Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

Something peculiar is happening with the SUs airplanes lately. There is no official confirmation of what is happening or if there is a new system in place or an improvement of an existing system or perhaps a SAM battery placed near the frontline, but it seems that Ruzzia is losing planes beyond what you may expect by the usual trends. There may be something out there that has not been officially been "transferred to Ukraine".

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[DaRude]

...

handing out subscriptions for free unlimited Russian gas

LOL behold geopolitical expert again trying to make it sound as if Kremlin never tried to bribe western politicians or even entire countries with petrodollars and cheap gas... still not able to connect the dots on why this brilliant strategy didn't work though.

You need to work on your reading comprehension skills. Thought it was obvious, no? West/US has exponentially more resources and a global reserve currency, that's why they engaged in financial expansionism. Russia is not even in the same weight category on the financial field. That kept going until "west" got to Ukraine which Russia drew a red line at, and demanded a written reply to their security demands from US, think we all can guess what US wrote in that response (can't wait until it's declassified), so Russia switched to military engagement. Then in the beginning Russia again tried to negotiate peace but then Boris Johnson said that WE MUST CONTINUE THE WAR, and here we are. But just because Russia cannot compete globally on the financial field, doesn't mean they can't do it selectively, which i think they're doing rather successfully in Hungary now. Instead of challenging the whole block which would be a financial suicide, Russia just needs to send cookies to the weakest link from the block with a veto power. Now west is forced to apply yet another double standard, pay for Ukrainian army, politicians, civil servants, retirement fund, support Ukrainian currency but at the same time try to justify why Russia and China cannot do even half of that because...reasons.

The only thing obvious is that when you bullied someone in the playground and got your face bashed in, you would cry and complain that the other guy didn't play by your made up rules and/or turned out to be "not even in the same weight category". Your verbal gymnastics is impressive. However if you're trying to establish "new world order" or whatever putinists call it, then it follows from said gymnastics that you either miscalculated bigly or are just plain lying.

Richest country in the world, ruled by the greatest leader of all time, does not have enough resources to compete in the global markets or at least not suck horribly, and the lemmings still can't figure out why.

Technically we get a new world order every time any of the 200 countries change places. If Russia manages to stop it I believe this would be the first time western expansion is stopped with a force since Soviet Union.
*doesn't include Finland
  
It's hard to follow your allegory, but in essence the outcome of this conflict will have consequences one way or another. If after this is all over Ukraine will transition to western sphere with NATO bases, then Putin will pay the consequences, in essence he miscalculated and will have to answer for that to his people and his generals. Just as if Ukraine will stay under Russian sphere, Zelenskiy will have to answer for loosing so many souls and not ending this earlier. West as usual is in a no-loose position, but they are still paying indirectly by radicals/nationalists coming to power in EU and overall weakening and possible breakup of EU (no free lunch with escalations). It works both ways, of course both sides will try to come up with some justifications for their failings but at this point too much blood has been spilled for anyone to care for excuses on either side.

[be.open]

Something peculiar is happening with the SUs airplanes lately. There is no official confirmation of what is happening or if there is a new system in place or an improvement of an existing system or perhaps a SAM battery placed near the frontline, but it seems that Ruzzia is losing planes beyond what you may expect by the usual trends. There may be something out there that has not been officially been "transferred to Ukraine".

Are you having mental wet dreams again? This is doubly funny, considering that Ukraine literally lost half of its combat aircraft fleet in just a couple of months (after Russia successfully modernized its radar reconnaissance aircraft), and the issue of transferring F16 fighters to Ukraine was put on pause after the victory in the Netherlands of the far-right opponent of military aid to Ukraine.

How are the crossings of the Dnieper going? Do the Ukrainian marines feel good at the Krynki bridgehead?

[Branko]

Something peculiar is happening with the SUs airplanes lately. There is no official confirmation of what is happening or if there is a new system in place or an improvement of an existing system or perhaps a SAM battery placed near the frontline, but it seems that Ruzzia is losing planes beyond what you may expect by the usual trends. There may be something out there that has not been officially been "transferred to Ukraine".

Are you having mental wet dreams again? This is doubly funny, considering that Ukraine literally lost half of its combat aircraft fleet in just a couple of months (after Russia successfully modernized its radar reconnaissance aircraft), and the issue of transferring F16 fighters to Ukraine was put on pause after the victory in the Netherlands of the far-right opponent of military aid to Ukraine.

How are the crossings of the Dnieper going? Do the Ukrainian marines feel good at the Krynki bridgehead?

It seems Ukrainians are remaking Gallipoli there

https://youtu.be/UclsBepOfm4?t=205

[BADecker]

Why doesn't Zelensky simply capitulate, and surrender... rather than continuing with the lies? Personally, I don't think he has a choice. The US military is controlling his actions. If he surrendered before they wanted him to, he would be assassinated, and somebody just as bad would be stuck in his spot.


Zelensky ADMITS Ukraine’s counteroffensive HAS FAILED


https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-12-07-zelensky-admits-ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-has-failed.html
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that his country's much-publicized counteroffensive against Russia has failed.

In an interview with the Associated Press, Zelensky gave what the media outlet described as a "frank appraisal" of the summer's counteroffensive that resulted in very limited gains and no significant breakthroughs. (Related: Ukrainian frontlines are COLLAPSING, Russian forces ADVANCING on all fronts.)

Since the beginning of the year, a report from the New York Times from late September, right at the tail-end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, suggests that Ukraine had only gained about 230 square kilometers (89 square miles) of territory back from Russia.

"We wanted faster results. From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact," Zelensky admitted.

Zelensky went on to blame his country's failure on Ukraine not getting all of the weapons it was seeking from its Western allies quickly enough. He added that limits in the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also precluded it from conducting bigger and more decisive advances.

"There is not enough power to achieve the desired results faster. But this does not mean that we should give up, that we have to surrender," said Zelensky. "We are confident in our actions. We fight for what is ours."

"We are not backing down," he added, claiming that his country is persevering despite being in conflict with "the second [best] army in the world."

Furthermore, Zelensky claims that Ukraine has successfully diminished the strength of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, following drone and missile attacks that were able to penetrate Russian air defenses in Crimea, which Ukraine claims as part of its sovereign territory.

Coming winter to mark "new phase" in conflict with Russia
...

[LTU_btc]

but on the other there's indirect coverage of how this Ukrainian was safely living in Moscow without any issues and enjoying his life until this and it's SBU that's now trying to make sure that Ukrainians (dissidents) don't feel safe in Russia anymore   anyone knows of any openly Jewish dissidents living happily in Berlin under Nazis?

Ukrainian safely living in Moscow - only his remaining connection with Ukraine was citizenship. And considering his views, there was no reason to feel unsafe in Moscow. But I wouldn't deny possibilty that he wasn't eliminated by Ukraine and it was done by someone in Russia, though, it's not very likely. Looking at reaction after Kiva death in Russian media, he wasn't loved much in Russia too, mostly because of his past. He already become traitor in Ukraine when he changed views from far-right nationalist to completely pro Russian. So, it's possible that he wouldn't be that loyal to Russia if someone would offer him more money.

Are you having mental wet dreams again? This is doubly funny, considering that Ukraine literally lost half of its combat aircraft fleet in just a couple of months (after Russia successfully modernized its radar reconnaissance aircraft), and the issue of transferring F16 fighters to Ukraine was put on pause after the victory in the Netherlands of the far-right opponent of military aid to Ukraine.

Didn't Russia destroyed most of Ukraine's aircrafts in first days of invasion. Considering that, Ukraine is doing not so bad in the air. And Netherlands, yeah, far-right party won elections, but so far it doesn't means anything. They have 37 seat in parliament, 76 is needed for majority, so they still have to make coalition. And other 2 parties which got most of votes rejected offer to join it.

[tvbcof]

  Scott Ritter: Seymour Hersh source on Russia-Ukraine negotiations is far from reality
  https://www.bitchute.com/video/WMHZmls04n6r/

Not so sure, Scott.  I predicted a few weeks into this thing that Russia would probably leave Odessa and Kharkiv alone which to this day seems to be holding.

I maintain that there is a very good possibility that Russia is A) every bit as much under the hidden hand of the small-hats as is the U.S. and friends in NATO, and B) working as much with as against NATO in a program to depopulate the area.  From day one the West simply dribbled out weapon in quantities not sufficient to hurt the Russian military machine a lot.  Hell, Russia proper never even had to do any real offensive fighting until after Bakmud (and even afterward not a lot) since contractors did most of the dying.  (10/1-ish kill ratio seems to be real, but does it make any military sense?  Scott?)  Economically and on the world stage, Russia goes from strength to strength so the 'SMO' has been a giant gift to them.  And a huge gift to the insiders both in Ukraine and in the West who've made bank selling off the weapons which theoretical were to have gone to the front among other schemes.

The end-game would be the so-called 'Russians' donating/selling/gifting/granting many of the parts of Ukraine that the Russian meat-puppet boys have already won, minus the parts they are going to apportion to Poland or make a possible rump Ukrainian state in N and W Swastikistan, over to the 'heavenly Jerusalem' project.  If things play out in Israel as they very possibly could, the more Ashkanizi-ish of the Israelis could be needing a new homeland, and why not right back in the 'pale of settlement' where they came from?  The Sephardim?  Well, their God demands his sacrifices from time to time.

What an amazing coincidence was the timing between the freeing up of highly fertile pale-of-settlement lands and the 40-beheaded-babies which caused misfortune in the barren wasteland shit-hole known to the mouthbreather religious classes as the 'promised land'.

[Branko]

Except Paxmao and few Ukrainian bots here, even Ukrainians see the truth

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/12/7/7431958/

"I’d even go so far as to say that this isn’t even a stalemate on the chessboard now: we’re on the point of losing the war.
 I believe that our people are mature enough to be told the truth. And this truth needs to come from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief."

Ukrainian telegram channel
https://t.me/legitimniy/16817


"Everyone realized that now Ukraine cannot win.  The offensives have failed, equipment reserves have thinned out, the shortage of ammunition has worsened,
public disappointment is off the charts, and no one wants to fight.

 Now the populists from the Office of the President are realizing that it is necessary to pump up the defense case, but it will be difficult to package this into “victory,”
 but they are trying, promising people fairy tales again.  But everyone soberly understands that from the risk point of view, Ukraine’s future looks like this:
 - gradual loss of territories
 - gradual collapse of defense
 - increased internal squabbling
 - financial crisis
 - social crisis
 - disappointment
 - banking crisis
 - energy and fuel crisis
 - bankruptcy of many farmers, carriers, etc.
 - poverty
 - increase in mortality
 - increased repression as Zelensky tries to retain power
 The list goes on, but there is nothing good.  Zelensky chose slow and painful death/collapse/chaos for Ukraine.
 But he could have changed the course of events many times and prevented literally everything that the Ukrainians are now reaping.  "

[paxmao]

The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
 
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.

Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.

[Branko]

The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
 
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.

Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.

So limited that it depleted 155mm rounds worldwide, while many countries will need years to replenish ATGMs

Urals oil is at $56 and it was nowhere near $80 for a while

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

just following global oil market

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

[paxmao]

The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
 
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.

Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.

So limited that it depleted 155mm rounds worldwide, while many countries will need years to replenish ATGMs

Urals oil is at $56 and it was nowhere near $80 for a while

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

just following global oil market

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

155mm is not "depleted worldwide", only the excess stocks have been sent to Ukraine, while most countries keep their strategic stock pretty much intact. The US has not passed to Ukraine anything they cannot spare without hindering their ability to wage two significant wars. South Korea has stocks of unknown depth. Perhaps only Europe is doing more of an effort.

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

Yep, there is a dip for sure. Just follow URAL oil, not the general commodity chart.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

[Branko]

155mm is not "depleted worldwide", only the excess stocks have been sent to Ukraine, while most countries keep their strategic stock pretty much intact. The US has not passed to Ukraine anything they cannot spare without hindering their ability to wage two significant wars. South Korea has stocks of unknown depth. Perhaps only Europe is doing more of an effort.

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

Yep, there is a dip for sure. Just follow URAL oil, not the general commodity chart.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

Sometimes, unintentionally, even politicians say the truth

https://nypost.com/2023/07/09/biden-lets-slip-during-interview-us-low-on-artillery-ammunition-rounds-as-it-tries-to-aid-ukraine/

...and, you reposted my link to prove I'm wrong? On both your and mine (same) link current price is $56, not $50, and last time it was $80
was 2 months ago, not yesterday as you suggested

[tvbcof]

Cool one.  Glad I wasn't around!

  Insane Explosion:🔥Russian T-55 Kamikaze tank was packed full of explosives then sent to AFU dugout
  https://www.bitchute.com/video/5qRJEXgai0Ow/

[paxmao]

155mm is not "depleted worldwide", only the excess stocks have been sent to Ukraine, while most countries keep their strategic stock pretty much intact. The US has not passed to Ukraine anything they cannot spare without hindering their ability to wage two significant wars. South Korea has stocks of unknown depth. Perhaps only Europe is doing more of an effort.

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

Yep, there is a dip for sure. Just follow URAL oil, not the general commodity chart.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

Sometimes, unintentionally, even politicians say the truth

https://nypost.com/2023/07/09/biden-lets-slip-during-interview-us-low-on-artillery-ammunition-rounds-as-it-tries-to-aid-ukraine/

...and, you reposted my link to prove I'm wrong? On both your and mine (same) link current price is $56, not $50, and last time it was $80
was 2 months ago, not yesterday as you suggested

Whatever you say on oil.

On being "low on ammo", I have not heard the declaration, but you must understand what being "low" means in the context of the US army. They simply cannot sleep if they know that they could not invade Iran and China, while defending from Ruzzia at the same time in a month. All the US army is an overkill of stores, technologies, personnel and supply chains.

And yet still, this is not what you said - "stocks globally low" is not "US stocks low".

Edited to add: It seems that Australia may be transfering quite a few F-18 planes to Ukraine. A bit of an old beast, but carries a lot of payload.

[be.open]

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

A really good target is 85,000 rounds per month, which the US plans to achieve within five years. In other words, the US is five years behind Russia in artillery shell production because Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now. Try to learn to live with this thought - Russia produces approximately the same amount of artillery shells as all the countries of the collective West combined.

[paxmao]

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

A really good target is 85,000 rounds per month, which the US plans to achieve within five years. In other words, the US is five years behind Russia in artillery shell production because Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now. Try to learn to live with this thought - Russia produces approximately the same amount of artillery shells as all the countries of the collective West combined.

I could almost believe you... if it weren't for that little visit to North Korea by your Chief Psychopath asking the very powerful kingdom, of roughly 25 million people to please supply shells so that the Ruzzian slave army could keep on pushing. Things do not collapse until they collapse, so keep on banking on "global attrition of shells" it may be the only thing you have left to hope for.

[be.open]

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

A really good target is 85,000 rounds per month, which the US plans to achieve within five years. In other words, the US is five years behind Russia in artillery shell production because Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now. Try to learn to live with this thought - Russia produces approximately the same amount of artillery shells as all the countries of the collective West combined.

I could almost believe you... if it weren't for that little visit to North Korea by your Chief Psychopath asking the very powerful kingdom, of roughly 25 million people to please supply shells so that the Ruzzian slave army could keep on pushing. Things do not collapse until they collapse, so keep on banking on "global attrition of shells" it may be the only thing you have left to hope for.

This is a high-intensity military conflict, Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily, and Ukraine about 5,000 artillery shells per day. I hope you have not yet lost the ability to do basic arithmetic in order to independently balance daily spending and monthly production.

[BADecker]

^^^ Good point.

But the big point is that with Russia's better general accuracy, they are doing more than 4x the damage on Ukraine.

However, when you are sweeping the floor with a broom, the last little bit is often the hardest. For example, it's easy to sweep up the big piles of dirt. But if you want to get every, tiny speck of dirt, you need to use a wet mop to mop it all up.

Russia is at the wet mop stage with Ukraine, even though they haven't started mopping, yet.

[paxmao]

It seems that Ukraine has stopped in a quite expedite and violent way the Ruzzian attempt to attack the Krinki bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. One could say that the drone operators of Ukraine basically "work from home". The degree of surveillance and potential to destroy anything in 20 km of Kherson is astonishing - nothing moves without Ukraine knowing. The only exception is the air launched heavy bombs, which are inaccurate but in large quantities so occasionally they hit something of value.

Other bits of the front have also some good news, but it changes from day to day, .... stalemate.#

Oh, Be.open you are going to like the price levels in your country... 6% inflation, 3% growth... If you cannot do the math I will for you: Ruzzia is effectively shrinking a 3%.

[BADecker]

The Ukraine war is in the sidelines... at least for Russia as she expands worldwide... while Ukraine declines with every step she takes.