lots of Ukrainian fled there, it is there in your own source when you bother to read (what international observation do you think that has? do you think that Ruzzia may... you know... have some incentives to "record in an imaginative way" the number of Ukrainians in Ruzzia and Beloruzzia?

This is what your own source says about the information provided:

Statistics are compiled mainly from data provided by authorities. For statistical purposes, UNHCR uses the term refugees generically, referring to all individuals having left Ukraine due to the war. UNHCR’s means of verification and level of access to refugees from Ukraine varies by country.

- TRANSLATION: do not believe shit of what comes from Ruzzia, but we cannot say that openly.

In your considered opinion, what kind of access do you think Ruzzia gives to the people preparing these reports? You cannot even read your own sources and interpret or be critic about an information as simple as this, yet is enough for you to call "fake" of course ,but your credibility on that is down the drain anyway - just your other major in Troll School along oversized pictures, wall-texting and missing the point - you have shown mastery on the skills here, your handlers must be proud.

Furthermore Have you also noticed where it says that Ruzzia gives their number of total Ukrainian living in Ruzzia under ANY status? Have you noticed that they have no data on border crossings? Have you noticed that even Ruzzia says only 65400 (curiously round number uh??) are refugees? The figure could include almost anything! Even people in the fake-publics of donbas, people living in there since 40 years ago, people who have a granma in Ukraine... .

You should try tweeter... it is much easy to smear in short sentences.

Look up which country has the largest Ukrainian diaspora, with which country Ukrainians had the most transnational marriages, look at the dates on your picture (only one week! Feb. 24 - Mar. 3), finally look at the following
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60555472
So stop spreading fakes!

[paxmao]

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...

...

Enough of the fakes   https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine/location?secret=unhcrrestricted as of 31 December 2022 1.275.315 refugees from Ukraine went to Russia. We've already been through this, so you're well aware and can't claim ignorance, yet you continue to post fakes and pictures with some pretty colors. Stop it already



[moderator's note: multiple posts have been merged]

Really? You speaking of fakes??? The king of the walltexting and irrelevance? Please enlighten us, where did Ukrainians fled?

Because your map shows how Ruzzia says that lots of Ukrainian fled there, it is there in your own source when you bother to read (what international observation do you think that has? do you think that Ruzzia may... you know... have some incentives to "record in an imaginative way" the number of Ukrainians in Ruzzia and Beloruzzia?

This is what your own source says about the information provided:

Statistics are compiled mainly from data provided by authorities. For statistical purposes, UNHCR uses the term refugees generically, referring to all individuals having left Ukraine due to the war. UNHCR’s means of verification and level of access to refugees from Ukraine varies by country.

- TRANSLATION: do not believe shit of what comes from Ruzzia, but we cannot say that openly.
[...]

Look up which country has the largest Ukrainian diaspora, with which country Ukrainians had the most transnational marriages, look at the dates on your picture (only one week! Feb. 24 - Mar. 3), finally look at the following
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60555472
So stop spreading fakes!

Saying fake does not make it fake. You stated that I gave wrong information on the destination of Ukrainian refugees, you based you accusation on a report that clearly states that the data is given by the countries - Ruzzia giving data about Ukrainians in Ruzzia. Hail to the king of oversized pictures, meaningless walltext and random accusations - and it is not the first time.. more like it is everytime you write

And now you move the goalposts to say something completely different - that there are many Ukrainians living in Ruzzia. Sorry you cannot escape your own shit this time: you are a declared troll and a shame for your handlers in the trollfarm.

Seriously, try Tweeter (now X) they are super happy to have people like you.



https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk-60652914&psig=AOvVaw2kwa2SWzxRpWsyBaf_Ow3o&ust=1700271783887000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBQQjhxqFwoTCPDjyY_0yYIDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE

Even the sources that give some credit to Ruzzia's data still declare more refugees going elsewhere:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-ukrainian-refugee-destinations/

[tvbcof]

...


https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk-60652914&psig=AOvVaw2kwa2SWzxRpWsyBaf_Ow3o&ust=1700271783887000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBQQjhxqFwoTCPDjyY_0yYIDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE
...

Looks reasonable as long as 'Ukrainian' is defined as someone who loves Bandera and the nazi's, and those who who are not in a region where people voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation.

Except for a thin rind where Russia is limiting the fighting to (as I predicted they would) most newly minted Russian Federation areas are looking pretty nice and people are enjoying their 'new normal' under Russian protection.  At least that's what the Russian propaganda shows.  In the areas of Ukraine which are still under control of the West and their coke-head puppet, not so much.  Looks like a genuine nightmare and it's not surprising to see those subject to the depopulation (via death-by-Russian or otherwise) fleeing in droves.

[be.open]

It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat 

[paxmao]

It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat  

I have seen it and I agree. We should end up magical thinking a be much more practical about putting the right tools in Ukrainian hands, not for a "defeat" whatever that means to you, but for a durable peace - which is a win in fact.  

I hope the US understands well that the cost of containment is higher that providing what is needed here and now: The more you remove the high-tech difficult to replace equipment, have the black sea fleet reduced and in clear understanding of the vulnerabilities, Polish and Ukrainian shipyards closed and hopefully next year some kills of difficult to replace Ruzzi-Air assets, the cheaper will the "containment" stage be... who know, maybe the containment will eventually become the "disintegration" and "de-Putinification" phase.

A durable peace requires that the price to pay to attack Ukraine is well understood and exceeds any possible gain or strategic benefit. That requires an Ukraine with sharp teeth and pointy spikes. I am ok with the current self-demilitarisation of Ruzzia. I wish I could be done without de-populating also, but it seems that the pyschos in the army insist in putting the Ruzzi soldiers in front of the tank, to protect it.

For the next year, Ukraine will be testing the F-16, which in itself is not much of a novelty, but it is perfect for carrying air-to-airs. Even a limited supply of Meteor missiles would cause irreplaceable loses to the Ruzzi "Aerospatial" forces. Step by step if need be.

Have you seen the fireworks at Volgograd?

https://t.me/in_factum/19616

[Bushdark]

There is definitely something happening neat the dnipro. I mean something that is not Ruzzis shelling a hospital and randomly killing civilians.

Yes...Ukraine is bringing light infantry over, without artillery and tank support, and Russians are massacring them
Gallipoli style

Quote of the day:

John Kirby: “You can't start planning for long-term support if you're at the end of your rope.  And in financing Ukraine we are coming to the end of the rope.  
Today we announced $200 million and we will continue to help Ukraine as much as we can, but it won’t be indefinitely.”

The Ukraine government are now seeing the reality and I think is the best time for them to think twice and put and end to this war negotiating with the Russia government. The Russia soldiers had done large havoc on the Ukrainian soil and if this war is not stopped, I think they would have to regret it in a long time from now. Ukraine does not have the capability to continue this war and things need to be settled or the entire country might crumble. The concentration of the American government is on Israel now which is affecting the Ukrainian boast to continue the war.

[DaRude]

...

...

...

Enough of the fakes   https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine/location?secret=unhcrrestricted as of 31 December 2022 1.275.315 refugees from Ukraine went to Russia. We've already been through this, so you're well aware and can't claim ignorance, yet you continue to post fakes and pictures with some pretty colors. Stop it already



[moderator's note: multiple posts have been merged]

Really? You speaking of fakes??? The king of the walltexting and irrelevance? Please enlighten us, where did Ukrainians fled?

Because your map shows how Ruzzia says that lots of Ukrainian fled there, it is there in your own source when you bother to read (what international observation do you think that has? do you think that Ruzzia may... you know... have some incentives to "record in an imaginative way" the number of Ukrainians in Ruzzia and Beloruzzia?

This is what your own source says about the information provided:

Statistics are compiled mainly from data provided by authorities. For statistical purposes, UNHCR uses the term refugees generically, referring to all individuals having left Ukraine due to the war. UNHCR’s means of verification and level of access to refugees from Ukraine varies by country.

- TRANSLATION: do not believe shit of what comes from Ruzzia, but we cannot say that openly.
[...]

Look up which country has the largest Ukrainian diaspora, with which country Ukrainians had the most transnational marriages, look at the dates on your picture (only one week! Feb. 24 - Mar. 3), finally look at the following
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60555472
So stop spreading fakes!

Saying fake does not make it fake. You stated that I gave wrong information on the destination of Ukrainian refugees, you based you accusation on a report that clearly states that the data is given by the countries - Ruzzia giving data about Ukrainians in Ruzzia. Hail to the king of oversized pictures, meaningless walltext and random accusations - and it is not the first time.. more like it is everytime you write

And now you move the goalposts to say something completely different - that there are many Ukrainians living in Ruzzia. Sorry you cannot escape your own shit this time: you are a declared troll and a shame for your handlers in the trollfarm.

Seriously, try Tweeter (now X) they are super happy to have people like you.



https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk-60652914&psig=AOvVaw2kwa2SWzxRpWsyBaf_Ow3o&ust=1700271783887000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBQQjhxqFwoTCPDjyY_0yYIDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE

Even the sources that give some credit to Ruzzia's data still declare more refugees going elsewhere:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-ukrainian-refugee-destinations/

This is just hilarious, so to back up your claim and undermine mine, you indirectly cite same source as me [Source: UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)] just from 20 month ago, only 10 days into the conflict. So you believe data from UNHCR on 7 March 2022 but not on 14 November 2023  Swing...and a miss  
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60652914 Date: 7 March 2022

Furthermore, even your second link https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-ukrainian-refugee-destinations/ clearly shows 2,852,395 Ukrainian refugees went to Russia and state:The largest share of refugees at 35% have actually gone directly to Russia.

As far as your claim of moving the goal posts, I was just trying to logically explain the data. If you had your family or your wife was from country X and you spoke that language, which country would you most likely run to if you had to?

There is definitely something happening neat the dnipro. I mean something that is not Ruzzis shelling a hospital and randomly killing civilians.

Yes...Ukraine is bringing light infantry over, without artillery and tank support, and Russians are massacring them
Gallipoli style

Quote of the day:

John Kirby: “You can't start planning for long-term support if you're at the end of your rope.  And in financing Ukraine we are coming to the end of the rope.  
Today we announced $200 million and we will continue to help Ukraine as much as we can, but it won’t be indefinitely.”

Sure... that must be it. Nothing to worry about then.

Oh... yes please, just place your hopes in the rope not being long enough and on Kirby saying the truth instead of something politically convenient. This is a list of people that were also counting on the US an NATO running out of rope. Somehow it turned out that the rope was long long long... and enough to hang them all.

Are you implying that Kirby lied?

These are damn hard times for Ukraine, Congress voted for a temporary budget to avoid a shutdown, the Senate supported it, which means Biden will sign it too. Now the next moment when it will be possible to even simply raise the issue of allocating US money to Ukraine will come no earlier than in two months. Meanwhile, Russia entered Avdeevka from the north and south simultaneously. Are you still concerned about the situation near the Dnieper?

Are you implying that I am implying?

Look, we agree on this one, these are very hard times for Ukraine an this is the moment that will define if the US is a trustable ally that can hold their ground on foreign politics at least for once. The US walked on many in the past, but there's no way the US reputation as a nation of power is undone if they decide to back-off.  The US choice, but choices have long term consequences and costs.

I am not concerned about the situation in the dnieper, why should I?

Ruzzia has not entered Avdiivka yet, however the most interesting spot of Avdiivka is not in the ruins, but in the heights and in fortifications. I wonder how many Ruzzian soldiers and equipment may die to get a foothold in Zenit.

Avdiivka is not under Ruzzian control, but it is obvious that if the psychos decide to "spend" 50.000 soldiers lives and another 300 tanks there, they might take it.

Only 41% support sending weapons to Ukraine (you can imagine the spread between democrats and republicans).

Reuters/Ipsos poll November 15, 2023:
41% of people answering the poll said they backed sending weapons to Ukraine in its fight against a nearly 21-month-old Russian invasion, compared to 32% who were opposed and the rest unsure. When it came to Ukraine, support for sending weapons was stronger among Democrats.

Even if US politicians approve more funding to Ukraine for another month or two (as i fully expect) what will happen after that when population just doesn't support it? Any example in history you can think of where with time support for funding war in US grew? But even if we assume the current president and his party just decides to totally ignore the will of the people, what do you think will happen on the election day in 12months?

[paxmao]

...

Only 41% support sending weapons to Ukraine (you can imagine the spread between democrats and republicans).

Reuters/Ipsos poll November 15, 2023:
41% of people answering the poll said they backed sending weapons to Ukraine in its fight against a nearly 21-month-old Russian invasion, compared to 32% who were opposed and the rest unsure. When it came to Ukraine, support for sending weapons was stronger among Democrats.

Even if US politicians approve more funding to Ukraine for another month or two (as i fully expect) what will happen after that when population just doesn't support it? Any example in history you can think of where with time support for funding war in US grew? But even if we assume the current president and his party just decides to totally ignore the will of the people, what do you think will happen on the election day in 12months?

Well then I guess you have to put your hopes in a Republican win, because if let's say - just as approximation exercise - all Republicans are against sending support then around 80% of democrats are in favour to get to around a 40% total... Looks to me like a democrat government would continue sending aid. To be honest, a Republican government may easily find a excuse to keep up the support to some extent.

About the republican win, Trump is a possible winner, however there is an Elephant in the room - he is undergoing several trials (more info below, there is a thread in the forum for this, so I am only mentioning the basics to avoid off-topic walltexts by you-know-who.

2 felony counts (including one conspiracy count) of obstructing an official proceeding under 18 U.S.C. § 1512 | 1 felony count of conspiracy to defraud the United States under 18 U.S.C. § 371 | 1 felony count of conspiracy against rights under 18 U.S.C. § 241

Many of Trump supporters and donors are really trying very hard to ignore this - even on the grounds that Trump can "pardon himself". This is far from being a certainty, it is more in the area of wishful thinking.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#:~:text=Former%20President%20Donald%20Trump%20has,impeding%20efforts%20to%20retrieve%20them.

... In New York, he faces 34 felony counts in connection with hush money payments to a porn star. In Florida, he faces 40 felony counts for hoarding classified documents and impeding efforts to retrieve them. In Washington, D.C., he faces four felony counts for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And in Georgia, he faces 13 felony counts for his election interference in that state.

Now the Republicans, could present another candidate last minute or try another coup-d'etat, but again, this is all but unclear. Since you like the polls, you may also like this one:

This mixed bag is hardly catastrophic for Trump. But if he is convicted of a felony, the polling suggests it would be very bad for him. A Quinnipiac poll back in August found that 68 percent of people think someone convicted of a felony shouldn’t be eligible to be president. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that that 45 percent of Republicans say they wouldn’t vote for him if he were convicted of a felony by a jury.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/09/trump-legal-troubles-2024-campaign-column-00126180

With the country so divided, a felony conviction may be all it is needed. And looks likely.

[BADecker]

Oh, good. Ukraine is going to get help for the cold, winter months - help from Germany. What? Didn't Ukraine and the US destroy the Nord Stream pipeline that supplied Germany with fuel? Where is Germany going to get the where-with-all to 'heat' Ukraine? Isn't Germany having enough trouble simply heating its own people?

Something goofy is going on with this whole war. I wonder what it is.


Germany to provide “winter protection” to Ukraine despite reports that Kyiv bombed Nord Stream pipelines


https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-11-17-germany-to-provide-winter-protection-to-ukraine.html
In a meeting with European Union foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday, Germany signified its plan to expand and increase its support for Ukraine, especially in the coming year, but did not fully disclose specifics on how to go about it. It only shared a few details in giving Kyiv "winter protection" in the months ahead.

According to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Berlin is planning to send Kyiv another U.S.-made Patriot air-defense system and electricity generators as part of the so-called "protection umbrella" scheme for the coming cold months.

She urged her fellow ministers to not focus solely on the recent hostilities in the Middle East as there is still a need to "face geopolitical challenges" in Europe as well. She warned Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime that Moscow should not expect the bloc's reduction in aid to Kyiv as a result of the ongoing "dramatic situation worldwide." "We will not only continue our support for Ukraine. We will continue to expand and increase it," she asserted.

Germany's Bild tabloid reported over the weekend that the governing coalition in Germany is seeking to increase military aid to Ukraine from $4.27 billion to $8.54 billion in 2024 alone. The parliament's budget committee is expected to review and potentially approve the plan at some point this week, according to the paper. As per Germany's Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Berlin is currently Ukraine's second-largest military aid donor. Having spent some $18.2 billion providing military assistance to Kyiv, Germany comes next, after the U.S., which had spent around $45 billion, the institute's data showed. Also, the data on Ukrainian military aid indicated that Berlin will spend $5.76 billion this year on arming and training the Ukrainian troops, which went up from just $2.13 billion in 2022.

Meanwhile, critics question this "goodwill" to Kyiv despite reports of the latter's alleged involvement in the bombing of Nord Stream pipelines, which had a devastating effect on Berlin's economy. Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who has deep ties with Kyiv's intelligence services, was reported by the Washington Post to have played a central role in the bombing of the natural gas pipelines last year.

...

Western arms not helping Ukraine, end up in Talibans’ hands
...

[paxmao]

Unfortunately, it seems that Ruzzia is massing troops to attack in Vulhedar direction. Last time they tried, the loss of tanks and mechanised means was above anything seen to that date, so there may be two cases: they will try to meat-wave it or they will try to do the same thing with likely the same results. We will see how this turns out in a few weeks.

[BADecker]

Unfortunately, it seems that Ruzzia is massing troops to attack in Vulhedar direction. Last time they tried, the loss of tanks and mechanised means was above anything seen to that date, so there may be two cases: they will try to meat-wave it or they will try to do the same thing with likely the same results. We will see how this turns out in a few weeks.

Maybe they are simply going there to retrieve some of that lost metal, and even parts. They would smelt it down to make new war equipment out of it. Might be cheaper than digging new ore out of the ground.

[paxmao]

This is a well know republican comparing Putin with Hitler.

https://youtu.be/AEmGLZ95iUc?t=536

He must have read my old posts saying exactly the same: first taking the power, destroying the institutions, removing any opposition, brainwashing the population, attacking for the "unification of the Ruzzians", pan-slavic style, then justifying the murdering of civil population, ...

I mean, the comparison is there, it only fails in the fact that this was totally unmotivated by the economy and the treaties of WW I.

[DaRude]

...

Only 41% support sending weapons to Ukraine (you can imagine the spread between democrats and republicans).

Reuters/Ipsos poll November 15, 2023:
41% of people answering the poll said they backed sending weapons to Ukraine in its fight against a nearly 21-month-old Russian invasion, compared to 32% who were opposed and the rest unsure. When it came to Ukraine, support for sending weapons was stronger among Democrats.

Even if US politicians approve more funding to Ukraine for another month or two (as i fully expect) what will happen after that when population just doesn't support it? Any example in history you can think of where with time support for funding war in US grew? But even if we assume the current president and his party just decides to totally ignore the will of the people, what do you think will happen on the election day in 12months?

Well then I guess you have to put your hopes in a Republican win, because if let's say - just as approximation exercise - all Republicans are against sending support then around 80% of democrats are in favour to get to around a 40% total... Looks to me like a democrat government would continue sending aid. To be honest, a Republican government may easily find a excuse to keep up the support to some extent.

About the republican win, Trump is a possible winner, however there is an Elephant in the room - he is undergoing several trials (more info below, there is a thread in the forum for this, so I am only mentioning the basics to avoid off-topic walltexts by you-know-who.

2 felony counts (including one conspiracy count) of obstructing an official proceeding under 18 U.S.C. § 1512 | 1 felony count of conspiracy to defraud the United States under 18 U.S.C. § 371 | 1 felony count of conspiracy against rights under 18 U.S.C. § 241

Many of Trump supporters and donors are really trying very hard to ignore this - even on the grounds that Trump can "pardon himself". This is far from being a certainty, it is more in the area of wishful thinking.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#:~:text=Former%20President%20Donald%20Trump%20has,impeding%20efforts%20to%20retrieve%20them.

... In New York, he faces 34 felony counts in connection with hush money payments to a porn star. In Florida, he faces 40 felony counts for hoarding classified documents and impeding efforts to retrieve them. In Washington, D.C., he faces four felony counts for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And in Georgia, he faces 13 felony counts for his election interference in that state.

Now the Republicans, could present another candidate last minute or try another coup-d'etat, but again, this is all but unclear. Since you like the polls, you may also like this one:

This mixed bag is hardly catastrophic for Trump. But if he is convicted of a felony, the polling suggests it would be very bad for him. A Quinnipiac poll back in August found that 68 percent of people think someone convicted of a felony shouldn’t be eligible to be president. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that that 45 percent of Republicans say they wouldn’t vote for him if he were convicted of a felony by a jury.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/09/trump-legal-troubles-2024-campaign-column-00126180

With the country so divided, a felony conviction may be all it is needed. And looks likely.

Forty-one percent of Americans overall say the U.S. is doing too much, which has risen from 24% in August 2022 and 29% in June 2023. Thirty-three percent, down from 43% in June, say the U.S. is doing the right amount, while 25% believe the U.S. isn’t doing enough.
...
Both Republicans (62%) and independents (44%) increasingly see the U.S. as doing too much to support Ukraine

Supporting Ukraine is just unpopular and (unsurprisingly) getting even more unpopular with time. Even if majority of democrat fraction still supports sending aid for now, it's not like Biden can totally disregard the other side and overall majority. Even if Biden does win, don't forget that there's also congress that approves the budget, which as we see now currently didn't approve additional aid to Ukraine. Again, look at literally EVERY single prolonged conflict and look at levels of US support vs. time, nothing new here, that's why everyone says that it'll benefit Russia.

As far as Trump, I think not letting him run is probably the worst option. Like it or not, a lot of people fanatically like him. And I'm sure everyone remembers what happened when he actually lost elections. Now imagine what would happen if he's the most popular candidate, yet they wouldn't even allow him to run on a technicality. Yeah I'm sure his supports will just calmly accept unpopular Biden as their president then   And don't forget, DeSantis the second in line republican after Trump is also against sending more aid to Ukraine.

Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations

Hajo Funke is Professor Emeritus for political sciences of the Otto-Suhr-Institute/ Freie University Berlin

General (ret.) Harald Kujat was the highest ranging German officer of the Bundeswehr and at NATO
...
Just one month after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come very close to an agreement for a ceasefire and to an outline for a comprehensive peace solution to the conflict.
...
Contrary to Western interpretations, Ukraine and Russia agreed at the time that the planned NATO expansion was the reason for the war. They therefore focused their peace negotiations on Ukraine’s neutrality and its renunciation of NATO membership. In return, Ukraine would have retained its territorial integrity except for Crimea.

There is little doubt that these peace negotiations failed due to resistance from NATO and in particular from the USA and the UK. The reasons is that such a peace agreement would have been tantamount to a defeat for NATO, an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and thus an end to the dream of a unipolar world dominated by the USA.
...
The failure of the peace negotiations in March 2022 led to dangerous intensification of the war that has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people...Not only Russia, but also NATO and the West bear a heavy share of the blame for this disaster.

Ukraine’s negotiating position today is far worse than it was in March 2022. Ukraine will now lose large parts of its territory.

The blocking of the peace negotiations at that time has harmed everyone: Russia and Europe – but above all the people of Ukraine, who are paying with their blood the price for the ambitions of the major powers and will probably get nothing in return.
...
However, instead of ending the war through negotiations as Ukrainian President Zelensky and his government appeared to have wanted, he ultimately bowed to pressures from some Western powers to abandon a negotiated solution. Western powers wanted this war to continue in the hope to break Russia.

...In the conversation in the Kremlin, Putin, Bennett [ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER] said, had made some substantial concessions, in particular, he had renounced his original wartime goal of demilitarizing Ukraine. … .In return, the Ukrainian president agreed to renounce joining NATO – a position he also repeated publicly a short time later.
...
In the interview, Bennett explained further: “I had the impression at the time that both sides were very interested in a ceasefire (…). According to Bennett, a cease-fire was within reach at that time, and both sides were prepared to make considerable concessions…. But Britain and the U.S., in particular, wanted this peace process to end and set their sights on a continuation of the war.” (Ibid)
...
Like Bennet, also he [former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder] came to the conclusion that the reason why these peace negotiations were abandoned was because the Americans obstructed them. He said: “At the peace negotiations in March 2022 in Istanbul with Rustem Umerov (then security advisor to Zelensky, now Ukrainian defense minister), the Ukrainians did not agree to peace because they were not allowed to. They first had to ask the Americans about everything they discussed,” and continued: “But at the end (of the peace negotiations) nothing happened. My impression was that nothing could happen because everything else was decided in Washington. That was fatal.”

The Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, who organized the Istanbul meeting at the time, had previously made similar comments. In an interview with CNN Turk on April 20, 2022, he said: “Some NATO states wanted the Ukraine conflict to continue in order to weaken Russia.”
...
But this initial support quickly turned sour, with NATO opposing any such negotiations before Russia doesn’t withdraws all its troops from Ukrainian territories. This, in fact, killed all negotiations. Michael von der Schulenburg, former UN Assistant Secretary-General (ASG) in UN peace missions, writes that “NATO had already decided at a special summit on March 24, 2022, not to support these peace negotiations (between Ukraine and Russia).” (Cf. Michael von der Schulenburg: UN Charter: Negotiations! In: Emma, March 6, 2023). The US president had flown in especially for this special summit to Brussels. Obviously, peace as negotiated by the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegations was not in the interest of some NATO countries.

AT FIRST ZELENSKY STICKS TO THE OUTCOME OF THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
 
“As late as March 27, 2022, Zelensky had shown the courage to defend the results of the Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in public before Russian journalists – and this despite the fact that NATO had already decided at a special summit on March 24, 2022, not to support these peace negotiations.” (Ibid)
...
The Washington Post reported April 5 that in NATO, continuing the war is preferred to a cease-fire and negotiated settlement: “[yellow=red,2,300]For some in NATO, it’s better for Ukrainians to keep fighting and dying[/glow] than to achieve a peace that comes too soon or at too high a price for Kiev and the rest of Europe.” Zelensky, he said, should “keep fighting until Russia is completely defeated.”

BORIS JOHNSON’S MESSAGE TO UKRAINIANS ON APRIL 9, 2022: WE MUST CONTINUE THE WAR

On April 9, 2022, Boris Johnson arrived unannounced in Kiev and told the Ukrainian president that the West was not ready to end the war. According to Britain’s Guardian on April 28, PM Johnson had “instructed” Ukrainian President Zelensky “not to make any concessions to Putin”:
...
Johnson brought two simple messages with him to Kiev. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. The second is that even if Ukraine is willing to sign some agreements with Putin on guarantees, but that the collective West is not.
...
Johnson took the position that the collective West, which as recently as February had suggested that Zelensky should surrender and flee, now feels that Putin is not really as powerful as they had previously imagined. Moreover, there is an opportunity to put pressure on him. And the West wants to take it.”

...
The Neue Züricher Zeitung (NZZ) reported on April 12 that the British government under Johnson is counting on a Ukrainian military victory. Conservative Member of the House of Commons Alicia Kearns said, “We’d rather arm the Ukrainians to the teeth than give Putin a success.” British Foreign Secretary (and later Prime Minister) Liz Truss professed in a keynote speech that “victory for Ukraine (…) is a strategic imperative for us all and therefore military support must be massively expanded”. Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins warned: “Liz Truss risks inflaming the war in Ukraine for her own ambitions.”
...
Following his second visit to Kiev on April 25, 2022, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. wants to use the opportunity to permanently weaken Russia militarily and economically in the wake of the Ukraine war. According to the New York Times, the U.S. government is no longer concerned with a fight over control of Ukraine, but with a fight against Moscow in the wake of a new Cold War.
...
In his announcement of the partial mobilization, Putin stated on September 21, 2022:

“I would like to make this public for the first time today. After the start of the special military operation, especially after the talks in Istanbul, the Kiev representatives expressed quite positive views on our proposals. These proposals were mainly about ensuring Russia’s security and interests. But a peaceful solution obviously did not suit the West, which is why Kiev, after agreeing on some compromises, was actually ordered to nullify all these agreements.”
...
This makes the Western intervention, which prevented an early end to the war, even more disastrous for Ukraine. Russia’s responsibility for the attack, which was contrary to international law, is not relativized by the fact that responsibility for the grave consequences that Ukraine’s Western supporters that ensued must also be attributed to the states that demanded the continuation of the war.

I know it's too long and most won't read but i feel it's very important to get to the root cause of the conflict and read the whole thing. Also published here https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/how-the-chance-was-lost-for-a-peace-settlement-of-the-ukraine-war/

It's like creating a monster that gets out of your control. US seems to now want to backtrack and find a way out of this, but its Ukrainians who have been brainwashed a bit too much, now are the ones who are not ready to stop the bloodshed. Aren't you still interested in weakening Russia, cause we all are totally ready to die for that   how do you stop that

[paxmao]

...

Only 41% support sending weapons to Ukraine (you can imagine the spread between democrats and republicans).

Reuters/Ipsos poll November 15, 2023:
41% of people answering the poll said they backed sending weapons to Ukraine in its fight against a nearly 21-month-old Russian invasion, compared to 32% who were opposed and the rest unsure. When it came to Ukraine, support for sending weapons was stronger among Democrats.

Even if US politicians approve more funding to Ukraine for another month or two (as i fully expect) what will happen after that when population just doesn't support it? Any example in history you can think of where with time support for funding war in US grew? But even if we assume the current president and his party just decides to totally ignore the will of the people, what do you think will happen on the election day in 12months?

Well then I guess you have to put your hopes in a Republican win, because if let's say - just as approximation exercise - all Republicans are against sending support then around 80% of democrats are in favour to get to around a 40% total... Looks to me like a democrat government would continue sending aid. To be honest, a Republican government may easily find a excuse to keep up the support to some extent.

About the republican win, Trump is a possible winner, however there is an Elephant in the room - he is undergoing several trials (more info below, there is a thread in the forum for this, so I am only mentioning the basics to avoid off-topic walltexts by you-know-who.

2 felony counts (including one conspiracy count) of obstructing an official proceeding under 18 U.S.C. § 1512 | 1 felony count of conspiracy to defraud the United States under 18 U.S.C. § 371 | 1 felony count of conspiracy against rights under 18 U.S.C. § 241

Many of Trump supporters and donors are really trying very hard to ignore this - even on the grounds that Trump can "pardon himself". This is far from being a certainty, it is more in the area of wishful thinking.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#:~:text=Former%20President%20Donald%20Trump%20has,impeding%20efforts%20to%20retrieve%20them.

... In New York, he faces 34 felony counts in connection with hush money payments to a porn star. In Florida, he faces 40 felony counts for hoarding classified documents and impeding efforts to retrieve them. In Washington, D.C., he faces four felony counts for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And in Georgia, he faces 13 felony counts for his election interference in that state.

Now the Republicans, could present another candidate last minute or try another coup-d'etat, but again, this is all but unclear. Since you like the polls, you may also like this one:

This mixed bag is hardly catastrophic for Trump. But if he is convicted of a felony, the polling suggests it would be very bad for him. A Quinnipiac poll back in August found that 68 percent of people think someone convicted of a felony shouldn’t be eligible to be president. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that that 45 percent of Republicans say they wouldn’t vote for him if he were convicted of a felony by a jury.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/09/trump-legal-troubles-2024-campaign-column-00126180

With the country so divided, a felony conviction may be all it is needed. And looks likely.

Forty-one percent of Americans overall say the U.S. is doing too much, which has risen from 24% in August 2022 and 29% in June 2023. Thirty-three percent, down from 43% in June, say the U.S. is doing the right amount, while 25% believe the U.S. isn’t doing enough.
...
Both Republicans (62%) and independents (44%) increasingly see the U.S. as doing too much to support Ukraine

... Even if majority of democrat fraction still supports sending aid for now, it's not like Biden can totally disregard the other side and overall majority. Even if Biden does win, don't forget that there's also congress that approves the budget, which as we see now currently didn't approve additional aid to Ukraine. Again, look at literally EVERY single prolonged conflict and look at levels of US support vs. time, nothing new here, that's why everyone says that it'll benefit Russia.

As far as Trump, I think not letting him run is probably the worst option. Like it or not, a lot of people fanatically like him. And I'm sure everyone remembers what happened when he actually lost elections. Now imagine what would happen if he's the most popular candidate, yet they wouldn't even allow him to run on a technicality. ...

A technicallity?? dude, the guy tried to overtake the government, in public, on TV, all recorded! In your loved Ruzzia he would be now a stain on an airplane wreckage, yet I did not speak of him not running, I spoke of him loosing if he is convicted and still runs.

It is unpopular among Republicans, democrats obviously support it. Your argument about not ignoring completely the other side is wishful thinking as US politics are today. Just try to put it the opposite way "Surely even if Trump wins he would not completely disregard people who support Ukraine" - does that sound credible to you, because it does not to me.

[Branko]

This is a well know republican comparing Putin with Hitler.

https://youtu.be/AEmGLZ95iUc?t=536

He must have read my old posts saying exactly the same: first taking the power, destroying the institutions, removing any opposition, brainwashing the population, attacking for the "unification of the Ruzzians", pan-slavic style, then justifying the murdering of civil population, ...

I mean, the comparison is there, it only fails in the fact that this was totally unmotivated by the economy and the treaties of WW I.

That is actually well known Russophobic clown

[paxmao]

This is a well know republican comparing Putin with Hitler.

https://youtu.be/AEmGLZ95iUc?t=536

He must have read my old posts saying exactly the same: first taking the power, destroying the institutions, removing any opposition, brainwashing the population, attacking for the "unification of the Ruzzians", pan-slavic style, then justifying the murdering of civil population, ...

I mean, the comparison is there, it only fails in the fact that this was totally unmotivated by the economy and the treaties of WW I.

That is actually well known Russophobic clown

If you say so... I mean, he is quite a high ranking Republican, you know, the people you are trusting to stop helping Ukraine?  Is not like a blogger or those "sources" you drop here from time to time. Russophobia, well that seems to be the go-to word for anything that is not favourable to Putin. Like when you shell the Ukrainian people you call them Nazis... etc. So that you do not have to really have any argument or reason.

Edited to add: Have you seen the fireworks in the Saki powerplant in Crimea?
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/48319

The soldiers or the missile forces that were celebrating in Kumachove cannot see them. The 300 of them have been hit by a HIMARS strike.

[Branko]

This is a well know republican comparing Putin with Hitler.

https://youtu.be/AEmGLZ95iUc?t=536

He must have read my old posts saying exactly the same: first taking the power, destroying the institutions, removing any opposition, brainwashing the population, attacking for the "unification of the Ruzzians", pan-slavic style, then justifying the murdering of civil population, ...

I mean, the comparison is there, it only fails in the fact that this was totally unmotivated by the economy and the treaties of WW I.

That is actually well known Russophobic clown

If you say so... I mean, he is quite a high ranking Republican, you know, the people you are trusting to stop helping Ukraine?  Is not like a blogger or those "sources" you drop here from time to time. Russophobia, well that seems to be the go-to word for anything that is not favourable to Putin. Like when you shell the Ukrainian people you call them Nazis... etc. So that you do not have to really have any argument or reason.

Edited to add: Have you seen the fireworks in the Saki powerplant in Crimea?
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/48319

The soldiers or the missile forces that were celebrating in Kumachove cannot see them. The 300 of them have been hit by a HIMARS strike.

Have you seen new Russian drones?

https://youtu.be/siLgXa44b60

https://t.me/militarysummary/5385